Trendtrading
XCH /USDT (Chia) Secondary trend. Channel.Logarithm. Timeframe 3 days Secondary trend. Zone of the horizontal channel.
Zone of the horizontal channel (accumulation of almost 1 year).
At the moment of publication the price has moved in the parallel horizontal channel of accumulation for 350 days (11.6 months) with the step of 108.4%. This is a good sign. Now the price is in the compression zone (the average price of this accumulation).
This is what this horizontal channel zone looks like on the line chart.
Stop Loss Zone. Rationality of the strategy .
I would like to emphasize that the stop loss under the support of this accumulation has not been knocked out (reset) at this point. This is not a mandatory action, but it is common. Just keep it in mind and consider it a conditional temporary risk, so to speak. To minimize this contingent risk, use a stop loss or, more rationally, work at an average buy/sell price. Let me remind you again that the price is now clamped with orders on the exchange (it has been there conventionally for 6 weeks) and this is the average price of this parallel channel.
I deliberately showed the percentage values of the main support/resistance zones in case of the price compression (6 weeks in a very narrow range) on the chart for orientation and understanding of the logic of work.
Main Trend 3 day time frame.
XCH /USDT (Chia) Main Trend. Horizontal channel 11.6M
Strong Buy Marico cmp 522 Target 550++ in 5-10 trade sessionsMarico Limited is one of India's leading consumer goods companies operating in global beauty and wellness categories. It is present in over 25 countries across emerging markets of Asia and Africa. It nurtures leading brands across categories of hair care, skin care, edible oils, healthy foods, male grooming and fabric care.
Below are all the product categories that the company caters to in the domestic market and the brands of the company :
1. Coconut Oil - Parachute, Nihar Naturals.
2. Super-premium Refined edible oils - Saffola.
3. Value added hair oils - Parachute advansed, Nihar naturals, Hair & Care.
4. Healthy foods - Saffola oats, Coco Soul. Coconut oil, Saffola FITTIFY Gourmet Range.
5. Premium Hair Nourishment - Livon Serums, Hair & Care.
6. Male Grooming & Styling - Set Wet, Beardo, Parachute.
7. Skin Care - Kaya Youth, Parachute advansed.
8. Hygiene - Mediker, Veggie Clean
Market Share
Market share of company’s leading brands as of Q1FY22 were as follows:
Coconut Oils, MS: 62%, Rank: 1 st
Parachute Rigids, MS: 52%, Rank: 1 st
Saffola – Super Premium ROCP, MS:, Rank: 82% 1 st
Saffola Oats, MS: 39%, Rank: 2 nd
Saffola Masala Oats - Flavored Oats, MS: 94%, Rank: 1 st
Value Added Hair Oils, MS: 37%, Rank: 1st
Post wash Leave-on Serums, MS: 63%, Rank: 1st
Hair Gels/Waxes/Creams, MS: 58%, Rank: 1st
Revenue Breakup FY22
In FY22, ~77% of the total consolidated revenues were generated from domestic business. In the domestic market, coconut oils accounted for 40% of the total revenues followed by refined oils 25%, value added hair oils 21%, Personal care products (male grooming, skin care) ~5%.
Distribution Network
The company has a pan-India distribution network with a reach of 5.6 million outlets out of a total of ~12 million outlets in India. In FY22, Modern Trade and e-commerce contributed to 14% and 9% of the domestic business respectively.
International Business
In FY22, ~23% of the total consolidated revenues were generated from international business. Top export countries are Bangladesh (51% % of export revenues), followed by South East Asia (23%) , Middle East (13 %), and South Africa (7%). The international business portfolio includes brands such as Parachute, HairCode, Mediker SafeLife, Fiancee, caivil, Hercules, Black Chic, Code 10, Ingwe, X-Men, Sedure, Thuan Phat and Isoplus.
Capex
In FY22, co. incurred 132 Crore Capital expenditure for capacity expansion and maintenance of existing manufacturing facilities.
Marico is undertaking strategic investments to accelerate its digital transformation journey through building scalable digital-first brands, either organically or inorganically.
Market Cap ₹ 67,791 Cr
Stock P/E 46.3
ROCE 41.9 %
Dividend Yield 0.86 %
Currently PE is 46 as compared to Median PE of 50 and with such high ROCE and more than 3/4% of dividend yield, this stock is looking for a strong momentum looking at the way Marico is strategically increasing its business. Technically, it seems that price structure has changed on hourly chart and it seems to be bottom out as it has done time and price wise correction. At current market price(CMP) of 522, this is best rate to enter for quick target of 550 and 580 in a 5-10 trading session.
