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US10Y

Why did I know that bond yields were going to fall?To obtain this information, we need to look at four things: -Fed Rates: The Federal Reserve's interest rates decisions can have a significant impact on financial markets and the overall economy. -US5Y (US 5-year Treasury bonds): Yields on US 5-year Treasury bonds are an important measure to assess market expectations for short-term interest rates and investor sentiment regarding the economy. -US10Y (US 10-year Treasury bonds): Yields on US 10-year Treasury bonds are also a key benchmark to evaluate investor expectations for medium-term interest rates and market risk perception. -US30Y (US 30-year Treasury bonds): Yields on US 30-year Treasury bonds provide insight into investors' long-term expectations for interest rates and confidence in long-term economic stability. Monitoring these indicators can provide valuable information about the direction of interest rates, market sentiment, and the overall health of the economy. If we observe these three together, we can see that the maximum point marked with a red rectangle, the US5Y, is the only one that violated that high. This suggests that the movement in the US5Y was a manipulation (liquidity pool), as none of the other bonds violated the high. Also, the DXY (US Dollar Index) did not violate it and has already created a lower low. This indicates that we can expect the completion of this move in the DXY and a more aggressive decline in bonds.
TVC:US10YShort
by Wiiso
2
US 10Y TREASURY: supporting 3.6%The Federal Reserve decided to halt its rate increase in June, acting exactly as the market was anticipating. However, this is not the long-awaiting Fed`s pivoting point. As per Fed Chair Powell, there would most certainly be two more rate hikes until the end of this year. This would eventually mean that the benchmark rate might go as high as 5.6% by the end of this year. So, the market was left as of the end of the previous week to digest Fed's comments and decisions during the weekend. On a positive side is that the inflation in the US is slowing down, reaching 4% in May on a yearly basis. As of the end of the previous week, the 10Y Treasuries reverted by 7 points on Friday, ending the week at level of 3.7%, after reaching 3.8% during the week. Current charts are pointing to a potential for further weakening of the 10Y yields, in which sense, the level of 3.6% might be tested for one more time in the week ahead. Still, risks to the upside in the coming period should not be overlooked.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
Can You Trade The Cycle?Hi folks, We're going to talk about trade cycles today. I hope you love learning! The strongest power is knowledge! We'll be stronger together! In economics, a trade cycle is a pattern of economic activity that repeats itself over time. It is often characterized by periods of expansion, followed by periods of contraction. The trade cycle can be caused by a variety of factors, including changes in government policy, technological innovation, and consumer demand. The trade cycle is also known as the business cycle or economic cycle. It is a recurring but not periodic fluctuation found in a nation's aggregate economic activity- a cycle that consists of expansions occurring at about the same time in many economic activities, followed by similarly general contractions (recessions). There are a number of different types of trade cycles, each with its own characteristics. Some of the most common types of trade cycles include: Kitchin cycle : The Kitchin cycle is a 4- to 5-year cycle of economic activity. It is named after Joseph Kitchin, an English economist who first described it in the 1920s. The Kitchin cycle is typically characterized by a period of rising prices, followed by a period of falling prices, followed by a period of rising prices again. Juglar cycle : The Juglar cycle is a 10- to 15-year cycle of economic activity. It is named after Clement Juglar, a French economist who first described it in the 19th century. The Juglar cycle is typically characterized by a period of expansion, a period of contraction, a period of recovery, and another period of expansion. Kondratiev cycle : The Kondratieff cycle is a 50- to 60-year cycle of economic activity. It is named after Nikolai Kondratieff, a Russian economist who first described it in the 1920s. The Kondratieff cycle is typically characterized by four phases: prosperity, recession, depression, and recovery. Now, we know what cycles are in the shape of context. There is a million dollars question. Can we trade the cycles? As a trader or an investor, we definitely can trade the cycles. However, we need to learn what the cycle is, and how can it start or end. There are a number of ways that a trader can trade the cycle. Some popular methods include: 1- Using fundamental analysis . Fundamental analysis can be used to assess the underlying value of a security. This information can be used to identify potential undervalued or overvalued securities. 2- Using cycle analysis. Cycle analysis is a more specialized form of technical analysis that focuses on identifying cycles in market prices. This information can be used to identify potential entry and exit points for trades, as well as to forecast future price movements. 3- Using technical analysis. Technical analysis can be used to identify key support and resistance levels, as well as trendlines and patterns. This information can be used to identify potential entry and exit points for trades. It is important to note that there is no one-size-fits-all approach to trading the cycle. The best approach will vary depending on the individual trader's risk tolerance, trading style, and investment goals . Final Tips: 📍 Use a stop-loss order . A stop-loss order is a type of order that automatically closes a trade if the price of a security reaches a certain level. This can help to protect your profits and limit your losses. 📍 Use a trailing stop-loss order . A trailing stop-loss order is a type of order that automatically moves with the price of a security. This can help to lock in profits and protect your gains. 📍 Be patient . Trading the cycle can be a patient game. It is important to be patient and wait for the right opportunities to trade. 📍 Don't overtrade . It is important to avoid overtrading. Overtrading can lead to losses and can also increase your risk. Bonus Chart : US10Y A task for you! Look at the bonus chart and leave your thoughts considering the correlation between US10Y and SP500 or ONS.
