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Medium Term Outlook on Dubai Financial Market General IndexOn October 2015, I had presented a scenario which depicts an ongoing correction since the top in 2014.  During that post, I indicated that the DFMGI is undergoing what is known under Elliott Wave terms as a double Zig Zag.  The count, I present today does maintain the same view, with the count now near completion. The duration of the correction  has gone beyond what was expected, considering the expectations for Oil and commodities in general was to start a rally by 2016, I refer to the posts on my blog on 26th October, 2015 "Long Term Outlook on USD", and subsequent posts on metals in Q2 2016 calling for early phase of a new uptrend in metals. The DMFGI did join the start of the Oil rally in 2016, however it turned out to be just a continuation of the Zig Zag correction forecasted. Today, we are at the very last stages of that correction and we should be soon in accumulation phase for a new uptrend that is at least equal to the rally that took place between 2012 and 2014. That said, there is an alternate scenario which I am not presenting today, that would see the correction prolonged for at least another year or two. In this alternate scenario the index would still rally in 2019 but fails to break 3740 and and reverts lower in one last leg of of decline. This short term scenario would be looked into, judging how the rally in 2019 will look like. Should the rally in 2019 break 3740 to the upside then below count will be confirmed. On short term, we can yet expect for one more small push lower which would then conclude the pattern or alternatively we would get a small correction upwards to 2900-3000 levels over next months extending into January 2019 when prices would then revert lower for one last push into lows of 2400 +/-, which is the scenario considered below. In either case we are looking at a sizable move upwards to start in Q1 2019.  For the time present, I would be looking for confirmations to indicate that an uptrend has started. We have early soft confirmation with the MACD divergence, but we would also require confirming price action which so far is absent.
DFM:DFMGILong
by Markism
1
Trade deadlock, Saudi tanker attacked, expert opinionsThe trade negotiations between the US and China are still at an impasse. The reason is - the Trump’s position, who accused China of violating the agreements. China, in turn, accused the United States of having provoked a negotiation crisis. Well, sum up there is a complete halt in the negotiation process, the expected counter-actions on the part of China and rather gloomy prospects for the world economy ahead. As for counter-action. China announced that it will increase duties on US goods in the amount of $ 60 billion. The Ministry of Finance of the People’s Republic of China issued a statement announcing that from June 1, 2019 duties on a number of American goods will be increased from 5% to 25 % Yuan naturally has dropped, reaching the lowest values against the dollar since December 27. According to analysts, this decline will not be limited and it is worth preparing for the assault on the mark of 7 yuan per dollar (the minimum value of the yuan since the global financial crisis). Yuan was not the only victim - stock indices declined steadily. In general, the conditions for Japanese yen and gold growth are more than favorable. So, we continue to recommend its buying. As for the US dollar, recently, any uncertainty of investors leads to its growth: the markets perceive the dollar as another variation of safe-haven assets. That is why a lot of managers of famous funds unanimously declare that the dollar is still the king in the foreign exchange market and its buying should be preferred. Moreover, the advice is buying it against the currencies of developing countries, for example, the Turkish lira, the Argentine peso, and the same Chinese yuan. It is simply to understand what is happening currently, the escalation of trade wars causes damage primarily to the economy of developing countries, therefore its currencies will be the first to take the brunt. Saudi tankers among 'sabotaged' ships off the UAE coast. Taking into account the already tense situation in the Middle East, the oil market reacted to this force majeure as a completely natural reaction in the form of price increases and oil. But the growth did not last long and the day closed with a “black candle”. We will keep up to date and continue to look for points for oil sales. By the end of Monday, our trading preferences have changed: we will look for points for buying the euro against the dollar, selling oil and the Russian ruble, as well as buying gold and the Japanese yen, but we will wait a little with Australian and Canadian dollars buying so far.
Long
by Trade24Fx
XRP/BTC - UAE Central Bank Block Chain Partnership Announcement I am slightly shocked that there are very few charts dealing the latest announcement with Saudi Arabia's Central Bank signing a partnership deal within the last 24 hours. This is a MASSIVE bull FLAG as an early indicator; especially given XRP's prevalence of professionalism and partnership with major global banks. This is huge in my opinion. My chart may not be reflective of actual movement, as it can be so difficult to ascertain future price movement when such big news comes into play. For this reason, I am coming from a more fundamentalist point of view, with a few technical indicator and techniques used to add validity however; i expect a mammoth spike in price, with a HUGE bull run, and incredibly hard to predict, I feel at this moment; historical candle trending combined with levels of support, resistance and fib levels, amalgamated with fundamentals, is the best way forward for now to get a handle and prediction on anticipated valuation on what WILL be a significant price break out. The last pennant highlighted in red continued on to a bearish trend however; the current trend, is staying within the larger pennant with the exception of a few candles leading astray out of the pennant, only to quickly return. Again, there a signals EVERY where. Do not MISS this/
Long
by cryptodisciples