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US10Y

SPX since 1980s & 10Y Bonds. "Manual Guide" Technical analysis !Simple manual guide to better understand the relations, if there is any, between SPX & US10Y BONDS This is combing our four last studies into one comprehensive idea to try and figure out the patterns in both instruments. Thanks for your understanding if i missed one here or there or made some mistakes here and there. *** THE KEY FOR THE WHOLE STUDY IS : Daily Golden Cross (75% success) + Weekly kissing/cross (75% success rate) 200weekly MA = 75 % success rate we will get a pullback or a correction*** ---------------------------------------------- Starting with closest,2009-2021, crashes of SPX & US10Y BONDS price at that moment. (Idea included) 2.3xx 2.5xx 2.9xx 3.4xx 3.7xx All the above #s happened during the while the rate was actually going down, in our case today the rate is going up from most extremes low. Will it continue to go up/down is beyond my knowledge/experience. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ General perspective: ------------------------------ 1/ Using weekly Crosses on the US10Y have a 50-50 chance, not sensitive to the volatility of 10Y Bond. Therefore, do not come close to it :-). 2/ Since 1980 , past 41 years, we have 8 Golden & Death Crosses on the daily. 3/ Since 1980, past 41 years, there is 75 % chance to get a 20% correction or more while we are under the daily Golden Cross. 4/Since 1980, there is a 25% chance to get a 20% correction or while we are under the daily Death Cross. 5/Since 1980,past 41 years, not surprisingly we have the largest single percentage gain from a reasonable bottom before a 20% correction or more "244% up " to be exact as it is the case for all indictors since March's low all are our of the ordinary readings. 6/ as of today, we are under the "GoldenCross" = 75 % correction. 7/ we have 4 possible dats plotted on the chart for such event to take place , one of them we are already in !!! Next one is April 1, 2021. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Data for Kissing/Crossing 200Weekly MA: 2017-2019? One year nothing then 11%/20% 2015-2016 : 14% 2015-9 months sideways then 12% 2015 xxxx nothing 2013-2014 Long bull move. 9% pullback. 2011- 8% 2011- 7% 2010- 17% 2005-2007 : xxx long Bull move the crash 05-6% 05- 7% 04- 8% 1999-13%/10%/13% then crash 1997- 10% the bull move. 1996-8% Choppy Market then bull move 1994-9% then big bullish market ( 1 Year choppy market) 20% 11% 7% 7% 8% 36% 14 % ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Summary: 24 signals Kissing or Crossing 200W MA. 18 signals we went down @ kissing/crossing or Kissing/crossing happened a during pullbacks/correction 6 signals months-Year nothing happened then crash crossing down. 75% success rate we will get a pullback/correction kissing/crossing 200w MA. 25% we will continue a Bullish till crossing down then crash - 2 Years after crossing then crash 2007 -2015 cross up/down = Nothing happen to SPX !!! ------------------------------------------------------------------- Since the 80s every time we get a spike in US10Y Bonds SPX got a correction with a minimum of 20% and maximum of 57 % the question is where & when. Therefore, looking back to all the data available on Tradingview since 80s to 2021 we have measure the spike's percentage of 20% and more and the distance from the Golden Crosses & Death Crosses and showed the crash percentage as results of that. Surprisingly the weekly Golden Cross are 50-50 chance not the normal with indicators so the results are shown not plotted for the weekly. As for the daily all the work is plotted on the chart for your reference. Feel free to print, share, redistribute and publish this study for the benefit of any one out there. How to read the table below, just follow the steps: 1. Fist percentage is the gain of US10Y from the last reasonable low. 2. Second percentage is the % of the actual crashes. 3. The distance between the Gold Cross & the peak of the crash it self. 4. G.C = Golden Cross. D.C Death Cross 244 % up So far- ???? so far 144% up -20%- 305D G.C 59 % up -20%-70D G.C 70% up -57%- 20D D.C 64 % up -50%- 363D G.C (-24% Down) -22% -357D D.C xxx. 18% up -20%-78D G.C 28% up -36%- 130D G.C 43% up- -27%- 53D G.C 3 G. Crosses Vs 4 D. Crosses "Irrelevant weekly" 6 G. Crosses Vs 2 D. Crosses " 75% G. Cross " --------------------------------------------- Ideas:
