1:10 RISK TO REWARD SELL SETUP FOR USDCADCore Analysis Method: Smart Money Concepts
Here’s a detailed breakdown of the analysis based on the Smart Money Concepts methodology:
😇 7 Dimension Analysis
Time Frame: 15M
Swing Structure:
The structure is currently bearish, with multiple Breaks of Structure (BOS) confirming the downtrend. The price has mitigated Inducement and is now undergoing a corrective swing move.
Only the extreme Sell Order Block (SOB) is identified as the Point of Interest (POI) in the Premier zone, making this area highly attractive for sellers.
This area has also served as a Resistance or Demand zone for sellers in the past, adding to its significance.
Pattern:
🟢 Chart Patterns:
To be assessed once the price reaches the POI.
🟢 Candle Patterns:
Will be updated upon the price reaching the POI.
Volume:
🟢 Significant volume is observed in the selling areas, indicating strong selling interest.
Momentum RSI:
🟢 The RSI is in the super-sell zone, indicating strong bearish momentum. Although there is an attempt at a range shift, it’s not confirmed yet, and the bearish sentiment still dominates.
Volatility Bollinger Bands:
🟢 The volatile move is about to conclude, and the market may require some time to cool down before the next significant movement.
Strength ADX:
The ADX indicates that sellers are firmly in control, supporting the bearish outlook.
Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (4 Stars)
Probability: 60%
The setup shows a moderate-to-high probability, but confirmation from patterns and additional indicators could increase this further.
✔️ Entry Time Frame: 15M
✅ Entry TF Structure: Bearish
☑️ POI: Extreme unmitigated OB
💡 Decision: Sell Limit
🚀 Entry: 1.3678
✋ Stop loss: 1.3686
🎯 Take profit: 1.3602
😊 Risk to reward Ratio: 10 RR
🕛 Expected Duration: 2 Days
SUMMARY:
The analysis suggests a strong selling opportunity on the 15-minute timeframe, with a sell limit entry at 1.3678. The stop loss is tightly set at 1.3686, providing a high risk-to-reward ratio of 10:1, with a take-profit target at 1.3602. This setup is favored by the current bearish market structure and the significant volume observed in selling zones. While the momentum is still bearish, the upcoming price action near the POI will be crucial in confirming this trade's potential. Monitoring the formation of chart and candle patterns at the POI will be essential for executing this setup effectively.
