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Bitcoin - Weight of Evidence Analysis.Okay guys here's my weekly update for BTCUSD. This week has been a relatively boring one again, no substantial movements and we seem to be stuck in a sideways channel. Keeping the chart as simple as possible, I've removed the trend line as it's no longer confirmed and using my 45EMA and Support/Resistance lines. Here is the evidence we have to work with to assess any possible outcomes. - The price action is still above the 45EMA on the daily so I'm still bullish for the long term. = Bullish - A confirmed sideways channel has formed with low profit available to swing trade. = Neutral - Support of this channel is around $7460. - Resistance of this channel is around $8350. - Volume is dropping off, although higher volume found on green candles. = Slightly Bullish - MACD showing a possible Golden Cross forming. = Slightly Bullish - Daily RSI Sitting relatively healthy around 50 giving. = Neutral - Weekly RSI just under the oversold value. = Bullish - Weekly candle patterns look healthy for bullish continuation. = Bullish If we gather the evidence and analyse it, we see the there is a slightly bullish overall result. The smart trader wouldn't enter now as there is not solid bullish signals or breakouts. Here is an idea to help you put the odd's further in your favor during these channel formations. - Set a Stop-Limit Entry for a long position around 8500 if you're an aggressive day trader or 8900 if you're a less aggressive investor. - Set a Stop-Limit Entry for a short position around 7400 if you're an aggressive day trader or 7200 if you're a less aggressive investor. Once one of the positions has executed just close the other and set a stop that suits your trading plan/system. To finalise and sum up, the market is very close to neutral with a slight bullish possibility. Never try to predict the tape, just use the information it supplies to try build the best analysis possible while securing your margin. This Idea is in no way financial advise and it should never be used as such. All this information should be used for educational purposes only. Seek a qualified financial professional for advice relative to your financial situation.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by IRApTOIR
I have to post this apparently...Not that it will make a difference with 90% people... At least it gives me some practice. Always good. No point for me writting a large textwall explaining everything simply, those that need this do not read it or understand it anyway. I am not a trend expert. I am not a trend trader. I find it simpler to find reversal points at support at the end of corrections and typically miss the meat of the moves. Some people do this, most (successful) follow the trend, whatever works for you is good. What you have ease doing. But I think I am qualified enough to explain what a trend is. Plus I study them all the time to try and figure out where the pullback ends. Let me make a few drawings a 5 years old can understand: Now, let me take this 1 step up, making it a little harder, but still with a simple drawing even the people raging at me can understand. Now, I will make it slightly harder once again. Let's take it one step further. If anyone is having difficulties, start back at point 1. Now, to the next lesson, lets combine the 2: Putting it all together: There are exceptions: Some practical exercises: Are you biased? Or are you not? Trends are easy, corrections are hard. Only 1 type of trend. 21 types of corrections. Can look like this: Or like this: Or like this: Not like this, it cannot look like this: Or like this:
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by MrRenev
106
Bitcoin Trend ContinuationOn the Daily chart, this is the potential long setup I mentioned in my Telegram group yesterday. If $8,200 is broken which is not yet confirmed, but looks likely, then this long trade may become active. The cryptocurrency market has been very volatile over the months of April and May so this is why I am staying on the Daily chart as opposed to the H4 as well as only searching for trend continuation opportunities and not counter-trends. Entry for this trade is around the $7450 level with targets up at the $9,675 level at the -0.27% Fibonacci and Stop Loss around $6,800 at the 110% Fib extension. This gives me a nice 3.39/1 Risk Reward which meets my preferred target of a minimum 3/1. Risk of account is 2% as usual. Of course, this buy limit may not be fulfilled and then further setups will be analysed in that case.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by TomFarren
1
