Get started

US10Y

Who's ready for a FRED 50 Trillion Balance Sheet? I Am. Japan has no completely lost control of their bond yields. Japan has completely lost control the US Yield Curve Control. The FRED paused (as I expected they had no choice). The FRED realizing they need to initiate YCC / QE / Rate Cuts before end of 2023 or we're going to see an economic meltdown. Option 1, let yields raise > mortgages blow up > bank collateral blows up bail out 100 Trillion. Option 2, start YCC / QE / Rate Cuts down > things don't blow up but spend 50 Trillion. What's hilarious is there is ZERO news coverage on this ZERO, the USA setup a YCC facility with the BOJ to patch bond yields yet the JAPANESE currency CANNOT handle it and the BOJ is starting to actually panic / tap out. People waiting for a "country" to enact the third world war, I'll give you a hint they always start when some major financial system breaks. That's this this is where we are at. Japan has a GDP of only 4.941 Trillion, if they initiate more YCC / QE they will start to turn into the Turkish Lira and then mass people are going to panic about US bonds. THERE IS ZERO chance we get to 2025 without a FRED balance sheet of over at least 30 Trillion, buckle up.
TVC:US10Y
by FederalXBT
Is this US01Y wick going to crash the crypto market ?!Obviously as money flows into cash it flows out of assets If rates on US bonds rise then the incentive to hold cash increases which dries up liquidity almost everywhere else. We are seeing very bullish signs (current data/can fail and reverse) for both US Dollar and US Yields. Which of course correlates to bearish signs for assets prices (bitcoin/stocks/real estate). US administration may want to have the pain now before US election year Rampant inflation is not great for an administration to have during an election year.. so having that curbed as much as plausible before election year is important. Which allows an administration room to create stimulus during election cycle (to win votes). Essentially get inflation in order now so they can create more inflation('stimulus') later. This would be the outlook of pushing asset prices down now so theres room to push them up coming into elections. If that US01Y wick is filled then crypto should fall Filling that wick would likely not only increase the yield curve inversion but also force asset prices lower. If it can be timed then we may see BTC price fall pre election but allow US01Y to fall come election. Which in turn allows BTC price to rise come election. This all of course overlaps with BTC halving. The important thing is to be liquid both financially and mentally to changes. If USD and rates continue to rise then dont want to be too(!) asset exposed and missing out on the USD/rate rise benefits. That said.. if USD/rates fail this break out of course dont want to miss out on asset price boom. Need to be okay either way this goes.. whilst looking for low risk opportunities to rebalance exposure with changes in the flow of capital (and data)
TVC:DXYLong
by SoftQuant
8
GOLD: Daily Analysis |Bullish Pattern|There are many considerations that can be made about Gold, and today we share some of them. In this geopolitical and economic context, Gold is an important pawn on the chessboard. If we want to understand where the price could go in the coming months, we need to understand why we got this far today (as I write the Spot price is 1925). 💡 What is really supporting prices well? The answer is very simple, operators have many doubts and uncertainties, so they buy gold, especially as long as US 10Y remains bullish: (Click on Analysis below) 💲 The US Dollar is also important in this game, and in the coming months it could even surprise us...: (Click on Analysis below) 📈 Technical Analysis Having said this, from a technical point of view, if we look at daily chart, we do not exclude a bullish harmonic structure with an interesting potential target around 2000. 🔏 Risk Management: As we showed in our latest intraday analysis, we went Long the last bearish leg on 1H chart, so it will only be necessary to move stop loss to B/E: (Click on Setup below) 🔴 What could cause this to fail? What could cause this to fail? The FED's interest rate decision and inflation data are expected next week, these events could actually change this scenario. In conclusion, even if this analysis will be correct, the path will be long and full of obstacles, so it will always be necessary to look for intraday supports and potential Reversal Patterns on small time frame every day. Thanks for your attention. Trade with care Like | Share | Comment
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TheAnonymousBanker
14
US 10Y TREASURY: time for relaxation, or maybe not?The US inflation figures were published during the previous week, which showed that it is not going to be an easy task for the Fed to bring it back to its 2% target. At the same time, oil was traded above $90/barrel with some analysts’ prediction that it might easily reach the level of $100 till the end of this year. Taking current circumstances into account, the market was able only to move in one direction – bringing 10Y Treasury yields back toward the 4.30% level, where the benchmark is finishing the week. Currently there is a bit of a tricky moment on the charts. Namely, 4.3% could be treated as sort of the resistance level for 10Y Treasury yields. But, taking into account that the FOMC meeting is scheduled for the week ahead, surprises might be possible in terms of a break of 4.3% level. However, if everything stays as anticipated by the market, then yields might come a bit back down to 4.2% levels.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
