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GBPJPY) 4H) tame frame ) analysis)Speculation about when the Bank of Japan will end its negative interest rate policy (NIRP) has been rife, but seen as more likely to come in January than December. Price action in JPY-related FX option markets isn't offering many clues, with increased demand and high volatility risk premiums for both meetings, and also for a speech by BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda on Dec. 25. Deutsche shares sentiment with other banks who expect the Bank of Japan to maintain its current monetary policy framework in December, while hinting at an end to the NIRP at its Jan. 23 meeting. Deutsche attribute a 60% probability to hints being made. In terms of fundamentals, Deutsche believe that ending NIRP in January is appropriate because the forecast in the outlook report will change since the data already imply a virtuous circle in wages and prices. In terms of practicalities, it is because financial institutions would have sufficient time to prepare for it. Deutsche suspect that the BoJ will hint at the upcoming policy revision by including some key points in its statement; that it will assess and confirm the virtual circle between wages and prices by the January meeting, with the results to be published at the same time as the outlook report; and that, as a result of this assessment, the policy revision will be judged appropriate and it will continue to emphasize an accommodative policy stance and stable JGB markets even after the revision. Overnight expiry FXO implied volatility
Short
by SMC-Trading-Point
2
GBPUSD H4 / Looking for a LONG Entry 📈Hello Traders! This is my perspective related to GBPUSD H4. I expect a movement until 1.25500, at that price we have OB and the liquidity level to be closed. I will look for a LONG entry in case of confirmation. ✅ Traders, if you liked my idea or if you have a different vision related to this trade, write in the comments. I will be glad to see your perspective. ______________________________________________________________________________ Follow, like, and comment to see my content: www.tradingview.com
by GoodTradeST
2
"Bitcoin Analysis Across Multiple Time Frames(First, let's have a look at the shorter time frame) Bitcoin (BTC) is currently operating within a bullish channel and has recently experienced a bounce off the support provided by the ascending trendline and the 100-day moving average (MA). The cryptocurrency is presently trading within the Ichimoku cloud, accompanied by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) signaling a bearish divergence move. For a bullish trend confirmation, it is imperative for the bulls to regain momentum and achieve a decisive breakout above the horizontal resistance level, approximately around 38,000. Conversely, a sustained breakdown of the ascending trendline would suggest the potential for a short-term correction. In simpler terms, Bitcoin is following an upward trend, finding support at the ascending trendline and the 100-day moving average. However, caution is advised as the RSI is signaling a potential bearish divergence. A clear breakthrough above the resistance at 38,000 would be a positive indicator for a bullish continuation, while a sustained break below the ascending trendline could indicate a short-term correction in the market. (Daily time frame) On the daily time frame, Bitcoin (BTC) has exhibited a volatile pattern, characterized by both a breakout and subsequent breakdown. This fluctuation weakens the established support, emphasizing the importance of a conclusive breach of the 38,000 resistance level and the subsequent closure of a daily candle above it to solidify the support. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently in the overbought range, suggesting an elevated market condition that may require a period of relief. This, coupled with the choppy price movement, raises the likelihood of a correction in the market. Key support levels to monitor are approximately 30,000 and 33,500, serving as local support. Until a decisive breakthrough and daily candle closure above the 38,000 resistance level occurs, caution is advised, as there is a heightened probability of a market correction, especially given the overbought condition signaled by the RSI. (WEEKLY TIME FRAME) Over the past weeks, Bitcoin has experienced a surge in price, entering a phase of notable price discovery and achieving new yearly highs by surpassing the previous consolidation range. Historical research reveals a consistent pattern of Bitcoin accumulation in past market cycles. The initial wave typically occurs shortly after Bitcoin hits its All-Time High in a market cycle, with prices swiftly moving away from that peak. The second wave transpires during the Bear Market's trough, as the price floor for that cycle is established and tested. The third wave unfolds post-cycle bottom, with prices showing an upward trend in anticipation of the Bitcoin halving. It's crucial to acknowledge that the previous market cycle experienced a significant correction following the third wave of accumulation, leading to a downward price trend until March of the halving year. Presently, Bitcoin has attained a High-Volume Node on the Volume Profile, indicating a zone with substantial potential supply or selling pressure. This observation underscores the importance of closely monitoring market dynamics and potential corrections in the ongoing bullish trend. Bitcoin has successfully converted prior resistance into a support level, leading to a period of consolidation as traders anticipate a potential breakout. Conversely, if Bitcoin is unable to solidify the former resistance as support, it may experience a decisive breakdown, reverting back to a previous trading range. After analyzing Bitcoin across various time frames, we have concluded that there is a significant likelihood of BTC ranging between approximately 33,500 and 30,000. However, in the long term, the outlook remains bullish. A similar pattern was observed in the last bull run, where a final substantial drop occurred, eliminating inexperienced and small traders, before the onset of the bullish market. Therefore, it is advisable to stay vigilant, adapt to Bitcoin's movements, and continue learning in order to navigate potential market fluctuations. This chart is likely to help you make better trade decisions if it does consider upvoting it. I would also love to know your charts and views in the comment section. Thank you
