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US Markets Defy Tradition: Stocks and Bonds Rise Together◉ Introduction The relationship between bond yields and stock prices is crucial in understanding financial markets. Generally, bond yields and stock prices exhibit an inverse relationship, meaning that as bond yields rise, stock prices tend to fall, and vice versa. This dynamic is influenced by several factors, including opportunity costs, corporate financing costs, investor behaviour, and economic conditions. ◉ Opportunity Cost of Investing in Equities ● Definition: Bond yields represent the return on fixed-income investments. When bond yields increase, they provide a benchmark for what investors expect from equities. ● Impact: Higher bond yields make stocks less attractive unless they can offer significantly higher returns. ● Example: If a 10-year government bond yields 7%, investors may require at least a 12% return from stocks (including a risk premium of around 5%) to justify the additional risk. If expected stock returns fall below this level, investors may shift their capital from stocks to bonds, leading to a decline in stock prices. ◉ Corporate Financing Costs ● Definition: Rising bond yields increase the cost of borrowing for companies. ● Impact: Higher interest expenses can reduce corporate profits and cash flow, leading to lower stock valuations. ● Example: If a company’s debt interest rises from 5% to 8%, its net income may decrease significantly due to higher interest payments. This can prompt investors to reassess the company’s stock value negatively. ◉ Investor Behaviour and Market Dynamics ● Definition: Investor sentiment plays a significant role in the bond-stock relationship. ● Impact: When bond yields rise, many investors may sell stocks in favour of bonds, seeking safer returns. ● Example: During periods of economic uncertainty, such as the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020, rising bond yields led many investors to move capital into bonds, resulting in significant declines in stock indices like the S&P 500. ◉ Economic Conditions and Inflation Expectations ● Definition: Bond yields are influenced by inflation expectations and overall economic growth. ● Impact: Rising inflation typically leads to higher bond yields, which can negatively impact stock prices as investors anticipate reduced future earnings. ● Example: Following the 2008 financial crisis, low inflation kept bond yields down, supporting rising stock prices as investors sought higher returns from equities amid low yields on bonds. ◉ Historical Context and Trends ● Definition: Historically, lower bond yields correlate with higher stock prices due to lower discount rates on future cash flows. ● Impact: Low borrowing costs encourage corporate investment and growth. ● Example: The bull market from 2009 to 2020 was fueled by persistently low Treasury yields, allowing companies to borrow cheaply and reinvest in growth initiatives. ◉ The Role of Defaults in Bond Yields ● Definition: The probability of default significantly influences bond yields. ● Impact: Increased default risk leads to higher required yields on corporate bonds, prompting a flight to safer government bonds. ● Example: During the 2008 financial crisis, rising default expectations for many companies resulted in corporate bonds offering higher yields as investors sought safety in government securities. ◉ Recent Market Trends: A Post-Election Analysis The recent market trends following Donald Trump's election as President of the United States have been quite remarkable. Typically, when equity prices rise, bond yields fall, and vice versa. However, over the last month, both equity prices and bond yields have increased simultaneously. This unusual phenomenon can be attributed to investor expectations of Trump's economic policies. The equity market has experienced a significant surge, with major indices like the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching new highs. This rally is largely driven by expectations of: ● Corporate Tax Reductions: Expected to boost corporate earnings and drive economic growth. ● Infrastructure Spending: Anticipated to create new job opportunities and stimulate economic activity. ● Deregulation: Expected to reduce compliance costs and promote business growth. On the other hand, the bond market has experienced a significant rise in yields, driven by investor expectations of higher inflation and higher interest rates. This is largely due to Trump's economic policies, which are expected to lead to higher borrowing costs due to unchanged or higher interest rates, causing bond prices to decline and yields to rise. ◉ Conclusion The recent rise in bond yields and stock prices marks a significant change from past trends. This shift shows how economic policy, investor feelings, and market forces interact, emphasizing the constantly changing nature of global financial markets.
