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US10Y

US 10Y TREASURY: currently without doubtsDuring the previous week the market was pricing released job data in the US. Increasing unemployment rate boosted investors expectations that the Fed's rate cuts are round the corner. Also it has been confirmed through the Fed Chair Powell`s testimony to the Senate, with wording “at some point” during the course of this year. Although, initially, it was expected that the rate cut might occur in May, currently the odds are 80% that it might happen in June this year. Treasury yields were aligned accordingly. The 10Y US benchmark rate slipped from the level of 4.2% at the start of the week toward the 4.0% as of the weekend. Such a move was a clear sign that the market has no more doubts that the rate cuts are coming. Inflation rate for February as well as retail sales in the US are set for a release in a week ahead. Any surprises on this side might impact some volatility on the markets, however, without a significant move toward either side. The 10Y Treasuries will continue to test the 4.0% with a low probability that this level might be breached. On the opposite side, some moves toward 4.1% are more probable.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
Bearish Yields Could Send USDollar LowerUS Yields have topped back in October 2023 with sharp leg down, which is from Elliott wave perspective first leg A of a deeper A-B-C decline that can send the price back to the former wave 4 area to 3.25% - 2.5%. At the same time, we can see USdollar Index - DXY also turning down due to a positive correlation with Yields, we just saw some divergence in 2023. Currently we can see some recovery for the USdollar, as Yields are in a corrective rally within wave B, but as soon as wave C shows up, USdollar can be back to bearish mode. If we respect technical analysis, Elliott wave theory and positive correlation in the markets, then Yields could send USdollar - DXY lower away from important trendline connected from the highs soon.
TVC:US10YShort
by ew-forecast
US10Y Touched its 1D MA50. Time to rebound?The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield (US10Y) is expanding the new Bullish Leg, which we gave a buy signal on last time (January 24, see chart below): Yesterday it touched the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line for the first time since the February 05 break-out. During the previous leg of the 1.5 year Channel Up, the 1D MA50 held all the way until the formation of the new Higher High. As a result, we are bullish as long as it closes the 1D candles above it, with our 5.000% Target intact. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10YLong
by TradingShot
2
US 10Y TREASURY: it`s clear to the market Based on the moves from Treasury yields during the previous week, it seems that Fed's rate cuts are coming. This is what the market is saying, however, we still need this input from the Fed. At this moment, it is irrelevant whether it will be at March`s FOMC meeting or later within the course of this year, the important thing is that the market is now certain about it. Still, what we do not know at this moment is how many rate cuts will occur. The 10Y benchmark rates dropped down during the week from 4.31% down to 4.18%. This was a significant move toward the downside, which sent a signal over market certainty. In a week ahead it could be expected that the market will test the 4.20% level. A move toward the lower grounds could be questioned at this moment, taking into account fundamentals set for a release within a week ahead. There are non-farm payrolls for February and unemployment rate data, which could bring back some volatility on the market. There is also Fed Chair Powell testimony on March 6th, which the markets will watch very closely. However, based on current charts, there is a low probability that yields could go back to previous levels, they will rather oscillate around 4.20% levels.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
Why Central Banks Buying Gold & Institutions Hedging the Yields?While many of us celebrate the stock markets reaching new highs, central banks worldwide are actively purchasing gold, and institutions are hedging into treasuries and yields. Interest rates are determined by the central banks whereas Yields are determined by the investors. If you choose to lend or borrow money over a longer period, such as 10 or 30 years, you would typically expect to earn or pay more interest for this extended duration loan contract. However, currently, we are witnessing an inversion of this relationship, known as the inverted yield curve, where borrowers are required to pay higher interest on their short-term loans, such as the 2-year yield we're observing, compared to their longer-term borrowing. 2 Year Yield Futures Ticker: 2YY Minimum fluctuation: 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CBOT_MINI:2YY1!Education
by konhow
25