The 3 types of trendSummary Introduction Type 1 Type 2 Type 3 Conclusion Introduction Trends are not created equal, there are 3 types of trends, I am not a trend trader that much but I can identify trends and tell the difference. This is what I know about myself: 1- Strong trends Examples: Ways to define these strong trends - Eyesight - With a momentum indicator (not a fan) - With a trendline - With moving averages As you can see, there are not many pullbacks with this type of trend - once it pullsback it is a reversal often, so how best to participate in this? 2- Medium trends Not going as much in detail here, don't care so much. Plus you get the idea anyway. Medium trends are not as awesome, they get quite choppy. Just not as good to participate in, in my opinion. Examples: Same ways to define it, but trendlines have smaller angles, RSI not as high, and use EMA 50 rather than 20. Ideas to trade, similar with 1 big exception: 3- Weak trends Ooooh what's that smell? I could trade it like a consolidation with a bear bias (only go short) in a downtrend? NO! In this EURUSD example you can see tops go lower, then higher, then lower. It is not clear, super choppy. The price is generally going down, but there are no good entries. Unless you do not mind a risk reward of 1 while trading a daily chart... The thing that makes holding weeks > get in and out is you can get high risk rewards, cumulate uncorrelated positions (which reduces overall risk), hence increase your profit without having more risk.. (Bonus) The "I am going to zero" trend Summing up: About the 3/5 group of strategies I have posted: 1/5 (The 4 kinds of bottoms) = Supply & Demand 2/5 (Buying pullbacks style) = Trend following / Troll strategies 3/5 (Trend continuation breaks) = (Strong) Trend following
Education
by MrRenev
MOONSHOT - attacking the most violent stock on earth!Qualcomm is probably the most violent stock on the planet. The resent trip to the moon was a result of the signing of a truce with Apple (APPL). Apple - the giant - had sued Qualcomm for $30 billion in an overcharging dispute. Qualcomm had fired back with a paltry $7 Billion counter-suit for lost payments. They settled their dispute and investors went into a frenzy. But have a look at this chart on any time frame. It's not just about the recent lawsuit. I've never seen such volatility before, in all my years. So - how does one exploit this. Volatility is supposed to be essential to making money in markets - right? Errrh.. so why is this one gonna scare a lot of people? The problem is in finding entry and exit positions! Those with keen eyes, have a look at the amber ATR indicator. Nearly every time there is a Grade A trend switch, $$ should flash in your eyes! It then becomes simple. The trend could decide your entry and exit points! No predictions! Now the challenge is to find a suitable trend switch on the recent moonshot! Note the folly of shorting on ridiculously high or low RSIs. On this chart the RSI peaked most recently at 95.
NASDAQ:QCOMShort
by Captain_Walker
Horrendous market conditions. Can only get better?I do not really know stocks, there might be opportunities there, but aren't they all correlated anyway? All the rest thought, nearly everything is crazy lame. What is this? Why? Too large influx of retail traders 50/50 coinflip prevents markets from trending? There are not even good ranges to trade. What if all these awful retail market participants are making markets random and much less volatile? Ahhh it's all over, we can't make money because of all the noobs that take random guesses on the direction. The Eurodollar for example, it's not tightening, it's like tightening but while pointing down. How does anyone make money in these conditions? Ignorant regulators are joyful "oh the volatility is falling due to trash traders 'buying oversold' great"... markets trend for a reason... So dumb... The smaller the ATR the happier they are, it's unreal "Great! I had a really bad experience when I gave it a try! If markets don't move other idiots like me won't lose money, awesome!". YES, and when that heartbeat stops you will have a beautiful flat line and won't have to worry about anything anymore ^^. Markets dying is clearly an awesome thing for the economy, woohoo! Unbelievable stupidity. Just unreal, I must be dreaming. I don't want to get wealthy by 76 years old. It's going to have to break eventually right? And then the suicidal thoughts will go away, yes, yes... Also for new traders, not the best conditions to learn. There's really nothing to get out of this. I already look at alot of markets... Might have to look at stocks if it does not get better... Assuming they don't get bad too. You CANNOT make money in a random market (well you can make a bit with interests or dividends then... not great). First let's look at the good news: 1- We can always participate in this nice Palladium bubble. It's expensive thought (fees), so only good for swing trading, and not just 2 days. 2- The bane of life on earth is trending, for now, we still get opportunities. I have a feeling it will make a lower high (already made a higher low), and just get tighter. 3- Indices are soaring, seems to be slowing down thought, except for CAC 40. Retail isn't interested in CAC 40. What if this is really the reason everything is dying? Hnnng no please no, gtfo dirty bronzes. 4- There is the Turkish Lira but I don't want to lose everything... Could trade it on a separate broker and be protected by negative balance protection... It's going up and interest for buy is pretty high... So long term swing trades are not that interesting. Turkey paying huge interest with imaginary money making it bad... Erdogan ruined the country... And can't even short the Lira too much interest rates, or maybe it's still worth it. I really would rather stay away. Now for the bad news, 185 points. I'll only show a few examples rather than all of them ;) Virtually all currency pairs are bad and offering very little opportunities... Silver has not been interesting for so long... Even soft commodities are not interesting...
