USDJPY → Trade Analysis | SELL SetupYou can expect a reaction in the direction of selling from the specified resistance zone
USDJPY moving higher as it tests the strong resistance level..
We expect a bearish move from the confluence zone.
Hello Traders, here is the full analysis.
I think we can soon see more fall from this range! GOOD LUCK! Great SELL opportunity USDJPY
I still did my best and this is the most likely count for me at the moment.
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Usdjpylong
Japanese Yen dropped to its lowest level in nearly 4 decadesAll data supports LONG usdjpy
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According to Nikkei, till now, Japanese institutional traders have now no longer poured capital into overseas markets on any such big scale. Banks offered simplest a internet 220.7 billion yen of overseas property withinside the first 1/2 of of this 12 months. Meanwhile, pension price range bought a internet of 9.forty three trillion yen withinside the identical period.
The using pressure using the float of cash into foreign places property is the organization of retail traders who're changing their financial savings into investments to deal with inflation. Core CPI in Japan has always multiplied extra than 2% every month given that fall 2022. May CPI multiplied 2.1%, better than the BOJ`s goal of 2%.
Currently, only a few monetary merchandise in Japan generate returns better than 2%. One-12 months deposits of as a minimum three million yen had hobby costs of simply beneathneath 0.1% in June. Japanese authorities bonds bought to retail traders had hobby costs of much less than 1% this month. The predicted dividend yield of Japanese shares in keeping with the Nikkei Stock Average is simplest 1.75%, nevertheless decrease than inflation.
“Investment cash has a tendency to float to Western nations and elsewhere, in which monetary and company boom expectancies are high,” stated Soichiro Tateishi, an economist on the Japan Research Institute.
When Japanese traders purchase shares or bonds denominated in USD via mutual price range with out a foreign money hedging strategy, they'll ought to promote yen to shop for USD. Accordingly, multiplied funding sports via NISA positioned even extra strain at the yen. Investors chickening out capital will assist the yen appreciate. However, NISA is a software primarily based totally on lengthy-time period investments, so the yen will now no longer be capable of get hold of momentum from here.
Meanwhile, Japan's change deficit has lengthy been taken into consideration a structural issue inflicting the yen to fall. As an electricity importer, Japan has visible a change deficit for the reason that 2011 earthquake and tsunami, which pressured the u . s . to import extra electricity because of the closure of nuclear strength plants.
From January to May 2024, Japan's change deficit stood at three.forty five trillion yen. This discern will boom to three.eighty three trillion yen while facts via mid-June are included.
Some professionals have warned approximately the capital flight of retail traders. Meanwhile, the yen is buying and selling at a hundred and sixty for 1 USD, whilst at the start of the 12 months it became 140. One manner to show the scenario round is to boom the splendor of the Japanese inventory marketplace and different monetary merchandise.
According to Shingo Ide, leader monetary engineer at NLI Research Institute, Japanese businesses “are beginning to make efforts to enhance profitability and capital efficiency.”
However, Nikkei stated, any essential exalternate to the contemporary fashion will take a protracted time.
USD/JPY - Bullish Trend ContinuationThis morning, the focus is on the Dollar-Yen pair. The bullish trend is evident across all timeframes. Yesterday, we observed a strong break of the reversal structure at 161.269 after reaching a momentum high of 161.95. This break is crucial for the continuation of the bullish trend. Following the break, a bullish pattern has formed, and the price has moved into the Fibonacci buy zones of the initial move. Given this setup, the high probability action is to buy or do nothing above 161.57.
Stop Loss: 161.14
Target 1: 162.35
Always think in probabilities.
