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Trendfollowing

NZDJPY Trade Idea - Elliott WaveLet’s discuss the price chart of the NZDJPY currency pair based on the 480 minute timeframe. From the Elliott Wave perspective, the price has likely completed Wave (4) with a 23% Fib retracement of the Wave (3). This is a typical retracement level when Wave (3) is extended by more than 161%, which is the case here. From the Hurst Cycles perspective, the composite model line which measures the combined cyclical pressure, bottomed on March 11 (1st vertical line), and is projected to form a top on April 18 (2nd vertical line). Based on this, we can expect prices to continue moving higher within the current uptrend. Price should take out the Wave (3) high before the upside momentum begins to subside and a corrective phase begins. If you find this analysis useful, make sure to press the “Like” button and comment.
Long
by ForexTrainingGroup
My twist on using the DMI indicatorWe have been talking for months now about the US Dollar going higher and with another strong month for jobs growth last week fundamental data and the technical view remain aligned. We thought that we would take a look at the USD/JPY chart this morning, which has recently broken above the 20-year resistance line and looks well placed for further gains to the 125.86 2015 peak. We are going to discuss why we think that this will break for a move to the 78.6% retracement (of the move down from 2002 to the 2012 low) at 132.33. Firstly we note price itself, the strength of the move prior to breaking the 20-year resistance line – the market rallied almost 10 big figures last month and secondly we have what I like to refer to as a ‘confirmed BUY signal’ on the DMI indicator (Directional Movement Index). These occur when the blue line breaks above previous blue peaks (the +DI line) and the previous sell peaks of the indicator (the -DI line) – see chart. Ideally ADX is also above 25. As a side note, I only use it when it gives these ‘confirmed’ signals. What Is the Directional Movement Index (DMI)? The directional movement index (DMI) is an indicator developed by J. Welles Wilder that identifies in which direction the price of an asset is moving. The indicator does this by comparing prior highs and lows and drawing two lines: Positive and negative directional movement form the backbone of the Directional Movement System. The Plus Directional Indicator (+DI) and Minus Directional Indicator (-DI) are derived from smoothed averages of these differences and measure trend direction over time. These two indicators are often collectively referred to as the Directional Movement Indicator (DMI). The Average Directional Index (ADX) is in turn derived from the smoothed averages of the difference between +DI and -DI; it measures the strength of the trend (regardless of direction) over time. Using these three indicators together, chartists can determine both the direction and strength of the trend. When +DI is above -DI, there is more upward pressure than downward pressure in the price. Conversely, if -DI is above +DI, then there is more downward pressure on the price. This indicator may help traders assess the trend direction. Crossovers between the lines are also sometimes used as trade signals to buy or sell. KEY TAKEAWAYS • The directional movement index (DMI) is a technical indicator that measures both the strength and direction of a price movement and is intended to reduce false signals. • The DMI utilizes two standard indicators, one negative (-DI) and one positive (+DI), in conjunction with a third, the average directional index (ADX), which is non-directional but shows momentum. • The larger the spread between the two primary lines, the stronger the price trend. If +DI is way above -DI the price trend is strongly up. If -DI is way above +DI then the price trend is strongly down. • ADX measures the strength of the trend, either up or down; a reading above 25 indicates a strong trend. • I find this works better when using the ‘confirmed buy or sell’ and this only occurs when the +DI or -VE breaks above its previous peaks. Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
Long
by The_STA
GBPJPY Ready For Big Moves!The GBPJPY broke out of long-term consolidation with a big bullish candle on March 22nd. Following really large candles, we tend to sharp reversals but in this case price continued to move higher for a few days. On March 28th price pulled back and moved towards the consolidation resistance turned support but didn’t quite make it that far. Support was found just above that level and we are starting to see bullish momentum once again. To confirm this as just being a pullback, we need to see a break and close above the March 28th high at 164.65. This will also confirm a bullish trend continuation and price has plenty of room to form a long-term trend providing us with compounding opportunities. If you like enjoyed this post, make sure to like, and follow for more quality content! If you have any questions or comments, comment below. We reply to every comment! See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
