Usdjpybearish
USDJPY New DowntrendUSDJPY on the daily time frame seems to have entered a new down trend. You can see that the lower range of the previous uptrend has been broken and its now forming waves of the new down trend.
So what your now basically are seeing is the a blue print for the new trend. Since its now at the stop of it close to the upper range and the Stoch is very bearish its a good time to enter a sell.
Best way to trade a trend for a longer 1-2 week period is to start small with a big stop around 80 pips. Then when you made 60 pips lower your stop to entry and add a 2nd position with a 60 pip stop loss. Continue doing this and after you added 2 positions (so 3 positions total) you are fine and cant make a loss anymore while you keep stacking up new position on which your profit will exceptional grow while the trend goes on.
USDJPY At Key ResistanceOn the daily time frame USDJPY is at a key resistance again. A rejection can lead to a down move to 111.50 and possible 109. Since the price is at a rejection we rather sell it and aim at a rejection while using a stop loss around 114.75. If the daily time frame closes above this level then the resistance is broken and we switch to a buy and aim at 118 over the next couple of weeks.
If you want to play it safe then wait for either 114.75 to break and buy it or for 113.88 to break which is at the lower range.
USDJPY short Last week bulls tried to make a recovery and pull price up from support and past the next support but failed. Bears were able to hold the 38.2 retracement as well as well as bringing price back down into major support area (101). as price continued into this area we can see it touch the demand zone and make another reversal up but bears once again were able to hold price in support while at the same time holding the 23.6 retracement also noting that the bears held the price from making a new high. From here we get our 3rd touch into the demand zone with an even weaker bounce. If bulls fail to break the last high from the #2 touch on the demand zone then we can see price falling from here to 95.00 area.
USDJPY potential break of weekly/monthly Support/DemandHere we have some very simple USDJPY analysis.
I have a bearish bias on this pair however due to price sitting at around support currently I have provided a long scenario target.
As we can see from the analysis USDJPY has successfully broken below what was a Major Monthly Ascending Trendline. The short term trend is also bearish on this pair. Taking all this into consideration my bias is to the short side in the medium to long term, with targets sat at around the 110.00 level. Price has not sat at 110.00 for nearly 15 months. The 110.00 Level also lines up perfectly with a monthly Fib extension which adds additional confluence.
In an ideal world I would like to see a clean break and close at or below 115.50 and for price to then retrace back into 116.00 to 116.30 level before looking for bearish confirmation and initiating a short order.
Remember I take an Instituional Swing Investment approach so this scenario might take a few weeks to play out and may not be a suitable for day trading or scalping for that matter. But if it does play out as derscribed above then we could well see price drop a significant amount. These are the kind of trades that interest me. If it plays out as described it also means that this type of trade is based on sound money and risk management because the Risk Reward ratio will be excellent.
My only concern with this pair is that we have not had a retest of the monthly ascending trendline. However, as you all know well... Forex isn't quite so simple and the charts dont always give us what we want and can sometimes just continue dropping or rising at their own leisure. In all scenarios, I recommend remembering that the markets can continue to remain irrational longer than our accounts can stay afloat. So trade wisely and I wish you all a happy trading week ahead.
If anyone would like to comment or post their own view then please feel free to do so.
Many thanks and Best regards!
Barry The Forex Trader
#BTFXT