by CRYPTOMOJO_TA
"Stop Loss Essentials: Preventing Losses in Uptrends"Hi guys, This is CryptoMojo, One of the most active trading view authors and fastest-growing communities. Consider following me for the latest updates and Long /Short calls on almost every exchange. I post short mid and long-term trade setups too. Let’s get to the chart! I have tried my best to bring the best possible outcome to this chart, Do not consider financial advice. Common Reasons Why Traders Lose Money Even in an Uptrend #Not Setting Stop-Loss: #Not Conducting Technical Analysis: #Going against the Trends: #Following the Herd: #Being Impatient: #Not doing Homework or Research: #Averaging on Losing Position: Buy low sell high' is the motto. As simple as it sounds, why do most people lose money trading or investing? There are four major mistakes that most beginners make: 1. Excessive Confidence This stems from the idea that people think of themselves as special. They think they can 'crack the code' in the stock market that 99.9% of people fail to, and eventually make a living trading and investing. However, taking into consideration the fact that more people lose money in the market, this form of wishful thinking is the same mentality as going into a casino feeling lucky. You may actually get lucky and win big the first few times, but in the end, the house always wins. 2. Distorted Judgements While simplicity is key, the approach most beginners make in trading and investing are too simplistic, to the extend where it's hard to even call it a trading logic or reason to invest. They spot a few reoccurring patterns within the market, and this is almost as if they discovered fire. It doesn't take long to realize that the "pattern" they spotted was never based on any solid reasoning, or worse, wasn't even a pattern at all in the first place. 3. Herding Behavior The fundamentals of this is also deeply rooted in a gambling mindset. Beginners are attracted to the idea of a single trade or investment that will make them a millionaire. However, they fail to realize that there is no such thing. Trading and investing is nothing like winning the lottery. It's about making consistent profits that compound throughout time. While people should definitely look for assets that have high liquidity and some volatility , the get-rich-quick mentality drags irrational beginners into overextended/overbought stocks that eventually drop drastically. 4. Risk Aversion Risk aversion is a psychological trait embedded within all of mankind's DNA. Winning is fun, but we can't tolerate losing. We tend to avoid risk, even when the potential reward is worth pursuing. As such, many beginners take extremely small amounts of profits, in fear that they might close their position at a loss, trading with a terrible risk reward ratio. In the long run, their willingness to not take any risks leads to losses. Depending on the price action, they also go through seven phases of psychological stages: - Anxiety - Interest - Confidence - Greed - Doubt - Concern - Regret ------------------------------------------------------------------ Lack of Discipline An intraday trader must stick to a proper plan. A full-fledged intraday plan includes profit targets, factors to consider, methods to put a stop loss, and ways to select the right trading hours. The trading plan provides a comprehensive overview of how trading should be executed. Also, you can keep a record of trades executed during the day with the performance analysis of each stock at the end of the day. Such records help you identify the weak areas in your trading strategy and correct them. It is very important to be disciplined as a trader, the proper discipline will help you minimize the losses and maintain your capital. Not Setting Proper Trading Limits In intraday trading, the success lies in managing the risk. You should pre-define a stop loss and profit target when entering intraday trading. This strategy itself is an important part of trading discipline and this is where most people fail. For instance, if you incur a loss in the first hour itself, you should shut down the trading terminal for the rest of the day. You should also have an overall capital loss limit in place, it will safeguard you against trading losses. Compensating for a Rapid Loss This is one of the common mistakes in the trading community. When a trader incurs a loss, he/she either tries to average a position or overtrades excessively to recover the loss. This further leads to a greater loss and put them into more trouble. Losses are a part of intraday trading, instead of overtrading, it is wise to accept the loss, analyze the strategy and make improvements from the next day. Heavy Dependency on Tips Nowadays, there are ample of intraday tips flowing everywhere on the digital media. It is a common phenomenon for a trader to rely on these external tips, however, this