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xauusd analysis for mondayTechnical Analysis Key Levels: Support: Primary Support: $2,630–$2,640, a crucial level that has consistently held over the past weeks. Secondary Support: A breakdown below $2,630 could lead to further declines toward $2,600 and $2,570 Resistance: Primary Resistance: $2,670–$2,700, a zone gold must clear to confirm bullish momentum. Extended Target: A sustained move above $2,700 could push gold toward $2,720 or higher, with the long-term target near $2,750 Price Action: Gold has been consolidating around $2,650, indicating indecision in the market. Traders are awaiting a catalyst for a breakout in either direction Indicators: RSI: Neutral, indicating no overbought or oversold conditions. Moving Averages: Gold is trading near its 50-day moving average, reflecting a balance between buyers and sellers. Elliott Wave Analysis: Suggests the current correction phase might end soon, potentially paving the way for an upward movement Fundamental Analysis Key Drivers: 1. Federal Reserve Meeting: A dovish stance or pause in rate hikes could weaken the USD, benefiting gold. Conversely, a hawkish surprise could pressure prices. 2. US Economic Data: Housing Data: Strong numbers may support the USD, weighing on gold. GDP Report: A weaker-than-expected reading could bolster gold's safe-haven appeal, while strong data might strengthen the dollar 3. Global Economic Factors: Geopolitical Risks: Persistent uncertainties may sustain demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Inflation: Gold's role as an inflation hedge keeps it relevant amid ongoing inflationary pressures globally 4. Seasonal Trends: December traditionally sees increased gold demand, linked to year-end portfolio adjustments and festive purchases. Trading Scenarios Bullish Scenario: Entry: Above $2,660 Targets: $2,700, $2,720, and potentially $2,750 Stop-Loss: Below $2,630 Strategy: Look for a confirmed breakout above resistance or positive market sentiment boosting gold. Bearish Scenario: Entry: Below $2,630 Targets: $2,600 and $2,570 Stop-Loss: Above $2,660 Strategy: Watch for rejection at $2,650 or stronger-than-expected US data supporting the USD.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by realmillionairefx
JAPAN 225 INDEX Bullish Projection CHART Technical Analysis of Japan 225 Index (4H Chart) Overview: The Japan 225 index, as depicted on the 4-hour chart, is currently navigating through a complex pattern with multiple trend lines and Fibonacci retracement levels in play. RSI signaling bullish technically, within zone of "overvalued." This is in alignment with both Trends and Horizontal Support along with multiple other indicators. Also to note, it is falling towards the 200 EMA, it is about to close a gap on a pattern that has broken out bullish, which aligns with a major trend and horizontal support area, which then takes us to the next trendline, which is a bearish trend trading in a bullish direction. Essentially, this is a really important zone. Price either breaks downward, and likely closes another gap showing in yellow on the chart OR price hits support and we really start to see an upward climb. This movement would be similar to how the SP500 is melting up towards the 6500 range. Here's a detailed analysis: Trend Analysis: Support Trend Line: The price is holding above a key ascending support trend line, which has been in place for several months. This trend line acts as a bullish indicator, suggesting that the index has been in an uptrend. Descending Resistance Line: There is a descending resistance trend line that the price is approaching. A breakout above this line could signal a continuation of the uptrend and potentially lead to higher targets. Fibonacci Retracement Levels: 38.2% Retracement: The price is currently testing this level around 39,015.11. This is a common retracement level where price often finds support or resistance. 50% Retracement: Located at 38,015.11, this level could act as a strong support if the price breaks below the 38.2% level. 61.8% Retracement: Around 37,015.11, this is a critical level where a deeper pullback might find support before a potential reversal. Volume Analysis: Volume Indicators: There is a noticeable increase in volume at key support and resistance levels, indicating strong buying or selling interest. The recent volume spike suggests significant market activity, which could precede a major move. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD Line and Signal Line: The MACD line is above the signal line, which is typically a bullish sign. However, the histogram shows decreasing momentum, which might indicate a potential slowdown or reversal in the current trend. Price Targets: Upside Targets: If the price breaks above the descending resistance trend line, the next resistance levels to watch are around 39,015.11 (38.2% Fibonacci), followed by 40,015.11 and 41,015.11. Downside Targets: A break below the ascending support trend line could see the price retesting the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels, around 38,015.11 and 37,015.11, respectively. Conclusion: The Japan 225 index is at a critical juncture, with multiple technical indicators suggesting both potential continuation of the uptrend and possible consolidation or pullback. Traders should watch for a breakout above the descending resistance or a breakdown below the ascending support for clearer directional cues. Monitoring volume and MACD for confirmation of these moves will be crucial for making informed trading decisions.
