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Trendanalyisis

SPX Short and Long Term Trend Analysis 2023Summary: Short term Bull Trap and Long Term Bear Trap. Prices may move up or sideways for about a week but over the next month prices will move down to a previous support level. Investors are reallocating their profiles and they will also be digesting negative earnings report outlooks that consider the employment costs from higher interest rates in 2023. Unemployment indicators will be key over the next quarter much like CPI was last quarter. My time horizon for retirement is 30+ years so I will be Dollar Cost Averaging into cheap beaten down stocks like tech and auto, selling covered calls on overpriced stocks I own like energy, and hedging recession capitulation risk with puts. Best Case: Recession canceled, SPX breaks it's long term 2022 downward trend similar to the DOW. Earnings and unemployment numbers remain decent in 2023. SPX breaks through the double top pattern at the January 2022 highs and makes new highs. Positive Case: A bullish triangle pattern forms next week and the SPX continues up to form a long term double top pattern with the January 2022 highs and then trades sideways in 2023. Max SPX $4800. Negative case: Earnings reports from major institutions and unemployment show how bad the economy is getting and the market sells off to continue SPX's downward trend. SPX forms another shoulder to an inverse head and shoulders reversal pattern seen on the Monthly Chart and trades sideways in 2023. Min SPX $3700. Worst Case: The unemployment data and earnings reports trigger a financial crisis like 2008. The much anticipated capitulation Wall street is waiting for associated with 8 out of 10 recessions causes SPX to drop below March of 2020 lows. Short Term Technical Indicators (Daily): 1. Volume profile shows more people willing to buy SPX at lower price levels then higher ones. 2. SPX is at the top of it's long term price channel trend from 2022. 3. SMA's indicate negative price movement. 4. MACD indicates positive price movement. 5. RSI indicates the SPX is overbought. Long Term Technical Indicators (Monthly): 1. Volume profile shows more people willing to buy SPX at lower price levels then higher ones. 2. SPX is well above it's true mean logarithmic growth rate for a recession. 3. SMA's indicate negative price movement. 4. MACD indicates a return to normal bullish levels but is still quite positive from past recessions. 5. RSI indicates the SPX is oversold. Fundamentals: 1. Consumer and investor sentiment has turned positive. 2. Inflation data is telling us that inflation has peaked and the Federal Reserve may pivot soon. 3. Earnings reports from large financial institutions who are all predicting recession in 2023 come out this week (Wildcard). 4. Unemployment may start to increase due to rising employment costs.
SP:SPXLong
by UnknownUnicorn30488523
1
Smells Like HopiumI don't post much; mostly I just watch and observe. But at this point in time, I cannot help my self. I'm seeing way too much joy and optimism in markets over the last few weeks. The smell of strong hopium in the air is pungent, especially in crypto. Lots of traders I follow are posting 10-12x posts a day talking about bullish action...lots of screams of "333% PUSH!", "555% EASY!", etc. etc. You know who you are. Time for some real talk--crypto autumn is over and winter is just about to begin. Let's do the math...using "King Crypto" BTC as a guide. Here we see the 2W chart and the story is clear. I like the 2W time frame as a starting point because if levels out all the BS and allows for clear headedness in lieu of what is obvious hysteria. What are we seeing? 1. Heikin Ashi still points almostly perfectly bearish since the Nov 21 double top. This is a negative. 2. Current price action and all candles are below every channel there is, including KC and Bollinger Band Std Dev 1 and 2. This is super very negative. 3. 2W 50 per EMA is about to death cross 100 per EMA. That's EMA, folks...not simple MA. It will be very hard to see how the next 3 months won't have this cross, but we will wait and see. This is negative. 4. Stochastic has tried 4 times since Nov 21 to break favorable and has failed every time. Short term momentum still under longer term momentum, at the very bottom of the range. This is negative. 5. MACD, while approaching zero on the bars, is persistently below long-term trendlines. This is a negative. 