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TSM

piling up bad news on semi conductor industryAMD is on a really important zone here. if this breaks, its going to be a disaster for it. we can see 59-60. most of the semi conductor names like AMAT, NVDA or just semi etf SMH are pretty close to 200 weekly moving range. we might see it next week. MU reported ok numbers for this quarter but their guidance is awful. • They slashed EPS by 40% and REV by 20% in guidance. • Operating margins of this quarter are inline but they guided way lower operating margins for next quarter which shows the pressure on their raw materials and inventory side. • Operating cash flows for this and next quarter are also a miss but thats not surprising considering their margins going down. • Also, CEO on call said the demand is weaker for semi’s right now which probably is why semi’s have been getting hit in the last week or so. The biggest issue i see on MU’s ER is declining mobile sales. They have had y/y declining sales and this might spill over to big names like APPL, QCOM, QRVO and also ad spend companies like APPS, TTD. If a new leg down starts in the market, chip manufacturers and mobile makers, ad spend and 5G network companies should be on watch. Also, the demand weakening comment should put a lot of pressure on NVDA and AMD as there will be doubts about them being able to fulfill their guidance with weakening demand. Especially AMD guided way higher last quarter. TSM put out news friday that majority of their big suppliers are scaling down their chip orders for rest of 2022. this consists of AMD NVDA AAPL cutting from 5-12% of their chips. please note that this post is not for monday trading, it is intended in general for the next 3-4 months.
NASDAQ:AMDShort
by savage_Trader
TSM - New Growth Cycle with 100% Potential?Is the world leading chip maker TSMC about to start a new growth cycle? Fundamental indicators: Revenue and Profits - exponential growth Profit margin - is at circa 37%, impressive figure considering the growth levels P/E - reasonable at 23x Liabilities - no problems there Risks: Recession - is not likely to have a big impact on TSMC as demand on its products keeps growing, but it may impact share prices when the market starts correcting China tensions - this is the highest risk to stability and future of this business which is difficult to assess but it certainly needs to be taken into account Technically: Following correction of 2020 there was an explosive growth in the share price of TSMC which indicates that it was wave 3 using Elliott Wave analysis And looking at the structure of the correction that has developed since the peak - the impulse like movement at the end suggests it is an Extended Flat At the lower time timeframe it is visible that the fifth wave of this impulse is quite choppy which indicates that ending diagonal is developing and soon there will be a reversal Given the depth of the forming wave 4 is 50% (using Fibonacci level) the fifth wave maybe not as explosive and may reach $150 to $190, which is impressive 100% jump from the current price level Alternative scenario - there is a possibility that wave 4 has not completed yet and it may drop further, however, at the moment it looks unlikely Do you think that TSMC is going to start another impressive bull cycle? Please share your thoughts in the comments and like this idea if you would like to see more stocks analysed using Elliott Waves. Thanks
NYSE:TSMLong
by vitalalyt
TSM - 5th leg down, 3 drive pattern SHORT CITYIt is in my humble opinion TSM is looking at a rather large drop looming ahead - symmetrically the pattern meets the harmonic qualifications as well as the elliot wave theory macro wave iterations. It is possible TSM will make a small shoulder before breaking the $100 price level - should it break this level and close below I believe it will be a swift fall to the $85 level, however if it wasn't "quick" the position I hold does allow for some time. Trade: 6/17 exp $85 PUTS @ 1.17 on 4/1 - currently trading at 1.62 at time of post
NYSE:TSMShort
by arich1282
2
$TSM Potential Reversal at Resistance$TSM broke down from a massive range / double top. After price peeked back into the range and above the 20-day, it reversed and closed below both after today's action. This deviation likely leaves a lot of bulls offsides (bull trap) which could fuel a selloff in the stock. There's no reason to believe that Apple is planning on moving away from TSM or that there will be a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, but price typically precedes news. The US is aggressively funding semiconductor fab domestically, which leaves TSM at a disadvantage. The stock may just be correcting to account for perceived increased geopolitical risk. Whatever the reason, the chart is showing weakness. With the Nasdaq overbought and selling off today, now may be a good time to take a short on TSM. I'm short at $107.10 with a stop loss at $109.76.