Navigating Gold DynamicsDive deep into the intricate world of gold trading with our comprehensive analysis and forecast. Our expert examination not only uncovers the latest trends in the gold market but also provides valuable insights into the factors shaping its price dynamics. From technical indicators to fundamental analysis, we dissect every aspect influencing gold prices. Stay informed and empowered to make strategic decisions with our actionable recommendations for capitalizing on the ever-evolving gold landscape.
USD/JPY & GBP/USD UpdateUSD/JPY
The secondary trend on the USD/JPY has printed a trend-changing pattern after breaking above the pullback structure.
This move gives us a piece of crucial information, that we can buy at the low after the current wave structure is complete.
Currently, our high probability trade is selling now to buy later.
GBP/USD
The Cable is bearish because we have seen three trend-changing patterns that constitute a downtrend in the GBPUSD.
Overall the major trend is now resuming to the downside and we want to sell every rally that failed to make a Higher high.
Future AUDUSD selloff very possible Fundamentals : The RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) kept interest rates at a 12-year high of 4.35%. The COT (Commitment of Traders) Non-Commercial Report for AUDUSD showed a larger number of participants holding shorts over longs but we’ve had about 15k shorts close their positions since the last COT report so there is that going against the bearish sentiment. Net position overall is still negative but it had a positive change of 13k or 13.51% which also goes against the bearish sentiment. % OI for longs is 18.40% while the % OI for shorts is 55.5%, Open Interest being 224.5k which is -14k lower then last weeks reports
Technicals : We get the 3-EMA crossing-over the 10-EMA to the downside while price action is possibly staying underneath both EMAs. Stochastic is facing down while crossing the 50% mark and the Momentum is negative.
Stop loss above the top trend line, Targeting prominent recent Lows.
GOLD SELL - 15 Min EntriesGold has broken out of 2 bullish trend lines and I am looking for a retest of the resistance level before entering a sell position.
Price may sweep the highs to take out the liquidity above resistance before moving bearish.
I will be looking for the retest then waiting for a closure below $2321.30 for extra confirmation.
Trends in upward movement facing some exhaustionTrends are mostly in an upward movement stage, looking to remove the violation left of the 12hr / Daily lower high trend indicators.
Trends into today are;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ES Contract)
30m - 5086 Uptrend (5/2/2024) Higher High
1Hr - 5117 Uptrend (5/1/2024) Higher High
2Hr - 5117 Uptrend (5/1/2024) Lower High
3Hr - 5157 Uptrend (5/3/2024) Higher High
4Hr - 5148 Uptrend (5/3/2024) Higher High
6Hr - 5148 Uptrend (5/3/2024) Higher High
12Hr - 5204 Downtrend (4/4/2024) Higher Low
Daily - 5166 Downtrend (4/12/2023) Higher Low
Weekly - 4769 Uptrend (12/11/2023) Higher High
Monthly - 5304 Uptrend (03/31/2024) Higher High
As explained in the video, everything is in a higher high between 30m-6hr except the 2hr, which was part of the Powell Pump reversal.
As I explained my trades over last week were a 70 point gain into the Powell Pump, a 70 point reversal after the Powell Pump, and a Long position from 5080 which I cashed out today as we pushed above the Daily downtrend resistance of 5170 for just over $4000. Additionally those Soybean Meal contracts I acquired around 335 were both cashed at around 372 for about $3700 each (I had 2). I don't say this to brag, but moreso to explain why I am not hungry for another trade, as I'm already financially set for the month of May at just under $20,000. This will be why I may seem overly picky about my trades and what may be a good position I may wait if it doesn't look like a borderline perfect trade.
Economic Calendar is very light this week, just jobs data on Thursday.
Earnings calendar is mostly important to watch tomorrow, especially around Disney from my perspective.
Geopolitical tensions could hit a new tension point as Israeli troops move into Rafah.
Overall, my general sentiment on the short term, and probably most of this week, is sideways at the moment.
Safe trading, and remember your risk management.
CHART PATTERN XAUUSD ANALYSIS (read caption)Gold is trading at 2296, with a notable resistance level observed at 2300. Should gold breach this resistance, traders may consider pursuing the following targets: 2310 to 2318.
Alternatively, should a sell pattern manifest, indicating a potential downturn, traders may anticipate the following support levels: The initial support rests at 2275, followed by potential targets at 2265 to 2255.
This analysis suggests potential trading opportunities based on current market dynamics and key price levels. Traders are advised to monitor these levels closely and adjust their strategies accordingly.
PacMan Trend Symbol; Guidance into PCE and Next WeekThe video explains it all a lot better, but basically, we are sitting with higher highs and lower lows on the trend timeframes that brought us here (30m-4hr), otherwise known as the Pac-Man symbol.