6. On Balance Volume (the ultimate tell) is not even close to breaking favorable. This is negative. Technical analysis, sorting out for all the short-term noise, is all pointing in one direction...downward. From a macro-market analysis, we are just beginning to see the shakeout of the crypto hysteria. Some points: A. Regulation, the "all clear sign" for big money, seems stuck in the muck across numerous geos, because... B. Crypto firms continue to go bust at a rapid pace. Hard to know where to regulate when firms are dying every month. FTX is now "old news", but as yet nobody knows how far the contagion goes. BlockFi this week, likely another before the end of the month. And the "Binance Rescue Fund" (outside of a tweet) is a pipe dream. C. The idea of BTC (or any crypto) as an inflation hedge or safe haven is fully disproven. D. Crypto is now, minus higher variance, inexplicably tied to Tech. Yet even the media hyped, MOMO pushed, fake-out rally in QQQ didn't get to BTC over the last month. E. Recession looms, corporate multiples are still insane, leverage is still too high (in markets, and especially crypto), and fundamental economic dynamics globally are not favorable. All risk assets are still very far away from bottoms, crypto especially. Smoke the hopium all you want, but don't hit that "Buy" button. Long way to go before we are out of the woods. "Roll it up, light it up, smoke it up...Inhale, exhale" - Cyprus Hill.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Imdmagic1
2
The Value of PriceA basic concept in price action trading is that when it comes to the analysis process of price, some candles are more valuable than others. By "more valuable" I mean, some candlesticks have more weight in the analysis process of price than others. Before I explain which candles have more inherent value, let me explain a bit of price action philosophy. When it comes to an asset's price, or even the market in general the price action trader believes that it is a living breathing entity. Just the same as you and I, the market's movements differ from day to day and past behavior does not predict future behavior. That said, just like you and I, the future behavior of an living breathing entity is much easier to predict if based on the analysis of recent behavior. So in other words, if I were to predict your next move, it is much easier and practical to base that analysis on your recent behavior, rather than your behavior 2 years in the past. So this core philosophy pretty much dictates how you can set values to price. Simply put," Current price is more valuable than past price in terms of the analysis process". So if you were to predict the future direction of the price of an asset, it is wise to analyze current price rather than past price; simply due to the fact that past price has less weight in terms of the analysis process than current price.So for example, if your analysis of price for the last 3 months was stating that price will rise in the future; however this week's price is stating that price will fall, the price action trader will not hesitate to sell as dictated by their analysis of current price. So the next time you find yourself confused about the future direction of price due to conflicting signals. Ask yourself, " what is current price telling me about the future direction of price?" and let past price stay where it belong, "in the past." That's it! Have a great day! Ken
Education
by TradingForexPriceAction
1
EUR/USD: patiently waiting to pull the "BUY" trigger. No rush!Firstly, by zooming out and monitoring higher-timeframe graphs, we may observe that the sentiment of the EUR/USD market is clearly bullish as the price has managed to push above the level of the previous HTF Higher High point. Last week, we expected for some correctional moves to kick in and drive the price down in the short run before further bullish resume. However, after consolidating for a while, the USD fundamentals were able to push the price higher and form a new HH point. The price moves in cycles. In other words, step-by-step and not like a straight rocket. And thus, we are awaiting for the price to experience a short-term drop and reach the important area of support plotted on the graph that lines up with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level before we can execute long positions and ride the trend to the upside.
