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US10Y

US 10Y yield convergence of resistance levels around 4.19/20We have a convergence of levels around the 4.19/4.20 zone of the chart, it is a long term double Fibonacci retracement and represents significant lows seen in 1998 and 2001. Will be quite interested to see if the market pauses here in order to consolidate sharp gains that have been pretty relentless since August. Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
TVC:US10Y
by The_STA
9
Forecast US10YGood day everyone! Don't forget to put your thumbs up and write your comment if you like the idea The bar for 10-year Treasuries has been broken. The 10-year Treasury yield has broken the trend at 3.8%. In fact, this opens the way for growth to indicators in the range of 4.5-4.6%. There are elections in November, and we need to show at least some effect from measures to combat inflation. This is the main task. Well, what's next? Let's assume that we managed to somehow stabilize the situation with inflation (actually or by manipulating statistics is another question) by achieving a target rate of around 4.5%. Let the economy go into recession. And, after some time, start the cycle of lowering the rate again and pulling the economy out of recession? The current rates were in 2008, and the values ​​were 4.5% in 2007. And the Fed had enough of this "reserve" in reducing the rate for almost 14 years. DISCLAIMER: The opinion of the author may not coincide with yours! Keep this in mind and consider in your trading transactions before making a trading decision.
TVC:US10Y
by airstels
1
Gamble at your own risk - Global Financial Crisis of 2022/2023Do not pray to the false gods of guaranteed bailouts. "The problem with all this is that it's their own policies that created the fragility, their own policies that created the dislocations and now we're relying on their policies to address the dislocations," Peter Boockvar of Bleakley Financial Group said. "It's all quite a messed-up world." -CNBC Not everyone survives. 10 Year Treasury real yields showing a clear sign that liquidity is collapsing, the fastest rise since 2008.
SP:SPXShort
by shri30389
US10Y Pull-back aiming for the 1D MA50 at least.This is the U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) on a 2 year horizon. As you see its aggressive rise can fit only on a Fibonacci Channel. The recent pull-back happened after the price hit the 2.5 Fibonacci extension and the 1D RSI a largely overbought level and the price is already on the 2.0 Fib. As you see, the strongest buys throughout this period have been then the RSI hit the designated Support Zone. Also the strongest pull-backs dropped the price a whole 1.0 Fib level lower. From the previous 2.5 High, the low extension is at 1.5 and that gives us still some room to sell and target at least the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). Technically it would be best to buy once the 1D RSI enters the Support Zone again, even if that means missing on the lowest possible level. From were we stand today that could be as low as the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). Regardless of the exact bottom, as long as the 1D MA300 (red trend-line) holds, which has been supporting since January 06 2021, the bullish target is the 2.5 Fib and the 3.0 in extension. If the price breaks below the 1D MA300 though, we will consider this a long-term trend change to bearish and should switch to a sell-the-rebounds strategy. That would affect all asset classes from stocks to Gold etc, but when that happens we will have plenty of time to analyze it. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
3
Morning Update: Bonds vs. The MarketYesterday I saw some comments about how bonds yields have come down recently and that is one of the components aiding the stock markets recent bull run. The above chart is the 10yr Treasury. If you could flip this chart upside down, it would be a chart of the SPX. Here's my concern with this chart and how I'm looking at the SPX. This pattern is not done to the upside in the 10yr. It appears this trend continues well into 2023....where as I am looking for a bottom in the SPX this month or beginning of November. I believe every chart stands on it's own. But its hard to ignore the long standing inverse correlation between bonds and stocks. If this correlation continues into 2023...(I have no information to think I will not) then it is possible this low I'm looking for soon in stocks is just a larger A wave and this wave IV in the SPX and this pattern could drag well into new year. We will know if the next decline in the SPX is one in which we loose any MACD positive divergence we have had on the daily SPX. Best to all, Chris
TVC:US10Y
by maikisch
3
Market recapWith the interest rate hike correlation to US10Y Bonds, as the rates are rising we are seeing demand for risky assets drop off, people are cashing out of these asset classes and money is moving to bonds, in consequence we are seeing the USD start gaining great strength. The US10Y market is very interesting, as we appear to have broken a downtrend on the weekly chart going back decades, trendlines are neither here or that but with such a long history does this maybe add any more validity? (Who Knows). Going forward we could see XAU make moves from its old value area and make a move down to pre-covid inflation around $1200-$1300. I recently posted a short in the US stock market which I have attached below of where I believe the market will price in if what we are seeing in the rates and bonds continue to occur. Crypto being the most risk adverse of assets discussed here and the volatility involved imo holds the greatest risk yet, although we could see this obscene dollar valuations as a rare occurance? maybe a DCA approach can lead to good returns overall. However I see large falls inbound whether they happen this week or next who knows, but it is a risky asset class to hold in potential market turbulence we could see over the next few months.
TVC:US10Y
by ZenFlo
SPX/US10Y/VIX - you are welcomeHey !! So I've been digging and experimenting with multiple market instrument relations and I have picked those three - SPX, 10 year bonds and VIX as they are the most powerful of all. And I have noticed it has been creating a really clear trend of up and downs - comparing it to SPX it has shown that everytime we have touched the bottom trendline - the market bounced - ONLY in 2008 we have crashed way below - but whoever has bought below that trendline - was happy a few years later. Where are we now? At the lower trendline - a bounce is coded in but I am more than certain, that we will repeat 2008's crash to say the least. We're good for a bounce now, my absolute bottom sits at the bottom trendline. Monitor the breakout! PS : Also - the peak from AUG 2020 was lower in price on SPX than we are now.
