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💡 USDJPY : Waiting for recoveryThe Bank of Japan has expanded the scope for adjusting short-term interest rates and has increased its inflation target for fiscal year 2024 to 2.8%. This means Japan's inflation will exceed the 2% target for three consecutive years and is closer to achieving sustainable price stability. If the Bank of Japan (BOJ) wants to have a clearer view of wage increases next year before making a decision on adjusting negative interest rates, it may need to postpone this decision until April/ 2024 or even longer. Regarding developments in the foreign exchange market, we see USD/JPY falling sharply after the release of non-farm payroll data in the US and it is currently running below the 48-hour moving average on the H4 chart. However, it appears the price has found support near 149.00. If inflation in Japan fails to meet expectations, it is likely that the US dollar will continue to recover against the Japanese Yen.
Long
by Stone_Haven
BluetonaFX - USDJPY Approaching Trendline Support BreakHi Traders! Due to the weak NFP jobs data last Friday, there is further pressure on the US dollar. USDJPY is back under 150 and trading with bearish momentum.   Price Action 📊 The market's price action on the 2H chart is currently bearish. The market broke below the 20 EMA, failed to break back above in the re-test, and is approaching the trendline support with potential for a break and close below the trendline to continue pushing down. Fundamental Analysis 📰 There were weak US major figures recently posted, with weaker than expected PMI figures and Non-Farm jobs data. The Fed also failed to commit to further interest rate hikes, which has left traders nervous about the US dollar. Support 📉 149.273: TRENDLINE SUPPORT 148.805: MONTHLY LOW Resistance 📈 149.736: PREVIOUS DAY'S HIGH 149.817: 20 EMA Risk ⚠️ No more than 2% of your capital. Reward 💰 At least 4% of your capital. Please make sure to click on the like/boost button 🚀 as your support greatly helps. Trade safely and responsibly. BluetonaFX
Short
by BluetonaFX
1
USDJPY Take off??USDJPY, the double bottom pattern, might indicate a reversal of the previous downward trend. Traders often use the distance between the lowest low of the pattern and the resistance line to estimate a potential price target. Based on this pattern, and major direction of trend, a projected target of 151 might be feasible. However, it's essential to apply technical analysis and consider other indicators to confirm the pattern and potential price target before making trading decisions.
Long
by ForexWizard01
JPY plummeted with bad newsThe Bank of Japan adjusted monetary policy, the Yen suddenly plummeted According to results from the Bank of Japan's two-day meeting, the bank's Policy Committee allowed 10-year bond yields to exceed 1%, considering this level as an upper threshold instead of a ceiling. hard and remove the commitment to protect this ceiling by buying bonds with unlimited volume. Short-term interest rates are set at -0.1%, while 10-year bond yields are at around 0% under yield curve control, as is the current policy. The above decision shows that rising global bond yields and persistently high inflation are making it more difficult for the Bank of Japan to maintain its yield curve control policy.
Long
by D-Venn
1
USDJPY possible buy area!Examining the technical analysis of USDJPY on the daily chart, we observe a recent rejection at the upper boundary of an uptrend channel. As a result, there is a reasonable expectation that USDJPY could experience a pullback, potentially finding support at around 150.36 or even within the ascending channel at 149.50. It's conceivable that this correction may pave the way for an upward move, possibly targeting 152.50 in the near future. What are your insights on this analysis? Do you share a similar perspective?
Long
by ForexWizard01
USDJPY: The Japanese Yen continues to fall sharply as Tokyo With the EUR/JPY exchange rate at 160.80, the 2008 peak, and the USD/JPY exchange rate at 150.75, the yen is continuing its downward spiral to a new low throughout the day. This occurred when Tokyo dispelled any rumors that it was still protecting the price by confirming that it did not interfere in the currency markets in October. The BOJ doesn't seem to be planning to become involved in the yen today, therefore it looks like the currency will perform as expected. Tokyo's attempts to defend its currency could backfire given all of the BOJ's recent dovish actions.
