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US10Y

US10Y: Short the next spikeFamiliar pattern for the US10Y as with the support of the 4H MA200 it is repeating the mid December +13.50% rise. In perfect symmetry a new +13.50% rise tops on the Resistance provided by the first Lower High of the down leg, same as the November 13th Lower High. The 1D technicals have just come out of neutrality (RSI = 57.935, MACD = 0.009, ADX = 33.193) and an additional short trigger will be the next time the 4H RSI turns overbought above 75.00. Our short term target is right above the Support (TP = 3.340%). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:US10Y
by InvestingScope
5
SPX | What goes up......must come down. Conservation of Energy We all know QE... The god-given gift which made everyone rich! Well, not everyone... Consumers sure took a hit. But who cares about them? We want corporations rich! And they got rich . And boy some of them did go rich... That's the beauty of the American Dream! Sure we were cheating... ...but look at all this money we made! Violets are green, dollars are green, stocks are green, everything is green! And stocks are everything! (This chart shows the stock market "dominance". How much of the wealth one can have is inside the stock market.) And now everything is inside crypto. We are all-in. In a Poker Game where The House always wins. After all that fun party, it is time for the bill, not clinton bill, not treasury bill, not dollar bill. It is time for debt to get paid. As always, nature will do it's trick... Nature seeks equilibrium. Entropy. When we cheat and inflate, it comes and deflates. Nature is a closed circuit. When some deflate, others inflate. And the cycle goes on... Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
SP:SPX
by akikostas
3
The Good, the Bad and the Ugly YieldsI have this question... Why are high yields bad? What is bad? We are in a period of big changes. There are lot's of balances changing, one of them is money. We have just passed (?) the biggest monetary experiment ever (QE) and we are about to enter the successor to that experiment, digital money. Digital money conveniently came about just at the time when hyperinflation became an expected reality. If you talked about hyperinflation 4 years ago, you were crazy, now it is expected (and perhaps actually coming). ... Instinct tells us that the unknown is a threat, rather than an opportunity. Instinct slyly and covertly compels us away from change and progress. ... -Dr. Breen In the center of the stages is the paradigm shift in yields. After decades of consistently lower yields, now we are expecting consistently higher ones. Many (including me) have prejudged themselves into be lie ving that high yields are inherently bad. I cannot conclude into what high yields are bad at. The title suggests that they have 3 faces, good bad and ugly. I can conclude that now, like always throughout history, we are rolling in a cycle. Some things have changed in unpredictable ways. This unorthodox chart shows us that this year, we have lived through something unique. Perhaps this will be the way things move forward. From the charts above I have tried hard to conclude into something. The only thing I have learned is the following: Bonds are the new equities. In QE world, lower yields made more money. How? Money printing and borrowing needs low yields for it to be popular. Immense liquidity bubbled everything and productivity skyrocketed. QE is the fuel of globalism. Equities paid out dividends, so higher equities led to even more money. In QT world, higher yields make more money. How? Money burning and lending needs high yields for it to be profitable. Money makes more money, and every day it makes even more money. Commodity producers (GOLD*PPIACO as an example) and wealthy individuals/corporations/nations can enjoy this new era. QT is the fuel of war. Everything is precious and everyone fights for it. In a globalized world, you could make money by being an intermediate entity. Now to make money you must actually own the resources and money. Rich get richer, and poor get poorer. This is the purchasing power of the consumer dollar. Poor get poorer... Poor get poorer when rich get richer. These charts above are simple to understand and analyze. Down below I will add some of my favorite charts. These charts calculate the value of commodities compared to equities or money supply. Commodity production bull-flags against equities. Commodity production bull-flags against money supply itself. The bull flag is against yields as well. True Production Cost (PPIACO*yields) is bull-flagging (?) PPIACO is used as a historical alternative to USOIL. For some reason, we cannot perform old historical calculations using oil. They show that the commodities prove a big motive for everyone. Especially to those who seek war. Would anyone in their clear mind expect WWIII to be talked about in the 2020s? With the knowledge we have collected throughout all these years, this would be out of the question! Yet, here we are, casually talking about it. Again, changes are happening but we are stuck in a cycle. All we can do about it is to understand where we are, and not constantly deceive ourselves and others into thinking otherwise. So there is a clear benefit into just realizing where we are, it is not financial profit, it is speaking truth. Conclusion? This is a zero-sum game for consumers. Also, with bonds we are committing hubris. Bonds is a mechanism that helps money itself make more money. Have you heard about the Ancient Greeks? They talked about the fact that when money makes money, it is Hubris (something like sin, only worse). Equities gave more output than there was input, if someone includes long-term dividends. You working and making money is not Hubris (according to Ancient Greeks). Making a system which enables money to make money, then you commit Hubris. Consistently higher yields will help money make even more money. Equities are facing Nemesis (compared to bonds). Bonds have just now committed Hubris. There may be many years until they face Nemesis as well. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori PS. This movie "good bad ugly" was released in 1966, a period financially similar to the one we live now.
