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US10Y

Wild Prediction- Gold CRASH Incoming?!🩸Here's an inverted scale of the previous chart which I posted for you all, showing another angle on the Gold market. Gold has tapped into our zone for sells and so far rejecting. Let's see if this huge move can play out! I've been buying XAUUSD since prices been at early $1,600's. Is it time for a reversal? It's not impossible. Gold is extremely overbought & moving in positive correlation with the DXY which is unlikely. I am expecting the Dollar to carry on climbing up, which can put an end to Gold's rally. Let's see what happens. I'll be looking to hedge my buy positions with sells.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDShort
by BA_Investments
2
US 10Y TREASURY: jobs and inflation data Jobs data posted during the previous week surprised the markets in a negative way. It is sort of a paradox, considering that usually strong job market is good for the economy of any country. However, at the current situation, this strong jobs market sends a signal of a potential increase in inflation figures, which might impact the Fed's decision to cut interest rates during the course of this year. In addition, there should be noted a modest effect from new geopolitical tensions in the Middle East which impact jump in price of oil. The combination of these effects, made markets to reconsider their previously set projections, and re-position accordingly. In this sense, the 10Y Treasury yields made a significant move from levels around 4.2% all the way up to the level of 4.4% during the week. In a week ahead data on US inflation rate in March are set to be released, which might drive some further volatility on the markets. Depending on data, if inflation is persistent then some further moves around 4.4% might be expected. On the opposite side, there should be some relaxation in yields, at least till the level of 4.3%.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
Bitcoin to $1,000,000, This is It. (Breakdown Explained) Well here we are, no recession? no rate hikes? what's going on?. The currency collapse is imminent that's what is going on while majority wait for a recession. No reserve currency has ever survived going past 121% Government Debt to GDP (what about USA in ww2?, this was the start of parabolic technology growth + decrease in spending + war debt repressions (forced). Government Debt + Interest will collapse the currency faster if the FED raises interest rates so this is not a possible outcome unless you want to roll the dice. CPI + Inflation has barely been tamed, FED balance sheet failed to reduce + BTFP. SPY (priced in USM2) has started a new bubble breakout (yes meaning it has just started). Japan raising interest rates means the carry trade is closing (people sell the US Bonds they bought with cheap JPY) adding artificial pressure on the US10Y market. FED raising rates at 121% Government Debt to GDP will send it to 200% faster than you can imagine, a recession? forget it can't be allowed to happen. Theory breakdown what happens next? FED unable to raise rates will start to introduce confidence lost in the dollar that will trigger loss in confidence in US bonds that will require YCC like WW2. When the USA has done this before it equated to the FED needing to get rates back to zero. The FED has an objective to save the US dollar above all means necessary, raising rates in a situation like this on paper makes sense but leads to to a accelerated debt cycle collapse. Jerome Powell's only option was to raise rates fast as possible strengthening the DXY as much as they can flowing all capital globally back into the dollar for risk management. Jerome Powell now must cut rates back to zero and initiate YCC on the US bond market, reinitiate Quantitative Easing to avoid any recession backstopping every market. Inflation must be allowed to run near 20%-100%. Large capital will see this event unfolding and run into assets like Bitcoin & Gold, we already see this and should understand why Spot ETF's and leverage ETF's were rushed to the market pre cuts. If the US bond market fails, global capitalism as we know it today fails. If my thesis was invalidated Jerome Powell would have started multiple more rate hike since I first mentioned this back in late 2023.
ECONOMICS:USCPILong
by FederalXBT
US 10Y TREASURY: testing 4.2%The 10Y US Treasuries finished the first quarter testing 4.2% level. The favorite Fed's inflation gauge, PCE indicator was published on Friday, indicating that the inflation is moving within market expectations. This additionally supported market optimism that the Fed will cut interest rates in June this year, which is currently estimated with 60% chance. Speaking at the Economic Club of New York gathering, Fed Governor Christopher Waller noted that there is no rush for cutting interest rates. He saw a rationale in keeping interest rates at current levels for longer to help inflation on its "sustainable trajectory toward 2%". Based on current charts, it might be expected that the market will start the week ahead by testing the 4.2% level. At this moment there are no expectations that yields might move below this level. On the opposite side, there is a low probability that yields could move higher to the upside, aside from 4.25% level. Overall, some higher swings in yields should not be expected at this moment.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
US 10Y TREASURY: digesting Fed`s narrative Since the beginning of March, US Treasuries were waiting for a Fed`s clear signal over the course of their interest rate actions, and they finally got the necessary details in a statement after the FOMC meeting. The Fed is planning to cut interest rates three times till the end of this year. A few more cuts are coming in 2026. This information brought some relaxation in 10Y Treasury yields, so they moved from 4.34% as a highest weekly level toward the supporting 4.2%. Current question is whether yields are preparing for a move toward levels from the beginning of March, when they were standing at 4.0%? On a long run, they will certainly make this move, however, probably not during the week ahead. The reason is that markets take time to digest all the information received, and then make a decision on a clear move. In this sense, for the week ahead the most probable scenario is that 10Y Treasury yields will take some time to test the 4.2% before they decide for a move toward the lower grounds.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
1
US 10Y TREASURY: rethinking timeSince the beginning of this year, until last week, the markets were certain that inflation is on the down-path and that the Fed might cut interest rates somewhere in May this year. However, the February inflation data made the markets rethink their initial assumptions. The inflation seems to be more persistent than initially estimated, in which sense, the rate cutting time by the Fed might come somewhere in the second half of this year. The market reacted on officially released data, so the 10Y benchmark yields returned a bit toward the higher grounds, reaching the level of 4.3% during Friday`s trading session. It should be considered that the week ahead might bring back some volatility. The FOMC meeting is scheduled for the week ahead, as well as FOMC economic projections. The market will gain more insights into the course of the potential future monetary actions by the Fed and will position accordingly. In this sense, some increased volatility might be expected. However, the level of 4.3% seems as a peak on charts at this moment, from where some relaxation might be expected, at least toward the 4.2% level.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
3
US10Y Expect to see a new High.The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield has turned bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 60.193, MACD = 0.003, ADX = 38.653) as it crossed above the 1D MA200 again, with the 1D MA50 following right under it, with the two on an emerging 1D Golden Cross. We have anticipated that rebound from the HL of the Channel Up on our previous idea and our medium-term target (TP = 4.600%) is intact. If the 0.786 Fibonacci level breaks, we will buy after the first 1D MA50 pullback. The 1D RSI is also posting a similar early rally sequence to April-May 2023 and December 2022-January 2023. See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:US10YLong
by InvestingScope