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US10Y

US 10Y TREASURY: relaxation ahead?During the speech at the Jackson Hole conference in Wyoming on Friday, Fed Chair Powell only confirmed what markets already saw in FOMC meeting minutes – which is that the interest rates might go higher from current levels if the inflation remains persistent. Prior to his speech, the 10Y Treasury yields reached the highest weekly level at 4.358% and remained elevated during the rest of the week. However, some relaxation came as of the weekend, so yields finished the week at level of 4.239%. But the question remains whether this was only a short correction to the downside and if the markets finished with testing of $4.3% level? Current charts are pointing to the possibility for the 4.3% level to be tested for one more time. This might be supported by the fundamentals which will be released during the week ahead – the PCE Price Index for July and Non-Farm Payrolls for August. Still, there is no indication that yields might go higher from this level. At the same time a short reversal might bring yields back to 4.2% eventually 4.1% levels.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
US 10 Year Treasury vs USD/JPYTLDR: The US 10-Year Treasury Yield and the closely correlated USD/JPY pair can be determinants or signals of market risk. With both breaking their three decade long trends, you have to wonder is a major secular shift upon us. The USD/JPY currency pair has traditionally had a close correlation with U.S. Treasuries. The pair shows how many yen are required to buy one U.S. dollar The pair's exchange rate is one of the most liquid, not to mention one of the most traded, pairs in the world. That's because the yen, just like the U.S. dollar, is used as a reserve currency. When yields on Treasury bonds, notes, and bills rise, the Yen tends to weaken relative to the dollar. When interest rates head higher, Treasury bond prices go down, which lifts the U.S. dollar, strengthening USD/JPY prices The US 10-Year Treasury Yield and the closely correlated USD/JPY pair can be a determinants or signals of market risk. With both breaking their three decade long trends, you have to wonder is a major secular shift upon us.
TVC:US10Y
by PukaCharts
US 10Y TREASURY: 4.3% overreacted or not? Previous week was one of the rare ones on the market, where some news hit the market totally unexpectedly. Such news was revealed from FOMC meeting minutes, where it has been noted high concern of several FOMC members that inflation might be persistent due to tight job market, which could imply more rate hikes from currently estimated. Fed pivoting seems far away now than ever in the last less than two years. Market reaction was pretty negative, while US Treasury yields surged to the higher levels. 10Y benchmark rates reached level of 4.3%, still, ending the week at level of 4.25%. The week ahead should bring some market consolidation. After testing 4.3% level, yields should revert a bit to the downside. In this sense 4.10% might be an easy target, while it is still under question whether yields might return to the previous 4.0%. Still, it should be taken into account that the Jackson Hole Symposium will be held in the week ahead, as well as Fed Chair Powell's speech, which might bring some volatility back to the markets.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
A Generational Mean Reversion is now UnderwayLast week I posted my long-term perspective of the SPX cash market from inception . This is the reverse of that. I am not an economist. I'm a pattern analyst and trader. Nonetheless, as a student of the economy, I find that rarely do fundamentals align with a technical forecast. I try to encourage my members to abstain from applying linear thinking to trading the markets. Case in point was the recent release of the CPI report. Prior to the release of that report CNBC contributor, Fundstrat Partner and America's favorite perma bull, Tom Lee, was quoted as saying... "Investors should expect a "sizable rally" in the stock market following the Thursday release of the July CPI report", according to Fundstrat's Tom lee. Post CPI release, the report was fairly in line with expectations, but the market sold off, and continued to sell off. There was no massive stock market rally post CPI release. How did that make sense? It's easy to proclaim bullish calls since the last 90 years in the stock market has been pretty much a 45-degree angle up from left to right on a chart. Statically, being bullish was good for business, attracts new clients, and no one likes a pessimist. The time horizons of the two financial disciplines (Fundamental vs. Technical) are typically not aligned... unless those time horizons are long... very long . A long time horizon doesn't suit traders, they suit investors. But the more I delve into long term charts, the more I reflect on how this affects me, my family, and the generations to come. I have shared my longer term perspective on the SP500 with my