SP:SPXEducation
by NaranjCapital
Inverse Head & Shoulders $TLT ETF Weekly ChartInverse Head & Shoulders NASDAQ:TLT ETF Weekly Chart The NASDAQ:TLT ETF weekly chart, which tracks 20-year+ Treasuries, shows an inverse head & shoulders pattern still intact. 📊 U.S. Treasury funds have attracted billions in inflows over the past couple of weeks, fueled by rising expectations of rate cuts and growing investor confidence in long-term government bonds. 💵 However, there's resistance at the $100 level— NASDAQ:TLT needs to break this level before heading higher. 📈🚀 #USTreasury #Bonds #FixedIncome #Investing #Finance NASDAQ:TLT #RateCuts #MarketTrends #ETF
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by AlgoTradeAlert
Why Are Bonds Still Crashing?Why are US, UK, and EU bonds still crashing since March 2020? In this video, we are going to study the relationship between bonds, yields, and interest rates, which many of us find confusing. How can we understand them, and why are bond prices leading the yield, followed by interest rates this season? 10 Year Yield Futures Ticker: 10Y Minimum fluctuation: 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
TVC:US30YEducation
by konhow
9
Did the 10 year yield break in 2008?Good day Traders and investors, The 10 year yield on the 6 month chart. This is the entire history on one chart. What is going on with the 10 year yield? It is getting very, very volatile. It all started in 2008 with the financial crisis just looming around the corner. At the same time it broke the .236 on the Fibonacci sequence and has been diving ever since. That is until the next major crisis of the pandemic where is seems to have bottomed and took a strong bounce off a cliff dive. What does all this mean? did something break in 2008 like a lot of economist are saying? It's very possible. When we look at the chart, the 10 year yield compared to the last decade has been very stable. Even during the Volker years (late 70's early 80's) when interest rates spikes it barely made a move out from the norm and then rode the top of the trend as support for years until 2008. This volatility break out does look deferent and kind of scary. What will the volatility lead too, massive spike? or massive plunge? Could it also just bounce around sideways for years? What we have to keep in mind is, these are historically long-term trends. 20 to 40 years. Could this move up be a fake out? Yes, I think it's possible, however a fake out is on this chart 5 to 10 years, so it's of no major concern at the moment. THE INDICATRORS Right away, when look at the chart and the RSI, we see clear weakening and bearish divergence on the trend. We can see it playing out (bearish divergence) from 1968 to 1981, when the yield made a higher high but the RSI made a lower low. As we can see the divergence did play out, but it took almost 2 generations in 40 years. Also the ASO has been showing that the sentiment over the yield has been lessening over the years on the up swings and down swings, but it just had a major cross, so is that over now? Time will tell, a lot of it. Touching on the Historical volatility again, we clearly see a sense of somewhat controlled or stable volatility for close to 100 years until 2008. Could this new volatility be the new trending range for the next hundred years? Possibly, if so, it shouldn't concern us. For now, we should just focus on the next 5 to 10 years and see what happens. I have included a couple of scenarios in the chart. If the RSI gets rejected from this down trend, then yes, this is the chance that it could be a fake out move and then reverse and go lower. If volatility stays high and the trend is to go up for 20 to 40 years then I do believe the RSI would have to break this down trend. both of those in my opinions are scary, the 2nd one than the first. There is also sideways action for a decade and possible a cool down of the volatility before the next move, I would prefer this one, as it seems less scary to me. THE FLUFF AND EXTRA I think the yields being a fake out and go lower is the least likely scenario. However, (and here is the Fluff) my conspiracy mind has one scenario where this could happen. It all hinges and plays on CBDC's becoming a thing during this time frame. The theory is if CBDC's are introduced within the next 5 to 10 years then the yields could reverse, go back and make new lows at some point. The reason being is I don't think we can go negative yields without CBDC's. That doesn't mean it's a given if CBDC are implemented, it means the doorway would be opened for it. Remember, this is just FLUFF and opinion and means nothing. Kind regards & Have great day Demetrios
TVC:US10Y
by WeAreSat0shi
1
US10Y: Rising short term inside its Channel DownThe US10Y is trading inside a Channel Down on the 1D timeframe with the 1D technicals neutral (RSI = 46.172, MACD = -0.046, ADX = 31.478). With the 1D RSI coming off an accumulation that we've seen on the December and January bottoms, we expect the price to rise and approach at least the 0.618 Fibonacci. Our TP = 3.750. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:US10YLong
by InvestingScope
7
Recap of my trade for today on ZB1!Good afternoon and good evening dear traders! At the morning I shared a post where I said to sell ZB1!, it's too late but you still have made some profits if you got in early. For my clients and I it was a good day in ZB1! and NATURAL GAS, we could make some good profits on the 4% drop of the NATURAL GAS and on the 1% of the ZB1!, I didn't share the NATURAL GAS one since I already posted the ZB1! one and I can't give the trades I give privately. See you tomorrow on another forerecast! If you got any question don't hesitate to ask!