needs to be avoided. The best way to learn intraday trading is by gradually learning how to read charts, understanding structures, and interpreting results on your own. Many traders refrain from taking these efforts and because of this, they end up on the losing side. The Beyond App by Nirmal Bang provides deeper insights into the market, the technical research offered by Nirmal Bang is spot on. You can use that research for reference, however, nothing can beat practical experience. Not Keeping Track of Current Affairs The external news, events, and tragedies do have an impact on the stock market. Hence, it is important for an intraday trader to keep a track of the Indian as well as global markets. Even the performance of global markets has an impact on the movement of Indian markets. Make your trade after the news or event has been announced, do not try to speculate the market based on the news. There are even instances when traders do not have any sound trading strategy, they just make decisions based on gut feelings or emotions. One needs to remember that intraday trading in itself is a skill, it is not a gamble, it takes time to develop proficiency, you cannot expect rapid results. The above are some of the major reasons why intraday traders lose money, ensure that you are disciplined enough, stick to a proper strategy, analyze your strategy at regular intervals, and things will fall in place. we will discuss 3 classic trading strategies and stop placement rules. 1) The first trading strategy is a trend line strategy. The technique implies buying/selling the touch of strong trend lines, expecting a strong bullish/bearish reaction from that. If you are buying a trend line, you should identify the previous low. Your stop loss should lie strictly below that. If you are selling a trend line, you should identify the previous high. Your stop loss should lie strictly above that. 2) The second trading strategy is a breakout trading strategy. The technique implies buying/selling the breakout of a structure, expecting a further bullish/bearish continuation. If you are buying a breakout of resistance, you should identify the previous low. Your stop loss should lie strictly below that. If you are selling a breakout of support, you should identify the previous high. Your stop loss should lie strictly above that. 3) The third trading strategy is a range trading strategy. The technique implies buying/selling the boundaries of horizontal ranges, expecting a bullish/bearish reaction from them. If you are buying the support of the range, your stop loss should strictly lie below the lowest point of support. If you are selling the resistance of the range, your stop loss should strictly lie above the highest point of resistance. As you can see, these stop-placement techniques are very simple. Following them, you will avoid a lot of stop hunts and manipulations. What Is a Stop-Loss Order? A stop-loss order is an order placed with a broker to buy or sell a specific stock once the stock reaches a certain price. A stop-loss is designed to limit an investor's loss on a security position. For example, setting a stop-loss order for 10% below the price at which you bought the stock will limit your loss to 10%. Suppose you just purchased Microsoft (MSFT) at $20 per share. Right after buying the stock, you enter a stop-loss order for $18. If the stock falls below $18, your shares will then be sold at the prevailing market price. Stop-limit orders are similar to stop-loss orders. However, as their name states, there is a limit on the price at which they will execute. There are then two prices specified in a stop-limit order: the stop price, which will convert the order to a sell order, and the limit price. Instead of the order becoming a market order to sell, the sell order becomes a limit order that will only execute at the limit price (or better). Advantages of the Stop-Loss Order The most important benefit of a stop-loss order is that it costs nothing to implement. Your regular commission is charged only once the stop-loss price has been reached and the stock must be sold. 3 One way to think of a stop-loss order is as a free insurance policy. Additionally, when it comes to stop-loss orders, you don't have to monitor how a stock is performing daily. This convenience is especially handy when you are on vacation or in a situation that prevents you from watching your stocks for an extended period. 4 Stop-loss orders also help insulate your decision-making from emotional influences. People tend to "fall in love" with stocks. For example, they may maintain the false belief that if they give a stock another chance, it will come around. In actuality, this delay may only cause losses to mount. 5 No matter what type of investor you are, you should be able to easily identify why you own a stock. A value investor's criteria will be different from the criteria of a growth investor, which will be different from the criteria of an active trader. No matter what the strategy is, the strategy will only work if you stick to it. So, if you are a hardcore buy-and-hold investor, your stop-loss orders are next to useless. At the end of the day, if you are going to be a successful investor, you have to be confident in your strategy. This means carrying through with your plan. The advantage of stop-loss orders is that they can help you stay on track and prevent your judgment from getting clouded with emotion. 