Short
by TrategySherpa
USDJPY: Yen appreciates ahead of BOJ meetingWith the yen weaker than it was last week when it reached a one-year high of 150.78, USD/JPY dropped 0.1% to 149.50. The focus will be on the BOJ meeting's conclusion on Tuesday, when it is anticipated that the central bank would make additional announcements regarding its policy to manage the yield curve. High rates of inflation and the sharp fall in the value of the Yen are problems facing this product. A revival of Japanese consumer inflation is indicated by recent data, and this could lead the Bank of Japan to announce plans to tighten its incredibly lax policy.
Long
by TrategySherpa
USDJPY: Asian foreign exchange little changed; Central banks areWith the Japanese Yen stable below 150, BOJ is the main focus. Monday saw a small increase in the value of the Japanese yen, which last week dropped to a one-year low and is now trading below 150. With high inflation and a badly weakened economy, the spotlight is firmly on the outcome of the BOJ meeting on Tuesday, when the central bank is expected to likely announce more adjustments to its yield curve management program. A rebound in consumer inflation in Japan was seen in recent statistics, which traders speculated would force the BOJ to revert its ultra-loose policy. The bank's negative interest rate policy is expected to terminate in 2024, according to analysts. The yen, which is among the worst-performing Asian currencies this year, stands to gain from any tightening measures taken by the BOJ.
Long
by TrategySherpa
USDJPY Shorts to 146.800My bias for this pair is very much so bullish due to the fact that price has entered the last (8hr) supply zone of the chart. Not only has it swept so much liquidity, but the initial rejection ended up causing a change of character to the downside on the 4hr time frame. As we can clearly see wyckoff distribution play out, there have been nice POI's left for us to enter sell positions from, like the 15min unmitigated supply at the top or the 17hr supply zone just underneath. We will wait for the pullback to come back to these areas to re-distribute on the lower time frame in order for us to get the most premium price to sell at which will maximise our risk to reward ratio. Ideally we would also wait for the asian high to get swept first at 150.420 before looking at entries, as there will be no more reversal magnets against our trade. Our sells will then be in a very good position for price to just melt down. Scenario B is that USDJPY will end up making new highs and break the POI's marked out. This would be expected when the current pull back comes and fails all the supply zones at the top to take out the ATH's (All time highs of the market.) However, even then we will also expect a bearish trend to form once price decides to sweep ATH's as that is also a strong form of liquidity. My confluences for USDJPY shorts are as follows: - Price has tapped into the last 8hr supply zone of the market that also caused a change of character on the 4hr. - Liquidity has also been swept inside the zone from the upthrust distribution and has now left valid POI's - Once the asian high gets taken there will been reversal magnets against our sell bias. - Lots of liquidity to the downside to target as take profit targets i.e. Trendlines, equal lows, untouched asian lows and long wicks to fill. - There is also a 15hr demand zone at the bottom that price needs to eventually mitigate. P.S. There is also a 3hr supply POI underneath the asian high that it could react off but I would like to see a clear CHOCH and maybe even a break of structure to validate the hold of that supply. As we have identified both feasible scenarios, we can now prepare for the markets price action to play out and make our moves from there. But we must remain adaptive at all costs and know either could occur in this markets forecast.
Short
by Hassan_fx
1
USDJPY BUYING FROM SUPPORT HELLO TRADERS,,, As i can see USDJPY is moving all time HIGHER on 4HR and daily TF but still it had not tested the last weekly horizontal support so i am expecting a drop on this pair on smaller Time Frames to test support zone & then we can enter to buying this pair with very low risk and higher rewards on bigger TF it is showing something big pictures whats Ur thoughts and ideas on this pair we appreciate Ur love and support it help alote of traders community Stay tuned for more updates
Long
by APEX_TRADING_ACADMEY
Alert: Yen's Weakening Against Dollar Raises Intervention Risk Over the past few weeks, we have observed a steady decline in the value of the yen against the dollar. This trend has raised serious concerns about the possibility of intervention by the Japanese government or central bank. As traders, it is essential that we consider the potential implications of such intervention and take appropriate action to safeguard our positions. Given the current state of affairs, I strongly urge you to consider going long on the yen. However, it is equally important to remain cautious and closely monitor any signs of intervention by Japanese authorities. The intervention risk is real and could significantly impact the yen's value in the market. To ensure you make informed decisions, I encourage you to keep a close eye on key economic indicators, news releases, and any statements from Japanese policymakers. Additionally, staying updated on market sentiment and expert analysis will be invaluable in navigating this uncertain landscape. As we move forward, let us remember that risk management is of utmost importance. While there may be opportunities to profit from the yen's weakening, it is crucial to have a well-defined risk management strategy in place. This will help protect your investments and mitigate potential losses in case of unexpected market movements. In conclusion, I want to emphasize the importance of being proactive and prepared in these challenging times. By going long on the yen while remaining vigilant for potential intervention, we can position ourselves strategically to take advantage of market opportunities while minimizing risks. Should you have any questions or concerns, please do not hesitate to comment below. Let us support each other and collectively navigate through this period of uncertainty.