by MrRenev
3
Changes in the bitcoin price predictions with google trends. I see, it exists alredy some changes of the behavior of google trends vs. bitcoin price ... 1.) The price falled in November 2018 AND the people wanted to know - Why? 2.) If the interesting falling (google trends lowers), some (big) investors trying to buy a big chunk - it results in a slowly (!!!) deflation... ((they don't want a hype!!! They are clever... They trying to regulate it... The Trustee at MtGox don't moved the remaining 165000 bitcoins to the market - so I am neutral with a little LONG of course. I investing already in ALTcoins again. Every bitcoin hype followed by an ALTcoin hype... But we have some ALT already, they are near to bitcoin: Bitcoin CASH, Bitcoin GOLD, ... AND RSK Smart Bitcoin :D But my favourites: Obyte (with DAG), Ignis, Ardor, ...)) Please see my post on the bitcoinlak also about this changes in the price analyse. I am ifinta on the bitcointalk.org since 2011. Please use my UNLICENCED ideas :) from bitcointalk.org also... bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=28645;sa=showPosts I use google trends in analyse since ~2013... I published this kind of price prediction here in Nov. 2015 :)
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by ifinta
A Fundamental Fundamental Analysis of Cyrpto Market Tonight, I wanted to do something a little different and look at crypto at a macro level, using the BitcoinUSD pair as my basis, since it is widely considered the "reserve currency" of cryptocurrency. I'm using Coinbase exchange, since it is arguably the most available to everyday people, so I can look at the broad sentiment of the market, not just traders, bots or enthusiasts. I want this to be a guide for me in the future, aswell as a guide for anyone who's wondering what happened back in 2017-2019. For those viewing this in March 2019, I'm not neccesarily "bullish" on Bitcoin right now, but in the long term, the way I see it there is no reason for bitcoin to NOT go up, short of a failure to solve the scalability debate, but its in my belief that one cryptocurrency (I'm personally rooting for Ether) will be able to do that AND maintain security on the blockchain. tl;dr,: There was extreme FUD that lead to the cryptocurrency crash of 2018. The beginning of 2019 is the first time Bitcoin has looked bullish in one and a half years. As a result, this may be the start of another cycle, and accumulation will begin here. However, I believe a cap to Bitcoin's performance is its' scalability, and we will not see an increase in price past ATH without a solution. First, I need to talk about what started the bull market: Block Reward Halving - Reduced supply, increased demand via demonstration of technology Ripple Rumors - this was back when coinbase listings were HUGE, a definite boost to the price( I actually remember my french teacher telling me to buy in before this. Guy traded rare metals, but was somehow above the curve.) Bitcoin Fork - This one is big, I discuss it below. The best thing about this time (other than the ripple rumors) is that it was a great demonstration of how Bitcoin can really function. The bitcoin fork debate was a long and overdue controversy that was honestly, keeping bitcoin down. Such uncertainty was pretty much preventing people like me and you from being able to explain why they should get bitcoin when it has the opportunity of literally breaking soon. Aswell, all of the toxicity brewed in the space made it so those checking out Bitcoin on social media were suddenly flunged into this internet flame war of hatred and vitriol and a whole lot of uninformed people talking about one of the most complex monetary and information systems to come out, since the internet. Just to drive this point home, imagine that when nerds in their basements were discussing the formation of "an internet" that they also had all of their life savings invested into this... yeah yikes, but it did play out for a lot of them. With the removal of this huge uncertainty, and the addition of a new currency Bitcoin Cash, money began to flow into the market. It was also a demonstration of the two important mechanics of Satoshi Nakamoto's white paper. Forks and Halving. Both successfully done showed that Bitcoin had at least the game theory aspect to become a real autonomous currency. So with all of this, why did Bitcoin fail in 2018? Simply put, it is not ready to be used as a true currency yet. We have to remember that the goal is to replace all credit cars, VISA is capable of >24,000 transactions per second. Bitcoin is capable of a measly 3-7 (without LN). This is why Bitcoin wasn't going to succeed in the first place, it wasn't and still isn't ready for the wider market. Everyone reading this should view Bitcoin as an ALPHA of a revolutionary monetary, financial, informational, and currency system. This is big. Lets look at the events that lead to Bitcoin's 2018 crash: Mempool fills up - $30 transactions prove that Bitcoin is unuseable Bitconnect Crash Korea FUD - in hindsight, this wasn't even nearly that bad. However, at the time it filled markets with uncertainty Coincheck hack - Millions lost on Japanese exchange SEC Statment on ICOs, Binance is sortof hacked? ICO ads are banned on Social Media EMA death cross - From a TA point of view, this is when you were to sell. China Bans exchanges - grossly over exagerated at the time, China is still a big part of crypto as well