USDJPY Shorts from 145.200 down towards 140.000USDJPY continues to display a strong bearish outlook as the price has once again broken structure to the downside, affirming a long-term bearish trajectory. Regarding potential opportunities around the current price, my strategy involves awaiting a price retracement to the nearest supply, identified on the 15-hour time frame. This scenario represents the next potential phase for the price to initiate a downward movement.
At present, I'm in a wait-and-see mode, anticipating the price to fill in the imbalance and undergo redistribution. This would serve as an indication that bullish pressure is diminishing, signaling the potential for another impulsive downward move. If the price proceeds further downward, I'm also prepared for a potential buying opportunity around the 7-hour demand zone near 140.000.
Confluences for USDJPY Sells are as follows:
- Price broke structure to the downside confirming a long term bearish trajectory.
- Dollar (DXY) looks like its going to continue a bearish trend which acts as a positive correlation for this pair.
- Lots of liquidity below that hasn't been taken on higher timeframes like trend lines etc.
- In order for price to continue in its bearish course it must retrace back to a major supply so it can create another impulsive move to the downside.
P.S. Being decidedly bearish on this pair, I am eager to observe the response from the 7-hour demand zone, situated at a significant psychological level of 140.000. Furthermore, the zone has initiated a Break of Structure (BOS) to the upside, providing an additional positive confluence that suggests the potential temporary holding of this zone. Feel free to share your thoughts on the USDJPY market in the comments below.
Usdjpyforecast
USDJPY → Bear Run Complete! Bounce back to 152.000? Let's AnswerUSDJPY has officially broken out of the bull channel it's been in since February 2023 and fell hard into the Weekly 200EMA! The final Daily bear candle closed with a large wick over 1/3 the total size and the following Daily candle closed with a long tail as well. Does that mean we're going up?
How do we trade this? 🤔
A bear breakout on a bull channel after the double top reversal is usually a signal that we're about to enter a trading range (sideways price action). We have a good show of Support at the 200EMA and possibly up to the previous high in the bull channel between 143.850 and 144.850, but we need confirmation to ensure that this Support zone is real which includes a strong bull followthrough candle on the Daily chart.
Look to long toward the bottom of the trading range after it's been established, an entry around the 145.000 area is reasonable looking for a 1:1 scalp or 1:2 swing on a lower timeframe.
💡 Trade Idea 💡
Long Entry: 145.500
🟥 Stop Loss: 143.200
✅ Take Profit: 150.100
⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2
🔑 Key Takeaways 🔑
1. Bear Breakout of Bull Channel, Entering Trading Range.
2. Three Legs Down to Daily 200EMA.
3. Two Large Wicks on 200EMA, Look for Confirmation.
4. Trend Change, Establishing Trading Range between 145.000 and 152.000.
5. RSI at 35.00 and below Moving Average. Wait for Confirmation to Long.
⚠️ Risk Warning! ⚠️
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trades. Trade at your own risk!
Like 👍 and comment if you found this analysis useful!
USDJPY: Goldman Sachs: Reduced 12-month USD/JPY forecast to 140 Goldman Sachs Data reported on December 18 that Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for next year's exchange rate and expects the US dollar to weaken further.
“The biggest revisions to our forecasts are on exchange-sensitive currencies like the Japanese yen,” strategists including Danny Suwanapruti and Michael Cahill wrote in a Dec. 15 report. , the Swedish krona and the Indonesian rupiah, these currencies will struggle under a 'keep interest rates higher for longer' regime. "
Goldman Sachs forecasts USD/JPY three-month target at 145, six-month target at 142 and 12-month target at 140; previous forecasts for the same period were 155, 155 and 150 respectively.
USDJPYHey Everyone,
While many traders believe that UJ will reverse and drop significantly, but, what we think price will continue the bullish trend as it is very unlikely that JPY will gain its strength back. UJ will at least move up 500+ pips before it may drop significantly. For this year, USDJPY remain too bullish in our opinion.
what do you all think about it?