Mega Analysis on USDJPY outrageous Levels so this analysis is based on high time frame weekly
1) so i identified a CUP & HANDLE pattern, the range for the cup size is from 127.50 to 151.946
2) Handle range from 140.188 to 151.946
so the target projected based on size of pattern
1st target = 163.513
2nd target = 176.392
last three weeks has a price action of three soldiers which has left behind bullish fvg at 159.778 and 158.258
so, if you dont have any position this area could be offer fair value and if you already holding some position then we can trail the stop loss just below the fvg we have marked
note - market is based on buyer and seller and ups and downs so short term pullbacks are considerable
leave your comment on my analysis and lets have trading related deep talks !!
#USDJPY: Possible Second Buy Entry Worth up to +800 pips! Dear Traders,
Our first entry turn out to be in our favour and we expect price to rise even higher and higher. USD dominance over JPY is significant and in no soon time, we can expect BOJ to change any policies or intervene in the market. We may see some correction in the market but it is very unlikely that it will be reversal.
Good luck and trade safe!
Team Setupsfx
May JOLTs Moderately Surprise to the UpsideAccording to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, the May Job openings report surprised to the upside, rising by 8.14 million (4.9%), up from April’s downwardly revised print of 7.92 million (4.8%), a three-year low. As per the Reuters poll, recent data surpassed the market's median estimate of 7.91 million and came within striking distance of the upper estimate range of 8.30 million, sparking a short-term bid in the dollar.
Job openings in state and local education increased by +117,000; a sizable jump in job openings in the manufacturing sector was also seen, particularly durable goods, up +97,000, with a fall in job openings in accommodation and food services, down nearly -150,000.
Hiring ticked higher in the month of May, up 5.76 million, or 3.6% from April’s reading of 5.62 million, or 3.5%.
The quits rate, which assesses US workers who voluntarily left their current employment, remained at 2.2% for a seventh consecutive month, or 3.5 million. A higher quits rate can indicate confidence in the economy, while fewer resignations suggest less confidence in one's ability to seek employment.
Regarding layoffs and discharges – involuntarily separated from employment initiated by the employer rather than the employee – job openings remained unchanged at 1.0% for a third consecutive month, or 1.7 million.
We have seen a decline in both job openings and quits since peaking at just north of 12 million in early March 2022, emphasising a cooling economic landscape. Today’s release reflects resilience in the labour market, with the increase in job openings indicating demand for workers.
Market Reaction
The US Dollar Index witnessed a moderate bid in the immediate aftermath of the release, reaching a high of 105.90. US Treasury yields also spiked higher, with spot gold (XAU/USD) taking a hit and dropping to within close proximity of daily lows, and US equities all but overlooked the print.
USD/JPY In Sight
The US dollar (USD) has been trading at its most substantial level versus the Japanese yen (JPY) since the 1980s, and, interestingly, shows no signs of slowing down. Since early May, the USD/JPY has rallied six weeks out of eight, showcasing its robustness. Year to date, the pairing is up an eye-watering +15%.
Demand for the USD can be attributed to a revival in US Treasury yields and major US equity indices circling record highs. Further, the Fed is one of the more hawkish central banks in the G10 pack at the moment, and BoJ officials have yet to intervene in the market. Interestingly, Vanguard recently commented that there is a risk of the USD/JPY rising to ¥170 should the BoJ fail to intervene.
Short-term price action on the H1 timeframe is seen treading water just north of trendline support, extended from the low of ¥155.72, which happens to converge with a ‘local’ potential descending support line, taken from the high of ¥161.28, as well as the 50-hour simple moving average, trading at ¥161.26, and a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement ratio from ¥161.17. Chart pattern enthusiasts may also acknowledge the recent double-top pattern (¥161.74) completion, found after the H1 close below the black dashed line, drawn from the low of ¥161.41. Should price go on and hit the double-top pattern’s take-profit target at ¥161.07, this could deliver an additional floor of support.
Tomorrow, we will see the latest ADP non-farm employment change report and the weekly jobless claims numbers, followed up with Friday’s government non-farm employment change print.
