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Ukrainerussia

What Will Happen to Crypto During a Recession or Stagflation?Inflation in the US markets hit 7.9% last month - while the Federal Reserve was claiming that inflation was "transitory" all of 2021, realizing the US dollar may be in risk of systemic collapse they finally started to consider the possibility of raising interest rates (it's been near 0% for almost a decade now) -- arguably their only weapon to combat inflation at this point. (As a reference, Russia's interest rate jumped to 20%+ after their stock market collapsed after their invasion of Ukraine in late Feb.) Increased interest rates means higher interest rates on loans, which is good for savings but bad for investment since loans become more expensive to do. Experts are predicting that a recession -- possibly a global recession -- is looming in the horizon. What does this mean for crypto? Given that crypto's massive jump in 2020-2021 took most people by surprise there isn't too much reliable data out there but there's a few things we might be able to discern based on a few data points: - Crypto adoption tends to be high in countries with unstable economies; the rankings vary from study to study but adoption rates in Ukraine was high, even before the war. (The US and Russia usually in the top 10.) It's interesting to note that the inflation rate in Ukraine in 2015 was almost 50% -- which makes assets like Bitcoin and other currencies much more appealing. If the major superpowers' economies become unstable, we may start to see similar patterns emerge as a result. (Japan's inflation rate has been very low for decades and their crypto adoption rates are also very low, despite being relatively friendly to the technology itself.) - In terms of raw numbers, India has, by far, the highest number of people who own crypto (~100 million+) but their inflation rate has been climbing gradually in a similar pattern to the US in 2021. (With the officials telling people the same exact story as the Federal Reserve in the US last year -- "don't worry, it already peaked." 😂). In the same vein, most developed countries are in the same boat as the US right now as the disruptions on the global supply chain (due to COVID restrictions) continues to push inflation higher almost everywhere. - In the short/medium term, the proposed solution by the Federal Reserve (a marginal 0.25% interest rate increase in March) isn't very likely to make that much of a difference until the Feds start to get more aggressive with the hikes. (Which they have considered as a possibility, but are wary of announcing since they know it may trigger a downturn in the markets.) Inflation is very likely to continue for the rest of 22', in other words. - As of 20-21' lots of money has been thrown at crypto, DeFi, metaverse, and NFT projects both in business and personal deals -- many of them tied to traditional contracts in USD or fiat. (Although typically ill-advised, some people have been taking out cheap loans for crypto.) As fiat currencies become weaker, these fiat-crypto hybrid contracts are less likely to become common place, but will still make "pure" crypto deals more appealing. We might be able to estimate how much fiat money is tied to crypto assets based on market presence - BTC is the highest, by far, followed by ETH, DOGE, ADA, SHIB, XRP, DOT, SOL, etc. Coins that relied on marketing dollars to stay afloat (since it's currently only spendable in fiat money) are likely to be the most vulnerable. - During bull runs like the ones we've seen in 20-21', marketing/hype tends to reign supreme since cheap loans and rising prices tends to create a short-term market for pump-and-dump projects. During recessionary periods, however, crypto projects with more utility is likely to come out ahead. (As Vitalik Buterin says -- he "welcomes" a crypto winter so that more serious projects can finally get the attention that they deserve.) But we don't really know if a weakened USD or fiat as a whole really will lead to a "winter" -- there is also the chance that fiat money will run to crypto as a refuge, pumping up the price as a whole. Traditional finance outsizes crypto by a huge margin, after all -- all it takes is a small % of the former to affect the latter in an exponential way.