NIFTY: "My time, My Rules"Rules are blurred, game changes. Credit goes to the "Ground" reality. Four wickets in one over, no hattrick, but history is made. 50 looks like double century. Stunning Performance of a century by Siraj, a loss to both who spared time to watch, and those who failed to watch. Clearly, Siraj said "My time and My rules". Japan's increasing worries of Chinese aggression. North Korea cosy with Russia, just a week after China Visit to Russia are some uneasy moves. China says, not to use nuclear weapons is an outdated promise. Bulls here say, "My time and My rules". Clearly many important messages, but no peace for bears. Cues are negative, who cares them though. Crude is 90 plus, 10 Y yields cross new high. Data from US Michigan 5 Year expectation softens, but this inflation will remain higher for longer. Europe crude crosses 100 mark. Dollar remains elevated to the discomfort of the bulls. Our own trade deficit widens, one eye on the rupee is once again needed. Looks the resolve is to hold the range, as the last State Elections are around. Controversy surrounded about the economic data, whether it is based on income or expenditure, MOF gives clarifications. It's difficult to gauge the mood, as the Retail continues to buoy the economy though concerns remain on the path ahead. With tomorrow being holiday, today close is vital as that would confirm the robustness of the move ahead. It is one thing the Index moving up, it is altogether different if the mid and small caps give back or climb up further. Clearly the Index stocks are relatively positive than the NIFTY500 basket. Not suggesting a softer tone, but profit taking would remain the mantra. With the third week posting strong gains, it is important to look at the shape, size and space. Shape is strong, with relatively small upper and lower wicks, Size is large, Space is new High. The PIP graph shows the last half hour profit taking, the open cues can bring some more, but ideally should be bought. 20060 is the new base while this holds back to 20280-330 is the expectation. Tread cautiously, nothing to jump and pump. Broad range for the day remains 20080-20280
NSE:NIFTYLong
by sreebhashyam
Yields Spread Market Crash AstrologyYield spreads tighten and also invert leading into a recession and it is only once they start to de-invert that any sizable decline begins once all the durations have been squeezed and there is nowhere else to run/hide for market participants. The 10Y-03M curve is of particular interest compared to 10Y-02Y, which almost always leads to a crash once that cuts above 0. Current widened spreads suggest there is still time for any black swan event to realize. I would expect long duration to rally in the next 2-3 months to narrow the spread around ~5% range, this can occur with help from TGA refill that's occurring until the end of September. Once at the end of the fall, I think we will see trouble brewing in markets from high rates and short liquidity. Net-net, equities, and all risk assets can float around until late August/September before any major decline can transpire.
TVC:US10Y
by ponzialchemist
US 10Y TREASURY: reversal is still pendingThe market uncertainty of the future course of inflation and FED`s next moves continued during the previous week, especially after the news that Saudi Arabia will continue with its decreased supply of oil by 1 million barrels per month until the end of this year. The price of oil surged on this news, putting the markets back on the negative sentiment. However, Treasury yields did not make a significant reaction to this news, as investors will probably need some more time to digest potential next Fed's move. The 10Y Treasury yields started the week around 4.18% and went back to the level of 4.30%, without a strength to break this level. They are ending the week around 4.26%. Current charts are pointing that there is time for further relaxation in the 10Y Treasury yields. In this sense, the level of 4.0% is still pending to be tested. During the week ahead yields might again revert back toward the levels from the beginning of the week, around 4.2%, with some probability that 4.10% might be reached. A move toward the upside, in terms of 4.30% is unlikely at this moment, at least based on the charts.
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
50DMA and TBILLS indicating when bear market hitsHere's a closer look at a highly reliable cyclical bear market indicator. Over the past two decades, it has consistently proven itself as a trusted signal, often aligning with yield curve inversions. In contrast to employing trendlines and breakouts for precision, this chart relies on moving averages. These moving averages function in a similar manner to channels, as they calculate the mean, much like a channel does in various aspects. When there's a breakdown from this mean, it typically signifies a significant loss of support. From a fundamental perspective, this shift suggests that the market is heading towards a risk-off sentiment, leading investors towards products such as TLT due to their appealing pricing in comparison to stock valuations. The divergence we're witnessing appears unlike any we've encountered before. To return to the mean, it would require either a prolonged consolidation at higher levels for many months or a sudden and sharp downturn. I have my own theories on how such a downturn might occur, possibly triggered by an event akin to a cyber attack on financial systems, similar to the disruption caused by the COVID pandemic. However, that's a discussion for another day. In this scenario, our focus should be on reacting to developments rather than attempting to predict them. Currently, the most crucial level to monitor is a potential retest of the 4100 range on the SPX, coupled with how the yield curve reacts when it approaches its initial resistance. If a breakout occurs in these areas, it could signify an increasingly uncertain market environment. For a more detailed analysis, please refer to the chart below, which provides insights into the points I've discussed.