USDJPY I Bullish USD unemployment claims long from supportWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** USDJPY Analysis - Listen to video!
We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met.
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GBPJPY and USDJPY Top-down analysis Hello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
USDJPY Shorts from 147.000 down to 140.000My breakdown for USDJPY this week involves sustaining its temporary bearish trend. Currently, the price has shown a bullish reaction at our identified Point of Interest (POI), resulting in a pullback to tap into a Daily supply zone above. Following this, our strategy involves anticipating a redistribution on lower time frames to facilitate selling opportunities, targeting the equal lows.
Considering the impact of NFP Friday on our demand, we await the formation of a correction to prolong the downward trend. In case the price opts for breaching equal lows first, our plan involves waiting for entry at the 7-hour demand zone, presenting an opportunity to buy at a more favorable price.
Confluences for USDJPY Sells are as follows:
- Price retraced from a 2-day demand and now slowly approaching a daily level of supply zone.
- Supply Zone is on the daily time frame that has also caused a Break of structure to the downside.
- Lots of liquidity to the downside in the form of equal lows, and major trendlines.
- Price needs to fill the imbalance as well which has been left from the supply zone.
- The dollar is also expected to be bearish so this pair is also projected to move in a similar way.
P.S. Since the price on the higher time frame couldn't surpass the all-time highs and experienced a significant sell-off, my expectation is that the price may continue its decline to target substantial liquidity below. Consequently, I am inclined to seek pro-trend trading opportunities to prolong this downward movement, aiming for the 140.000 mark.
#USDJPY: Still bull have the control! Dear traders,
with usdjpy we expect price to rise continuously moving forward due to two main reason, firstly we think buyers presence in the market is significate and this was just a small short of retracement. Secondly, there are many majors news that will have huge impact on DXY moving forward. About entries, there are two areas of entries first is where price from the current trading price rise from this moment. Second, is where price can drop around 144-143 region and bounce from that point.
USDJPY → Drop to 144.000!? Or Fly back to 152.000? Let's Answer.USDJPY fell from the double top as predicted in last week's analysis, hitting my take profits all the way down to 147.120. Will there be more downside or are we ripe for a rip back to 152.000?
How do we trade this? 🤔
This analysis shows us three clean support areas: 146.000 (Bull Channel Support), 145.000 (Previous High), and 144.000 (200EMA). It's reasonable to zoom into small timeframes and look for short scalp setups down to those levels. Since the macro trend is bullish, I would be careful to hold any shorts now that the gap from 152.000 has closed the majority of the way. The RSI is still below the moving average and has *some* room to fall, supporting the short-term bear bias.
Long-term, look to get long! We'll need a strong show of support with a bull signal bar and confirmation candle closing on or near its high and for the RSI to head upward breaking above the Moving Average.
💡 Trade Ideas 💡
Short Entry: 146.850
🟥 Stop Loss: 150.000
✅ Take Profit: 143.700
⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:1
Long Entry: 145.500
🟥 Stop Loss: 143.200
✅ Take Profit: 150.100
⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2
🔑 Key Takeaways 🔑
1. Bull Channel, Bias to Long.
2. Double Top Reversal Signal. Still Gaps to Fill.
3. Wait for Support at Channel Support, Previous High, or 200EMA.
4. Previous Channel High of 145.000 Final Target.
5. RSI at 35.00, below Moving Average. Supports Short-term Short, Long-Term Long.
⚠️ Risk Warning! ⚠️
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trades. Trade at your own risk!
Like 👍 and comment if you found this analysis useful!
Tipping Point: Are We Poised for a Breakthrough or Breakdown?This pair is at a crucial point. What happens here will set its course for the next few months or even longer.
Last week, it went above 150, but then there was a big drop. It seems the Bank of Japan (BOJ) stepped in, just like they did last year. When they did that last year, the price dropped over 2,000 pips in the following months. Will the same thing happen again?
