Usdjpyshort
Usdjpy signal 149.00
USD/JPY defends 149.00, stalling its retracement from the highest level since mid-August at 149.36. The BoJ rate hikes uncertainty and a generally positive risk tone cap gains for the safe-haven Japanese Yen while traders look to the US CPI data for fresh impetus.
Confirm signal
Sell USD/JPY Channel BreakoutThe USD/JPY pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 143.77, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 142.13
2nd Support – 141.26
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 144.60. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
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USD/JPY Short Setup: 30-Minute ChartI'm looking at a potential short position on USD/JPY based on the current price action and market structure.
Entry on Retracement: 143.750 after the recent breakdown of the ascending trendline.
Stop Loss (SL): 144.000 (25 pips).
Take Profit (TP): I'm targeting multiple TPs along the way for scaling out of the position:
TP 1: 143.500 (+18.9 pips) – A conservative first target to lock in some early profits.
TP 2: 143.200 (+48.9 pips) – Close to the previous support, scaling out of a portion of the trade.
TP 3: 142.800 (+88.9 pips) – A key support level based on historical price action.
TP 4: 142.300 (+138.9 pips) – Next significant support zone.
TP 5: 141.800 (+188.9 pips) – Final target at a major psychological level.
The idea here is to capture the downward move following a potential retracement into resistance near 143.750, which aligns with previous structure. The overall bearish sentiment could drive prices lower toward the major target areas.
USDJPY Short - A Bearish Setup in the Making?As we dive into the USDJPY chart, I'm seeing several key technical signals that suggest a potential move to the downside. Let’s break it down step by step:
Weekly Timeframe: A Crucial Swing High
First, we zoom out to the weekly chart, where we can observe that USDJPY is currently within a strong swing that recently broke a prior high. This is a crucial moment, as we often see a retest of the upper range of such a swing before the market decides its next move. Will it push higher, or are we preparing for a pullback? I’m leaning towards the latter.
Daily Timeframe: Triple Failures at the High
Dropping down to the daily, the story unfolds further. We’ve seen two previous attempts to break the current daily swing high, only for the market to flush down on this third attempt. This is my first major bearish signal, as failure to maintain momentum often precedes a reversal.
4-Hour Timeframe: No Support in the Pump
On the 4-hour chart, things get even more interesting. I’m not seeing the kind of ladder formation that typically supports sustained pushes to the upside. Instead, the price action looks choppy, lacking the structure that would indicate buyers are in full control. This adds weight to the bearish case.
Weak Stop-Loss Hunt: A Lackluster Liquidity Grab
One more point to consider is the recent liquidity grab (or stop-loss hunt) on the 4-hour chart. While these wicks usually indicate a shakeout of weak hands, this one feels weak, more like a failed attempt to trap traders in the wrong direction. In my experience, when the liquidity grab doesn’t pack a punch, it often signals the market's lack of commitment to push higher.
Timing is Key: The Tuesday Top Pattern
Lastly, an interesting observation – USDJPY has a tendency to form local tops on Tuesdays, a pattern I’ve noticed over time. While this isn't a concrete rule, it’s an intriguing confirmation of the broader bearish setup we’re seeing here.
Fundamental Analysis: Why the USDJPY Could Dump
Fundamentally, USDJPY could be under pressure due to the divergence in monetary policy between the US and Japan. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) remains ultra-dovish, but there are growing signs of internal pressure to shift toward more normalization in policy, particularly with inflation running higher than expected. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve has signaled that it may pause or slow its rate hikes as US economic growth moderates. This narrowing of the policy gap could weaken the dollar against the yen, especially if we start seeing signs of a BoJ shift or weaker-than-expected US data in upcoming releases.
Furthermore, concerns over global growth and risk sentiment could lead to a stronger yen as a safe-haven asset. If the stock market falters, capital tends to flow back into the yen, exacerbating the potential for a USDJPY decline.
Conclusion: Eyeing the Lower Range
All things considered, USDJPY looks poised for a move lower. A retest of the lower range of the current daily swing seems likely before any potential attempt to push back to the upside. Understanding swing highs and lows and their respective ranges is a key tool in this analysis. Let’s see how the price action plays out in the coming sessions.
usdjpy going downtrend.my bias is short.ERRANTE:USDJPY
entry : 142.719
stop loss : 142.846
take profit : 142.18
i have adjusted my stop loss and take profit according to my spread size. this is not an advice i am just giving out a set up which i am gonna take, do your own research before you take any trade.trade set up will be invalidated if price touches tp before hitting the entry point.entry point has not been activated yet.