Long
by Sublime_Trading
S&P 500 Still Making Good ProgressThe S&P 500 made good progress in March, but the buyers fell off slightly by the end of the month, giving the sellers room to pull price down. Although the end of March and the start of April experienced a decline, this is just a pullback for now, and we can anticipate a continuation to the upside. Friday’s candle closed as a reversal candle just above the 200 simple moving average support zone. As we enter a new week, we want to see a bounce from support with some bullish candles. Further moves to the upside should follow a break and close above the March 29th high. Then we want to see a move above the next resistance level, which is the all-time high at $4818. If you like enjoyed this post, make sure to like, and follow for more quality content! If you have any questions or comments, comment below. We reply to every comment! See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
TVC:SPX
by Sublime_Trading
AAVE trend follow long- Price broke above weekly zone and broke out thru long term downtrend line. Forming Elliot wave sequence, currently on move 4 out of 5 indicating another potential push to the upside to come. - Price formed consolidation flag after breakout, retraced to the 50% fib level and is now seeing higher lows being formed. Price retested s/r 38% fib level zone on 1h chart and held above moving averages. Ended with a high volume, bullish hammer showing big players stepping back in on the dip. Stop loss: Placed below previous low of consolidation and 50% fib level Take profit: At conflucence of short term and long term fib levels
Long
by CMSTrading
1
The Pound Strengthens Over The Yen!The GBPJPY has not been successful at breaking and remaining above the major level of resistance at 156.60 since June 2016, which formed the high of an area of consolidation. Price really started to attack this level from October 2021 for a number of months, but has now cleared this level by around 700 pips. The candle for March is currently looking strong, and with only a few days of the month left to go, we may see a close outside of the consolidation zone. Price now has a lot of clear space to form a trend before the next major level of resistance at 195.88, which is the high of June 2015. See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
Long
by Sublime_Trading
S&P Recovery - 10% So FarThe S&P 500 continues to recover from the recent declines that started at the beginning of the year. From the low in February, price has climbed up 10% so far. A few weeks ago price moved back above the 50 simple moving average, which turned from resistance to support. The market looks a lot different than it did while it was falling during January and February, when everyone was calling for a market crash. This did not unfold and instead, we are seeing a recovery taking place. To be on the safe side, before we confirm a trend continuation, we need to see price break and close above the all-time high from January 3rd 2022 at $4818. Patience is needed for now. See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
TVC:SPXLong
by Sublime_Trading
Getting close to triggering longs over the 40-day high in BTC After years of Central Bank "price stability" with a special focus on keeping the equity bull alive, #Trendfollowing strategies were finally unleashed following Covid making up for lost time, and are on track to post yet another stellar year. Of course past performance is never any indication of future returns, but we can think of at least one decent source to support this opinion - maybe check out our Twitter feed. Demonstrably, trend strategies have also performed well in the #DigitalAssets over the past few years. We are currently armed and set to pull the trigger to initiate new longs if the 40-day high is taken out to the upside (call it 45.9k). For what it's worth, the last time our spidey senses were tingling like this, BTC would have been considered a breakout over $4,100. So, there's that: With an ATR around $2k right now, consider entering a buy stop to go long at $46k, risking to $40k just in case this is triggered and does not work out. If you do not know how much you are going to risk on a trade before you've even taken it, you shouldn't be speculating and have an incomplete trading plan. That said, this is not investment advice and is for informational purposes only. Trading is risky and not suitable for all. You must do your own research and please consult with your own financial advisors.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by 40in20out