TVC:NI225Long
by nicktussing77
DOW 41k, YOU'RE GONNA WANNA PAY ATTENTION TO THIS PRICE TARGET41k is a massive resistance price target meaning, it is likely to hit allowing exits at profit. If it hits there is potential to see it bounce around even as high as 54k in a short term, but ultimately, at some point it will need to retest the lower end price targets. If it were to do that sooner rather than later, it allows for a more natural growth in the price. Meaning, there is a lot of potential to see the price melt up from 41k and then keep going. OR more likely, there is a lot of potential to see a drop, possibly even a steep drop from 41k. Either way, the downside takes us around 20% and then as high as 40% down from 41k. I included 9k as a potential target, but I don't think we see baring a nuclear bomb being set off on the moon, but anything is possible. All in Mark Cuban, Sold stake in Mavs Jeff Bezos, Sold Amazon stock Warren Buffet, Sold Apple Ryan and Carl, Buying BBBY Multiple sports teams for sale, sold or being shopped Massive deals everywhere If you need any more signs that a top is near, with potential to crash hard allowing for a buy the dip scenario. Here is a small sample of it.
DJ:DJI
by nicktussing77
1
PFE chart update, Medicine is expensive So essentially, I tried to follow the trends. When doing so, it does form an interesting pattern. It almost looks like a long position chance. It depends on where support lands with price action, and where the trend breakout occurs, as there is a nice gap setup on the charts that puts PFE on a climb and allows it to form a bullish long term trend. Should trend break down past last support and confirm that underside exit, it would probably signal a bearish move is more likely. However, It's a neat setup to watch. good luck Link to other PFE chart will be attached.
NYSE:PFELong
by nicktussing77
1
TLRY cannabis stocksHexo turned out to be a bummer pick but TLRY is still remaining Which leads me to believe that the only thing that could cause a price to drop this much and then project this high upwards, has got to be due to federal legalization THC drinks and possibly more. Lots of legal hoops to jump through for states and cannabis and more, but there is good that comes from legalization, meaning research money, meaning jobs, meaning genetics, meaning new ways of grow cannabis and using it that could ultimately be safer to consume vs now, maybe leads to dosages being figured out and effects to be specifically altered per user or use or effect or whatever you want to imagine. Maybe not every state is ready to allow it but it seems across the board, it's a favorable issue for a lot of members of both parties. I've heard trump say, he doesn't need or want to use it but he has seen it do amazing things to help other, I've heard Kamala can help undo damage done during the course of a long a difficult career, and allow people who were simply selling to get by vs selling to commit crime and harm others, which ultimately means, she could probably do some good with the current fentanyl issue. As clearly she is now thinking about it from some views other than her own and how it can be used as a net good. On top of that, it's clear the big companies or execs maybe even pharma companies need a look and a whole lot of questions asked about why cannabis caused the inability to fund through loans, borrow money, pay with credit and more. So TLRY has overseas connections, favorable politics swinging their way through years of work, and drinks infused with THC, which as more research comes out, there might be ways to safely allow bars to serve drinks without someone being unable to get home within a reasonable amount of time. Would this ever occur, maybe, but the important key to take away is open research and money into science and then obviously trying to work with Mexico to literally end cartels (I have deep core ties to Columbia) and Escobar from stories I've heard personally and have no idea if they are true, really took care of the area he controlled, but yeah, he also probably was doing some awful stuff to others. Lesson to learn here is that maybe some evil can be treated with a new direction, but some evil needs two major governments and police/technology and security that both keeps each place within their areas trying to solve a common goal and allowing each other to assist when a task is too difficult to handle on their own or ours. And clearly show the world that Mexico won't allow groups of evil to thrive and America can secure the border by doing it all in Mexico which could then theoretically lead to a an open border discussion, but say what you want. There is a major issue with cocaine usage and literally and knowingly killing other humans to profit, which is maybe evil, and something we could easily do which defense stocks getting obviously so much money pretty much all the time. Again, why can't we help our vets to the point where it's not a issue? And they can seek help without losing status, rank, pay, benefits and more. again, political views aside, America has a bad ass military that runs one hell of task, why aren't we using them to flush out corruption and evil and still find a way to maintain being an ideal view of how the military used to stand up to bad, and maybe we should have listened better should a former president suggest that money can cause an issue where oversight is gone, paraphrasing of course, as it's quite obvious this president have some serious foresight and tried to express that concern. finally, cut anything out of this that you want to make it make sense in your world, but to make short a sweet, legalization allows the states more power, gives institutions power to direct lots of money towards meaningful research, gives avenues where we can actually start to work on the drugs that are laced with awful stuff coming into the country so frequently. And then you figure out who funds it and destroy whatever is left of that system, maybe dismantle is a better term, and start to setup some form of life that means someone in south america shouldn't feel the need to risk their life to leave their home, or why so many innocent people die for "drugs" which is probably a way better start a securing the border. A big wall can still have value in metal, and value can lead to an even better wall for cyber crimes, especially as we head to space. The space force is no joke, It was some well done prep work from former presidents and a realization of how much valuable stuff will be in a space making it targets for "evil" Why do I say all of this, probably because a big first step is exactly the one I mention, legalization, and then locking up or whatever the leader decides is needed at that time. Ideally with a new lens of money being used to manipulate others at will. but my view is just one, I can't say my way is best, right or even possible, but again, legal leads to open freedom in safe environments. In fact, maybe the best person to handle an issue like that is someone who is potentially willing to legalize something that her decisions in the past have led to jail or worse.
NASDAQ:TLRYLong
by nicktussing77
1
BA BOEING LONGER TERM TECHNICAL TREND VIEWIt's start to hit a really need spot when it comes to price target. These trends are the same on my previous ba chart, this entire chart is pretty much unchanged from that view. However, I wanted to update it because I feel there is a really key support trend about to be tested, which if it gets under that, look out for some buying to step in which is typically seen on a trend break like that. The next line of support comes in at this ultra low zone of mid 80. However, there is still a trend, that can take the price down lower in an overall market dip. it's the most unlikely option as it literally takes the price to $45, however, I guess anything is technically possible, BUT UNLIKLEY IS KEY to take away from that. Still feel it worth mentioning, not because I want to be right, but because I would rather you see that it was a price target identified as support and buying into fear if things start to look favorable, could be profitable. Again unlikely scenario. Overall, I added some lines I'm curious to see how they play out longer term, don't follow these specifically (red arrows). Extended the green buy zone below trend to show the extend zone if price gets under a major trend line. Boeing rejected my idea of outdoor seating and a more open feel like restaurants did with outdoor seating. I submitted the plan drawing and they were all like science and measurements and stuff, but honestly, I was like ok, fine, I'll take my plan to spirit airlines. Okay obviously I'm joking. But boring stock charts need drawings. They did however tell me to come back for a longer meeting to talk about my idea about relaxing the corporate environment with wear your super hero suit to work day. Obviously I'm going to double down on my pitch about outdoor seating. I made an all text power point that should get them pretty happy, it has letters and they form sentences. I didn't check if all the sentences make any sense, but I figure it's all show to really razzle dazzle them with the outdoor seating. okay back to serious. but personal opinion. Conspiracy, not respectful of the death linked to the outbreak and those sick, call it whatever you want, but is it really outside of reason to ask a question on the timing. Until proof is out there obviously I fully would accept the view, it's related to the e coli outbreak, it will cost a lot of money to recover, my investments were better spent in other places. overall, if bad news shows up similar to mcdonalds, maybe something else isn't being talked about enough. Especially should price respond well to support lines on the way down and into bad news. Often times when a major trend like this is in play (rejection/support) it comes with seemly the opposite news that it should get per the movement. I think there are times when there are always things happening to a company and if it's beneficial, it's not outside of the box thinking to say, are "ethics" being followed and what would it look like if yes/no or whatever your question leads you to ask. In a sense, could I limit