SP:SPX
by samitrading
6
Bitcoin and Simple EconomicsThere are plenty of Bitcoin charts which were scaled, dashed with lines in order to justify desired result, a dream of $100K price level. Well, bad news. It won't. Before starting our review, if you are able to read simple graphics, please meet VIX: Volatility Index. Here you can see the opposite dance circles of VIX and BTC. As volatility decreases at stock exchanges, seas getting calmer, chances of a high wave (earning) is less, Bitcoin is a great instrument to jump in. 2022 is the "inflation" year. FED is on his toes. The 10-year Treasury yield rose as high as 1.75% on Thursday, as the rate spike in the new year resumed with investors assessing the FED’s faster-than-expected policy tightening. Increasing yields means less demand. Economically translated, investors are not searching for a safe zone or under panic of anything, including Omicron. So what is the good bet now? Stocks! Until Dec 2021, a positive relation is visible between US10 yields and bitcoin. At the very end of year we saw a switch (Highlighted area with rectangle) I expect BTC prices to cross down $30.000 level and VIX tor each 22.00 within 45 days. At that point, if FED makes first move before March, now it was time to jump in to the BTC since both EU and ASIA stocks will sell off as FED calls back green bucks to the motherland and offer safer solutions. DXY must be followed closely as it shows slower but steady pace towards 100 ground zero limit.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by MrCihan
BITCOIN Will it follow the US10Y rise?Following the big reception and positive comments on my most recent Bitcoin correlation analysis (with the U.S. Dollar Index and the S&P500), as shown below, I've decided to make another one, this time with the United States 10 Year Government Bonds Yield (U.S.10Y). Keep up showing me your interest on such ideas with your likes and comments, and I will make sure that more will follow. So on this 1D chart, Bitcoin is displayed in orange and the US10Y in blue. As shown, the have a positive correlation ever since the March 2020 COVID led global asset melt-down. What is very interested to me in particular is the fact that on some occasions, BTC lagged behind as when the US10Y started rising, it didn't follow immediately with a rise of its own, but did so a few days later. This indicates that the US10Y may be at times a leading indicator to BTCUSD. At the moment, the US10Y has been on a strong rebound every since the December 30 low. Could this mean that Bitcoin is lagging behind and will soon follow with a rebound of its own? This is quite similar to say the least with the previous BTC market low on September 21 2021. As you see the US10Y took off while BTC was forming a Support base and started rallying after September 29. Do you think we are in a similar situation? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
8
US 10 YEARS - W1 - DARK CLOUD COVER !We are going to look at the weekly and daily time frames. WEEKLY (W1) Last week price action triggered a "Dark Cloud Cover" pattern (bearish !) with its weekly closing level below the Tenkan-Sen and the cluster (Kijun-Sen & MBB) and also already within the weekly clouds support area. RSI below 50, @ 47'98 This Dark Cloud Cover pattern neutralized the previous white candle (harami), I mentioned as a first warning signal in my previous analysis (see related ideas below) and therefore the door is reopen to the downside towards former low of 1.34% first and then probably lower. DAILY (D1) Currently in an ongoing downtrend channel since the failure to upside breakout the clouds on a daily closing basis (Nov 29th). Below the clouds, the Kijun-Sen, the MBB and the Tenkan-Sen. RSI below 50 @ 42.44 The daily picture does not look very encouraging for the upcoming trading sessions and it is likely to see further downside towards 1.34% first and then towards the bottom line of the ongoing downtrend channel. 38.2% Fib ret @ 1.22%, 50% @ 1.05% and 61.8% @ 0.88% In order to neutralise this ongoing (yield) downside pressure the US 10 Years should recover at least above 1.50 % - 1.55 % Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
TVC:US10YShort
by Ironman8848