Copper Makes Record High For March!Copper created record highs this month, where it peaked at a high of $5.0395, breaching the previous all-time high from February 2011 once again. The previous all-time high is proving to be a strong level of resistance as price is unable to remain above this level for lengthy periods of time. There is now a long wick above this month’s candle as the sellers have pushed price down, but the candle's body remains bullish. $4.6495 is now a support level and should price decline further, it could hold price up, giving price enough momentum to make a new all-time high. See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime
COMEX:HG1!Long
by Sublime_Trading
Tesla Up 25%+ This MonthTesla was making record highs of $1243 in November 2021, up 1780% from the year before. Price then went on a decline but soon found support. The $1000 round number was penetrated but price found support at the 50 simple moving average in January this year and has only just bounced off from support this month. March is looking strong for Tesla with price already up over 25% and trading back above $1000. If this momentum is sustained, we could see new all-time highs created over the next few weeks/months. This is quite an expensive stock to invest in, so if you don't have the capital to place low-risk positions in this asset, we cover many other cheaper assets in our analysis. See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by Sublime_Trading
Confirming Trends with the Lower Time Frames NZD/USD ExampleHey Guys! As you guys know, for the past 2 weeks I've been taking multiple trades on the Nzd/usd, both short and long. First I was taking short trades with the daily short bias, then long trades along with the bias change into long on the daily chart. In this video, I explain how I knew the daily bias has changed into long thus aborted my initial short entry and began entering long trades. These lower confirmation tactics play a huge role in my trading, and even if you don't trade with price action, it can be a great addition to your current strategy. I hope it helps! Have a great day guys! Ken
Education
by TradingForexPriceAction
1
Here is why I suggest you should use the SUPER TREND!I see the weekend is here. A new week is about to begin, and it's time to get organised, reflect on your progress so far, and learn something new to help you achieve your trading goals., and boost your profitability. Let's be honest, I am someone who normally likes to follow the trends. A lot of the trend following indicators I've encountered along the way in my professional and career growth haven't made sense to me. Moving averages, Average Directional Index, Moving Average Convergence-Divergence, Parabolic SAR etc. I always had a lot concerns with the indicators being able to swiftly follow the price movement, as well as identify a clear reversal of the underlying trend. However, I came through to find this SUPER 'super trend' indicator some while ago, and by testing this and adding it to my intraday trading strategy, I finally see that I could rely on one single indicator to help me identify the trend quickly and more efficiently (never 100% of course it is still not a holy grail!) but the results were good enough for me to write down this post to you guys. What is the Super trend indicator? 'Super trend,' as the name implies, is a trend-following indicator, similar to moving averages and MACD. It is plotted on prices, and the position of the prices reflects the current trend. When we build the Super trend indicator, the default settings are 10 for the ATR and 3 for the multiplier. The average true range (ATR) is important in 'Super trend' since it is used to determine the indicator's value and it indicates the degree of price volatility, which is one reason why this indicator beats Moving averages, which disregards price volatility. Super trend Indicator Formula The super trend indicator computation is illustrated below– Up = (high + low / 2 + multiplier x ATR) Down = (high + low) / 2 – multiplier x ATR Average True Range = / 14 The number 14 represents a period in this context. As a result, the ATR is computed by multiplying the previous ATR by 13. Add the most recent TR and divide it by the time. As a result, ATR is an essential component of the supertrend technical analysis indicator. How to Use Super trend Indicator to Identify Buy and Sell Signals? Super Trend, as a trending indicator, performs well in trending markets (both uptrends and downtrends). When the indicator flips over the closing price, it is easy to identify a buy-sell indication. When the Super Trend closes below the price and the colour turns to green, a buy signal is issued. A sell signal is generated when the Super Trend closes above the price and the colour of the Super Trend changes to red. There is no such thing as a 100 percent accurate technical indicator, and Super Trend is no exception. It also produces erroneous signals in sideways markets, however it produces fewer false signals than other indicators. As a result, you may use Super Trend in conjunction with other indicators to provide more accurate trade signals. Follow my daily analysis posts on my account to check out how to combine it with other momentum indicators as well as use it for multi-time frame analysis!