exposure to most of the bad my company does and maximize the exposure of a "bad" thing should I suddenly need to leave a big position with news of say, minimum wage or something that might affect a company like it could with mcdonalds. Politics can get nasty. Why do I link the auto industry, because I happen to like Michigan and the Great Lakes and Detroit is a pretty cool place. You can't stop people from doing terrible things but you can seemly get a group of people who like the stock and buy the dip. So, as Michigan becomes a key battleground state, it's not at all crazy to ask, what would be an easy target to manipulate the news in my favor, given enough planning, knowledge and money. Personally I love the potential for a huge comeback in the car industry with tesla and self driving. Tesla will have spent so much money taking the first steps through legal and AI challenges, at what point would it just be easier to say hey Tesla, if we can make some awesome cars, can we like maybe contract some software within our brand. Brings the company more back to the roots where they were designing some really cool looking cars for the brand, not just a new model every year so the loan machine keeps going. I'm not all doom and gloom as I come across in this post. I think it's important to ask these questions as politics start to really get pushed to people in Michigan who have no idea why their long term companies could be on the brink of bankruptcy.
NYSE:BA
by nicktussing77
2
LTC: Leading the Market with Doge, But Awaiting a Key BreakoutLTC is showing strong performance compared to many other coins in the market, with Doge following a similar trend. In the purple box, we can clearly see a breakout from the short-term trendline, signaling some positive momentum. However, for a full trend reversal, we need a decisive break of the longer yellow trendline, which may take more time. The Hurst cycles at the bottom (illustrated by the semicircles) show that LTC’s up-and-down movement is following a consistent pulse. If we do see a break of the upper yellow trendline, the next target could be marginally new all-time highs, though that won’t likely happen for some time yet.
Long
by cryptechcapital
DOGECOIN MAJOR BUY ZONE INCOMING AND POTENTIALLY LOWER?Here's the important numbers for doge at the moment. You can adjust them a bit for your needs. There is some really short term indicators that, when reset, put everything in alignment to see a lot of bullish movement coming into DOGE. Again, because the market is the market it can easily break through this strong trend it's about to hit. Good news is it falls to support at .0888 Even better news, should it fall more, there is support at an even lower level, likely. I'd be looking to see if I can get my position set soon. I think there is a bullish future for this good dog. Watch SHIB for a bigger move to the upside, with a drop that would be to basically zero. Doge has the support to take it up to .29 and maybe even .45, and as quick as dogecoin can confirm a jump like that, you'll see it at probably $10. I've been consistently super bullish on this coin, and currently, I'm liking the look of the chart.
COINBASE:DOGEUSDLong
by nicktussing77
Is the Dow's Relentless Rise a Harbinger of Future Fortune or a In an era of unprecedented market dynamics, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has embarked on a journey of remarkable consistency, painting a picture of resilience that challenges historical norms. With a win rate approaching 61% over the past 250 trading days and impressive gains across multiple time frames, the Dow's current momentum stands as a testament to the market's enduring strength. This rare confluence of positive indicators places the present rally in the top echelons of market performances since 1900, excluding the tech bubble of 1995-2000. Yet, as investors and analysts alike ponder the implications of this historic run, a question emerges: Does this exceptional momentum presage a continuation of bullish trends, or does it signal the approach of a market inflection point? Historical precedents offer a nuanced perspective, suggesting the potential for continued short-term gains while hinting at the possibility of increased volatility or stagnation in the longer term. The market's ability to sustain this momentum may hinge on factors as diverse as global economic conditions and the transformative potential of emerging technologies like artificial intelligence. As we stand at this crossroads of market history, investors are challenged to look beyond the surface-level exuberance and delve deeper into the complexities of market cycles and technological revolutions. The Dow's current trajectory invites us to consider not just the immediate opportunities but also the broader implications for portfolio strategies and risk management in an ever-evolving financial landscape. In navigating these uncharted waters, wisdom lies in balancing optimism with prudence, recognizing that in the dance of market forces, momentum is but one partner in a complex choreography of factors shaping our financial future.