Trends into today are;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ES Contract)
30m - 5083 Uptrend (4/25/2024) Higher High
1Hr - 5083 Uptrend (4/25/2024) Higher High
2Hr - 5131 Uptrend (4/25/2024) Higher High
3Hr - 5123 Uptrend (4/25/2024) Higher High
4Hr - 5131 Uptrend (4/25/2024) Higher High
6Hr - 5250 Downtrend (4/2/2024) Higher Low
12Hr - 5204 Downtrend (4/4/2024) Higher Low
Daily - 5166 Downtrend (4/12/2023) Higher Low
Weekly - 4769 Uptrend (12/11/2023) Higher High
Monthly - 5304 Uptrend (03/31/2024) Higher High
If we move directly higher from here, the 6hr is going to be a lower high, but it will be the lone trend calling for a lower movement, as when the 12hr and Daily strike, we will have a higher high.
I did not account for us to drop so harshly from GDP data yesterday, and certainly didn't expect that drop to fizzle out and us to push higher over after this occurred. This is why I almost never short into Earnings season.
Economic Calendar;
PCE Data is today. I foresee it pushing us lower, but not with enough confidence to blindly trade short into it.
Major next issue is the Fed Meeting on Wednesday of next week.
Overall, likely just missed opportunity from not going short at the close of Wednesday and catching most of the move back down yesterday, although I likely would have let at least half the profit reverse before I jumped out anyways.
I expect I'm going to miss out on a drop today, but without trend confirmation I just don't feel strongly enough about shorting into this PCE data at this point.
I made some good trades earlier, so I'm fine with it, and I still have Gold Long from 2305 and my Soy contracts are FINALLY starting to generate some revenue at around $1500 each.
Safe trading, and remember your risk management.
USDJPY Analysis: Caution on Strong Bullish RallyUSDJPY is on a strong bullish rally, mainly due to the weakening of the Japanese yen. If you decide to chase the bull, beware of getting caught in the act.
That's because the Japanese Yen has reached the BOJ intervention zone. I think the real worry comes in when the market strikes the 161.93 to 163.26 range, and the intervention would be imminent.
Without any intervention for the next 1 to 2 weeks, I will call the Bluff on BOJ.
Stay away from this pair if you are not a Forex Trading veteran.
GBPUSD Analysis: Trend Trading Opportunity- Trade Strategy: Trend Trading - Sideway Bounce Setup
- Key Levels: Key Support at 1.2461, Target at 1.2502
- Profit Potential: 41 pips (410 USD/lot)
Analysis:
- Trade Strategy: Trend Trading - Sideway Bounce Setup
- Key Levels: Key Support at 1.2461, Target at 1.2502
- Profit Potential: 41 pips (410 USD/lot)
Trade Plan:
- Long Opportunity: Consider going long at 1.2461 for a trend trading opportunity
- Take Profit: Set initial target at 1.2502 for a profit potential of 41 pips
- Risk Management: Implement effective risk management techniques to manage potential losses
Insights:
GBPUSD presents a trend trading opportunity with a Sideway Bounce setup, offering a buying opportunity at the Key Support level of 1.2461. Traders can aim for an initial target at 1.2502, providing a profit potential of 41 pips. It's essential to closely monitor price action and adhere to risk management principles for successful trading outcomes. Share your insights and trade plan below!
📈 Capitalize on the trend trading opportunity presented by GBPUSD, leveraging the Sideway Bounce setup for potential profits within the current market conditions!
Trends in conflict; Earnings Likely to cause a short reboundSo again, I cashed out my trade just above 5000 as we fell last night following the Israel drone strike against Iran. Most of that dip appears to have resolved itself, at least for the moment, but those geopolitical issues will likely be crucial to the potential of a market fall in the coming days.
I go into it in the video, but major Earnings are next week, and I expect the week to be typical which means we will rebound during the Earnings season, especially next week with major powerhouses reporting (Microsoft, Google, Tesla). If NVidia was reporting I'd suggest we could rise back up towards 5300, but they are not until the end of May.
Trends into today are;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ES Contract)
30m - 5040 Downtrend (4/18/2024) Lower High
1Hr - 5220 Downtrend (4/12/2024) Lower Low
2Hr - 5203 Downtrend (4/12/2024) Lower Low
3Hr - 5197 Downtrend (4/4/2024) Lower Low
4Hr - 5197 Downtrend (4/4/2024) Lower Low
6Hr - 5250 Downtrend (4/2/2024) Higher Low
12Hr - 5204 Downtrend (4/4/2024) Higher Low
Daily - 5166 Downtrend (4/12/2023) Higher Low
Weekly - 4769 Uptrend (12/11/2023) Higher High
Monthly - 5304 Uptrend (03/31/2024) Higher High
This shows lots of downward pressure, although several of the trends are a bit oversold as the 30m has managed to run away with the market.