Long
by RyanTanaka
1
What Will Happen to Crypto During a Recession or Stagflation?Inflation in the US markets hit 7.9% last month - while the Federal Reserve was claiming that inflation was "transitory" all of 2021, realizing the US dollar may be in risk of systemic collapse they finally started to consider the possibility of raising interest rates (it's been near 0% for almost a decade now) -- arguably their only weapon to combat inflation at this point. (As a reference, Russia's interest rate jumped to 20%+ after their stock market collapsed after their invasion of Ukraine in late Feb.) Increased interest rates means higher interest rates on loans, which is good for savings but bad for investment since loans become more expensive to do. Experts are predicting that a recession -- possibly a global recession -- is looming in the horizon. What does this mean for crypto? Given that crypto's massive jump in 2020-2021 took most people by surprise there isn't too much reliable data out there but there's a few things we might be able to discern based on a few data points: - Crypto adoption tends to be high in countries with unstable economies; the rankings vary from study to study but adoption rates in Ukraine was high, even before the war. (The US and Russia usually in the top 10.) It's interesting to note that the inflation rate in Ukraine in 2015 was almost 50% -- which makes assets like Bitcoin and other currencies much more appealing. If the major superpowers' economies become unstable, we may start to see similar patterns emerge as a result. (Japan's inflation rate has been very low for decades and their crypto adoption rates are also very low, despite being relatively friendly to the technology itself.) www.statista.com - In terms of raw numbers, India has, by far, the highest number of people who own crypto (~100 million+) but their inflation rate has been climbing gradually in a similar pattern to the US in 2021. (With the officials telling people the same exact story as the Federal Reserve in the US last year -- "don't worry, it already peaked." 😂). In the same vein, most developed countries are in the same boat as the US right now as the disruptions on the global supply chain (due to COVID restrictions) continues to push inflation higher almost everywhere. - In the short/medium term, the proposed solution by the Federal Reserve (a marginal 0.25% interest rate increase in March) isn't very likely to make that much of a difference until the Feds start to get more aggressive with the hikes. (Which they have considered as a possibility, but are wary of announcing since they know it may trigger a downturn in the markets.) Inflation is very likely to continue for the rest of 22', in other words. - As of 20-21' lots of money has been thrown at crypto, DeFi, metaverse, and NFT projects both in business and personal deals -- many of them tied to traditional contracts in USD or fiat. (Although typically ill-advised, some people have been taking out cheap loans for crypto.) As fiat currencies become weaker, these fiat-crypto hybrid contracts are less likely to become common place, but will still make "pure" crypto deals more appealing. We might be able to estimate how much fiat money is tied to crypto assets based on market presence - BTC is the highest, by far, followed by ETH, DOGE, ADA, SHIB, XRP, DOT, SOL, etc. Coins that relied on marketing dollars to stay afloat (since it's currently only spendable in fiat money) are likely to be the most vulnerable. www.globaldata.com - During bull runs like the ones we've seen in 20-21', marketing/hype tends to reign supreme since cheap loans and rising prices tends to create a short-term market for pump-and-dump projects. During recessionary periods, however, crypto projects with more utility is likely to come out ahead. (As Vitalik Buterin says -- he "welcomes" a crypto winter so that more serious projects can finally get the attention that they deserve.) But we don't really know if a weakened USD or fiat as a whole really will lead to a "winter" -- there is also the chance that fiat money will run to crypto as a refuge, pumping up the price as a whole. Traditional finance outsizes crypto by a huge margin, after all -- all it takes is a small % of the former to affect the latter in an exponential way.
Long
by RyanTanaka
3
Stock Market EffectWeekly Time-frame Still bearish in weekly Time-frame, we are bouncing in 0.618 and 0.786 fib lines support and resistance. We need to hold the area of support at $37,285 or lest we can expect more to the downside. Awesome Oscillator (AO) is still Bearish Saucer. If we break the support we can see a drop to $28,667. once the stock market start dropping the Bitcoin can have crash up to 80% which it can reach up to $10k. 1D Time-frame We are still in the bouncing area we had a long wick yesterday i hope all have taken profit. AO is bearish, Greed and Fear is 21. This is bullish for our trade. As long as we are above the support there is still chance to pump to the upside. 4H Time-frame We are currently in a retracement again preparing for a massive move to the upside with long wicks to the upside during bearish market is normal if we break the resistance then we can make it as the new support. AO is bullish, don't give up yet. our trend opened lower high and lower low though but still we are in a Bullish Awesome Oscillator. A mirror from the previous trade which would most likely to happen ride the uptrend. We will discuss more on the possibility on our Live. Stay tune and check with us! Want more insights before US market open? Hit Like, Share, and Subscribe for more daily trading tutorial & cryptocurrency news Trade Scholar, the best cryptocurrency educational community online! Find the content above difficult to understand? Feeling lost about how to trade? Want to learn how to do your Own Price Prediction? We endeavour to share you our investment knowledge & experience in order to help you starting your path to financial freedom. Follow, Subscribe & Join our Community to trade together! Disclaimer: Above Technical Analysis is pure educational information, not Investment Advice. The information provided on this post does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice and you should not treat any of the website's content as such. Do conduct your own due diligence and consult your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
BINANCE:BTCUSD.PShort
by Trade_Scholar
BTCUSDT - LAST LEG UP TO ALL TIME HIGHS - 80K+ [2022]Long term up trend was broken @ 24,295 Grabbed support @ 29.2k then bounced to ATH's Sort of looks like a double bottom currently on this new trend line that was once resistance and broken @ 19.7k. Double bottom (Eve & Adam which is a higher low DB) isn't yet confirmed, will need to close green above 45.8k on the weekly. If confirmed the completed db pattern will test it left leg @ 67.5k, from there ATH's will be tested, not 100% positive we will reach above 69k but 67k - 70k will be tested for sure if DB is confirmed. KEY notes: $38,8xx - btc has broke and bounced off this price area before reaching 69k ATH ! on july 26, 2021 currently we are hovering just below that price range and on this weeks candle close, if we close above this price specifically $38,888, history will repeat it self. currently in a strong up channel making HIGHER LOWS! respecting the up channel trend lines. Price action also is getting smaller and smaller and seems to be reacting to a rising wedge closing in right above 70k area. Currently at a low, which will probably test the next high before crashing to LOWER LOWS! which indeed will bring btc to 70k+ for its last leg UP. if this weeks candle closes above previous star wick @ $40,348 this will be a morning star candle pattern which will give us a run up and confirming the potential double bottom pattern (Eve & Adam aka H/L DB) - and DB pattern will test its left leg down coming from 69k !