followers many times. I rarely, if ever, look at bonds. I don't trade them, and in terms of making a paycheck, my time is better spent elsewhere. Except this morning I decided to look at the 10-year bond yield. To me it's just another data point supporting my overall thesis that the markets are beginning a super cycle event that will play out over the course of the next couple decades. On a recent conference call with members, I remarked that I received a direct message from a member who complained I was too bearish. I then apologized to attendees on the call because it is not within my nature to be pessimistic, or someone mired in doom and gloom. Shout out to Nouriel Roubini . But I concluded by showing my 150-year analysis of the SPX cash market on my screen via Zoom and concluded, "Unfortunately for the duration of the time you will ever know me, I will be bearish". The above chart is a typical pattern that will play out. I cannot over emphasize that the pathway outlined above is run of the mill. Nothing about the above should shock any technician. This would be the same pattern outcome on any financial instrument given the above price action...it just happens to be the 10y bond yield. But my foray into the 10y bond yield chart has me thinking the following answers apply to the below questions. Will mortgage rates come down in the short term so I can buy a house? The chart above suggests in the intermediate term, yields will continue to rise into early to mid-2024 before retreating somewhat. However, if my analysis is correct...the areas of where they are now are going to be areas of short term mean reversion back up. It is from our current rate, that all subsequent yield rises will draw support from. So, my response to that question is, the time to buy a home will not be much better than right now in my life-time...it will only get incrementally less efficient to hold such a long-term loan. With $5-6 trillion in money market funds (so called on the "Sidelines") how could the stock market decline by much with so much money available to potentially prop it up? The above chart tells me the competition for cash and cash equivalents on a risk adjusted basis has not been this disadvantaged towards the stock market since the financial crisis of 2008. In my opinion, that disadvantage will only incrementally get worst. Cash will not be deployed into stocks like generations before based on competition and the risk associated. P/E ratios, book value...none of that is front and center as it pertains to those trillions of dollars. Cash being deployed now will always be gauging the associated risk/reward. That factor makes this different from all other equity market downturns. Although so much of what I am uncovering manifests itself into our daily lives over the course of years and decades, and not weeks and months...therefore, we’re more likely to embrace apathy vs panic. Nonetheless, I do view many markets through the lenses of long term mean reversion. I am still evaluating how that perspective can best be converted into action for long term benefit. I’m optimistic I have some time…(see I’m not entirely negative). Best to all, Chris
TVC:US10Y
by maikisch
Powerful Sell Alerts on BTC/ETH/SPY ! Buy alerts on USD and % !Have to be extremely careful of alt bags if BTC and Eth are as bearish as they are BTC is the sun to the space and when it falls hard the rest will follow harder. This means that we can lose 20% - 50% - 80% value in alts fast esp the low cap high risk alts. These alerts can quickly change and new data needs to be reacted upon so have to stay up to date This can mean that current candle printing may print and unprint esp on timeframes such as the monthly when its only half way thru the month.. all we have to go off is the current data and currently that is looking bearish for btc/eth/spy and bullish for usd/yields.' If btc is the sun of the crypto space then US gov yields are the sun to the finance space With the USD and Yields close to breaking out then this is another sign of weariness to risk positions esp low cap altcoins as a the height of risky positions. Admiral Ackbar told me its a trap look These breakouts in DXY and Yields can be a trap in which price goes just above piercing resistance only to fail.. and failed moves move fast. That would be a trap but it is speculation until more confirmed data comes in. Follow and click the link in tradingview to keep up to date with the data Cheers !
TVC:US10YShort
by SoftQuant
10
GOLD short to 1878📉As I said before, we expect a correction on the bigger TF for Gold, before buyers come back into the market. We've seen a 5 wave bullish completion on Gold, with markets being overbought at the same time. We've also seen a CHOC + BOS, indicating markets now ready to sell off in the short term. Target 1: 1920-1877📉 Target 2: 1764-1740📉 Target 1 is our main target, before we DCA buy positions. Target 2 is a very deep retracement (bear trap) which we've only highlighted as a possibility, but not too fussed about.