The 152 mark is a significant resistance level. If the we manages to break and get a weekly or monthly close above this level, it could pave the way for a rally towards the Monthly SUPPLY/SELL zone at 157.
Given the circumstances, such as ten consecutive weeks of the market reaching new highs and recent BOJ interventions, I don't see this happening for now anyhows. I believe that buying this pair at current levels is risky. Though I do anticipate another attempt to breach the 150 mark, perhaps even surpassing last week's high, before an imminent sell-off.
I'll be using the TRFX king indicator to spot sell signals on the 4-hour to daily charts, especially as the market nears or exceeds 150. My stop-loss will be set slightly above 152.
If this rally does not occur I will wait for the break lower and then enter on the first sell signal on the first pull back.
First target that should be easily hit is 145 ,this should act as some sort of support and could be an area for buyers to regroup and try to push for a move to break 152 (I don't see this happening though this is trading anything can happen)
If the pair dives below 145, it could signify an even deeper correction, potentially below 140. Further sell-offs, potentially triggered by the BOJ altering their negative rate policy, could lead to rapid unwinding of carry trade positions.
To sum it up, I believe entering buying positions at current levels is very risky and if you are looking to buy I would wait for pull backs towards 145. In contrast, a sell position seems to offer a more attractive risk-reward proposition and has the potential to result in a substantial trade.
USDJPY BUY FROM STRONG SUPPORTHELLO TRADERS
As i can see thee pair is holding support and soon it will break trend line and continuous to our design TP USD DXY is holding support and looking to retest 103.10 zone this can be retrace and easy these pips this is just an trade idea kindly share ur thoughts with us
we appreciate Ur support to the trader community
USDJPY: November CPI data in the Tokyo area exceeded the BoJ's 2Recent data shows inflation has eased since October:
CPI (excluding fresh food and energy): 3.7%
Total CPI: 3%
Inflation in Tokyo, although exceeding 2%, is still slightly lower than forecast
FX Update: USD/JPY edged 15bp higher to around 147.25 after this data
USDJPY I Fed expectations soft thus more potential downsideWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** USDJPY Analysis - Listen to video!
We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met.
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USDJPY Longs from 145.000 up to 148.300This week, the current position of USDJPY appears favorable, positioned near two promising Points of Interest (POIs). We are inclined towards buying opportunities as the price has recently responded to a supply zone, and we anticipate a slowdown and accumulation.
Upon the completion of Wyckoff accumulation within our designated zone, we will seek buy positions for a short-term trade, aiming to reach the nearest significant supply. This counter-trend trade will serve as a retracement, acknowledging the temporary bearish trend.
Confluences for USDJPY Longs are as follows:
- To sustain its bearish trend, the price must respond to a demand level, prompting a retracement.
- The price is nearing a crucial demand level on the 13-hour chart that has broken the structure to the upside.
- There are remaining equal highs and imbalances above, which needs to get mitigated.
The Dollar Index (DXY) is poised for an upward retracement, aligning with this bias.
- The overall market trend on higher time frames, such as the monthly chart, remains generally bullish.
- Price has taken some significant liquidity like asian lows so price might be due for a correction.
P.S. Upon the price reaching our 4-hour supply zone, we will patiently await a form of redistribution to align ourselves with the bearish trend. Currently, our focus is on the anticipation of a slowdown and pullback, which we expect to occur in response to the 13-hour demand.
USDJPY BUY ON DIPS !!! HELLO TRADERS
As i can see this pair has reached at support zone !!!! and i am trying to scalp some pips on this trade charts are crystal clear on Risk Reward ratio % have look on other newly updated trades so u can judge market next moves its just and trade idea share ur thoughts with us we appreciate ur love and comments and happy to answer you
USDJPY I Wait for pullback to structure high
Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** USDJPY Analysis - Listen to video!
We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met.
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USDJPY: Asian foreign exchange increased, USD hit 3-month lowMost Asian currencies rose on Tuesday, pushing the dollar to a three-month low as confidence grew that the U.S. Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates.