Bitcoin Tanks on Bitcoin SV fork - I'm going to be honest, I sort of blame Craig Wright for creating the FUD that demolished the crypto market in November. In retrospect, the amount of bad news that was coming out in the time its understandable why the market crashed like it did. The amount of FUD that was induced in pretty much normal investors was going to definitely shake out a ton of weak hands, and as a result the market tanked. I'm not going to talk about all of these, since its very self explanatory. The market was tanked by a ton of FUD. Aswell, the same thing that brought the rise of Bitcoin took it down, Forks. During the time Bitcoin SV was challenging Bitcoin Cash, the fear in the market was palpable. Craig Wright really did sound like he had thought it all out, and was going to crash a cryptocurrency. This would be catastrophic for the concept of Blockchain based cryptocurrencies. It would prove that a malicious actor with enough capital can destroy your investment if he felt like it. Thank fully, were passed that, and now it serves as another reinforcement of Satoshi's fork protocol. The December - January period for crypto was extremely weird time for me to be in crypto. Typically, when I would tell people about crypto, they would say I was invested in a Ponzi since they didnt understand how markets and value works. However, during this time, I would tell them "hey you should check out ethereum" and they would say "yeah I already bought a ton of REQ" , or a token or XRP. What I noticed was, they didn't know anything about how crypto worked. They thought, since ethereum and bitcoin were too high of a price, that they couldn't buy a divisable form of it, despite that being one of the cornerstone parts of the cryptocurrency. I was absolutely shocked and dumbfounded at the same time. Here it was, the great rally of my lifetime, everyone getting into crypto, my insane ramblings about the future of smart contracts was about to be met, and everyone around me was buying XRP because "It was only a couple of cents bro". This is why I've came to come up with a new indicator of when to sell. I dub it "the normie crypto index". Just ask 10 people not familiar with markets, if they are invested in bitcoin or crypto. If the overwhelming majority say yes, get bearish because you are in the "public participation" phase. But in all seriousness, at the time you could definitely tell there was too much FOMO at the time. You can look at google trends chart, youtube views for cyrptos, or even ICO money raised levels. They were aboslutely insane, and they were overbought. We can actually see this on the RSI, showing that at this period it was overbought. You may be asking yourself, well why is it fine to be high now, but not then. That is because the price isn't at the top right now. In fact, the RSI doesn't neccesarily indicate a sell , just when the market is overbuying. This can be a good thing as demonstrated by the several overbought zones of bitcoin in the past. It is healthy for bitcoin to be overbought sometimes, and then consolidate, and repeat. However, when the RSI was overbought then, it was just pure exuberance. The beginning of 2019 is the first time that cryptocurrency markets look bullish. There is still bad news, such as Quadriga's CEO death, but it's not at the same rate and severity of 2018. Since the price is so low, were seeing massive amounts of market manipulation with random bot spikes every other day. Consider using these to your advantage. Place a buy at a low point on the graph and wait for a whale to dump it onto your buy order. In all case, if you do chose to follow my analysis( at your own risk, im not responsible for your trades), then anytime in the accumulation phase would be fine, even Dollar Cost Averaging can reduce the risk that bots present. In all, markets look "better" then before, but I would not consider this the definite "bottom" until we break the descending trendline, and maybe until we break the 50 day EMA. Be careful, we've all seen a descending triangle before in 2018, and there is a STRONG risk that markets take a nose dive to 2k levels. I still wouldn't consider this the end of cryptocurrency as I told you earlier, bitcoin is in its infancy, and it will, either in concept as a blockchains proliferate, or as a serious contender in the future. If you made it down here, Thank you for reading this. Please give me your comments on this. Tell me what I did wrong, good, or what I missed. I really appreciate you having read, or at least skimming down here.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Jorji
Citi Bank Bullish Breakout?Can we see a breakout in NYSE:C ? I currently say this because ever since the 14th of January of 2019 it has been consolidating between the resistance line at the $65.23 and the support at $60.81. For myself the RSI and MACD are the most important indicator to me. As you can see the MACD has crossed just before the 3rd run to the resistance and the RSI is yet to be oversold. Posting this today the price has came close to the resistance line just by $0.6. I believe that if we see the price break through the resistance than it will breakout and we can see the target price to be around the $69.00 range. ALSO, there was a big right triangle forming and as of today it has also broken through the right triangle resistance line. So this should be interesting to look at if it can break through 2 resistance lines.