Japan's efforts to protect the yen exchange rate fell into vain"ALL THE PROBLEM IS WITH THE FED"
On Wednesday`s buying and selling consultation, the yen fell to 160.88 yen for 1 USD, the bottom degree due to the fact that 1986. Early this morning (June 27) withinside the Asian marketplace, the yen rebounded slightly. 160.sixty three yen to at least one USD.
The yen has depreciated approximately 2% this June and fallen 12% due to the fact that the start of the yr as compared to the USD, withinside the context of a regular growth withinside the USD alternate price due to the fact expectancies approximately whilst the Fed will begin decreasing hobby prices are constantly driven back. .
The Dollar Index, which measures the power of the USD in opposition to a basket of six different predominant currencies, has accelerated 1.25% this month and is up 4.sixty three% due to the fact that the start of the yr - consistent with facts from MarketWatch. On Wednesday consultation, Dollar Index handed 106 points, the very best in 2 months.
The predominant motive of the yen devaluation as compared to the USD is the hobby price distinction among americaA and Japan. The Fed's short-time period hobby price is five.25-five.five% and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is 0-0.1%, making the yen an appealing investment foreign money. in hobby price differential transactions (bring trade).
According to Bloomberg, international traders recognize that the yen will face downward stress so long as USD hobby prices stay high. In the worldwide foreign money marketplace with a transaction fee of 7.five trillion USD according to day, the non-stop devaluation of the yen is a clearer proof of US affect withinside the economic sector.
“The hassle is all with the Fed. Higher and longer hobby prices withinside the US are attracting cash to americaA and making the USD robust," stated leader bond funding strategist of NatAlliance Securities LLC, Mr. Andrew Brenner. Mr. Brenner stated that for Japan, that is a challenge.
Wednesday's buying and selling consultation completely contemplated America's dominant function in international economic markets. The Dollar Index's 0.4% growth this consultation positioned downward stress on nearly all different currencies withinside the world. The US inventory marketplace is on course to finish some other area of robust gains, whilst the Ministry of Finance without difficulty bought all 70 billion USD of Treasury bonds withinside the public sale at the equal day.
For the yen, the tale is absolutely different. At an alternate price of almost 161 yen to at least one USD, the foreign money has depreciated past the factor in which Japanese government intervened withinside the forex marketplace in past due April and early May. This manner efforts Spending greater than 60 billion USD to defend Tokyo's yen alternate price has "failed", however happily it handiest bogged down the price of devaluation of the yen.
Next move for USD/JPY 164.712Bullish Scenario:
If the price retraces and finds support around 160.251, it could bounce back up, continuing the uptrend towards the 164.712 target.
Confirmation of the uptrend would be a bounce off the 100-period SMA (currently around 157.298) and maintaining above the 160.251 support level.
Bearish Scenario:
If the price fails to hold above the 160.251 support level and breaks below the 100-period SMA, it could indicate a deeper correction towards the 155.669 level (200-period SMA).
Breaking below the 155.669 level would suggest a reversal of the current uptrend.
Key Factors to Watch:
Support and Resistance Levels: Watch how the price interacts with the 160.251 support level and the 164.712 resistance level.
Moving Averages: Keep an eye on the 100-period and 200-period SMAs for dynamic support and resistance.
Volume: Increased volume on a breakout above 164.712 or a breakdown below 160.251 can confirm the direction of the next major move.
Fundamental News: Economic data, central bank policies, and geopolitical events can significantly impact the USD/JPY pair.
USDJPY: 800+ Pips Buying Opportunity! Swing Trading Dear Traders,
Hope you are doing great, price of USDJPY remain tricky. Previously, we had anticipated that price will drop heavily, however, due to weak Japanese yen price remain bullish as it was before. We still currently in a correction zone, where we can expect price to drop slightly lower to our area of entry and then we can see a strong buyers liquidity kicking in the market.
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Team Setupsfx_
USD-JPYThe chart for USD/JPY on a daily timeframe shows a strong bullish trend, supported by an upward trendline, with the current price at approximately 160.016 JPY. A significant "Strong Resistance Level" is identified around 160.209 JPY, where the price has previously encountered selling pressure.