Economic Calendar;
Nothing important today or the start of next week. GDP is next Thursday though and CPE is Friday.
If I was to express some sentiment it would be
Shorter Term - Neutral/Bearish
Short Term - Neutral
Medium Term - Neutral/Bullish
Long Term - Neutral
Longer Term - Bullish
... if the above makes any sense!
Oh, and yes, I still have those Soy contracts. They are worth a whopping $1200 after all this time. I may trade them in for some 6E contracts if I see that look like it could run back up to 1.10 any time soon.
Safe trading, and remember your risk management!
Safe trading, and remember your risk management!
CARVANA $CVNA - Feb. 15th, 2024CARVANA NYSE:CVNA - Feb. 15th, 2024
BUY/LONG ZONE (GREEN): $48.00 - $60.00
DO NOT TRADE/DNT ZONE (WHITE): $40.00 - $48.00
SELL/SHORT ZONE (RED): $25.25 - $40.00
By request. My main focus would be on the range between $40.00 - $48.00, this area has determined the trend five times, which are seen each time price touches and breaks or touches and rejects. Currently I'm looking at a bull trend that was set after a breakout of the range in the $40-$48 zone. Any data before June 2023 I was not considering. If I had to look for an upside target, assuming the trend stays bullish long term once price reaches $60, the next logical point would be $103. Due to the lack of data and because price is trading away from the start of my bullish zone, I personally would not look to enter until there is a reaction to the $60 area or a pullback to the $48/$49 zone.
GBP/USD Follow upA quick Follow-up on the GBP/USD Long Trade.
We have reversed the position at 1.2448 a test of the structure 2.
Technically, the trend is still down and a failure to trade above the structure 2 makes the GBP/USD still bearish.
The last Bullish wave 4 to 5 has given us a short setup using the Fibonacci. This is a high-probability setup for a strong reversal (short) or a downtrend continuation setup.
Initial Target 1.2347, If the price breaks below 1.2330, the downtrend will continue.
Stop Loss: 1.2473
XAUUSD Still Buy TrendDiscover an enticing Buying opportunity in GOLD as it undergoes a critical retest of a key resistance area. With market analysis, technical indicators, and price action as your allies, evaluate the potential upside move. Stay vigilant and informed to capitalize on this precious metal's market dynamics.
USDJPY Analysis: Bullish Bias Despite Market Volatility- Market Sentiment: Bullish Bias
- Weekly Chart Analysis: Violation of Recent Resistance Indicates Strength
- Trade Plan: Buying Opportunities Favored over Shorting
Analysis:
- Market Sentiment: Maintains Bullish Bias on US Dollar, despite market volatility
- Weekly Chart Analysis: Notable violation of recent resistance level on the USDJPY Weekly chart
- Implications: Market speculation regarding potential BOJ intervention in FX Market
- Trade Plan: Prefers buying opportunities over shorting due to pair's independent behavior
Trade Plan:
- Buying Opportunities: Look for buying opportunities at support levels (e.g., 154.27, 154.12, 153.89)
- Support and Resistance Trading: Shorting opportunity at 154.70 on the 1-hourly chart, although not actively pursued
Insights:
Maintaining a bullish bias on USDJPY despite market volatility, with a focus on buying opportunities over shorting. Preference for buying entries at support levels, while remaining cautious of resistance levels for potential shorting opportunities. Exercise caution and adaptability in response to the pair's independent behavior.
📈📉 Remain vigilant and adaptable in navigating the USDJPY market, prioritizing risk management and flexibility in trade execution!
Buy Low, Sell High: Meta and Nvidia's Opportunity NowBuying NASDAQ:META and NASDAQ:NVDA : Balancing Risk and Reward
Despite the recent market downturn, the long uptrend and strength of Meta and Nvidia remain intact. While short-term market fluctuations may present challenges, the long-term growth potential of Meta and Nvidia outweighs the current market volatility.
Risk-Reward Profile:
While investing in any stock carries inherent risks, the risk-reward profile for Meta and Nvidia appears favorable at current levels. Despite short-term losses, utilizing volatility to compute a close stop-loss level can effectively manage risk in this negative environment while leaving ample room for potential gains. This strategy, frequently employed by seasoned traders, maximizes opportunities in turbulent markets.
Stop level: 480
Weekend Factor:
However, it is important to keep in mind the negative exposure to war-related news associated with any long trade carried before the weekend. There's no guarantee that Monday's open will align with or exceed the stop level, potentially resulting in larger losses than anticipated. Therefore, investors should carefully assess their risk tolerance and adjust their positions accordingly.
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The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Investing in stocks carries risks, and individuals should conduct their own research or consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions