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ridethepig | USDJPY ST Market Flows 2020.06.12Eyes on UMich today. Sentiment remains awful out there despite how talking heads are selling re-openings to the masses. A very dovish Fed has forced Global Equities to play ball and marked a meaningful top across risk markets. VIX exploding higher after testing 🔑 25.0x support and implying the next move coming is a lot more sinister.  This ST swing does not change the long-term multi-year chart in USDJPY . Let's map a quick cheatsheet for those trading the flows today in USDJPY . Here actively looking to start adding shorts using strong resistance (108.5x) <=> soft resistance (107.5x) <=> soft support (106.6x) <=> strong support (106.0x) for reference. Thanks as usual for keeping the likes, charts, questions and comments coming. Good luck all those trading the weekly closing range.
Short
by ridethepig
3
GBPNZD on a clear downtrendG'day everyone! All the explanations for this trade are in the chart. In a nutshell, follow the arrow but be careful because we are tapping into an area of support. If the price shoots up and closes above the most recent highs we will close the trade for the time being and look for better opportunities. If you have any questions please leave them in comments. Did you like the idea?? Give us a thumbs up!! Do you have a different view and analysis? Let us know in the comments. I love to be proven wrong. It is the only way to become better. Remember that trading is only part of your life. Do not spend all day in front of the screen!! Surf, Trade, Live!!
Short
by MicKi
ridethepig | CHF Market Commentary 2020.06.05Clearly all the action has been in EURCHF after the enormous bids that came through into euro yesterday. Large macro players are liking what they hear from ECB and the Commission which is setting the stage for the EURCHF short-covering. The key divergence can be seen in USDCHF breaking down, this isn't a CHF driven move but rather from the USD weakness. I am interested to chase this lower as risk sentiment begins to turn down again and CHF begins to find that safe-haven demand. Currently the outlook for CHF is firmly neutral, this can change as early as today's NFP. How it behaves below the 0.950x handle will be thoroughly examined, the totally rigid cast around the risk rally is still part of a "KNEE JERK REACTION" phase from the initial crash. This means that markets will begin to start trading the facts around a recession and slow recovery. If any any doubts of the recession consider the following diagrams: For a) see 2's 5's curve screaming recession For b) , consider the unemployment levels In this simplest of all positions, every other time this happened it ended badly for the economy. Assuming USD does not devalue materially into 2020 its repo will grow and continue expanding the balance sheet , one way or another eventually this is going to look like Fed has been financing the WhiteHouse and then the game is up. CHF appears in the FX desks to be starting to finally bow down to the boss, that is risk. The blockader that is employment, is not flexible here and able to go on long journeys in all directions. The elasticity; should be kept in mind and used to analyse risk flows as such.
Short
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | DXY Long-Term Macro MapThe attentive readers have been asking can USD still devalue in this race to the bottom! The simple answer is that this is a good ploy in in such a restricted monetary environment although this move would be considered a bad one nowadays from a strictly fundamental perspective: the weakness of the dollar is necessary in order for equities to continue the advance. US were faced with a 'choose your side' between a weaker stock market or a softer currency; and opted for the weaker green. 📍 On the positioning side... The fate of the game now depends on the retrace leg in macro charts. If the dollar is driven off the cliff, then as G10 & EM FX are already committed to the short-circuit the flows will be very simple to track. This is a nice illustration of the Quarterly theme "aggressive dollar devaluation". The move in question is transparent and therefore a good illustration of the theme and how to officially mark an outpost on the 'B' wave. So the correct play is to complete the ABC sequence before adopting a wait-and-see approach. In order to get in as quickly as possible and at any price, we must begin to dig into the inner swings on lower time frames. Today we 'know' that the satisfactory requirements have been met at 102.5x, the plan from last year: The longer term chart shows clearly the move(s) we are tracking and expecting. " => The move towards 102 is still corrective and within the bigger picture this is a large B wave of an ABC since the cycle highs in Jan 2017. " ✅ " => In theory we can expect another 5 wave decent to match the logic of the previous 5 wave move, ideally this will kick start the flow from 102-103 range highs. " ✅ The manoeuvre from sellers becomes crystal clear, a devaluation cycle, they wish to seize the 75 and 50 targets in the multi-year correction before raising the stakes later in the decade once supply shortages enter into the picture. But the move cannot be said to have positive value on volatility, since expansions and contractions in vol have a case to play : 📍 On the technical side... Here I had been expecting the sell-off (at last!) from the 102.5x highs and had prepared a nice problem for my opponent, namely the EURUSD explosive move to the topside and now threatening the ultimate break of 1.15xx. It is relatively easy for someone who knows about the CB intervention on such a line and how it must be put under pressure. The 87.4x in Dollar is a minimum target for our 'C' leg that we are tracking, anything beyond this would imply that the impulsive leg towards 75 and 50 is underway. In what follows from the comments, I will give me feelings and views to the next moves, so we can follow what is happening. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!
TVC:DXYShort
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | JPY Long-Term Macro Map The elements of Macro strategy 📍 On the JPY side... It is well known the vulnerability of Japanese corporates in this environment, they are particularly exposed because of the demographics and sector exposures. Restaurants, bars, entertainment etc all are looking very feeble, and with credibility seems to be fading on the monetary and fiscal side too since the latest rounds of stimulus there is room for a massive leg lower in JPY. For those following the conversations on Japanese fiscal bazooka, the sizes are insane... Abe just put through another 6% of GDP and raised the overdraft to +/- 15% of GDP. A comatose recovery is underway, even if the fiscal execution is flawless this will take years to recovery. 📍 On the USD side... Hedging will become a lot lot cheaper with Fed zero rates meaning that the demand for USD will increase as it remains a more attractive hedging instrument than JPY. So we have the following picture: the king stuck in retreat via Covid forcing the front end of the yield curve to stay anchored to rates, while the belly and long end are starting to dislocate and tick higher. This is screaming of longer lasting pain to come . Local politics will provide some ebb and flow although Trump looks a done deal. The only caveat is if Hillary throws her hat in the ring, low odds as per today but of course this will be one to keep an eye on and Biden dependent. 📍 For the technical flows... We are tracking an ABC sequence with the 'C' leg in play after this weekly close. The 151 remains the main target in the sequence with a time horizon of Q4 21 / Q1 22. The monthly chart is a little out of scope for retail trading, instead it will serve as a compass to help our Weekly, Daily and H4 maps. A round of Macro Maps will be uploaded over the weekend. As usual jump in with charts, views, questions or etc and thanks for keeping the support rolling with likes, comments and etc!
Long
by ridethepig
10
ridethepig | DXY Market Commentary 2020.06.05A quick update to the DXY chart which is essentially intended to cast some light over G10 FX as we prepare for NFP. In order to understand the dangers of pursuing a weaker dollar too energetically, we shall in what follows begin to point out the inner wave flows in which short-term moves become indicated. The process of short-term swing trading is automatic for macro players, having a clear understanding of the direction and which side occupies control ensures us of control over individual strategically important swings and the apparently desirable opportunities where retail begin to go overboard will become clear places for us to do profit taking and trap them in the opposite directions. Lets review a sketch of the Middle and Long game with Dollar: Clearly sellers wish to occupy the flow, in order to deliver an impulsive wave to the +/- 75 targets; but if they try moving too far too soon they will exhaust and allow buyers to prevent the attack. So, sellers will play the macro swing in incremental waves ... 1 ... 2... 3... 4... 5... The correct sequence is to play both the impulse and retrace exchange, and, in the current case, we are reaching the main impulse target so its time to leave late sellers no room to protect with NFP because they have to cover. For the Technical NFP flows: Steel Support 93.8x <=> Strong Support 95.8x <=> Soft Support 96.7x (we are currently here) <=> S/R FLIP <=> Soft Resistance 97.83x <=> Strong Resistance 98.8x <=> Steel Resistance 99.9x When major forces on both sides come under attack, it comes down to a sort of exchange / expansion in vol which we shall call: "Sellers trying to sell their lives for the highest price possible". Anyone with the slightest TA knowledge can tell sellers are gunning for the lows, they want to condemn bulls to death, it appears understandable given the domestic US issues on social and political unrest to want to sell your life for as much as possible. Imagine for a moment you are soldier, down to your last clip and you are surrounded... You would need to take as many enemies out as possible so you will pick your moments. Smart sellers will defend in the most important areas! Coverage resuming as usual here after @ridethepig returns back to London...Thanks as usual for keeping support coming with the likes, comments, charts, questions and etc!