SP:SPXEducation
by Bullfighterr
6
US10Y - INMINENT SELL OFF US10Y - 10 YEAR BOND WEEKLY TENDENCY ANALYSIS THE 10 Year Bond Started Buying from Weekly Demand (green) Then reached Monthly Supply that generated a new/fresh weekly Supply to start reversing the price Destiny: Weekly demand (green) Stages/Weekly tendency - Stan Weistein - STAGE I: Price consolidate Between SMA 30 @ Weekly TF - STAGE II: Price break consolidation and make highs above SMA 30 @ Weekly TF - STAGE III: Price consolidate Between SMA 30 @ Weekly TF - STAGE IV: Price break consolidation and make lows below SMA 30 @ Weekly TF
TVC:US10YShort
by imktads
9
US 10Y yield chart - key levels to watch ahead of dataWe have a big week of data US inflation figures are released tomorrow and are likely to show a continued disinflationary trend, with the headline rate falling to 4.1%. This will help the Fed remain on pause for the Wednesday rate decision. The major level to watch to our mind is the tentative downtrend drawn from the October 2022 high. This comes in at 3.88. The market has been sidelined for months but is building a potential bullish consolidation pattern and that idea will be reinforced should a close above the 3.88 downtrend be seen.
TVC:US10Y
by The_STA
US 10Y TREASURY: waiting FOMC meeting As the FOMC meeting is approaching and more data on inflation pressures and the economy are released, the Treasury bond market is increasing its volatility. Current question which is in the spotlight is whether the Fed will hike rates by 25 bps or it will skip June and leave rate increase for July`s meeting. Current market consensus is that rates will remain at the same level during June. Although 10Y Treasuries started the week around 3.6%, the yield was soon increased to the level of 3.8%. It was sort of testing this level for one more time, if it can hold. Still, yields are ending the week around 3.7%. The week ahead might bring some volatility back to the markets, in case the Fed still increases rates, contrary market expectations. Certainly, inflation figures will be posted a day before the FOMC meeting, and any surprises on this side might also bring some volatility back. As per current charts, since 3.8% was tested, the market could easily slip back to the level of 3.6%, which might occur during the week ahead. At this moment, there is no indication that 3.8% might be breached to the upside. However, it should be noted, that a potential breach of 3.8% level to the upside, would certainly lead the market to the level of 4% yield for 10Y Treasuries.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
US10Y: Prepare for a long term sell.The US10Y continues to trade inside the long term Channel Down since the October 21st High and has now formed the same peak formation as then. With the 1D time frame neutral (RSI = 45.126, MACD = 58.593, MACD = -0.280), the conditions have emerged for a new long term sell. If the previous -20% decline is repeated, then target the bottom of the Channel Down on a TP = 3.100. Prior idea: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:US10YShort
by InvestingScope
7
GOLD SHORT TO 1878📉As I said before, we expect a correction on the bigger TF for Gold, before bulls come back into the market. We've seen a 5 wave bullish completion on Gold, with markets being overbought at the same time. We've also seen a CHOC + BOS, indicating markets now ready to sell off in the short term. Target 1: 1920-1877📉 Target 2: 1764-1740📉 Target 1 is our main target, before we DCA buy positions. Target 2 is a very deep retracement (bear trap) which we've only highlighted as a possibility, but not too fussed about.