SP:SPXLong
by TheSecretsOfTrading
1
More upside for Treasury Yields The treasury yields have been in a decline for many decades, on the other side we have a very unique situation in the equity market. We have over evaluations in many markets, especially in the tech sector that was fueled by the billions of dollars pumped into our economy during he pandemic. The interest rates were heavily suppressed and this country experienced the lowest multi-decade interest rate environment in history. Like a charged spring it was ready to burst; we can see the bottom being reached in August of 2020 as everyone rushed to buy, refinance, take loans, buy cars and borrow more debt with the assistance of the stimulus payments. Of course this caused inflation to go through the roof. Looking at the chart from an Elliot Wave perspective, keeping it simple and clean to understand, we can see an incomplete sequence with a beautiful extended 3rd wave, that is currently in progress of finishing wave "v" of the "(3)". I then expect a sizable 3 waves or triangle pullback down for wave "(4)". After the wave (4) pullback the sequence will still look incomplete and I will expect another wave (5) to the upside and into 2023. This will surely way heavily on mortgage lenders, those looking to buy a home, auto, or take out any new debt. Suddenly a 5% rate on US05Y becomes realistic. I expect other US treasury bonds like the 2, 10, 20, 30 year to rise and have similar wave structure as well.
TVC:US05YLong
by Elliot618
US10Y, It most likely goes higherIs the correction over for US10Y ? Elliott wave count suggests that US10Y will go higher and uptrend resumption may has been started. US10Y as shown on the chart is in typical Retracement zone for wave 4s. Wave 4s usually retrace not more than 50 % ( some experts accept a shadow down to 0.618 level) of wave 3. In addition our wave iv is in territory of circled wave 4 which fulfills one of important Elliott waves guidelines which says : :larger degree wave 4s usually end in territory of smaller degree wave 4s. upside targets are also shown on the chart which were obtained by typical Fibonacci levels for wave 5. please note there is one more impulsive section on the wave pattern on higher degree waves. I did not include those wave labels to keep the chart simple and clean. Good luck everybody.
TVC:US10Y
by SaeedSajedi
8
A Resistance On US Yields Can Be Supportive For GoldHello traders and investors, today we will talk about US Yields and its relationship with GOLD from Elliott wave perspective. As you may already know, US Yields and gold are in negative correlation. And, as you can see, while US Yields are on the rise, gold is slowing down. However, US Yields can be now finishing a five-wave cycle from the lows, while gold is approaching important support within a three-wave A-B-C correction for a higher degree wave (IV). So, if we are on the right path, then US Yields may start slowing down soon after reaching 10-year high, while gold could continue its uptrend within wave (V). Happy trading and investing! If you like what we do, then please like and share our idea. Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
SAXO:XAUUSD
by ew-forecast
XAUUSD : Target Reached ✅Well, as you can see, exactly as we expected, the price faced the demand pressure in the mentioned range, and with more than 130 pips of growth, it reached exactly the supply range that we said ($1676 to $1680) and The initial negative reaction showed! Important levels of supply and demand are marked on the chart !! Follow me for more analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, I'm here to help. ⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ... 👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading 📅 09.21.2022 ⚠️(DYOR) ❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ArmanShabanTrading
14
US Treasure Bonds Yields - Long TermAlright so I've come up with a formula between different US Bond Yields resulting in an oscillator indicator - which successfully signals tops on the stock markets and the bear market after. Based on the area where that oscillator crosses the 0 value (down), we start topping until it comes back up. This period last in average around 1 year and is aligningt +/- with the actual top of SPX. This is a period in which stocks may consolidate or still go up - overall an area of indecission, ending bullish power etc. The actual drop always comes after that period and last up to 800 days- depending on the strength of the previous bull trend - The longer and stronger, the bigger the fall. All such corrections were hitting lower than 0.618 fib level - meaning we will hit 2200 or even 1600 (SPX). Key takeaways: - We're not in an actual Bear Market yet. - We are in consolidation meaning a pump for ath retests is possible until March 2023 +/- - After March 2023 we should start real falls until around March 2025 - SPX Bear Market Target 1600-2200 Sorry and you're welcome!
TVC:US30Y
by TheSecretsOfTrading
BTCUSD vs US01YUS10Y has been crazy lately. It has broken an all time down-trend channel and was moving just like we would like BTC to move. But anyways... Why does this affect the market ? When confidence is high, 10-year bond prices fall and yields climb. This is because investors believe they can find higher-yielding investments elsewhere and do not believe they need to be conservative. In other terms - if risk assets bad, us10y good and vice-versa. As we can tell by the chart - investors have been running away to US Government backed Treasury bond to save themselves from the drops. But what now, when we're reaching high levels? At first US10Y was driving up together with the rest of the markets - since covid's '20 crash we experienced a massive bounce (or pump) on all assets. This positive correlation has lasted until breaking the descending resistance on US10Y - since then the correlation was only negative for crypto and it is there, where risk-assets investors started saving their funds into bonds. Right now US10Y is approaching a really big confluence of resistance: ascending triangle target, long time resistance level and top of curvy channel. Crossing this is almost impossible, specially if last weeks were growing evenly week by week creating a stair-like growth . And those like to drop heavily afterwards... + we're at resistance (reminder). If US10Y bounces down now, it would mean BTC $17k was a local bottom (not long term, just for now!) and could make up all the fall it had until now as investors would re-enter risk-on assets Where would BTC bounce to ? $38k-$40k if euphoria doesn't drive it further. It was since then when BTC started falling down without retesting broken levels. Hope this helped you understand markets a little bit more today. If there's nothing new to you here - you are an MVP. Cheers! PS: Too early to judge, but if the price bounces to those levels - it would create a cup/handle pattern. All is in FED's hands now.
TVC:US10YShort
by TheSecretsOfTrading