TVC:US03MY
by EdwinPus
This chart pattern suggests yields are going higherUS10Y remains in an established uptrend on the daily chart, and Friday's bullish engulfing candle suggests a swing low has formed and more gains are to follow. But having looked back at price action since the April low, we note that prices are yet to break the low of a bullish engulfing candle if it has formed after a pullback or period of consolidation. Granted, there are one or two of those engulfing candles that do not fit the exact description (as an open or close is out be a few ticks, meaning it has not truly engulfed). But we've relaxed the rules to note bullish candles that show clear range expansion over the prior candle. And if that pattern persists, it looks like the 10-year yield (and likely yields across the curve) are at least going to make an attempt to retest or break their cycle highs.
TVC:US10YLong
by CityIndex
US10Y Rejection not confirmed yet. Bullish unless this breaks.The U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) is having a 2-week rejection since the August 22 High that was priced marginally above the 4.336 Resistance. However both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as well as the Higher Lows trend-line that moves just below it, remain intact, maintaining the long-term uptrend. Today is the ideal spot for a new buy entry, targeting 4.365 (August 22 High). We are only willing to turn short after the price breaks below the Higher Lows trend-line and closes a 1D candle below the 1D MA50. In that case, we will sell and target 3.810 (Fibonacci 0.5 level). Notice also the 1D RSI which just hit its own Higher Lows trend-line that is holding since March 15. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:US10YShort
by TradingShot
7
US 10Y TREASURY: targeting 4.0%?The pivotal point for markets during the previous week was the release of the unemployment rate in the US for August. The rate was increased above market expectations to the level of 3.8%. This was sort of a surprise for markets, where the majority of participants revised their estimations, anticipating that Fed will not hike rates at September`s meeting. The odds for such a decision are currently very high, reaching 93%. Treasury yields also reacted with modest relaxation. The 10Y Treasury rates made a move from 4.25% down to 4.063% as of the end of the week. Current charts are pointing to a higher probability that 4.0% might be the next target for 10Y yields. This level might be tested in the week ahead. A move toward the opposite side might lead to 4.20% which could be tested for one more time
TVC:US10Y
by XBTFX
The Bear Steepener Analysis US10Y/US01YLooking ahead to the upcoming week and my market outlook: Let's begin by examining the yield curve spread, which consistently correlates with the bear steepener. This spread provides us with a valuable timetable or countdown, usually spanning 1-3 months before a breakout occurs. When this breakout happens, it typically signifies that the market has already shifted towards a risk-off sentiment. Similar pattern consolidations/breakouts occurred during most recent systemic risk offs, below is the one we've had during Covid: Dot Com s3.tradingview.com 2008 With the only exception, a major fakeout being the 1995-1998 period. Now, when we consider the VVIX/VIX ratio, it offers a noteworthy perspective on the potential alignment of this bear steepener breakout with the possibility of breaching the bottom support. Barring any unforeseen developments that could disrupt this pattern, it appears that we are receiving indications or early warnings of an impending risk-off event. Additionally, when we look at stocks above the 50-day moving average (MA), it confirms our decision to shift towards the long side just over a week ago. Moreover, there's a chance that this move could trigger a final squeeze. How long might this squeeze persist? My assessment suggests that it still has some room to run, and I would only recommend exercising caution once we start approaching the 60's in this particular indicator.
TVC:US10Y
by EdwinPus
GOLD SHORT TO $1,877 (8H TF UPDATE)📈The past week we've seen a huge pump on Gold, which hasn't come as a surprise when you consider we just closed the month of August. As most of August market was bearish, institutions start profit taking around $1,900's & closing their sells, which led to Gold retracing back up. However, Gold is still below our invalidation zone of $1,955 so we are still holding on, as market could head back lower again. If our invalidation zone is hit, we'll be taken out the markets with profits either way. We'll re-assess markets around $1,970 - $1,960 to see if price action offers another sell opportunity from higher prices📈
SAXO:XAUUSDShort
by BA_Investments
GOLD SHORT TO $1,877 (2H TF UPDATE)📈The past week & a half we've seen a huge pump on Gold, which hasn't come as a surprise when you consider we just closed the month of August. As most of August market was bearish, institutions start profit taking around $1,900's & closing their sell positions, which led to Gold retracing back up. However, Gold is still below our invalidation zone of $1,955 so we are still holding on, as market could head back lower again. If our invalidation zone is hit, we'll be taken out the markets with profits either way. We'll re-assess markets around $1,970 - $1,960 to see if price action offers another sell opportunity from higher prices📈
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDShort
by BA_Investments