by Investroy
8
NiftyBank trend for tomorrowToday a V- shaped recovery has been seen in Niftybank from previous day's low of 41900 today it stand near 42500approx and it moves beyond that and went upto 42700. If this upward trend sustains above 42700 for tomorrow then it will hit 43000++ and will show strong momentum. But it has reversed somewhat today which shows a clear indication of inverted head and shoulder pattern on a 15 min timeframe which says if it crosses below 42300 and sustains below that then niftybank will hit 41900 and fall below that which will ruin everyone's portfolio to some extent. So, basically what I am trying to say is that opening and the market momentum after half day will clear our confusion. Moreover DIIs buying in cash market was more than the sellings by FIIs today.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by TripuraInvescorp
2
COST - Who doesn't love costco?Costco is probably one of my favorite places to shop and I think the stock price over the last 14 years has proven that to be the case for a lot of people. The main issue I have with buying this stock is valuation and growth of the company. I don't see how they will be able to grow fast enough to support a 35+ PE ratio. Taking the fib from the 08 lows to the 2022 highs, we get targets around 395, 327, and 258 for the 38.2, 50.0, and 61.8 retracement levels. If you think about it, 258 from a valuation perspective only starts to make the stock a reasonable price at about a PE of 20 assuming 13.23 EPS. It looks beautiful from a long term trend perspective and I think it has many more years to grow, but I wouldn't touch it unless it was 308 or less purely from a fundamental perspective. Might look to short this one this year. This is not financial advice. Good Luck!
NASDAQ:COSTShort
by ChrisPtaco_32
1
(USDCAD) LOOK FOR BOUNCE FROM SUPPLY ZONE 1.35000!!Hope everyone's enjoyed a break, I took a lot longer then expected with moving in the process so I will have a mic set up very soon for more chart insight from myself! Anyway I thought id just share my view here on USDCAD and then cover some more pairs on request... The start of January is always quiet but as price picks up ill be watching this pair around the key area of 1.35200 for a possible bounce to continue in the current 4hr zone or a possible break of sideways structure for a move lower.
Long
by jamison_fx
1
BTC Bulls Next Target is $17600-$18200 After This HappensBitcoin Bulls are ready for some good green Holidays in December, The current pullback after hitting $16800 could go further down to a more stronger support range at $15800 - $15450 range. This range will provide buyers with sufficient buy capital to attempt the $16800 resistance of which I so see them clearing through it to hit $17300, but here I see market makers targeting Sellers(Shorters) stop-hunt around the $17600 all the way up to $18300. I'm staying open minded on the support and a possible worst case scenario triple bottom could arise because for now the current Dojis on weekly support shows anything can still happen, What are the chances that the bulls will make it to above $18k in Dec? I say we have over 75% chances of bulls making it to $18k and over 65% above $20k The current pullback must not go below last low of $15433 range to be more open minded, I do see that from December 2022to January 2023 will give buyers the opportunity with the current accumulation on going to achieve a little more recovery to the upside before a major more dump coming from Mid 2023 to 2024.
by MachiavelliTrader
SPX: Be AWARE of these KEY POINTS!• In the 1h chart, the key resistance is the green line at 3,974, as this area was a multiple resistance for the index last week; • Only if the index breaks its key resistance it could resume the bull trend and seek higher levels again, like the 4,083; • On the other hand, the main support is the red area seen in the daily chart, and as long as the index stays above this area, it won’t reverse the mid-term bull trend; • The mid-term trend is bullish because the index is doing higher highs/lows and it is trading above the 21 ema since October; • The 3,911 seems to be the key support level, as only if the index loses this line it would do a technical reversal sign; • For now, it seems the index is in a “no man’s land”, and we must wait for a proper reaction. I’ll keep you updated on this. Remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses!
SP:SPX
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
SPX: Bullish reaction above a support. What to expect next?• The index is trying to react this morning, and the timing of this reaction is quite good, after all, it is just above our support area, which I mentioned yesterday; • What’s more, yesterday’s candlestick indicates stabilization, while the 21 ema was working as a resistance; • Now, the index is just moving according to our previous analysis, and if it closes above the 21 ema again, it might bounce to the 4,083; • The 4,083 is a key resistance and it was a gap area; • Only if the index loses the 3,911 I see this bull trend getting weaker. So far, nothing new or surprising is going on. Another update tomorrow. Remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses!
SP:SPX
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
3