SAXO:XAUUSDLong
by BA_Investments
Japanese Yen & USD Death Spiral In Action - YCC Yin Yang Things are getting interesting in bond land, Japanese central bank balance sheet increasing after 09 to keep US bond yields down is finally starting to show signs of fail. This system is starting to break due to investors losing faith in the system. As faith is lost US bonds are sold, as US bonds are sold Yields go parabolic, Japan has been a US proxy since 09 to keep US yields in place Stage 1 This works very well from Japan points of view due to how bad 1989 was and how the mentality of debt, leverage got destroyed essentially making the speculation market dead. It allows the Central Bank Of Japan to create money and allow cheap credit near 0% interest rates without the problem of inflation. Now since 2020 this model has broken and Japan is getting inflation this is almost red alert due to the leverage of money supply in bonds. Stage 2 US M2 / JP M2 debasement work together making the illusion the DXY is strong when in reality the US is forcing the EU / JP to debase pushing up the DXY. Japanese Bond Yields have started to break causing actual investors to dump Japan bonds and US Bonds forcing the Japan Central Bank to do hard YCC on both JP and US Bonds. BUT the increase in us interest rates has sparked even more selling of US Bonds and even more Japan YCC, the treasury debt interest is also almost at 1 Trillion. Conclusion Japanese Bonds & The US Bonds are finally in a Yin Yang death spiral feeding off each other and its starting to get out of control, Bank of Japan are even starting to panic. Japan literally cannot raise interest rates as they would blow up the entire system due to debt interest being the largest holder of US debt. The FRED will be forced to implement some type of Yield Curve Control on Japanese Debt while giving Japan time to Yield Curve Control the US Debt, meanwhile? Bitcoin is actually moving in correlation with the Japanese Central Bank Balance sheet. QE To Infinity is closer than people think for those who don't know the US bond market is valued at $51tn. Japan valued at $12.3tn This market will have to be forced into QE / YCC as the bonds are the collateral for the world banks if they fail the world fails.
TVC:US10Y
by FederalXBT
US 10Y TREASURY: gearing to revert?The latest macro data are showing that the inflation is easing, however, it remains sticky. There is a lot of discussion among economists lately, whether CPI will remain on its downtrend, or we could expect another spike in inflation figures in the coming months. The PPI index posted during the previous week is showing that the inflation might stay resilient for some time. Investors ended the previous week digesting these mixed data. At the same time, the US Treasuries reacted with modestly higher yields. 10Y Treasuries ended the week at level of 4.15%, while were traded around 4% during the week. The next Fed move cannot be anticipated with a higher level of certainty as it was for the FOMC July session because of currently mixed data. Fed Chair Powell is continuously stressing that Fed decisions will be data driven. In this way the market also reacted on Friday`s session to PPI data, anticipating another rate hike by the Fed. Markets were close to the level of 4.2%, which is significant in a sense, that it might further open a path for yields to reach 4.4% as they did last time in October 2022. However, for the moment there is a much higher probability that yields will revert a bit toward the 4.0% in order to test this level for one more time.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
US 10Y TREASURY: just a short easing?Surprising news hit the market during the previous week, when rating agency Fitch announced that it has downgraded the US government long-term debt credit rating by one notch to AA+. Market reacted with a negative sentiment. Equity markets went to downside, while Treasury yields went to upside. US 10Y Treasuries moved from 3.9% up to the highest weekly level at 4.2%. Still, yields have ended the week at level of 4.0%. A move above 4% opened a path toward the 4.4% level, where yields were last standing during October last year, however, there is still time in the future until this level is reached again. For the moment, markets are focused on US inflation data which will be released during the week ahead. Depending on the results, some market volatility might be expected, especially, considering that posted average hourly earnings showed an increase of 0.4% for July. The level of 4% will be tested at the beginning of the week, with some probability that 3.9% might be reached. At this moment charts are not pointing that yields might go lower from this level.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
USD/JPY: Fundamental Economic Analysis for Fri 8/4/23The recent decline in the value of the Japanese yen against the US dollar was halted at around 142.5 to the dollar as investors continued to assess the impact of the Bank of Japan's policy adjustment after it loosened its grip on interest rates and allowed the yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds to climb above the upper limit of 0.5%. Recently, the Bank of Japan allowed the yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds to go over the previous maximum of 0.5%. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) did not change its policy interest rates at its July meeting but did take steps toward more adaptable yield curve management. This was seen as a warning that it would not rigidly uphold the 0.5% maximum limit on the 10-year yield. If the Bank of Japan (BOJ) were to take an unexpected step for the first time since Governor Kazuo Ueda assumed office, it would likely promote wagering on the continuation of policy normalization. For months, investors have speculated that Japan's central bank, the only major one to adopt a dovish stance, could cave in the face of mounting pressure on the country's bond yields and currency from persistent inflation and rising global interest rates. Rising global interest rates have put pressure on Japanese yen and bond yields, leading to this conjecture. Following a credit rating downgrade in the United States and a major run-up in rates on United States Treasury securities, a wave of risk-off emotion swept through the market, sending the Nikkei 225 Index and the wider Topix Index down by week's end. Both the Nikkei 225 