USDCAD Tactical SHORTEntering into a tactical short position on USDCAD. This is a pure position play, medium to long term I am bullish the USD, however I believe CAD is in oversold territory. USD is on a rip right now due to Powell pivot which the USD should be supported by US yield vs bond differentials. CAD positioning is in oversold territory ever since the last Bank of Canada rate meeting. There is an event risk in the upcoming BoC meeting but I would rather enter now and re-enter if I do get stopped out. Technical perspective - two cup and handle patterns finished, one on the left between April - July and another between Aug - Dec (orange fractal) and in between both was a head and shoulder pattern (in purple). Speculating that a another potential head and shoulder pattern will form again where I am entering on the left shoulder drop + a bearish Engulfing candle + a close below the 5 EMA. US10/CA10Y bond differentials are supporting a lower USDCAD paired with an oversold Oil primed to return to the 80s level. OIL vs USDCAD US10Y vs CA10Y Backwardation Oil contracts support CAD strength
Short
by StephenCAPM
XAUUSD (Gold) Daily Analysis : Bull or Bear ?Examining the gold's chart ( XAUUSD ) in daily timeframes, we see that the price is in a trading range after the break of the uptrend and is fluctuating in the same range. We see that the price has rebounded (pullback) to the broken level. We have to see if the price will succeed in breaking its next dynamic support with the start of the new trading week or not . Exiting the price below or above this range could determine the possible future trend of the Gold ( XAUUSD ) . The bearish targets will be $1760 and $1726 and $ 1707 respectively . Follow our other analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, we are here to help. ⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ... 👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading 📅 12.DEC.2021 ⚠️(DYOR) ❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by ArmanShabanTrading
US 10 YEARS - W1 - WATCH THE CLOUDS !Last week price action triggered a long black candle which broke on a weekly closis basis, both the Mid Bollinger Band and the Kijun-Sen or Base line. Such kind of price action should be seen as a negative (yield ) signal, calling for lower levels. In addition, the former uptrend support line which stated at the beginning of August @ 1.1270 has also been broken which also should be seen as an additionnal warning signal calling for further downside move with the focus on the bottom of the weekly clouds, currently around 1.15% which also roughly coincides with the cluster of former bottom and the primary uptrend support line. Therefore, this 1.15%-1.10% next significant support area, on a weekly closing basis, should be seen as THE KEY PIVOT LEVEL !!! MONTHLY PICTURE : Looking briefly at this long term time frame, we can see that the cluster (Mid Bollinger Band and Kijun-Sen is also currently @ 1.1500 which corroborate my weekly view above mentioned. A failure to hold above this point, would open the door for lower level towards 1.0570 (50% Fib ret) ahead of 0.8870 (61.8% Fib ret) CONCLUSION : Watch and monitor closely price action on a daily and intraday basis to detect early reversal signal (s) which for the time being should be seen as a corrective move in a broad ongoing (yield) bearish trend. Ironman8848
TVC:US10Y
by Ironman8848
XAUUSD 12H : 03.DEC.2021 : Bull or Bear ? (NFP)NFP Trading ?? Bull or Bear ? What do you Think ? The price is currently held by the support level of $ 1770, but has lost its dynamic support and has completed its pullback to that level. If the level of 1770 breaks, our Sell position trigger will be activated. The targets will be $ 1760, $ 1747 and $ 1727, respectively. Follow our other analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, we are here to help. ⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ... 👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading 📅 03.DEC.2021 ⚠️(DYOR) ❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by ArmanShabanTrading
3
