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BTCUSD 4H/1D charts (4/11/2019)Good morning, traders. Yesterday, I put out a FOMO bull case as has been requested numerous times, so tomorrow I will put out a bear case. Today we will take a look at what happened overnight and see how it compares to what we've been looking at lately since a lot of traders are confused and scared. If you've been in Discord with us, then you know that our admin, Scott, has been mentioning the impending bear div and what needed to happen to overcome it. Ultimately, price was not able to do what needed to be done at this time and it appears that a very short subwave 5 completed wave 3. I tend to get a bit antsy when such a short wave 5 prints but, as I mentioned when price first squeezed up, a large, strong wave 3 can result in a short 5. Furthermore, I have continued to warn against trading wave 5s as they tend to be a lot more erratic as far as their targets go. If you've been watching any of the liquidation bots available on other social media sites or as stand alone apps, then you have seen significant liquidations of shorts and longs over the past week do to this. Don't be those traders. Stop throwing your money away by YOLOing as you attempt to catch the bottom or top. It's worse than buying scratch off tickets. Most Elliott Wave traders will not touch a wave 5 for this reason. Remember, if you're a bear then this latest strong move up has been a part of Wave C of Wave 4, which means you will be looking for a new lower cycle low to complete wave 5 after this final move up. While the bear case appears a lot less likely at this time due to general market cycles, CME volume on that push up, and historical Bitcoin market cycles (most notably, halving coming up in just about a year), until price closes above $6500 you should still keep the bear scenario in mind to help you concentrate on risk management. Like I said, I will go over that bear case tomorrow. Yesterday, I stated that "....price broke through the triangle resistance and this should create a target of $5465 based on the height of the triangle....," and price actually ended up hitting a high of $5466.06. Yes, I gave some higher targets as well, but this is why you should never ignore the height of the triangle even if the triangle looks like part of a pennant, especially when you're trying to find wave 5 targets. The height of the triangle, as you can see, gave the perfect target. We should expect subwave 1 of wave 5 to likely be rejected at the supply zone around $5400-$5500 with subwave 3 pushing through it. Currently, the 1H TF is oversold and the 4H TF RSI is sitting at 41.45 which is slightly bearish. However, 4H Stoch RSI has bottomed and is possibly about to signal a bullish cross. If we see any further downside, so that 4H RSI hits oversold, I expect the pivot at $4863 to support price. As we can see, that is also the top of the ascending channel. Price falling through this level would likely suggest further downside and I would then be looking at the channel's EQ to support price at around $4220-$4240, depending on how long it takes price to get there. That would also be the supply-turned-demand zone at the top of the large TR that appears to have created the bottom of the cycle, which I usually look for price to return to after a breakout of the TR -- a retest of resistance as support. However, wave 4 generally doesn't drop below the wave 4 of the lesser degree, so this has me watching $4778.59 as the point at which price should not be dropping through before heading up to complete wave 5. This is where it is important to pay attention to the higher TFs. When I say that I am looking for levels to support price, I am talking about the 4H candle and larger. This doesn't mean we can't see a wick lower on those candles, but we are expecting to see price ultimately supported around the price level given. So where can we expect wave 5 to target? I am looking for $5774 at least, as long as price can move above $5650. If it can't, then it is possible would could see wave 5 end right there. Moving beyond it gets price right into the $6000 zone's resistance. But I am planning on the wave actually reaching the EQ at $5950. With enough FOMO on the final subwave 5 of wave 5 push, we could even see price tap the 261.8% extension of wave 1 at $6040 which also happens to be the bottom of the HVN. I don't expect this all to happen overnight, however. Wave 4 should take a few days to, possibly, a week to complete depending on whether we get a simple ABC or more complex correction. This will give alts time to produce some profits, so traders should be looking at alt entries rather than attempting to trade this Bitcoin retracement. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
2
BTCUSD 15minute/4H charts (4/9/2019)Good morning, traders. I am getting a lot of unfortunate direct messages from traders who are attempting to trade in and out of the current shorter-term price movement and losing significant sums of capital in the process. As I have continued to warn, this chop is not the time to be doing that. Even really good traders understand they are pushing their luck when attempting to do so. The best advice is to zoom out and get a feel for the bigger picture, without all the sideways chop (noise). If we zoom out to the 4H chart, we can clearly see an ascending triangle printing, contrary to the rising wedge narrative that is permeating TV and CT. We can see volume dropping off as price nears the triangle's resistance which is what we expect to see. Additionally, the 21 EMA continues supporting price. I am watching the 4H RSI for a break through the descending resistance line drawn. That does