US 10Y TREASURY: rate cut on a long stick It seems that the market would have to wait longer than initially anticipated for the first rate cut. The FOMC meeting minutes revealed during the previous week showed that Fed officials are optimistic regarding the outcome of already taken monetary measures, however, they would like to be certain that the inflation is clearly on the road toward the targeted 2%, before they decide to make a move toward lower reference rates. The market reaction was further increase in Treasury yields, where the 10Y benchmark reached the highest weekly level at 4.34%. Yields are ending the week modestly lower, at the level of 4.25%. In the week ahead there is PCE data scheduled for a release. In case of any negative surprises in data, the Treasury yields might move to the higher grounds, at least till the level of 4.4%. Still, in case that there are no surprises, then there will be further relaxation in yields, at least till the 4.20% level.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
US 10Y TREASURY: to be or not to be a rate cut?During the previous period investors had been pretty confident that the Fed might cut interest rates in May, however, the latest published inflation data for January made them rethink expectations. Namely, as January inflation came higher than expected, the reaction of the Treasury yields was imminent one to the upside. This move was additionally supported by the released producers price index of 0.3% for January. The 10Y US benchmark made a move during the week from 4.15% up to 4.31%. In the week ahead there are FOMC Minutes scheduled for a release. In case that there is no news that the market did not priced in until now, then it might be expected some further volatility on the market. In the opposite case, some relaxation in Treasury yields should be expected, but not the significant ones. It could rather be a move toward the 4.2%.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
😳 TREASURY-BONDS COLLAPSE IS JUST ONE STEP AWAY TO COME BACKThe collapse in Treasury bonds in 2021-2023 now ranked among the worst market crashes in history. Since March 2020 to 2023 fall, Treasury long term bonds with maturities of 10 years or more have plummeted over 40% while the 30-year bond had plunged over 50%. That's just under losses seen in the stock market when the dot-com bubble burst. The bond rout was worse than the one seen in 1981 when the 10-year yield neared 16%. The bond-market sell-off that's sending yields soaring is starting to eclipse again some of the most extreme market meltdowns of past eras. Those losses are nearly in line with stock-market losses seen during the worst crashes of recent history — when equities slumped 49% after the dot-com bubble burst and 57% in the aftermath of 2008. Compared with previous bond-market meltdowns, long-term Treasurys are seeing one of the most extreme undoings in history. The losses are over twice as big as those seen in 1981 when 10-year yields neared 16%. That crash came as the former Federal Reserve chair Paul Volcker grappled with historic inflation and pushed the federal funds rate to just under 20%. While interest rates remain well below that level today, the central bank's aggressive turn toward monetary tightening in the post-pandemic era has caused a similar bond-market rout. And some traders have continued selling amid concerns of rebounding inflation, while a deluge of Treasury issuance this year has also pressured bond prices. Technical graph for 10-year yield futures CBOT_MINI:10Y1! indicates that 52-weeks SMA support is still important for further T-Bonds pressure, while 10-year yield (unfortunately to T-Bonds holders) is still following major upside trendlines.
CBOT_MINI:10Y1!
by Pandorra
S&P500 in 2020 & 2024. OR ARE YOU READY FOR A NEW ONE SKYFALL!?Due to recent publications by TradingView Team and many other TradingViewers I wonder, how strong people still believe in 4-years inflation/ disinflation credit cycle, with their eternal BTC-to-the-Moon expectations. Okkkay, Google. Let it be.. Let it be... Each coin has two sides. Just remembered, how many Covid19-talking people were there in the room a couple months before it's happened in early 2020. The main graph is comparison between SP500 4 years ago and in nowadays. Similar, or not? - Time will show! // This is the end Hold your breath and count to ten Feel the Earth move and then Hear my heart burst again For this is the end I've drowned and dreamt this moment So overdue, I owe them Swept away, I'm stolen Let the sky fall When it crumbles We will stand tall Face it all together Let the sky fall When it crumbles We will stand tall Face it all together At Skyfall At Skyfall // Not an investment advice
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Pandorra
Dire warning by $JPM CEO - We've been saying this for some time.Good Morning Update!!!!!!! The real #economy is NOT represented by #equities or other public investments. NYSE:JPM CEO has been vocal on what has been happening but this is his most dire warning in some time. Personally, am shocked this gets air play. --- #yield pumping a bit after "hotter" #inflation than expected reported. 2 things we've been saying for some time!!!!!!! Be in #stocks but, Have Hard assets!!! #gold #BTC #silver Pls see our profile for more info!!!