NYSE:TSMShort
by mroberts1204
<<Weinstein Stage Analysis>>Hey folks! Welcome to my post on Weinstein Stage Analysis on TSM. Background: Stage Analysis is a topic Stan Weinstein discussed in his book from 1988 “Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets“, where he details his classic four stage breakout method for identifying the best quality stocks to buy and sell in any market environment. Stage 1- The basing: Stage 1 occurs when a stock bottoms and forms a horizontal consolidation. New shareholders replace the old ones, in turn replacing fear with hope that will eventually turn into greed. Accumulation tends to speed up near the end of the pattern, triggering a set of higher-than-average volume spikes that show enthusiastic buying interest. On-balance volume (OBV) and other accumulation-distribution tools bottom out with price and turn higher, reflecting the newly bullish technical outlook. Watch closely when these indicators show greater upside than price action within the base, because this can signal an impending breakout that sets off Stage 2. Stage 2 - The Advance: Stage 2 occurs when the price has broken out of the consolidation in stage 1. It triggers a bullish uptrend where the price stays above the 30 Week MA. You will also notice that the stock will outperform the S&P 500 during this stage. Stage 3 - Consolidation: When the price of the stock crosses below the 30 Week MA, it is safe to assume that stage 3 is happening where the price is in a long consolidation. The price of the stock fails to reach higher highs and the stock tend to underperform the S&P 500. Stage 4 - Decline: Stage 4 typically occurs when the price of the stock breaks below a long term support during the stage 3 consolidation. It usually starts with high volume and ends in low volume. Short positions taken early in a downtrend carry higher risk and higher reward than late in the decline. Conclusion: Stan Weinstein's stage analysis is a very powerful tool for longer term trading (mainly on the weekly chart) and risk management. Another great example using the Weinstein stage analysis is PYPL where you can clearly see the stock following the stage analysis patterns.
NYSE:TSMEducation
by kenhuangsy2
1
Taiwan Semiconductors are losing favor. TSMImmediate targets 110, 104, 100. Invalidation 158. We are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in purple with invalidation in red. Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis. Trading is a true one man sport. Good luck out there and stay safe
NYSE:TSMShort
by Rykin_Capital
TSM: Retracement Before Moving LowerTSM - Short Term - We look to Sell at 115.52 (stop at 120.62) We look to sell rallies. Continued downward momentum from 142.00 resulted in the pair posting net daily losses yesterday. Previous support, now becomes resistance at 116.00. Further downside is expected although we prefer to set shorts at our bespoke resistance levels at 116.00, resulting in improved risk/reward. Our profit targets will be 104.00 and 101.40 Resistance: 115.00 / 120.00 / 130.00 Support: 105.00 / 100.00 / 95.00 Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis, like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis, as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features. Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
NYSE:TSMShort
by Saxo
All the relevant levels on TSMTSM is the most significant and more relevant chip manufacturer in the world. Probably you have one of these chips in the computer you are using right now or maybe in your car. With all that said, let's take a look at the most important levels on the current chart. * Yesterday (13/01/2021), TSM made a new all-time high (ATH) after 307 days of corrections inside a flag pattern and a decline of 24.33% * Flag patterns are continuation structures; this means that after the breakouts, we tend to observe new impulsive movements in the same direction as the previous one. What we will do now is explain possible bullish and bearish resolutions based on the levels we have: BULLISH SCENARIO: The price has 3 levels we can use to consider closing positions: First fibo extension, cloned channel, second fibo extension (useful for swing and position traders). Assuming the price replicates the previous impulse that started in April 2020 and finished in February 2021, we should expect a movement of 330 days towards 204 (where the 2nd fibo extension and the cloned channel converge). Remember that when you are looking for big and extended movements you need to be open to corrections during your trade or investment (for example, on key levels) BEARISH SCENARIO: The price is not able to surpass the resistance zone created by the previous ATH, and from here we observe a bearish movement towards the next target we have, "The ascending trendline) at around 119 Thanks for reading! feel free to add your ideas on the comments ;) Have a great weekend.
NYSE:TSM
by ThinkingAntsOk
3
TSM, Will make a new ATH !TSM 's trend is clearly up . It more than likely has completed waves 1,2,3,4 of a wave cycle and now is completing it's final leg. TSM' s Tripe three complex correction has ended on 6 Oct 2021 at 107.58 USD. Currently it has completed wave 1 and 2 of last mentioned final leg up and is in wave 3 the final wave . Our targets are : 1. 149 to 151 2. 161 to 163 3. 174 to 176 I give more chance to 161-163 for now however we have upcoming Earning Report which predicted by analyst to be a strong one and may push the price much much higher! Normally I expect a correction after hitting our target, retrace back to around 110 and another move up to new ATH. Our buy point is taking out 135.5 high. Good luck everyone!
NYSE:TSMLong
by SaeedSajedi
3
TSM: Buying DipsTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company - Short Term - We look to Buy at 117.00 (stop at 114.00) We look to buy dips. Trend line support is located at 116.00. The trend of higher lows is located at 114.00. The bias is still for higher levels and we look for any dips to be limited. Previous resistance located at 127.00. This move is expected to continue and we look to set longs at good risk/reward levels. Our profit targets will be 126.00 and 134.00 Resistance: 125.00 / 127.00 / 130.00 Support: 116.00 / 114.00 / 110.00 Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis, like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis, as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features. Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
NYSE:TSMLong
by Saxo
1