appear to be coming sooner rather than later as Stoch RSI is oversold and nearing the bottom. Right now, I believe this TF and pattern are what traders should be watching. The target based on the height of the triangle is around $6000. Zooming into the 15 minute TF, I have the current wave structure that I am watching play out. I am not overly confident about this count, however, but some things do line up. The target based on the height of the red flag (descending channel) is just above the R2 pivot which puts it near the expected wave 3 target. The target based on the height of the flagpole leading up to the flag is the R4 pivot which puts it near the expected wave 5 target that would complete this wave 3. It also targets the top of the ascending channel that may be printing. So what does all this mean? It means that we could see wave 3 extend up to $6000. Alternatively, as we have been discussing in Discord, we could also see price range trade sideways within the parallel channel that is drawn. In that case, the current sideways movement would most likely be wave 4 which means we would have to recount our waves. The target based on the height of the parallel channel (trading range) would still be $6000 and that would then complete wave 5 rather than wave 3. Importantly, it doesn't really matter which count is correct at this time, only that they all appear to be agreeing with the pattern's suggestion that we have more upside left to complete. After the move up, we can then reassess the wave count to get a better understanding if that was the final wave up or if there is one more left. We are currently seeing potential hidden bullish divergence printing on the daily chart with RSI still oversold. This most likely won't be confirmed until tomorrow's candle at the earliest. Of course if price takes off higher before then, the divergence won't materialize at all. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
1
Gold preparing for another leg upIn the Investments channel in our Discord, I suggested that it was likely a good time to buy in November 2018 at the point noted. It looks like we may have another good opportunity to buy now as well. Gold appears to be completing subwave 2 of wave 3 with an initial target of the R2 pivot area as well as a full wave 3 target of the R3 pivot area. The former target aligns with the expected target based on the current flag printing and the latter target aligns with target based on the height of the red symmetrical triangle. Weekly RSI remains bullish at 56 while appearing to consolidate. Weekly Stoch RSI is near bottom. The HVN should continue to support price as it readies to move up.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
5
BTCUSD 15min/4H charts (4/5/2019)Good morning, traders. Not much happened over night. Price bounced out of demand at $4778.59 yesterday and is currently attempting to push through supply. A move above this supply level would make a case for bullish continuation of the upward trend before further correction, especially if price exceeds $5100 again. In that case, this small and short retrace would've most likely been subwave 4 of what I believe is wave 3. That would have us expecting price to target the $5500 level at least, with the possibility of attacking the November 18th swing high of $5658.47, before completing wave 3. As those of you who follow my daily videos are aware, that supply at $5500 has been the target that I have consistently suggested is most likely. These current highs align with other pattern targets we have discussed over the past two months as well. All this congestion of targets resulting from the accumulation below makes preciseness difficult until we see definitive movement from here, whether that be up or down. All that being as it is, the 15 minute chart has price printing an ascending wedge which is generally bearish (i.e. price falls through wedge support). That would have price targeting $4830 based on the height of the pattern. As shown, price would hit the small yellow demand just above the larger, green demand zone. It also puts price at the descending channel's EQ. I am not certain just how valid the channel is, but it currently aligns with swing highs and lows, giving it some added weight. Furthermore, price is at the HVN so a failure to continue through it could result in an accelerated drop like the one seen on April 3rd would likely have price bouncing off the channel support and confirming the flag while hitting our initial target around $4500. RSI on the 15 minute chart has printed an ascending channel whose support it has now fallen through, suggesting downward pressure on price, at least in the near term. Price on the 4H chart continues to be supported by the 21 EMA for now but is showing possible weakness at the descending channel's resistance. While my initial target is the $4400-$4500 range, VPVR shows a large gap down toward $4150 which aligns with my warnings about the possibility of seeing price fall toward that level. As I have stated numerous times, whether price holds at $4400/$4500 or finds support at ~$4000 depends entirely on how much demand shows up. The FOMO was large in the run up to $5000 a few days ago. Many people FOMOed in at $5000+ and are now at break-even or underwater. I would venture that a majority of them have weak hands, meaning any significant move down could very well trigger them to sell. The much more significant support begins around $4150 and the 4H pivot remains at $4025. I will be watching 4H RSI to see if it breaks through its descending resistance after having recently fell out of the ascending wedge. It bounced recently off support at 57. Stoch RSI on the 4H is just now attempting to push out of oversold as well. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