US 10's mins 2's for Dec 2nd, 2021The yield differential between two-year and ten-year US Treasury notes, known as the 2s10s spread, has reached its highest level since November 2015. The 2s10s spread, which describes the slope of the yield curve, receives a lot of attention from market analysts and has arguably been a strong indication of economic mood and expectations. Historically, a steep yield curve indicates that investors are pricing in robust economic growth. When the 10-year yield is higher, investors do not purchase Treasuries, signaling that inflation expectations are high. It would also imply that investors anticipate the Federal Reserve Bank of the United States setting a higher benchmark interest rate than the existing one. In contrast, a flat yield curve indicates that long-term inflation expectations are modest. As a result, slowing economic activity and outperformance of fixed income assets are predictable outcomes. A yield curve inverted by 2 x 10 s implies the risk of a recession. In fact, the inversion of the yield curve, which happens 6–24 months before the economy falls to the point of technical recession, has forecasted every recession since 1955. The 10-year rate has risen sharply, breaking through a barrier level that had been in place since March 2020, fueling the steepening in 2:10. The rising 10-year rate, which is frequently used as a proxy for the risk-free rate in net present value calculations, has weighed on risk assets while driving the dollar higher as investors flock to risk-free 1.6 percent US Treasury notes. The US dollar index, DXY, has already broken through many resistance levels and is approaching its 200-day moving average of $92.9. DXY may be destined for a fall since the price has surged two standard deviations over its 21-day mean. The SPX has given up all of its gains from February and is now looking for support. According to the daily chart, the current spread on the 2s10s yield curve is close to 1.37 percent (2-year yield is 0.16 percent and the 10-year is 1.53 percent ). Since October 2020 , the pair has been heading upward. Prices have found support largely between the 8-day and 21-day EMAs, with a few dips to the 34-day support level, suggesting a strong rising trend. Furthermore, prices have been testing and smashing the upper Bollinger Band resistance level on a regular basis. Technical indications suggest a continuation of the 2s10s yield curve's upward trend, with the chance of consolidation before a rise higher. We predict the USD will climb if the positive trend continues, placing pressure on risk assets like gold.
TVC:US10Y
by TayFx
Black Swan - Risk Parity EventIdea for Bonds: - US05Y and US02Y printed immense spikes in the pre-market. Glitch? Probably not. Bond market in general is having extreme events globally, US markets not immune. - Not shown on TV, but HYG also printed -7% in the AH on Friday... and traded there for several minutes. - Dollar is unstoppable with global shortage. Pension funds have elected to use leverage to meet a 5.5 trillion dollar liability gap. I'm betting they will not succeed. In the context of everything, more likely it is a dark pool trade and people are running for the exits. GLHF - DPT
TVC:US05Y
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
5
Reversal weekend incoming!Good news for all of you crypto heads! The reversal is coming sooner than later. Why? Because we see a massive spike in shorts which means a massive spike in market maker longs (opposite side of the contract), coming from an ALL TIME LOW and hitting the breakout target from the falling channel / wedge. Furthermore, we have US10Y dropping massively along with the DXY, gold isn't doing well either. So there's nowhere to hide for hedge funds / stock traders than staying in their inflation hedge position; which is the S&P500 or the Nasdaq. If that wasn't good news already, the BTC / ETH options have expired resulting in billions of profit for the market maker; for your reminder; my max pain price was 54K and guess where we ended up? Of course we could have one last wick to the downside with 52,5K and 50K acting as good support. This could be favorable for the very short term to push the bears for more shorts and thus the market maker for more longs. However, I do think the end of the dump is in sight, market is massively oversold and I expect mr. weekend market maker to have some bullish fun this weekend. The weekend market maker is usually cowboy style with big pump and dump behavior, lets go for a pump! I am DCA'ing buys on bullish alts at the moment. Deploying 50-70% of my cahs and leaving some on the side for an extra dump. The market will come back in balance, liken it always does. IMPORTANT: this is not financial advice, trade or invest based on your own risk and research.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDSHORTSLong
by cryptobullethbtcxlm
1