SAXO:XAUUSDShort
by BA_Investments
2
US 10Y TREASURY: anticipating 25 bps hikeDebt-ceiling saga is finally over, which means that the US will not enter into technical default, which is something that the majority of market participants anticipated. It had some minor impact on the US 10Y yields. However, old topics are currently preoccupying the market, which is the question whether the Fed will increase interest rates at June`s FOMC meeting or it might be at July`s meeting. Anyway, anticipation of a further 25 bps hike is high, so the market reacted in line with its sentiment during the previous week. The 10Y Treasury yields started the previous week below 3.8%. It was quite evident on the charts that 3.8% was a peaking level at this round. Lowest weekly level was 3.57% on Thursday, however, Friday`s better than expected jobs figures pushed yields back to the level of 3.7%. This comes in line with anticipations of another 25 bps hike in June/Julys FOMC sessions. As per current charts, there is some probability that markets would push yields back to the 3.8% level, however, there is no indication, neither in fundamentals, that the yields might go higher from this level. On the opposite side, there is a lower probability that 3.5% might be tested again. However, it should be noted for the future period, that potential further rate hikes by the Fed, above currently expected 25 bps, might drive 10Y yields toward the 4%.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
FEDFUNDS | Too TightThe point of TradingView (and being a human/trader in general) is to learn from your mistakes. I did make some mistakes. Perhaps this idea by itself is another mistake. But I cannot do any different. I must speak out about what I see. For the past year I tried to understand the pressures that are pushing prices higher, equities lower. It is important in analysis to avoid the mass, the "common truth". We all have expected a future of uncontrollable inflation, extreme prices and The Great Reset. The place where everything is too expensive to buy, and we will have to live with coupons. While some of these may come, it is important to analyze what isn't coming. Oil prices have been paired with the dollar (with the petrodollar). Many expect oil prices to explode even further, while "dollar is losing value" and "hyperinflation is imminent". Some charts however show a different picture... WIth the 2M chart warning of downward swing, and with the 3M chart showing divergence, the future of oil may not be as explosive as we may believe. But that is in relative terms. The strength of money seems fated to increase a lot more. Which in relative terms will constitute oil cost to be viable. In the main chart, it appears that oil is moving into what appears to be a Wyckoff Distribution. And oil is not the only one who will have trouble with the high-yield environment. Until now, the usual equity-bond investment scheme has performed tremendously. This trend is now changing. With a significant trend violation that occurred last year, it seems that we are entering a new period of investment strategies. From bonds as a hedge against equity weakness, investors should seek alternatives. The old way of doing things is broken. Commodities will be playing a significant role in the future of investments. It is in our power to find the new way of doing things. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori P.S. A link to the indicator I am using.
NYMEX:CL2!
by akikostas
GOLD SHORT TO 1878📉We are still short on Gold for just a little bit longer. However, we can see that Gold is struggling with its bearish momentum. Wouldn't surprise me to see a liquidity grab to the upside. But overall, we are still BEARISH. On 14th June, we have the Federal Reserve announcing the next interest rate decision. They are expected to hike rates again by 25BPS which is negative for Gold. What we might possibly see beforehand is institutional investments pushing Gold back up towards the $2,000+ region, so they can sell it off from a higher price.
SAXO:XAUUSDShort
by BA_Investments
1
US 10Y TREASURY: peaking at 3.8%? During the previous week the US Treasury yields were under influence of both debt-ceiling ongoing negotiations without an actual deal, and posted PCE data. As officially released data on PCE shows higher than expected monthly output of 0.4%, it heated expectations of market participants that the Fed will most probably continue with further rate increases of 25 bps in June`s meeting. Reaction of the market was an increase of Treasury yields, where 10Y bond yields increased from 3.6% up to 3.8%. Insecurity is still high on the market, so it might be expected that bond yields will stay elevated during the following period of time. At this moment, there is no indication on charts that yields might go higher, reaching 4%, so at this moment there is a sort of peak at level of 3.8%. Still, if the Fed continues to increase interest rates, a 4% might easily become a target of 10Y bonds. For the week ahead the most important to watch is potential debt-negotiation deal, as the US might enter into default as soon as June 5th, as per Treasury Secretary Yellen. Hopefully, this will not be the end scenario. If deal is accomplished, the yields might revert a bit to the downside, probably to the level of 3.6%.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
US10Y Approaching the top of the Channel Down. Sell opportunity.The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) is approaching the top of the (blue) Channel Down pattern, which was our bullish target on our last trade ten days ago (see chart below): Despite not having hit it yet, we decide to close this long trade as we see more value in starting a sell-near-highs approach now. There is also a diverging Channel Down (dotted lines) involved and the maximum technical top that the price can make without breaking any pattern is the top of the Rectangle (4.090% Resistance). That will be our 2nd and final sell entry. Pay attention to the 1D RSI also, which is approaching the overbought barrier (70.00) just like on February 21. Our bearish strategy targets the May 04 Low at 3.300%. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
11
Equity SpringThe Bear Extermination mission is now complete. There are no bears alive to tell the story. Last winter will be written in the history books. But remember, history is written by the winners. After all the Bears got trapped, we are left with a market full of neutrals and bulls. The most extremist of bears are gone. Negligible now the effect of the baby bears. Spring season greets the only ones left alive. Last year Bears got scammed. Panic ensued when equities began dropping rapidly. Little did they know, that what they lost in Equity value, they gained in Dollar value. Investors' sentiment can easily get played. And it can easily be measured. The incredible thing about the chart above, the Equity Put Call Ratio, is that it proves the overwhelmingly negative sentiment that exists now. Everyone "braces for impact", volatility is reaching incredible lows because nobody trades, expecting the crash to come any day now. Low volatility doesn't necessarily lead to higher volatility. Spring is the best season for traders. It may very well have come and passed, and we haven't realized it. Equities have indeed slowed down. But perhaps they are now moving as slow as it gets. It is certain however that many more springs will come and go... A trader must be wise, and adapt in the new balances. One used to profit indefinitely from the perfect equity-bond investment strategy. Now this does not work. Bonds will get bust! And money will flow out of bonds and seek other shelter. Now one can get rich just by holding onto fiat currency. Gold "currency" is fighting for survival... While crypto is beating most kinds of investments. It seems that money is flowing out of Bonds and Gold, and into Equities and Energy. The message is clearly written. Either you find the truth by yourself, or you listen to what others have to say. Just make sure to listen to the right voice. May the truth be your guidance, not wealth. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori P.S. There are two ways to become wealthy. Theft and inheritance. Aristotle Onassis, Billionaire. P.S.2. Buffett longs oil.
TVC:NDQ
by akikostas
7
US 10Y TREASURY: 4% is far away?The US Treasury yields were under influence of Fed Chair Powell's speech in Washington as well as ongoing negotiations regarding the debt-ceiling. Although Powell did not mention anything new in his speech over a potential monetary move in the future period, still, Lorie Logan, a Dallas Fed President, made a comment as of the end of the previous week, that monetary data are still not justifying the halt in Fed's rate hike. Market reaction was imminent, so the 10Y Treasuries surged by 7 bps to the highest weekly level at 3.72%. Still, yields are finishing the week around short-term support at $3.6%. As long as insecurity in markets holds, and further rate hikes are not clearly communicated with the market, it could be expected for 10Y Treasuries to be elevated. The major resistance line at 3.6% has been breached on Friday. This means that the market will start week ahead by testing this level for some time. On the other hand, news on the debt-ceiling negotiations would certainly have an impact on Treasury yields, which might bring some volatility back on the market. On the opposite side, a clear break of 3.6% resistance has opened a way for a 4% next resistance. It should not be expected for this level to be reached in the week ahead, but in case that Fed continues with rate increases, a 4% might easily become the next target.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
SPX/DJI: A Peculiar CorrelationPrice action discounts everything. The most important included. It discounts prejudgement. Price discounts everything every time... ...except when we don't want to allow it to change our hypotheses. High yield rates are synonymous with recession. We are convinced that high yield rates is the thing the majority hates. From this chart above, we conclude that this may not be happening after all... The majority (500 SPX companies) is growing against the minority (30 DJI companies) in periods when yield rates consistently rise. Everything is relative. Recession is relative. Bubbles are relative. A Big-Tech bubble was formed throughout the last two decades. Now, in a high-yield environment, this bubble is fed using derivatives. With incredible correlation, as yield rates increase, the relative density of QQQ derivatives increases. While this is an experimental calculation, only QQQ is showing this kind of derivative filling. SPX and DJI show more stable behavior. Given that in DJI most companies are Big-Tech, the following chart comes up to prove the long-term fundamentals of big vs small. Curiously, yield rates target a range of about 8%, similar to the inflationary highs. Inflation seems to be calming. Many wish rate cuts... A rate cut schedule however may signal the beginning of a recession for the US. Cutting rates will push bond prices higher. Thus, a money outflow from equities and into bonds is created. This outflow will be a cause for SPX weakness. As the SPX*yields chart suggested, a near-term recession may be coming. For the following few years, SPX seems strong as the yield-SPX/DJI correlation showed. It can take decades though for balance to shift decisively. We need both oscillators to get bearish for a convincing move. While Buffett advised investing into oil, but not all oil is the same... (High yield rates for the US will drive prices lower. Yield-SPX correlation points us to SPX bullishness in a high-yield environment) In a progressively higher-yield environment, the outflow from bonds and into equities can get immense. A US debt default will outright crash bond prices, aiding the potential for SPX to move higher. Not all is well for the US though. Money is already seeking other ventures... Don't fall for the news-driven trap. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori P.S. A US Default might not be as light as I describe. Who knows how big the scale of such an event might be... P.S.2. I am posting a link to the indicator I am using: It is highly experimental, but I am beginning to get a good grip of it. Many adjustments may follow. This indicator can be used in any timeframe, and in charts of any scale.
SP:SPX
by akikostas