Long
by exe393
5
GOLD NFP MOVEMENT AND FORECASTAs based on the recent Non-Farm Payroll data which came 678k which is 211K more then last month's data and around 271k more then forecast which make the economic condition of US strong as a result we can possibly see bullish trend in US dominated currency pairs although on the other hand the situation between Ukraine and Russian is getting worse which is giving a direct fuel to the prices of commodities like GOLD which can be seen always inverse from USD while these fundamental movements stretching out the market we can catch sight of consolidating movements with momentary spike in GOLD prices. As the technical Indicating strong Buy for GOLD however Fundamentals are opposing the same while following the nearest resistance of around 1949 and support of 1943.
FXOPEN:XAUUSD
by FiscalAutonomy
1
$SPY Prediction Update, technical's are on-point. Good Afternoon Traders, Looking back to previous technical analysis (from January), yet again, proved to be on-point. This is good news for technical traders. The Ukraine-Russia conflict is still trading on solid technical foundations. If you're a beginner in this realm, or would like to improve, try out the UPRIGHT Suite for assistance. See below (then). (Now) Next analysis, coming soon. Follow, like, share, look at my pro, etc. Cheers, Mike (UPRIGHT Trading)
AMEX:SPY
by UPRIGHTTrading
GBPPUSD Short the reasons for this trade borthers on two main factor namely; fundamental event and technical break of structure... in accordance to the fundamental base, the ongoing war between ukraine and russian has a bit weigh on eurozone currencies and a strong buying mood for the dollar given us a short term opportunity to go on short on this current pair. for the technical point there's a break of support and already given us a retest for a possible downtrend to our tp or very close.
Short
by richyworld
Will the Oil Boom Last? Watch the US / Saudi relationshipHow long will the oil boom last? How much of an impact will Russian isolation have on the oil market and overall inflation? Biden has been cool to the Saudi's since he took office, after Trump cultivated an unusually close relationship with them. Unlike Biden, Trump seemed to have a predatory view of oil prices. I mean, he would do whatever it took to keep gas cheap. The longer this debacle (and its aftermath) goes on in Ukraine the more opportunity and incentive the US will have to tank the oil market. With such a large portion of GDP made up of oil, Russia is very susceptible to a deflationary spiral in oil cost. To a certain extent, oil is financing Russia's military operation since the more trouble they cause, the more their primary export is worth. While the initial inclination of the US is to isolate Russia and its oil sales this move may benefit Russia to some extent, since supply in the world will be lower they'll still likely be able to make deals to move their oil through neutral countries. However, the more this bites at the American inflation problem, the more pressure there will be to increase output. Most of the incentives will run toward increasing output; Russia will hurt more if its primary export drastically decreases in value, and the move will alleviate some inflation in western countries. After all, who will even remember why Biden has shunned the Saudis? When gas is $5+ will you cry about Yemen, especially if you can get cheaper gas and hurt Russia at the same time? Will you think of Khashoggi if it helps Ukraine? Your moral scruples will be intact and gas can be cheaper! And wtf the Climate? Who cares. That is the political calculus of the next 2 years. When you see Washington getting closer to the Saudis then be skeptical of oil prices. They can really make Russia pay this way. Of course, domestic producers have been betrayed so much over the past decade that they won't just come back online; they'll need assurances. Also, just for 'fun', here are some more predictions (more like possibilities): - Without a critical mass Belarussian forces joining, Russia will not take Kyiv and the government will remain intact, but will hold the majority of the eastern country. - Even if Russia can take Kyiv on it's own, it will take so long that it will undermine its bargaining position and be a strategic (at least politically) defeat. - Trump will at least make a statement about offering to 'broker' a peace of some sort. No one will accept. - Inflation will get bad enough that the Biden admin will treat with the Saudi's and try to smooth over their bad relationship in order to convince them to put pressure on oil prices. - The US will contemplate how they can engender the same resistance morale in Taiwan and there will be talk of resurrecting something like the TPP (Obama era) in order to provide a coalition to oppose China economically.
AMEX:USO
by PreferredStonk
1