TVC:DJILong
by signalmastermind
2
MARKET STRUCTURE explained (THE ULTIMATE SIMPLIFIED GUIDE)(In this guide I will attempt for explain Market Structure in the most simplified and easy to understand terms) WHAT IS MARKET STRUCTURE? Market structure is the overall framework of a market that helps traders understand price movements and trends. Think of it as the skeleton of the market, showing how prices move over time and where key levels of support and resistance are located. COMPONENTS OF MARKET STRUCTURE: TRENDS: Trends are the general direction in which the market is moving. There are three main types of trends: - UPTREND: This is when the market is moving upwards. It is characterized by a series of higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL). Imagine a staircase going up; each step represents a higher high and a higher low. - HIGHER HIGH (HH): The highest point reached during a price movement before the price starts to fall again. - HIGHER LOW (HL): The lowest point reached during a price movement before the price starts to rise again. - DOWNTREND: This is when the market is moving downwards. It is characterized by a series of lower lows (LL) and lower highs (LH). Think of a staircase going down; each step represents a lower low and a lower high. - LOWER LOW (LL): The lowest point reached during a price movement before the price starts to rise again. -LOWER HIGH (LH): The highest point reached during a price movement before the price starts to fall again. - SIDEWAYS/RANGE-BOUND: This is when the market is moving horizontally, neither up nor down. It is characterized by equal highs (EQH) and equal lows (EQL). Picture a flat road; the price moves back and forth within a certain range. - EQUAL HIGH (EQH): The highest point reached during a price movement that is roughly the - EQUAL LOW (EQL): The lowest point reached during a price movement that is roughly the same as previous lows. SUPPORT & RESISTANCE LEVELS: - SUPPORT: A support level is a price point where the market tends to find buying interest, preventing the price from falling further. Think of it as a floor that supports the price. - RESISTANCE: A resistance level is a price point where the market tends to find selling interest, preventing the price from rising further. Think of it as a ceiling that resists the price. SWING POINTS: Swing points are the peaks and troughs that form the structure of the market. They help in identifying the trend direction. - SWING HIGH: A peak formed when the price reaches a high point and then starts to decline. - SWING LOW: A trough formed when the price reaches a low point and then starts to rise. ANALYZING MARKET STRUCTURE: IDENTIFY THE TREND: To identify the trend, look at the sequence of highs and lows on the price chart: - UPTREND: Look for a series of higher highs and higher lows. - DOWNTREND: Look for a series of lower lows and lower highs. - SIDEWAYS: Look for equal highs and equal lows. MARK KEY LEVELS: Identify and mark significant support and resistance levels on the chart. These levels are where the price has previously reversed or paused. OBSERVE PRICE ACTION: Analyze how the price reacts at these key levels. Look for patterns such as: - BREAKOUTS: When the price moves above a resistance level or below a support level. - REVERSALS: When the price changes direction after reaching a support or resistance level. - CONSOLIDATIONS: When the price moves within a narrow range, indicating indecision in the market. RISK MANAGEMENT: Always use stop-loss orders to manage risk. Place stop-loss orders: - Below support levels in an uptrend. - Above resistance levels in a downtrend. ================================================================================== This is the basics of Market Structure, explained in the most simplified manner as possible. I hope this publication was simple and easy to understand and helps you understand Market structure better. I will be doing more easy to understand publications like this within the upcoming days so stay tune... ================================================================================== HAPPY TRADING :)
BLACKBULL:NAS100Education
by avziofficial
Volatility in Focus: A Trader's Perspective on S&P 500 Futures1. Introduction Volatility is a critical concept for traders in any market, and the E-mini S&P 500 Futures are no exception. Traditionally, traders have relied on tools such as the Average True Range (ATR) and Historic Volatility (HV) to measure and understand market volatility. These tools provide a snapshot of how much an asset's price fluctuates over a given period, helping traders to gauge potential risk and reward. ATR measures market volatility by analyzing the range of price movement, often over a 14-day period. It reflects the degree of price movement but doesn’t differentiate between upward or downward volatility. Historic Volatility looks at past price movements to calculate how much the price has deviated from its average. It’s a statistical measure that gives traders a sense of how volatile the market has been in the past. While these traditional tools are invaluable, they offer a generalized view of volatility. For traders seeking a more nuanced and actionable understanding, it's essential to distinguish between upside and downside volatility—how much and how fast the market moves up or down. This article introduces a pragmatic, trader-focused approach to measuring volatility in the E-mini S&P 500 Futures. By analyzing daily, weekly, and monthly volatility from both the upside and downside perspectives, we aim to provide insights that can better prepare traders for the real-world dynamics of the market. 