Long
by bryandowningqln
USDJPY back to 150. Is this a positive signal for investorsUSDJPY touched 150.eleven early withinside the Asian consultation earlier than falling barely because the USD got here below strain from options-pushed selling. The pair is presently buying and selling round 149.93. Investors are carefully downplaying JPY because of the chance of presidency intervention. Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki stated closing week it became critical to have balance withinside the forex marketplace and that volatility ought to mirror essential analysis. Yukio Ishizuki, senior currency strategist at Daiwa Securities (Tokyo), said, ``The US dollar/yen pair broke through the 150 mark during a period of low liquidity, probably due to the influence of speculators.'' Concerns will limit upside. People will continue to be nervous. ” Fukuhiro Ezawa, head of Tokyo Financial Markets at Standard Chartered Bank, said, ``The rapid fall of USD/JPY from 150 is a sign that algorithmic funds are increasing their sell orders due to concerns about interference.'' The large interest rate differential with the United States is the cause of the weak yen, and the yield on 10-year U.S. bonds is 4.96%, nearly six times higher than the yield on Japanese government bonds with the same maturity (0.835%). Differences in monetary policy exacerbate the situation. The Bank of Japan said it will continue to maintain supportive policies to achieve a stable and sustainable 2% inflation target. Investors continue to monitor geopolitical tensions in the Middle East as they await the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting on October 30-31. Investors also welcomed a Nikkei report that Bank of Japan officials are considering whether to adjust its yield curve control program as domestic long-term interest rates rise in line with the U.S.. The source of the information was not identified in the report.
Long
by NicoTradingMaster
USD/JPY Weekly Chart Analysis - Inching Toward a Bear ReversalUSD/JPY has refused to fall below the Weekly 9EMA since July 28th. However, we are inching closer to the previous high resistance of 152.000, so we should be cautious longing in the coming weeks. JPYX is also hovering around a support area in a descending wedge and has the potential to pullback to the upside, dragging USD/JPY down or at least, holding it back. The RSI is also in overbought territory which is *never* a reason on its own to reverse your position bias. But when we couple the RSI level with the following items, a reversal into a minor pullback seems likely: 1. The previous high of 152.000 is near. Given it was the point of the last reversal, expect some selling at this level. 2. We have had 12 consecutive candles above the 9EMA on the Weekly, we should expect a fall below the 9EMA in the next couple of weeks given how close the 152.000 resistance is. 3. JPYX is bouncing on the descending wedge and has probable potential to reverse to the upside, which would stall or drag USD/JPY down. 4. The Weekly bull bars are weak. They appear to be losing strength as we get closer to 152.000. 5. RSI on USD/JPY is overbought, which is a weak signal but a signal that supports the prior data in this list. At this moment, I would be zooming into the lower timeframes like the 15m and 1hr candles to look for good scalp entries and keep my position sizes a bit smaller than my maximum. The probability of reward over risk is lessening as we get closer to 152.000; be careful at this level. As always, trade at your own risk and you are responsible for your trades. I hope this analysis was insightful and useful. Trade wisely and let us know what you think in the comment section below!
by TraderEngineering
USD/JPY stuck below 150 ahead of Japan CPI reportSoaring government bond benefits continue to dominate the pair's price action. Investors still need to watch out for Japan which will likely rate closer to 150. USD/JPY fell near 148.80, but quickly recovered to around 149.50 as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to announce its inflation forecast for fiscal years 2023 and 2024 earlier. On Tuesday, Bloomberg forecast the BoJ's new core CPI for fiscal 2023 could reach 3%, up from 2.5% in July and more than 2% for fiscal 2024. Inflation Forecast higher shows that the BoJ is confident ahead of salary increase negotiations next spring.