TVC:DXYLong
by ridethepig
3
Twitter Slammed into Support; Buy the Dip? 🐦 | TWITTER ($TWTR)🦅 Twitter fact-check team got the company in some hot political water, and that controversy caused a drag on the price. However, Twitter is now coming up to a nice juicy support level where we just might get an excellent long opportunity. Resource: www.npr.org ✨ Drop a comment asking for an update, we do NEW setups every day! ✨ Like, Comment & Follow to help the community grow 🎉🎉 --- 1. Fractal Trend is showing an uptrend (Aqua colored bars) on the 1-hour timeframe. This is consistent with the recent steady uptrend seen on Twitter's chart. 2. With this strategy, we are looking for long setups in an uptrend and as such want to enter long on retests of bullish order blocks plotted by Orderblock Mapping (Aqua colored lines) and/or bullish S/R levels plotted by Directional Bias (Aqua colored lines). 3. The goal here is to take a long position at the S1 bullish orderblock and S/R flip cluster with a target of the R2 bearish orderblock. 4. Our stop loss is placed well below the S1 cluster below the gap to help avoid a liquidity hunt. 5. Other notable levels the chart include R1 and R3 which may both see reactions as price interacts with them, and generally notable as well is the pennant formed from the upper and lower trend lines. A break above the uptrend trend line and R3 would be a nice victory for the bulls, while the bulls also want to see the lower trend line hold. Let's get this bread Twitter heads!
NYSE:TWTR
by AlphaBotSystem
EURJPY outlookWe have 3rd touch on downtrend line, now it is confirmed. Also a 61.8% level here. A break to the upside opens next level, though 120 round level is close. Ideally this trade is for next week as today Trump could reverse to risk off during his speech. He is supposed to address China's new law. Depending on the news we could start looking for reversals over the weekend. So I will update analysis before Monday. Please support the idea and share your thoughts on EURJPY! Good Luck and Stay Healthy!
by Antonio_trader
4
ridethepig | A closer look at US EquitiesA timely update to the US Equities chart after a month of consolidation/chop. The energy building up here is immense, before you tackle what follows, you should quickly check that you are well versed in the notions concerning the retrace leg, the ABC sequence and passed crashes. If not you should refresh your ideas on these, because both of the following legs are necessary for full understanding for the next swing. The question we are tracking is as follows: After the 61.8% pullback from the sell-off, assuming equities do not advance beyond 3177, sellers have the possibility of opening a final leg lower opening the capitulation in the global economy. By playing the 5th wave lower, sellers release tension in the congested areas as naive short-term specs continue buying for no apparent reason. So why do these levels matter? Well, the 2892 is the measured target in the ABC sequence from the March 23rd lows, could buyers break back up as re-openings unfold? Not really possible as another test of the lows would be much healthier from a bulls perspective. It gives more time to load and re-position, even if in some modified form. The next cycle down in the economy looks set to last into 2021, in other words all those expecting a V shaped bounce and running from the lows as quickly as you can are dividing the flows into two halves. For the sake of convenience we shall call this a "dead-cat-bounce". Remember we are tracking the two important fundamental charts on the macro side: "It's Time" "Alpha Protocol: Seeking Immediate Extraction" Further pockets of shutdowns and social distancing measures will weigh heavy on consumer confidence, it looks unavoidable for the Northern Hemisphere Winter (December 2020) while in the background cooking there is a powerful urge to move away from Oil that seems to be unfolding. After the inconsiderable disadvantage US producers were put under via Russia, China and S.A, the battlefield has emerged: But moreover, thanks to protectionism China and US are moving towards escalation. Foreign policy will provide the narrative for this final leg lower, Trump will attempt to establish lines of communications later in the Quarter with Xi although the damage has already been done. Follow the flows... capture the final leg lower in global equities, while the rest panic and begin to think its doom and gloom forever we can obtain the lows with cheap bids to exert pressure on soft buyers and later sellers (we can update the charts as we get down there later in June). As usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts, questions and etc!
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by ridethepig
16
CAD POLOZ SPEECH TODAY MAY 25TH - NZDCAD POSSIBLE BULLISH MOVEFX:NZDCAD AS WE ENTER THE LAST WEEK OF THE MONTH WE'VE SEEN BULLISH ACTION ACROSS NZD AND AUD BASED PAIRS POSSIBLE CONTINUATION WHILE WE ALSO COULD SEE FUTHER DOWNSIDE PRESSURE IN OIL OR CAD ITSELF DUE TO THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY AND PRINTING OF $$$$. HOLD ONTO YOUR HORSES, IT'S ONLY MONDAY TRADERS! CHEERS JOIN US IN THE TELEGRAM ANALYSIS GROUP WHILE ITS FREE! *RECEIVE UPDATES ON MAJOR GLOBAL EVENTS *DAILY FX CHART ANALYSIS* *EDUCATION* *ACCESS TO TRADE CAPITAL* t.me #POLOZ #CAD #FOREX #MAY24 #VICTORIADAY #FOREX
Long
by EvaultFinancialGroup
1