Education
by MohannadYakout
Palladium Fakeout!There is plenty of volatility in the markets due to current events happening around the world right now and Palladium is an example of this. An all-time high was created in May 2021 at $3017. Price then went into consolidation using the weekly 200 simple moving average as support. From there, we have seen a gradual increase in price, and by the end of February, price was just $7 shy of the all-time high. The second week of March saw the breakout we were all anticipating, but this was short-lived as price has now retreated back into the consolidation zone. This is the very reason why we wait for confirmation following a breakout before jumping into positions after a long period of consolidation. This is something we make our members aware of. Many traders and investors would have taken a position in Palladium as soon as it broke out but we understand that when price consolidates for a lengthy period of time, it could form a fake breakout. We will continue to stand aside until our confirmation is met and preserve our capital in the meantime so that we can use it for high-probability opportunities. See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
TVC:PALLADIUM
by Sublime_Trading
Gold Attempts Record High!Gold had an attempt at the August 2020 all-time high at $2075 this month but has come short of even breaking through this level. Price was only $5 away from having a shot at creating a new record high, but the sellers came in strong to ensure that never happened. What does this mean for price now? Since there has been some short-term weakness, we want to identify areas of support that price may come to. This support could act as a springboard that helps to push price back towards this all-time high resistance level. Price is now trading below the $2000 round number, so the next level of support based on this timeframe is the previous all-time high from September 2011 at $1920. There is another level just before that, which is also classified as a strong level of support, and that is last year’s high at $1959. We will have to keep an eye on Gold because if there is a breakout, we could be in store for a long-term trend lasting several years. See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
TVC:GOLD
by Sublime_Trading
Gold Bullish Momentum!Last week I posted on Gold and highlighted the fake breakout of the September 2011 high at $1920. Despite February’s candle forming a fake breakout of this level, we see strong moves above it again. Price could end up closing below $1920 by the end of the month, but the buyers do appear strong for now. When Gold trends, it usually lasts for months and years. Before a trend can begin, however, we need to see a breakout of the consolidation high, which is also the all-time high at $2075, and that was formed in August 2020. With a strong bullish candle in February and another one so far for March, the momentum could be building up to create new all-time highs. Gold is definitely on our watchlist. See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
TVC:GOLD
by Sublime_Trading
1
FTSE Down But At SupportLast week we witnessed a 6.78% decline in the FTSE 100 and just a few hours into this week, price has already declined 2.81%. The major support of the daily 200 simple moving average failed to hold price up last week so we must look at further levels of support. Since May 2021 a low was formed at 6823 and has held strong ever since. There was an attempt to break this level in July and September 2021, but they both failed. Price has hit this level this morning and appears to be holding for now. If there is strong buying at this point, it should be enough to push price back to the upside, but for now, we just need to stand aside and see which direction price heads next. See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
TVC:UKX
by Sublime_Trading
Gold Verging On A Breakout!Gold has made good progress this month, forming a strong bullish candle despite being in an area of consolidation. Price ultimately needs to break above the August 2020 all-time high at $2075, but there is another resistance level in the way at $1920 from the September 2011 high. This month’s candle pushed above this level, but the sellers have pushed price back below. If February closes below $1920, then this will be a confirmed fake breakout, and as we have one trading day to go for February, this seems likely. Gold is an asset that requires plenty of patience, and those holding Gold long-term would not have seen any progress in their investment since September 2011. The main thing is that when Gold trends, it usually lasts several years and produces good profit over time. This increases if you are compounding along the way, something which we ensure our members are doing to maximise profit. We will watch Gold closely and take advantage of any trends should price break above the all-time high. See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
TVC:GOLD
by Sublime_Trading
US Market Bullish Continuation?The S&P continued to display plenty of volatility last week, where we saw a strong move to the downside, breaking through significant levels of support. Price did appear as though it was going to continue its descent, but the buyers were able to reverse the direction of the move, ending Friday with a big bullish candle on the daily timeframe. The 50 simple moving average, which held as support over the past few weeks, couldn’t take the weight of price and this support level failed. However, looking at the reversal candle last week, which closed with a bullish body, we may well see a push back above the 50 simple moving average. As there is a lot of volatility in the markets, it is hard to be sure if the bull trend will resume or whether the bears will take over, so we will continue to stand aside and preserve our capital. See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
TVC:SPX
by Sublime_Trading
GBPJPY Breakout?The GBPYJPY has seen some strong trends in the past and as a result of the 36% decline in 2015-2016, price has been in a long-term period of consolidation. This consolidation range is between 156.60 from the high of February 2018 and 124.78 which is the low of October 2016. Price has pretty much remained in this range. The reason this forex pair has come to our attention is because price is retesting resistance. When price tests support or resistance, there is always a chance of a breakout so we want to remain ready just in case. Price has been testing this resistance level since October 2021 so the buyers appear to be persistent in getting price to break out. Even if we have a breakout, we need to wait for confirmation before considering an entry. Price first needs to breakout, pullback and then break out again. Until that happens, we will stand aside from taking an enter. See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
by Sublime_Trading