Short
by NicoTradingMaster
USD/JPY Bullish long RangeUS Dollar Dips but Finds Buyers The US dollar has fallen rather hard during the course of the trading week, but found enough support underneath to turn things around. The ¥138 level is an area that a lot of people had been paying attention to as it was the top of the ascending triangle that I have marked on the chart, and of course the “market memory” that comes with the top of the ascending triangle is coming into the picture. If we turn around and break above the top of the candlestick, then it opens up the possibility of a move toward the ¥142 level. If we break above the ¥142 level, then it opens up the possibility of a move to the ¥148 level which is the measured move from the ascending triangle. You can see that we broke out exactly where you would anticipate seeing that based upon standard technical analysis, so I do think this is a market that you are a buyer of dips on given enough time, and will have to look at it through that prism. I have no interest in shorting this market, and I do believe that as soon the market breaks above the top of this candlestick, we will probably continue to see a lot of upward momentum and a move to the upside. If we were to break down below the ¥138 level, then it could see a fairly steep correction, but right now I don’t see that in the cards, and I believe we probably still have the possibility of a stretch higher. The US dollar continues to benefit from the Federal Reserve being tight while the Bank of Japan continues its yield curve control. BoJ Governor in no hurry to alter BoJ monetary policy path Key levels to watch for USD/JPY for the current bearish continuation scenario BOJ GOVERNOR UEDA IN NO HURRY TO ALTER COURSE BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda stressed that the Bank is in no rush to alter the path of monetary policy despite interest rates holding above the 2% target since early 2022. The pick up in inflation has been attributed to supply side effects created by the demand and supply mismatch brought about as a result of the Covid-19 lockdowns and Russia Ukraine war. However, this morning at a platform for Japan’s government draft economic policy, it was declared that the government will eradicate a deflationary mindset and move towards ending deflation with bold monetary policy, flexible fiscal policy and with its growth strategy. Additionally, the draft policy issued hope that the BoJ achieves a sustainable 2% inflation target, accompanied by welcomed wage growth. The news helped the pair continue to ease lower in early European trading. USD/JPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND KEY LEVELS OF INTEREST USD/JPY turned lower at the beginning of the week when news of a provisional agreement to raise the debt ceiling filtered into the market. Since then, interest rate expectations have reversed course, initially favouring a 25-basis point hike and now largely favouring the no hike or “skip” outcome. As such, a weaker dollar has benefitted the yen which now sees the pair on track for 5 consecutive days of declines. The 138.20 and 138.00 zone of support currently appears as the next area of support, followed by the 200 SMA which hovers around 137.27 at present. The downward momentum is supported by the return from overbought territory on the RSI towards neutral levels, alleviating pressure on Japanese officials that had to issue a warning that they are closely watching speculative moves in the currency market. Resistance lies all the way at 140/142.25, some distance away. MAJOR RISK EVENTS OVER THE NEXT WEEK Today at 13:30 UK time, US non-farm payroll data is anticipated to reveal a fewer number of jobs being added in May compared to April. Actual prints have varied significantly from prior estimates so be prepared for increased volatility in the event we see another departure from the consensus figure of 190k. If yesterday's ADP (private payroll data) beat and increased employment number within the ISM manufacturing PMI are anything to go by, we could very well see a print above expectations. However, it must be said that ADP has proven an unreliable predictor of NFP data and the jury is still out on whether its new methodology is any better than the last. A sizeable beat may see an uptick in rate expectations, lifting the dollar, and by extension, USD/JPY. A miss could add to the current sell-off as traders get behind an interest rate skip later this month. US services PMI will be a crucial data point in analysing the state of the US economy at a time when equity indices surge on thanks to a handful of massive tech and AI-aligned names. Towards the end of next week Japan will see the final GDP figure for Q1 - which is likely to confirm a much improved outlook than what emerged in the final quarter of last year.
Long
by DaveBrascoFX