CBOT:ZB1!Short
by YassineAnalysis
Recap of my trade for todayGood afternoon and good evening traders! I'm sharing with you a recap of my trade for today, actually we caught the 1st up trend after breaking the support line with a quite high volume, then after having the highest volume of the day on the candle I put the 2nd arrow at we added another position to finish the trade on the market with 2 contracts and a respectful profit after seeing a squeeze of buyers and closed at the end of the red candle I put an arrow on. After that the price broke the support line of the channel I shared the trade with you too early to make some profit of it. For more questions don't hesitate to ask and I'll be answering with pleasure. PS: The autocorrect changed the FUTURE to FEATURE on the post I posted this morning
CBOT:ZB1!
by YassineAnalysis
US10Y Double rejection. Targeting the 1D MA200.The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern ever since the October 21 2022 High and even though there might be a Diverging Channel Up (dashed lines) emerging, the current level makes a strong Resistance cluster. With the 1D RSI also rejected twice on its Higher Highs trend-line, we are turning bearish on the US10Y again, targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which supported the price twice on January 19 and February 02. Potential contact (as a target) can be made at 3.550%. We will continue to be bearish only if the 3.320% Support breaks. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
3
Timing the bond markets meltdownIs the UK bonds or the gilts the culprit that trigger the global bond markets meltdown? Not exactly. In fact, in April this year, there were clear signals that the global bond markets were already in trouble, and we will discuss that. Content: • Why we should not blame it on the U.K bonds, then who? • How to overcome this global bond crisis? Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. US T-Bond Futures: 1/32 of one point = US$31.25 32/32 is one point = 32 x US$31.25 = US$1,000 123 to 122 = 1 point = US$1,000 CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CBOT:ZB1!
by konhow
DJI and Bonds: Get your popcorn ready. In this short video I focus on the UK and US 10 year bond markets in comparison to the DJI. All these markets are linked up in the background - at the speed of light. There are no predictions here - only probabilities and speculation. High volatility is expected at the opening of the markets tonight, 16th Oct 2022. Some are predicting a 'Black Monday' type event next week, which doesn't have to happen on a Monday. I take no sides. I'm only protecting my losses in short positions and happy to let winners run. Stay safe, wash your hands, protect your positions, don't burn your accounts. 😁😂 Disclaimer : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on speculative opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
FOREXCOM:US30
by Captain_Walker
1
#US10Y #Bonds Can Fall From This FCP ZoneTraders & Investors, US 10 Year Bonds have been on the rise. After a minor correction they rose higher but now they could be approaching an FCP zone which can act as a resistance. We also have Relative Strength Index divergence setting up on weekly time frame. Out this on your watch list as this can impact stock market, indices and other asset classes due to money flow from this asset class. Rules: 1. Never trade too much 2. Never trade without a confirmation 3. Never rely on signals, do your own analysis and research too ✅ If you found this idea useful, hit the like button, subscribe and share it in other trading forums. ✅ Follow me for future ideas, trade set ups and the updates of this analysis ✅ Don't hesitate to share your ideas, comments, opinions and questions. Take care and trade well -Vik ____________________________________________________ 📌 DISCLAIMER The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of education only. Not a financial advice or signal. Please make your own independent investment decisions. ____________________________________________________
TVC:US10Y
by vikinsa
US10Y SHORT IDEACurrently monitoring a range of instruments with regards to the economic disaster that is currently unfolding before our eyes. Have taken measures to cut off from the world, and focus purely on technicals. Somethings going to give soon... Will it be the US10Y? Looking at the lower timeframes, we can see a revisit back up to the 78.6% level for the second time, right at this specific point in time, was the release of Non Farm Payrolls, prev: 526k, Con: 300k, Act: 316k. Currently monitoring the move up through the timeframes, witnessed the move occur on 15m ripple chart, which was the break down past scalper and boundary cloud. Retesting the underside of the scalper and moving lower. On the WAVE chart we see its currently held up by the WAVE Dynamic resistance. if that breaks we see a shift in trend on the 15m & 1hr. Will place this here for now and possibly update this as time goes by.
TVC:US10YShort
by TraderE9