2. Methodology: Volatility Calculation from a Trader’s Perspective In this analysis, we take a more nuanced approach by separating volatility into two distinct categories: upside volatility and downside volatility. The idea is to focus on how much the market tends to move up versus how much it moves down, providing a clearer picture of potential risks and rewards. Volatility Calculation Method: o Daily Volatility: Daily upside volatility is calculated as the percentage change from the prior day's close to the next day’s high, assuming the next day’s high is higher than the prior day’s close. Daily downside volatility is the percentage change from the prior day's close to the next day’s low, assuming the next day’s low is lower than the prior day’s close. o Weekly Volatility: Weekly upside volatility is determined by comparing the previous Friday’s close to the highest point during the following week, assuming the market went higher than the prior Friday’s close. Weekly downside volatility is calculated by comparing the previous Friday’s close to the lowest point during the following week, assuming the market went lower than the prior Friday’s close. o Monthly Volatility: Monthly upside volatility is measured by taking the percentage change from the prior month’s close to the next month’s high, assuming prices moved higher than the prior monthly close. Monthly downside volatility is calculated by comparing the prior month’s close to the lowest point of the following month, assuming prices moved lower than the prior monthly close. 3. Volatility Analysis The E-mini S&P 500 Futures exhibit distinct patterns when analyzed from the perspective of upside and downside volatility. By measuring the daily/weekly/monthly fluctuations using the trader-focused approach discussed earlier, we gain valuable insights into how the market behaves on a day-to-day basis. Key Insights: Trend Observation: The data reveals that during periods of market distress, such as financial crises or sudden economic downturns, downside volatility tends to spike significantly. This indicates a greater propensity for the market to fall rapidly compared to its upward movements. Implication for Traders: Understanding these patterns allows traders to anticipate the potential risks and adjust their strategies accordingly. For instance, in highly volatile environments, traders might consider tightening their stop losses or hedging their positions to protect against sudden downturns. 4. Comparative Analysis: Rolling Volatility Differences To gain deeper insights into the behavior of the E-mini S&P 500 Futures, it’s useful to compare the rolling differences between upside and downside volatility over time. Rolling Volatility Differences Explained: Rolling Analysis: A rolling analysis calculates the difference between upside and downside volatility over a set period, such as 252 days for daily data (approximately one trading year), 52 weeks for weekly data, or 12 months for monthly data. This method smooths out short-term fluctuations, allowing us to see more persistent trends in how the market behaves. Volatility Difference: The volatility difference is simply the upside volatility minus the downside volatility. A positive value suggests that upside movements were more significant during the period, while a negative value indicates stronger downside movements. Key Insights: Trend Observation: The rolling difference analysis reveals that downside volatility generally dominates, particularly during periods of economic uncertainty or financial crises. This confirms the common belief that markets tend to fall faster than they rise. Implication for Traders: Traders could use rolling volatility differences to anticipate changes in market conditions. A widening gap in favor of downside volatility may signal increasing risk and the potential for further declines. Conversely, a narrowing or positive rolling difference could suggest improving market sentiment and potential opportunities for long positions. 