and the Topix Index rose on Friday, with the former ending the day at 32,193.3 and the latter at 2,275. Investors kept an eye on the yen and JGB rates while the Bank of Japan convened the previous week and made adjustments to the policy that governs the yield curve. Major components of the Nikkei 225 index posted gains on Friday, including Nippon Yusen (3.1%), Toyota Motor (1.3%), Mitsubishi UFJ (1.8%), SoftBank Group (0.7%), and Nippon Steel (1%). Meanwhile, despite reporting higher sales and operating profit for the second quarter, Nintendo's stock fell 2.9%. Sales at Keyence were down 0.4%, at Renesas Electronics they were down 4%, and at Fast Retailing they were down 0.3%. Following a credit rating downgrade in the United States and a major run-up in rates on United States Treasury securities, a wave of risk-off emotion swept through the market, sending the Nikkei 225 Index and the wider Topix Index down by week's end. Both the Nikkei 225 and the Topix Index rose on Friday, with the former ending the day at 32,193.3 and the latter at 2,275. Investors kept an eye on the yen and JGB rates while the Bank of Japan convened the previous week and made adjustments to the policy that governs the yield curve. Major components of the Nikkei 225 index posted gains on Friday, including Nippon Yusen (3.1%), Toyota Motor (1.3%), Mitsubishi UFJ (1.8%), SoftBank Group (0.7%), and Nippon Steel (1%). Meanwhile, despite reporting higher sales and operating profit for the second quarter, Nintendo's stock fell 2.9%. Sales at Keyence were down 0.4%, at Renesas Electronics they were down 4%, and at Fast Retailing they were down 0.3%. The final June Au Jibun Bank Japan Services PMI reading was 54.0, up from the flash print of 53.9. The indicator stood at 53.8 in July of 2023. Despite the services sector expanding for 11 straight months, the most recent figure was the worst since January. This was because new orders grew at their slowest pace in six months, while employment fell after rising for five months straight. For the first time in a year, the total amount of outstanding business fell, with the rate of fall being modest but the fastest seen since April 2022. The quantity of unpaid invoices has dropped for the first time ever. Meanwhile, demand from outside rose at one of the fastest rates recorded during the period, reflecting sustained overseas demand for travel and tourism. For the first time in three months, inflation had a role in driving up operational costs. Energy, fuel, raw materials, and wages might all have played a role in this increase. In conclusion, confidence did not decrease; nevertheless, optimism did fall to its lowest position in five months. The article cites Markit Economics as its reference. Final June 2023 Au Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing PMI reading of 49.8 was below July 2023's revised reading of 49.6. The initial July 2023 flash reading was 49.4, however this was amended up to 49.6. Even while output and new orders have both been falling by small amounts, the most recent report indicated that industrial activity has contracted for the sixth time this year. For the sixth time since the new year began, manufacturing output fell. This was the slowest monthly decline in international sales in the previous nine months, despite the fact that international sales had dropped for the seventeenth straight month. The labor force has increased for the 28th consecutive month, and although job queues have been shrinking for the last 10 months, the pace of decline has slowed to its lowest point since October 2022. The current contractionary cycle was also stretched by one year due to the volume of purchases. The cost side had some of the smaller rises in input prices since February 2021, and the overall increase was about in line with the long-term average for the series. While the overall inflation rate remained high, the charged-price inflation was constant after hitting a 21-month low in June. With higher hopes for further demand improvement and the launch of novel new items, confidence is at its best point in the previous year and a half. The reference is to markit economics. ( The Au Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing PMI is compiled by S&P Global from monthly survey responses from purchasing managers at a panel of more than 400 companies. The Japanese location of these buying managers. The flagship statistic is the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which is a weighted average of the following five indices. Here are the relevant measurements: Incoming Orders (30%), Production (25%), Staffing (20%), Vendor Turnaround (15%), and Inventory (10%). The Suppliers' Delivery Times Index is inverted to make the PMI calculation easier. Because of this, its movements will be in sync with the other indexes. (The index may take on values between 0 and 100; any value over 50 implies expansion over the prior month, while any value below 50 suggests contraction.) In June 2023, Japan's unemployment rate declined to 2.5% from 2.6% in the previous month, which was in accordance with predictions made by market experts. The unemployment rate fell to its lowest level since January, with the number of unemployed falling to 1.73 million and the number of employed rising by 191,000 to 67.55 million. A total of 69.27 million Americans are now actively engaged in the labor force, up by 144,000 from a year ago, while the number of individuals not working fell by 60,000 to 40.98 million. The percentage of the population actively looking for work rose to 63.1% in June from 63.0% in the same month a year ago. The impact of seasons on this growth is unknown. The unemployment rate was 2.6% a year ago when we last checked. Meanwhile, in June, there were 1.30 job openings for every 1.31 job seekers, a decrease from May's 1.31 to 1.30. Since July of 2022, this is the lowest it has been. Initially, this information came from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. ( The spot exchange rate indicates the current value of one currency, in this case the US Dollar (USD), in reference to another, in this case the Japanese Yen (JPY). As opposed to the USDJPY forward rate, which is quoted and exchanged on the same day but delivered and paid for at a later date, the USDJPY spot exchange rate is quoted and exchanged on the same day. ) Taylor Norboge wrote and published this article on August 4, 2023 at 13:46 UTC.