The chart suggests a potential breakout above this resistance level. The projected price movement, indicated by a yellow arrow, shows that after facing some initial resistance, the price might briefly pull back to the trendline before continuing its upward trajectory. This suggests a bullish outlook if the price successfully breaks above 160.209 JPY.
Historical support is marked around 151.953 JPY, which has previously provided a solid foundation for upward movements. The trendline highlighted in red signifies consistent support, with the price bouncing off it multiple times, indicating its reliability.
In summary, the chart indicates a bullish outlook for USD/JPY, supported by the upward trendline and strong support around 151.953 JPY. The key resistance level to watch is 160.209 JPY. A successful breakout above this level could lead to further bullish momentum. Traders should monitor the trendline support to confirm the continuation of the upward trend and ensure the trendline holds to validate the bullish scenario.
USDJPY Technical Analysis and Trade IdeaAnalyzing the USDJPY on the daily chart reveals a clear bullish trend. The pair is currently testing a significant resistance level. Although I'm considering a long position, I won't enter at this point. Instead, I’m looking for a pullback. On the 30-minute chart, there’s a noticeable bullish imbalance and an order block just below the current price. My ideal entry would be a retracement to the 50-61.8% Fibonacci level, which aligns with these areas. In the accompanying video, we delve into the trend, market structure, price action, and other crucial technical analysis elements. Remember, this video is purely educational and not financial advice.
USDJPY ( NEW HISTORICAL PEAK ) ( 1D )USDJPY
HELLO TRADERS
for this week , the price attempt to create a new historical peaks
ENTRY POINT : the price is under bullish trend at 158.253 , the last week the price stable in buy zone , for this week it continues trade in buy zone and will attempt to create a new historical peaks , if breaking the entry point for any reason by open candle 1D below 158.253 active sell zone
ACTIVE BUY ZONE : for this week , if the price stable at 158.253 active buy zone , the price will attempt to reach resistance point 160.196 and 161.816 , it will be the creations of new historical peaks
ACTIVE SELL ZONE : if the price breaking entry point at 158.253 for any reason active sell zone , the price by open candle 1D below entry point reach a155.592 and 154.273 , stable this level reach 151.727
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USDJPY - Look for a long !!Hello traders!
‼️ This is my perspective on USDJPY.
Technical analysis: Here we are in a bullish market structure from 4H timeframe perspective, so I look only for long position. I want price to make a retracement to fill the imbalance lower and then to reject from bullish order block.
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USDJPY - Expect retracement !!Hello traders!
‼️ This is my perspective on USDJPY.
Technical analysis: Here we are in a bullish market structure from 4H timeframe perspective, so I look only for long position. For now I expect price to make a retracement to fill that huge imbalance lower and then to reject from bullish order block
Fundamental news: Tomorrow (GMT+3) we have important news in USA, we will see results of CPI and Interest Rate. As well on Friday we will have news regarding Interest Rate in Japan. Pay attention to the result in order to validate the analysis.
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USDJPY TO 160+ 12H CHARTI have USDJPY going to 160 and beyond..... price may be a little choppy until then but I am Long on this pair and I've been using every dip (when price takes bearish dive) as a buying opportunity. I can see price testing the previous highs of 157.844 (yellow level) and eventually breaking and closing above it, once this level of previous resistance (157.844) is then used as support; that will act as yet another form of confirmation that price in en'route the 160 level.
USDJPY - Expect bearish price action !!Hello traders!
‼️ This is my perspective on USDJPY.
Technical analysis: Here we are in a bearish market structure from 4H timeframe perspective, so I look only for short position. I expect bearish price action as price filled that huge imbalance and now could reject from bearish order block.
Fundamental news: On Friday (GMT+3) we have NFP day. News with high impact USD, so pay attention to the results in order to validate the analysis.
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