5. Volatility Trends Over Time Understanding the frequency and conditions under which upside or downside volatility dominates can provide traders with valuable insights into market behavior. By analyzing the percentage of days, weeks, and months where upside volatility exceeds downside volatility, we can better grasp the nature of market trends over time. Volatility Trends Explained: Percentage of Days with Greater Upside Volatility: This metric shows the percentage of trading days within a given year where the upside volatility was higher than the downside volatility. It highlights the frequency with which the market experienced more significant upward movements compared to downward ones on a daily basis. Percentage of Weeks with Greater Upside Volatility: Similarly, this metric calculates the percentage of weeks in a year where the upside volatility was greater than the downside. It provides a broader perspective on market trends, capturing sustained movements within weekly timeframes. Percentage of Months with Greater Upside Volatility: This metric reflects the percentage of months in a year where upside volatility exceeded downside volatility. It is particularly useful for identifying longer-term trends and understanding the market’s behavior over extended periods. Key Insights: Trend Observation: Historically, again, we can see the data shows that downside volatility tends to dominate, especially during periods of market stress. However, there are years where upside volatility has been more frequent. Implication for Traders: Traders can use these insights to adjust their strategies based on the prevailing market conditions. In years where downside volatility is more frequent, defensive strategies or hedging might be more appropriate. Conversely, in years where upside volatility dominates, traders might consider more aggressive or trend-following strategies. 6. Key Takeaways for Traders The analysis of the E-mini S&P 500 Futures’ volatility, broken down by daily, weekly, and monthly intervals, provides crucial insights for traders. Understanding the distinct patterns of upside and downside volatility is essential for making informed trading decisions, particularly in a market that often behaves asymmetrically. Practical Conclusions for Traders: Risk Management: Given the dominance of downside volatility, traders should prioritize risk management strategies. This includes using stop-loss orders, protective options, and other hedging techniques to mitigate potential losses during volatile periods. Strategic Positioning: Traders might consider adjusting their position sizes or employing defensive strategies during periods of heightened downside volatility. Conversely, when upside volatility shows signs of strengthening, more aggressive positioning or trend-following strategies could be beneficial. Timing Entries and Exits: Understanding the patterns of volatility can help traders better time their entries and exits. For instance, entering the market during periods of lower downside volatility or after a significant downside spike can offer better risk-reward opportunities. Adaptability: The key to successful trading in volatile markets is adaptability. Traders should remain flexible and adjust their strategies based on the prevailing market conditions, as indicated by the volatility analysis. By incorporating these insights into their trading approach, traders can better navigate the E-mini S&P 500 Futures market, enhancing their ability to capitalize on opportunities while managing risks effectively. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by traddictiv
6
Does the USA sill have something left in the tank?With the recent news of the FED being close to a new rate cut, it's important to start considering the possibility of the market going even higher. However, it's hard for price to keep pushing up when it's already overextended. Not saying this doesn't happen because it does. Price does tend to break the rules of statistics, given the irrationality of people. However now that most stocks are currently in an uptrend, it's hard to believe this performance will continue for much. It's likely that several stocks will begin to start forming downtrends, pushing the percentage of stocks in an uptrend down. When looking at the chats, the cyclicality of growth spurts is quite notorious. However, not every time that a down turn in the index is followed, the vast majority of stocks being in an uptrend. Although this does tend to happen, as I've circled here in many examples. However, other examples don't show this same pattern and instead see price move even higher. This is because using the percentage of stocks in an uptrend as an indicator is not painting a full picture. Even if many stocks being going into downtrends, the force and extent of which these trends form is what actually drives price action in the index. So we should expect several stocks to begin underperforming in the next couple of days. But if the stocks that have just recently entered an uptrend keep providing strong results, it's still possible for the index to keep on going higher. The direction of the index will depend on the strength of the new form trends and the soon-to-be formed downtrends.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by DarkMessiah777
ADA, CAN IT BE PART OF THE DIGITAL GOLDRUSH?ADA chart RSI favorable on smaller charts, not so favorable on bigger charts. Potential to see a dip and BIG run. One support trend. Buy zone marked Price targets marked Potential to see a wick down to 10 cents, but lots of potential to hold that sub 30 cent price. I'd be patient, and see what happens before jumping in, but having said that, short term could rocket the price, however, it really needs to clear 63, in my opinion. I think the potential is there to see a quick drop to price targets and a run to all time highs, which aligns with a lot of the crypto market.