TVC:US10Y
by akikostas
2
US10Y: Trapped inside the 4H MA50-MA200The US10Y, a major driver for Gold, is trapped inside the 4H MA50 and 4H MA200, before tomorrow's Fed Rate Decision. This shows the market uncertainty surrounding this event as investors haven't yet chosen to pick sides. That keeps 4H neutral technically (RSI = 52.167, MACD = 0.014, ADX = 27.887) and we can only trade this with careful points that will be triggered after a level is breached. A breach over the 4H MA200 is a buy (TP = 3.780 / the Resistance). A breach under the 4H MA50 is a sell (TP = 3.420 / the Support). Carefully sell on tight SL further breaches below the Support (TP = 1D MA200 and Main LL in extension). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:US10Y
by InvestingScope
4
US10Y Approaching the 1D MA50.The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) is on a 3 day rebound following a hit on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is the natural Resistance, but if crossed, we can expect a long-term peak at the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel Down pattern that started on the October 21 High. A closing below the 1D MA200 first, would largely be a long-term sell signal that could break below the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of the Channel and target the 2.510% Support (August 02 Low) and make contact with the 1W MA100 (red trend-line), which has been our long-term bearish target since October. The 1D RSI can also offer sell entries on its own Lower Highs trend-line. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
5
The QE(xperience)Quantitative Easing, a fancy way of describing a bubble, the easy way out. QE Alpha During QE Alpha, speculation lead to a massive bubble, and a painful burst. Technicals: A Fibonacci Retracement shows that price followed closely it's levels. QE Beta During QE Beta, after stabilizing from the Great Depression, and after the end of WW2, economy rose steadily. US being one of the winners of WW2 and with the Marshall Plan deal, had a big advantage compared to the rest of the world. Technicals: The 1.618 retracement proves a significant resistance from above, which behaved as the ceiling for the Great Stagflation period of 1960s. Price reached an indecision where price couldn't penetrate the 1.618 retracement, but didn't want to fall below the 1929 high. A golden bull-flag was created, which escaped to the upside in 1982. QE 1.0 After severe stagflation, a new era of progressively lower yields led to the creation of the mechanism for QE1. It's fuel ended in 2000, and for a decade, the economy had big trouble going forward. It wasn't until the GFC when the foundation was set for the birth of QE2. Technicals: We have reached the 3rd harmonic and this proves big resistance for price. During this time, a harmonic bull-flag shaped. QE 2.0 The QExperience, which until now was unknown and unnamed, had now a name. And we have lived with it until 2021. Derivatives came about and inflated what is left to inflate. Since day 1 of 2022 we are outside it's trend. Technicals: Retracements drawn using the Great Depression peaks/bottoms constitute significant support/resistance levels. Conclusion: This SPX modificator makes historical analysis of SPX more mathematically accurate and clearer to see/analyze. A new era of increasing yields leads to multiplicative problems in the QE machine. Welcome to the QT era. We are already in it, for the past year, we hope you enjoy your stay! Look at the GFC intervention. The modified SPX chart depends on yields. More about it on this chaotic, full-of-mistakes idea. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
SP:SPX
by akikostas
13
Artificial LifeWe live artificially, in a virtual world. We began this experiment when from actual currency we went to fiat. Money printing is not that simple. A debt based economy is fueled not only by money printing but also by money creation. Let's consider this thought experiment: We have three protagonists, Central Bank (CB), Private Bank (PB), and Human (HS) CB decides that she wants to run the economy, and prints $100. She creates the debt as well, so all is good. CB lends that money to PB and demands some profit (Y) which could be the current US10Y. The Private Bank then, to profit off of the loan, lends some money to a human. Let's pretend that the loan the human gets is ($100+Y). On top of that there will be another tariff that will go towards the PB, let's say again Y. From that simplified transaction, the PB makes more profit than the loan, because she lended some funds from their reserves. So the PB will earn from the human 100+Y*(100+Y) and will pay back to the CB 100+Y. Now remember, the only money in existence is the $100 that the CB made. So technically, nobody can fully pay out their obligation. Everyone is in debt and technically everyone is bankrupt from Day 1. To cover the increasing needs of humans for loans, the PB needs more money, and so lends from the CB. The second time around, the PB borrows $100+y So what the CB does is print some more money, every day we pay out our old obligations and we