#USDJPY 1HUSDJPY (US Dollar / Japanese Yen)
Timeframe: 1-Hour (1H)
Pattern: Rising Wedge
A rising wedge pattern has developed on the 1-hour chart of USDJPY. This pattern is formed by two upward-sloping trendlines that converge as the price continues to make higher highs and higher lows. While the price is trending upward, the narrowing wedge suggests that bullish momentum is weakening, typically signaling a potential reversal.
The rising wedge is considered a bearish pattern, as it often leads to a downside breakout once the price breaks below the lower trendline.
Forecast: Sell
Given the current formation, the forecast recommends a selling opportunity. The price is likely to break down from the rising wedge, leading to a potential reversal and a decline in the pair's value. A confirmed breakdown below the lower boundary of the wedge would signal further bearish momentum.
Technical Outlook:
Resistance Level: The upper boundary of the wedge, where buying pressure could weaken.
Support Level: The lower boundary, where a breakout would trigger a selling opportunity.
Key Levels to Watch: A break below the wedge’s support line would reinforce the bearish forecast, signaling a potential downward move.
Traders should look for confirmation through bearish candlestick patterns or increased selling volume to validate their short positions.
Monitor for key economic indicators, particularly US dollar movements influenced by Federal Reserve policies or safe-haven demand for the Japanese yen, which could impact this pair’s direction.
UsdJpy moving down on retracement.Looking for Impulse Down.
UsdJpy break out TL and will start to move down soon on retracement. Make sure you have your own rules on RR and follow them. This is just a trading idea to help you gain better knowledge. If you have any question ask me in comments.
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Wave Trader Pro
USD/JPY Short Setup - 1:4.8 RRI have entered a short on USD/JPY after price broke below a key ascending trendline on the 1H chart. Entered at 143.658 with a Stop Loss set at 144.520 (-89 pips risk).
Target Levels:
TP1: 142.189 (+148 pips) - Moving SL to break even once this is hit.
TP2: 141.319 (+235 pips)
TP3: 139.579 (+407 pips)
This setup offers a solid risk-to-reward ratio, with multiple profit targets for a gradual exit.
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USDJPY - no sign of turning around at the moment💵USDJPY ANALYSIS 💸
- The Yen is still recovering very strongly since the USD/JPY pair fell to its lowest level in nearly 40 years at 141.95.
- The recovery is mainly supported by many interventions of the Japanese Government. Especially the support from the narrowing of the interest rate gap between Japan and the United States.
- The market is expecting the Fed to cut interest rates on Wednesday, while the BOJ will likely keep the current interest rate unchanged.
📌 TECHNICAL
- On the daily candlestick chart of USDJPY (D1), the downtrend from the price channel (a) continues and the pressure from Ema21 acts as the main resistance.
- USD/JPY has shown little reaction to the 0.382% Fibonacci extension level for now, which could be considered as the nearest technical support.
- Once USD/JPY is sold below 139.420, it will have a more bearish outlook towards 137.046 in the short term, which is the price point of the 0.50% Fibonacci extension level.
- As long as USD/JPY remains within the price channel (a) and below the 21-day EMA, the bearish bias will remain dominant, and the notable technical points for the bearish trend are listed below.
✔️ Support: 139.420 – 137.046
✔️ Resistance: 141.531 – 142.380
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USDJPY / Bearish trend toward 138.470USDJPY Analyze
The overall trend remains bearish as long as the price stays below 141.020, with downside targets at 138.470 and potentially 137.450.
A corrective move toward the pivot line at 141.028 is possible before the bearish trend resumes. However, if the price stabilizes above 142.100 with a 4-hour candle close, a bullish move of 141.030 extends toward 143.680.
In general, if the CPI is released as expected around 2.5%, this would support a bearish trend for USD/JPY.
Key Levels:
Pivot Line: 140.230
Resistance Levels: 141.02, 142.10, 142.55
Support Levels: 138.470, 137.440, 136.500
Expected Range: 141.020 - 138.460
Trend: Bearish while below 141.03
previous idea:
UJ SELL idea update - STILL LOWER POSSIBLE Weekly Wave + SMC In this extension of the original UJ Sell idea with Targets below, we back out to a weekly and look at a possible Running Flat (for Wave Traders) - we go over symmetry in the markets and aggressive corrections on weekly.
Doc will show analysis for confluence and how we have targets still lower. Maybe don't 'buy the bottom yet'!!
Finally a good example of lower timeframe trendline failure and how to avoid 'getting COOKED'
Your trend is heading into a higher TF "BLOCKER" - its like a small car driving up to and then sitting on a train track.. you will get CRUSHED.
Like and Boost this idea if you get anything from it and want me to do more of these!
Happy Trading
-- Doc