CRYPTO:ADAUSD
by nicktussing77
6
BTC trends you won't find anywhere else. See the original chart with DWEB trend made Gann fans. Symmetry, alignment, and intersections provide confluence, levels and possible major pivots within the 4.5 day window on each side of the vertical lines. Long term, I am always long. This is broad outlook and we have a long way to go, so this is not a signal chart. This gives you trends to follow as support and resistance, live. This is only one feature of my custom indicator DWEB which seeks balance and equilibrium points in both time and price.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by CaptBlackBeard
Trends still show upward movement; CPI Data this weekSo trends that called for upward movement confirmed this upward movement last week. I had mentioned in my last video that the candlestick pattern for May 1st was extremely bullish, the following two days confirmed that movement in my opinion and given that trends called for upward movement, we crossed above the zero line on MACD Momentum into a bullish zone, and we were pushing above that Daily lower high resistance level around 5160, I went long. I did cash that trade out around 5260 for a $5000 trade. Given the uncertainty of how CPI could come in, I am likely to stick out until I see that data this Wednesday. While I'm not certain what Core CPI will do, and that SHOULD be the main data point we pay attention to, I have concerns based on a 10% hike in gas prices over much of April that Headline CPI could come in above expectations and cause at least an initial panic sell off. We are nearing the potential for an overbought state on MFI/RSI on the daily, so watch for algo trading around those levels as well, at least on the initial touch. Obviously we rented living space in overbought territory at the beginning of this year, so it doesn't mean we have to reverse at all, especially in this FOMO market. I continue to see the current conditions as very bullish, in spite of significant concerns I have for the ES Economy overall. While there was a time when the US Markets reflected the state of the US Economy, I think we have a massive disconnect between the two that was caused by the COVID Pandemic. I think the new trend is when the economy looks rough, dump money into Mag 7 / NYFAANG / or basically whatever hyper select group of stocks equals the majority of the market cap out there, which will just push markets higher in spite of economic conditions. Walmart Earnings on Thursday will be something to watch, moreso as it might show insight into consumer health more than what is actually happening with Walmart. Trends into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ES Contract) 30m - 5251 Uptrend (5/13/2024) Higher High 1Hr - 5241 Downtrend (5/10/2024) Higher Low 2Hr - 5229 Uptrend (5/9/2024) Higher High 3Hr - 5157 Uptrend (5/3/2024) Higher High 4Hr - 5148 Uptrend (5/3/2024) Higher High 6Hr - 5148 Uptrend (5/3/2024) Higher High 12Hr - 5188 Uptrend (5/6/2024) Higher High Daily - 5166 Downtrend (4/12/2023) Higher Low Weekly - 4769 Uptrend (12/11/2023) Higher High Monthly - 5304 Uptrend (03/31/2024) Higher High Economic Data; PPI & Powell Speaking on Tuesday CPI on Wednesday Jobs data on Thursday Earnings; Home Depot Tuesday Walmart on Thursday Geopolitical; Russia has had a major push into Ukraine, not sure it will matter but there is the potential for a major offensive to pick up pace there. Israel / Hamas conflict continues to be a concern but doesn't seem to have much influence on markets at the moment. Overall Sentiment; Shorter Term - Neutral Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Mmmm... really undecided on this one Long Term - Bullish Overall, I could see a quick pull back overall this week, but even if this happens I think the market will heal whatever dip we have and we will end higher overall by the end of next week. Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan!
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SemperTrader