create more. That story you might already know. I added it because I wanted to make some calculations on it. For us to make sense of it all, we try to find out how many obligations were created from thin air. Scenario 1 If everyone is paid off, including the CB, the extra obligations are y^2+2*y. Now let's consider the percentage we gained from all of this. From a single "y" obligation, we created y^2+2*y obligations. Therefore the rate of change is (final value - initial value)/(initial value). Rate of Change = ROC = y+1 And if we plot SPX/ROC = SPX/(US10Y+1) Scenario 2 Everyone is paid off, except the Central Bank. While this might not be 100% feasible, I believe that it ends up describing much clearer today's life. Now the extra obligations (extra money) in circulation are y^2+2*y+1 And the rate of change from the single "y" obligation is: ROC = y+1+1/y And this is the plot we are witnessing now. (SPX/ROC) Conclusion @SPY_Master invented this chart SPX/(1/US10Y), linked below. Which is basically a ROC of 1/y. So the new ROC comes to fulfill the one before it, and give it a more "mathematically accurate" representation. Where does this leave us? This chart stopped on the 4th retracement. RSI is looking something more beyond precarious. It is fearful. This is another chart on how price moved the last 20 years. I will comment later on some more charts. For now, I will let the indicators speak of themselves. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
SP:SPX
by akikostas
8
Weapons of Mass Destruction"Derivatives are weapons of mass destruction" - Warren Buffett This chart calculates the gaps we have left behind. All because of massive interday futures trading. A while ago, we didn't have that many derivatives. Interday trading had very little effect. In an overleveraged economy, just how much of current prices are based on actual growth? Indices are hitting new highs, getting inflated from more and more derivative trading and leverage. Just how much of what we see is a bubble? Judging by this chart, we should go back to pre-2015 levels... Trade lightly , for this is hallowed ground. - Wall Street Grigori
DJ:DJI
by akikostas
7
Markets want their equities back.The market is longing equities, they miss them so much... Perhaps there are traders out there who actually long equities right now. And maybe they have their reasons... Yields are showing the first signs of exhaustion. Their chart by itself confirms it. In the main chart above, we see support from the 200EMA (from 2M chart like before) RSI went oversold (penetrated it's ATR channel to the downside) and is now back inside it. This is bullish. This year stochastics were absolutely glued together, it doesn't get any tighter. Now they are ready for an upwards swing. But wait. Not all is good. The "true" SPX chart (SPX*US10Y) is showing it's first signs of weakness. So we have reached the point of "diminishing returns". Any increase in equities is not providing wealth. Like before, RSI, Stochastics and KC don't help. SPX is showing signs of strength for the following months. While I expect a degree of weakness in equities, not all hope is lost. In the meantime, I expect horizontal movement for equities, and some probable growth. Beware, for the cake is still a lie. A couple of extra charts: The chart I added above, the point we missed the trendline was in December 2018. In December of 2018 was the time when Put/Call ratio and VIX took separate ways. And what did equities do after this point in time? PS. With all that conspiracy, I wander why I don't wear a tinfoil hat... yet. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. - Father Grigori
SP:SPX
by akikostas
1
Are US10Y Bond Yields really gonna plummet?With USD recently becoming a less attractive asset to hold following the recent dump and bubble burst, US10Y bond yields are not demonstrating a very appealing picture as well. Technical aspects are as follow: 1- Daily TF Cup and Handle reversal pattern 2- Uptrend lower trendline Broken 3- It has made a first Lower High and Lower Low and still pushing lower with small frame corrections King USD is in a bad shape guys with continuous loss of investor interest. Plan your trades accordingly, Best of Luck and Happy Trading :-)
TVC:US10YShort
by Uzi-Trades-Forex
What does RSI look like?Don't mind me, I am just messing around... I did an experiment a while ago, which I now repeat as a standalone idea. The method is simple, draw some "meaningful" trendlines on RSI which contain 3 touches with RSI. The 3 points on which RSI touches the trendline, draw a curve on the price chart. You now have a beautiful chart. Some experienced traders/coders out there could make an indicator that creates channels on RSI, which translates them on the price chart. With this comparison, we see what RSI is reading, how it is working. We can better understand what RSI trendlines translate to price. Moral of the chart: Oil price could be bull-flagging. I am reposting this because this is beautiful, harmonic... organic in a way... I added an extra line on this one. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
NYMEX:CL2!