2 Finally, it's important to realize that stop-loss orders do not guarantee you'll make money in the stock market; you still have to make intelligent investment decisions. If you don't, you'll lose just as much money as you would without a stop-loss (only at a much slower rate.) Types of Stop-Loss orders Fixed Stop Loss The fixed stop is a stop loss order triggered when a particular pre-determined price is hit. Fixed stops can also be timed-based and are most commonly used as soon as the trade is placed. Time-bound fixed stops are useful for investors who want to provide the position with a pre-set amount of time to profit prior to moving on to the next trade. Only utilize time-based stops when positioned sized properly to permit major adverse swings in share price. Trailing Stop-Loss Order Trailing order caters to the capital gains protection of an investor, while simultaneously providing a hedge against any unexpected price downturns. It is set as a percentage of the total asset price, and the order to sell is triggered in case market prices fall below the stipulated level. However, in the case of a price rise, the trailing order adjusts automatically in tune with an overall increase in market valuation. Suppose, in a trailing stop-loss market, an order for execution is set if the price of a security falls below 10% of the market value. Assuming the purchase price is 100 an order to sell the security is executed automatically by an authorised broker if the price falls below 90. In case the share prices rise to 120, the trailing order stands at 10% of the current market price, which is 108. Hence, if prices consequently start falling after peaking at. 120, a stop-loss order will be executed at 108. It allows an individual to enjoy a capital gain of 8 (108 – 100) on his/her investment corpus. Stop-Loss Order Vs Market Order While a stop-loss order performs a sale of underlying securities provided the price falls below a prescribed limit, a market order is issued to a broker to conduct trade (both buying and selling) at the prevailing market price. Stop-loss orders are designed to reduce the risk factor, while market orders aim to increase liquidity in the stock market by eradicating the bid-ask spread difference. A market order is the most basic form of trade order placed in a stock market. Stop-Loss Order and Limit Order Limit orders execute a trade of stipulated securities if the price reaches a pre-set value. While a buy limit order facilitates the purchase of any securities if the price falls below the given limit, a sell limit order is executed if the price rises above the value. Limit orders are designed to maximise the profitability of an investment venture by maximising the bid-ask spread. It is in contrast to stop-loss orders, which are implemented only if the price is equal to the limit stated by investors, as a method of minimising losses in a bear market. If you like our content, please feel free to support our page with a like, comment & follow for future educational ideas and trading setups.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by CRYPTOMOJO_TA
Bullish and Bearish EURUSD OutlookBullish and Bearish EURUSD Outlook What we see we trade, as we are end of Sept 2023 last weekly of trade playbook for EURUSD. Monthly Playbook As we have witness 38.2% of Fibonacci scale multiple touches at the same time RSI 8 is crossing from top to RSI 13. (RSI 45.78) As we see we are bearish trend. To read the same after July candle inverted candle. ( & ) perfect text book example of inverted candle. Aug candle with upper and lower wick engulfing candle. As we are in month of Sept last week did touch 38.2% Fibonacci Scale but did not close below we are still one more week to get this monthly candle. Weekly Playbook As we have witness last week close as inverted hammer weekly ( ) Again we see inverted hammer is close below 38.2% of Fibonacci scale, ( )which mean we are having bearishness in market as well monthly candle is near to 61.8% clustering with 38.2% Fibonacci Scale. Daily Playbook There are is similarity checker ( ) as identify on 18th July with fractal formation and market becomes a bearish. Last couple of day getting rejected from bottom creating double bottom candles. With Fibonacci Scale last 2 candles. Thursday 21st Sept 2023 candle perfect text book example close 38.2% and Friday 22nd Sept candle is 50% which mostly likely to get failed mean as we see rejection from bottom will not carry out to bullishness. ( ) As market open we will update on the same link as real time any new trend.
by shoonya0000
BTCUSDT Short 15 / 5 Minutes Scalping Levels (24 May 23)Based on last analysis shared we were able to meet Target 1,2 and 3 respectively, however T4 was only half way through. Which now has created a new strong Resistance zone near 27,450-27,500. Market is still range bound. Presently taking support (26,720 approx.) on Sunday's May 21st day's low and has created high of 27.495. Most of trading levels are still same and buying on dips will be better trading strategy for the day until we retest the high of 27,495. Until 26,500 is not broken I don't see Short selling as better option. What we saw in morning was a Pivot Pressure Trade. As soon as price was saw rejection form today's daily pivot of 27,170 it showed sharp fall of 1.88% ( 500 Points), however now price is moving within range and trying to give a uptrend move.
by masterztrade
BTCUSDT Historic Overlap LONG-TERM Our indicator shows that we are approaching historic data overlap transpired on 18/JAN/2021 . Somewhat early but we expect next week to be a final decider for Bitcoin trend direction. We expect another SHORT term retraction to 15,700 k mark and proceed towards 20k Mark with 2 weeks period if successful we shall expect rapid ascend to 40k Mark in a matter of 2 months. Our Entry for Long-Term position LONG would be set @ 15,700-15,800 mark in a meantime we expect SHORT market with HIGH Volatility.
Long
by wikitrades