NYSE:CLong
by jrotth
2
Trend is changing!? BTC going down!?Hi Guys! As we see on this 1 D chart on Coinbase, we have some changes in the trend. I guess the uptrend is now exhausted and want to come down lower. Could be a healthy correction to the Fib level of 0.786 or complete melt down? If BTC breaks the upward sloping trend line which is established for several months, then I see levels at least at the yearly lows of 2018 near 3,1 k. Could form a real double bottom and start the sideways trend for the next 5-6 months. Accumulation phase. I see both scenarios playing out at the very moment, but first, we need the confirmation of the breakdown. I need to see 3750 levels break first. Let's see... Happy and safe trading! *This is not financial advice, this is only an idea. Do your own research and act on your responsibility.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by SWINGPROFESSOR
EURUSD Gann Year Cycle Complete, Moon PhasesThe EURUSD has moved to the very end of Gann’s final inner year cycle, the year cycle (360-365 days). This extends from the 2018 swing high on Feb 16th, 2018 to February 18th, 2019. Just below at 1.1224 is the 3/8th Major Harmonic, which represents the lower trading range between 3/8th Major Harmonic and the 5/8th Major Harmonic at 1.3186. But those price levels are mostly moot. What is important is the metric crap ton of cycles that have culminated here. First, the Gann Cycles. 1. 360 day cycle: complete, indicating a strong trend reversal is imminent. 2. 90-day cycle: From the 2018 low on November 26th, 2018 to the 2019 swing low on February 15th, 2019 – we get the completion of a 90-day Gann cycle. 3. 144-day cycle: From the most recent swing high on September 24th, 2018 to February 15th, 2019 we see a 144-day inner year cycle complete. 4. Close to the end of the current Law of Vibration cycle which ends on March 1st, 2019. Next, we see the astronomical cycles. 1. Mars enters Taurus February 14th 2. Sun enters Pisces February 18th 3. Sun sextile Uranus February 16th 4. Full Moon on February 19th. 5. Moon Perigee on February 19th. The Full Moon that shows up on the 19th is the main triggering event here. When a series of Gann cycles and astronomical cycles culminate into one zone, we generally wait for one final triggering catalyst – that is the Moon Phase. We should expect to see a very violent move from this level next week.
Long
by itsjustanalysis
ETH Bullish?I'm putting all bets on BINANCE:ETHBTC for at least a double in your return. A look at BINANCE:ETHBTC shows us that ETH bounced at known support created a uptrend then retraced shortly with a double bottom and now is in a Wave pattern. I believe we are about to wave up and it will generate some nice returns. ETH is always a safe bet regardless because we already know were its bottom and BTC's bottom is called it in june of last year lol. Anyways mostly everything is pointing bullish on ETH and I am personal going to take the shot. -Thanks for tuning in, a follow would be great! Or maybe a like ;) --Heres my twitter but Im in and out of it twitter.com ---Good Luck on your trades!
Long
by Robbby123
4 Days left for Steem to make a new movementSteem started a descending trend channel from Jan 24th and it finished on Feb 1st, after it started moving within a wedge that has been tested and rejected for both support and resistance. The key level and timeframe is 4 days for it to move above or below the 8100 satoshis level, any break moving above the resistance will head towards the 880 weekly low level tat was created on Dec 22nd and it will probably keep moving within the weekly low level and the monthly of 9365 satoshis level. A move below the support level it will test the 6582 satoshis monthly level, for it to create a new movement. I'm hoping the move will close towards the recovery soon and probably make a 10% increase in a few weeks from now.
Short
by raserrano