TVC:US10Y
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
US 10Y TREASURY: waiting January inflationDuring the previous week there has not been significant news published for the current state of the US economy, so the Treasury yields remained relatively stable, moving within a short range. The US Labor department revised its data for the inflation in December from 0.3% down to 0.2%, but the US Treasuries did not react much to this news. One of the reasons might be that the week ahead will bring a release of the inflation rate for January, in which sense, December`s data might be of less importance at this moment. At the same time several Fed officials publicly noted that the Fed is resilient to cut rates too soon, in which sense, the first rate cut might be postponed from the period currently expected by the market. The 10Y US Treasuries started the previous week around the 4.0% level, but moved to the higher grounds during the week. Highest weekly level reached was 4.19%. Yields are testing the highest level from the end of January, but without an indication that this level might be clearly breached. This increases probability for a short reversal to the down side, however, at this moment on charts there is indication for the level of 4.0%, with quite low probability that yields could go lower from this level in the coming week.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
Perhaps a 'Santa Rally' is just one step away to begin this yearStock markets often enjoy a seasonal share boost during the festive period. It's been an unpredictable year for stock markets after gloomy 2022 but all we are, traders, investors, TradingViewers are hoping for a successful end-of-year boost in the form of a so-called Santa rally. Shares have delivered a mixed performance so far in 2023, amid SVB crisis, high inflation and interest rate hikes, so while children are compiling their Christmas lists, traders also want some sweet candies. Traditionally, festive cheer and holiday household spending make the markets more optimistic during the holiday season, boosting investor portfolios. But will 2023 follow the trend? The "Santa rally", a term coined in 1972 by Yale Hirsch, the founder of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, "describes a tendency for the stock market to go up by 1% to 2%" over final five trading days of the outgoing year and the first two of the new one, said Forbes Advisor . This period has "historically" shown higher stock prices in the S&P 500 CBOE:SPX 79.2% of the time, says Investopedia . What drives the Santa rally? Reasons for the Santa rally are vary and one explanation is the cheery "end of year mood" that means investors are in more of a "buying temperament" rather than selling shares, which pushes up stock prices Will there be a Santa rally this year? Probably, Yes. November "capped off the best three months" for global shares since the pandemic stock market recovery in 2020, so there are a lot of hopes that stars will align, and momentum in the markets, helped by declining U.S. Treasuries rate, will push prices higher in the run-up to Christmas. Sure, there is "no guarantee", though. Sometimes it happens. Sometimes not. The odds of a Santa rally may be in your favor, but the "best option" (author's opinion) is to do nothing, remain invested and be "pleasantly surprised" by another strong month by the new year. The main technical graph for SPDR S&P500 ETF Trust AMEX:SPY says that we right now somewhere around 460 U.S. dollars per share (relevant to 4'600 points for CBOE:SPX Index), and just one step to break it out to reach CBOE:SPX 5'000 Milestone by the end of the year. Just follow the major upside trend, that's been taken from Q4'22. And that is all. Merry Christmas y'all, TradingViewers! See you in a Happy New 2024 Year! 💖💖
AMEX:SPY
by Pandorra
32
US 10Y TREASURY: relaxation is comingUS FED officials decided to leave the rates unchanged at the FOMC meeting during the previous week, however, the much better than expected jobs data influenced major Treasury yields move during the previous week. Although the market was expecting to see the figure of 180K, the released figure was almost doubled to 353K. In the eyes of market participants, this means high potential that the inflation will not drop down to targeted 2%, as expected, but the period might be prolonged, in which sense, Fed might keep currently elevated interest rates for a longer period of time, then previously estimated. In line with it, current expectations are that the first rate cut might occur in May this year. The 10Y Treasury yields responded accordingly, with a shift from 3.82% up to 4.04% as of the end of the week. The 4.0% has been tested for one more time. Based on current charts, there is a low probability that yields can go to the higher grounds. Instead, some relaxation could be expected in the week ahead, down to 3.9%, eventually 3.8% in the coming period.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
4