Gold to US10YR Correlation using TV Pro 8 Split chart optionsHow the US10YR and Gold correlate against each other..
Us10yr
US 10 YR - Lower yields to come in 2019 and beyondLooks like loan officers will be selling 2 and 3 percent fixed mortgages before long. ;)
This is an update to my previous idea:
If you're a fan of Fibonacci, then you're already well aware of the significance of the 1.618 and .618 lines.
If you're not. Here's a super simple version.
.618 retrace is the most likely level to see a "bounce" if the overall trend is higher.
However, If .618 fails to hold, it's bearish and the next level of support is .786 followed by 1.0 representing a full retrace with new lower lows possible.
So, if the 10 year yield is to "bounce" and start heading higher, it basically has to do it here and now...
But that's probably not going to happen this time.
Globally, central banks of the world are already loosening. China and Europe leading the way.
The US economy is clearly showing signs of slowing. Tariffs, combined with record rain have devastated the Midwest farming region. (Expect higher food prices in 2020).
A rising dollar at a time where exports are desired more than ever, etc.
Ultimately, i expect the 10 yr yield to test the previous low of 1.32 we saw following the passage of Brexit.
And we could get there quick. Next 4-6 months or "before 2020" if that's easier.
Support Cracked Wide Open on the US 10YHere we are witnessing the minimum target from a ABC perspective since the January highs at 2.799%.
This sequence from here on should be viewed as corrective and will be a shallow retrace in the broader trend. There is little support here so the key levels to watch in play remain 2.286%. We may see some choppy waters here, however, the potential to retrace as low as 2.088% remains live.
Best of luck all those positioning for the week.
long US10Y bonds after breaking a 30 yrs bear trend line, the price went to 3 dollar zone resistance of 2014 and retraced to retest our 30 yrs trend line{bear} ...the price might stall for a while maybe six months but is on a great buy zone ,before the next bull run to 5.3 zone before an possible retracement .
US 10YR: Time to buy Bonds.Regardless of the fundamentals that are dominating the global economic scene (trade wars), there is an interesting long term, and rather cyclical from the looks of it, pattern developing on the U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield.
The pattern is a declining Head and Shoulders formation on 1W. The last two times that the same pattern emerged (in 2017 and in 2015 - 2016) the price broke higher very aggressively, surpassing the peak/ head of the formation. In 2017 the patterns duration was around 280 days while in 2015/2016 around 460 days. We are currently on the 360th day of the running pattern. Purely from a long term technical perspective it may be the right time investing in these bonds.
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The Yield Curve of the US Free Markets 10Y-30Y Combination CaseThe Yield Curve of the Free Markets ... 10Y-30Y Combination Case.. - US Bonds maturities of 10 Year and 30 Year (long maturities) are mostly influenced by free market participants and not by the FED Funds ... at present time they are not tightening as most combinations based on more short maturities. The indicator in the chart, the combination 10Year-30Years is steepening, sending a different message a possibility of expanding the duration of current economic cycle.
US treasury yields triangle breakout (good for USD)Treasury yields look to be breaking out of a triangle pattern from LT support. Pullbacks could represent a chance to join move higher
US10s finding support?Market is currently around a number of support levels ranging from 2.796% and 2.514%
=> This area is going to be very difficult to break because it also includes the uptrend which started from July 2016.
Here it is worth pointing out that the market has seen the leg lower via the ABC count. Consildation has kicked in for a lengthy period of time and we are set to begin trading more dollar strength.
Watch for signs of a base forming here, the setup weakens below 2.51%.
Thanks and good luck
US10YR Yield likely on a Long Path SidewaysUS Yields are likely going to follow the same path as Japanese Yields have taken over the past few decades. In this update i discuss why I believe this to be, and I also break down the chart using Elliott Wave and Fibonacci analysis to try and how this will play out.
US Bonds (10 years): On support -> Target 2.958There has been a positive correlation with equities for a few months already. Aiming for some good retracements
deference US10 YEAR YIELD AND US2 YEAR YIELDHere I try compare period of market declination with deference of US10 years treasury yield and US 2 years treasury .
As we can see, all last crisis and market declination, whenever deference between us 10 yield and 2 year yield was bearish and make valley, for 2 years or 26 months stock market have bearish trend.
I think we should ready for bearish and NOT correction on stock market.
isn't it?
US Levered Bonds (HY senior debt) sell offWide credit spreads and raised risk of default in HY. 65bps mgmt fee on $BKLN - good holding a short.
Long US 10year Treasury Bond $ZNWith WTI declining nearly %30 in a short time span and global growth slowing. Investors are long US TBONDS as they are willing to tolerate lower yields from bonds in anticipation of lower inflation and slowing growth.
Bonds rising will have a wide ranging market influence. From yields falling, to equities under performing to Japanese investors seeking domestic risk investment and therefore halting capital exports.
This will mark a turning point in the business cycle for month to come and will challenge active and passive investors and money managers to rethink their portfolios, possibly even rotate into other assets. We are still in the infancy of this turning point , tops and bottoms are ripe for picking.
Long TBT (Short Treasuries and Long Rates)Daily TBT shows bull flag and seller exhaustion. Weekly bullish cloud ahead.
All major EMAs supporting the move higher, which means rates going to explode much higher. Bullish dollar $DXY and bearish gold $XAUUSD and miners $GDXJ $GDX
Bonds ,rising like foam¡¡bonds, they rise like the foam and that as the past represented a problem, (inversion of the curve of interest ratios) now this has not yet been presented,
but to follow this trend with the strength it has, in a not too distant time the yield of the bond can get out of control
Road Map for U.S equities and economy (Similar to 1937)From the recent Ray Dalio's interview with business insider, he pointed out that our current situation looks exactly like in 1937, which led to a recession.
Three points that I take away:
1. Dollar is facing a short squeeze at current phase, so fundamentally, do not short dollar until something changes. So far, the picture is still Fed tightening and ECB, BOJ QEing.
2. The debt bubble will burst, which will end bad and the Fed will come to rescue, that's after when we have the "buy the dip won't work" phase.
3. The rescue will be temporary in my opinion, the fundamental issues of U.S economy, even global economy will have to resolve themselves in a bad manner, causing a recession.
We have experienced the sharp correction like in 1937 (~13%). Now we are in the "struggling to make new highs" phase, so sharp corrections like this week will happen more often, but direction is still up. The economy will use all its power to pump equities for the last chance. After that, we will experience extreme volatility= great money will be made by then (both long and short).
Around late 2019 and early 2020, the U.S may enter into recession. For how long, it all depends on what the monetary and fiscal policies will be at that time. Be prepared for that, but we are not there yet. So treat the pull back as buying opportunity. I have target price for $SPX500USD ~3200 and $US30USD ~28000.
[US-10Y] Strategic Asset ManagementTo monitor your portfolio, it may be useful to follow this chart on daily time frame, and a potential new TOP, could confirm our idea... Although this analysis could be difficult to consult, we are sure that Professionals could find this chart useful.
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US 10 YR BOND YIELD - Taking on new highsUS 10yr Bond Yields are attempting to take on new highs. Watch out for more pressure on Emerging Markets if the move should extend.