Short
by TayFx
2
US 10Y TREASURY: 3.8% would be optimal?The Fed has increased reference interest rates by another 25 bps, exactly as per market expectations. On a positive side is that the US inflation continues to slow down, which increases the probability that the Fed will soon stop with further rate hikes. At least, this is the current expectation from the majority of market participants, but whether this will be so, is to be seen till the end of this year. Fed Chair Powell promised another rate hike till the end of the year, while further hikes will depend on future macro data. The 10Y Treasury yields reached the highest weekly level at 4.04%, ending the week at level of 3.95%. The level of 4% has been tested, but it was hard to sustain this level during the week. Based on charts, a reversal is still not over, in which sense, some lower levels might be tested in a week ahead. In this sense, yields might return to the previous level of 3.8%, with a low probability that 3.6% might be tested during the week.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
US 10Y TREASURY: watch for FOMCTreasury yields ended the week lower, as investors are weighing on a next monetary move of the Fed during next week. FOMC is scheduled for July 26-27th, where the majority of market participants are expecting further increase of interest rates by 25bps. The economy is showing modest signs of slow-down, while some economists are expecting a lagging effect of monetary policy, where recession might come as of the end of this year. In this sense, they are of the opinion that the Fed might pause rate hikes at July's meeting. All these are opinions, while the final view on the US economy will be given by Fed officials after the FOMC meeting. During the week 10Y Treasury yields were mostly concentrated around 3.8% level. Although the lowest weekly level was at 3.73%, as of the weekend yields have returned to 3.8%. It could be expected for 10Y yields to continue to oscillate around 3.8% also at the beginning of the week ahead. Certainly, the crucial date during the week would be July 26th, when the Fed will announce its decision on interest rates. Depending on the outcome of the decision, yields might reach 3.7% or 3.6% levels. A move toward 4% does not seem likely at this moment, based on a technical analysis.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
Find The Swan!Nobody was prepared the time when the 2020 Black Swan came. But the location of the Swan is very interesting: First, SPX: Not very interesting of a spot... In the middle of nowhere really. Now, DJI/M2SL There has been an impenetrable ceiling for more than 10 years. We almost hit it a third time since 2008, and then the crash came. Long-term Inflation (Gold*PPIACO) divided by money earned from bonds (modified-yields*M2SL) Note that this chart above does not include equities. DJI/(modified-yields) This chart above measures the rate equities become worthy compared to the cost of money. In a sense, as the chart increases, equities take more of the form of "gold" compared to bonds. More about this in the following idea. These charts above show that the Swan occurred in a significant ceiling. A lockdown does not necessarily lead to massive wealth transfer to big companies, and an immediate crash. This chart below shows that the Swan came as an LPSY phenomenon, in the short-term recession no-one remembers. DJI*(modified-yields) vs DJI So in a sense, long-term charts prove that there was not much room above when the Swan occured. And the short-term chart proves that the event occurred at the absolute last moment , when there was no "supply" left (LPSY). The crash was so fast because there was not much volume left in circulation. So the sell-off was quick. The recovery was immediate because the 2020 Swan by itself didn't create structural issues in the economy. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori PS. I could get my account banned for spreading conspiracy and misinformation. I really don't care.
TVC:DJI
by akikostas
4