However, gains for most regional currencies were limited this week as traders remained cautious on a number of key economic indicators. This week, all eyes will be on the PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure.
The Japanese yen had a particularly strong day, rising 0.3% on the day, as traders said they expect the Bank of Japan to exit its ultra-easy stance in 2024. Japan's stable inflation figures released last week further support this assumption. Thanks to the Fed's reassurance, the yen continued to recover from the 150 yen level. The immediate focus will be on Japan's industrial production and retail sales figures, which will be released later in the day. week.
USDJPY Shorts from 149.500 down towards 147.500My bias for USDJPY is bearish due to the fact that price has reacted off the last supply from the whole chart, and has now given a CHOCH and BOS's on the higher time frame. Price has also took all the liquidity that was left above leaving price to now melt downwards and target all the asian lows, trend lines, equal lows, and imbalances that was left previously.
Currently, price has reacted nicely off an 8hr supply which we can enter imminent sells to target the (8hr) demand below at 147.500. I am expecting the 8hr demand to cause a retracement back up but from there we can take short term buys up to a premium supply around 150.500. As Wyckoff distribution has been completed we can look for the asian high to get swept in order to enter our sell positions because a CHOCH has already been presented to us on the 15min.
My confluences for USDJPY Shorts are as follows:
- Price has taken all the magnets that lies above and reacted off the last supply of the chart.
- Price has CHOCH'd and BOS on the higher time frame confirming a bearish trend.
- Lots of liquidity to the downside in the form of trend line liquidity, asian lows, EQLs and IMB's
- Wyckoff distribution has been completed on the Higher time frame and now melting.
- A re accumulation has been presented inside our current 8hr supply in which we have got a clean reaction from.
- Dollar (DXY) is also temporarily bearish for me so it matches with my sell bias for this market.
P.S. even though we are bearish I would also be interested in buying from 147.500 up towards 150.500 or higher to then eventually sell again. For now, we will see if price reaches that demand below as short term buys will be interesting there. Remember being adaptive is very crucial and because I am a day trader, I can counter trend trade up to better POI's to then enter pro trend trades.
USDJPY Navigating Retracement&Identifying Short Opportunities!Introduction:
The USD/JPY pair has experienced a dynamic week marked by a double top pattern, providing insightful clues for traders. While recent days showcased a retracement and an apparent uptrend tendency, the most recent price action is signaling a potential shift.
Retracement Dynamics:
The past week witnessed a retracement in the intense and continuous bearish flow of USD/JPY. The retracement is characterized by an uptrend tendency line, suggesting a temporary shift in market sentiment. However, recent hours are indicating a potential reversal, prompting a closer examination of key technical levels.
Fibonacci Retracement:
Zooming into the 4-hour timeframe, the current movement aligns closely with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, centered around the price of 0.750.700. This level serves as a critical reference point, providing insights into potential reversal zones.
Bearish Order Block on Lower Timeframes:
Detailed analysis on smaller timeframes, specifically the 1-hour and 30-minute charts, reveals the formation of a Bearish Order Block. This is a crucial technical pattern signaling a Short Position opportunity. The identified price range of 0.750.600 becomes significant for traders considering a short entry.
Break of Uptrend Tendency Line:
A pivotal moment in this analysis is the recent break of the uptrend tendency line. The breach of this trendline, coupled with a reaction around the strong high of 0.750, suggests a potential re-establishment of the bearish sentiment.
Conclusion:
In conclusion, the USD/JPY pair has undergone a retracement in the past week, challenging the prevailing bearish flow. However, with the recent break of the uptrend tendency line and the formation of a Bearish Order Block on lower timeframes, there is a compelling case for a short position opportunity. Traders are encouraged to closely monitor the price action around the 0.750.600 range, as it may serve as a key entry point for those anticipating a continuation of the bearish trend. As always, risk management and vigilant monitoring of price dynamics are essential for traders navigating these evolving market conditions.