by akikostas
2
Yield Curve for 1/19/2023The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note, seen as a proxy for global borrowing costs, bottomed around 3.3%, the lowest since September 2022, as mounting fears of a sharp economic downturn and prospects of a less aggressive Federal Reserve boosted appetite for government debt. Data released Wednesday showed that Americans curbed spending while business investment fell, heightening concerns that the economy may be moving closer to recession. At the same time, producer prices slid by the most since the pandemic's start, offering further evidence that inflation had already peaked while giving the Fed room to slow its monetary tightening. Money markets are now pricing an almost 95% chance that the US central bank will hike rates by 25 basis points in February. Still, hawkish remarks from several Fed policymakers highlighted that the fight against inflation is far from over. US 2 Year Note Bond Yield was 4.14 percent on Thursday. The Dow lost more than 200 points on Thursday, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 were down roughly 1% as investors fled equities over concerns about a looming recession. The labor market remained tight, with the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits falling last week to the lowest in four months, throwing some cold water into expectations that the Fed will pivot away from its aggressive stance. At the same time, recent data showed retail sales, producer prices, and industrial production fell more than expected in December, exacerbating worries of a slowdown in the world's largest economy. Even after such dismal data, the US central bank kept its foot on the pedal, with Boston Fed President Susan Collins among the latest policymakers to warn that rates must rise further to bring down inflation. On the corporate side, consumer products giant Procter & Gamble declined 2% after reporting a decline in sales volume. Gasoline futures continued their upward trend toward $2.6 per gallon, the highest level in two months, tracking gains in other energy-related commodities on optimism about future fuel demand. On the supply side, OPEC and its allies decided in December to stick with their policy of curtailing oil output, restricting global supplies by 2 million barrels per day until the end of 2023. Meanwhile, the latest EIA report showed that gasoline inventories in the US rose by 3.483 million barrels in the week ending January 13th, compared to analysts' expectations of a 2.529 million build.
FX:XAUUSD
by TayFx
Gold Portfolio UpdateGOLD has reached my short-term target of $1,925.62 selling 70% of my accumulation averaging $1,679.25. Similarly, the VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) reached my short-term target selling 50% of my accumulation averaging $27.96 GOLD: 14.63% profit of 10% portfolio equity GDXJ: 44.83% profit of 5% portfolio equity I am keeping liquidity in Gold as my long-term outlook remains bullish and to hedge against the poor macroeconomic environment. The reason for the large profit-taking include: - Major resistance in both charts (GOLD & GDXJ) - Momentum indicator over-bought (GOLD & GDXJ) - US10Y in major resistance: -DXY in resistance and will rise once equities will stop rising Overall, trimming on gold because of great returns. My long-term outlook remains very bullish for gold and gold miners. I believe demand for gold will continue to rise in the long term because of its material and hedge against poor international economics (deglobalization, uncertainties, recession, slow growth,...) For personal recording
G
by ssavi