2
BTCUSD 15 minute/1D charts (4/4/2019)Good morning, traders. Price tapped out just shy of the $5300 level at $5282 yesterday. Those in our Discord were alerted three hours prior to the $4800 target of the drop and price hit $4800.50 (missed it by 0.50). I then posted a target of the $5075-$5110 area as resistance and that was hit a few hours later. Unfortunately I often don't think about updating TV. So where are we at now? Sideways, continuing to find resistance at the 15 minute pivot. The orange zone is the monthly OB and the green inside of it is the daily OB, as I have pointed out numerous times before. My short survived the extra bit of push up yesterday, so I remain short toward $4400-$4500 with the caveats of possible wicks lower which I published yesterday and/or the day before. Initial support will likely be found around $4700 at the top of the monthly OB. The 4H RSI dropped through channel support suggesting that more downside is in the cards. Stoch RSI on the 4H is nearing the bottom. The 1H RSI continues to drop and is expected to reach oversold and Stoch RSI is nearing the top. Price is finding resistance at the 21 EMA on the 1H. As mentioned previously, daily RSI is at the top of the ascending channel and Stoch RSI is topped out, suggesting a reversal on that larger TF. Additionally, yesterday's volume almost hit the previous day's volume, yet the candle spread was much smaller and the day ended with a long upper wick. This is indicative of supply coming in and demand fatiguing. The daily 21 EMA is currently at the R1 pivot around $4250. If we can get the correction toward $4500, then that should set up a 5th wave targeting the $6250-$6500 zone. In that case, we would then expect to see a retracement back toward the monthly OB for a final time before further price appreciation as the wave 2 of the larger degree completes. Currently, 15 minute RSI has printed hidden bearish divergence and supply volume spikes are showing up increasingly larger near that pivot suggesting increasing selling into demand which should result in price dropping. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Chris_Inks
BTCUSD 1H/1D charts (4/3/2019)Good morning, traders. Man, the bears are extremely salty today as expected. Lots of narratives going around about why price jumped like it did and how it's just a bull trap to unload bags of BTC. The amount of garbage posting as legitimate TA in this space is almost unfathomable. If you've been following me, especially my daily videos, then you know why price moved like it did. It's been showing us for the past two months, but people are so entrenched in their bearish emotional bias that they refuse to see it. There is no difference between the herd in December 2017 and the herd today -- their targets just happen to be in opposite directions. As I mentioned would happen, bears have been arguing that there hasn't been a higher high this corrective cycle but now that there is one, they argue some other metric that "absolutely must be overcome to indicate that the bear market is over." And when that metric is overcome, they'll just post another metric. It's disbelief. I have been warning you since the corrective market began to be wary of becoming just another herd statistic. That being said, those with "bags" big enough to warrant such an asinine narrative as a "bull trap" at $4000 are not interested in selling such large quantities after a year long corrective cycle that has seen price drop in excess of 80%. What is the upside to doing so? To buy Bitcoin just a tiny bit cheaper? At what cost? The further price pushes down, the more difficult it becomes to continue doing so and the more likely you will see the market act in opposition. In other words, it costs a lot more to continue pushing it down AND the risk simultaneously increases so the risk/reward ratio continues diminishing and the return exponentially decreases in relation to percentage decrease in price. But, again, most who read this won't seek to understand because their emotional bias needs validation. For those of you that have recognized that bias, you likely rode that move up with me or, at the very least, adjusted the stoploss on your short and saved yourself a lot of money. So where are we now? Yesterday I assumed the move up was completed and we were working on the retracement. Nothing has changed that view yet, though we are slightly in the red on our short at this time. If price continues higher, then we just notch a small loss and watch for the end of the upward move where we will attempt to short once more. I have been mentioning for a few months now that the $5300-$5500 level is a likely point of reversal if we broke through $4250/$4300 because of the supply present, so we could see price continue just a bit higher toward that area before commencing the retracement (what I believe will be wave 4). Price closed above the 200 day MA as I mentioned yesterday, in Discord and I believe on Twitter, that I wanted to see happen. The demand zone around $4400/$4500 makes it a logical place for the retracement to end, but the demand that has continued to pour into the pair could see the TR established between $4653 and $5080 producing a flat correction at that area before wave 5 begins rather than dipping back down into the demand zone. As such, the most important thing that I am watching at this time is the blue TR on the 1H TF. If we see price moving upward, out of that TR, with volume then we should be watching for price's reaction around the $5400/$5500 supply level. Until that point, I will be watching for a move back down toward the bottom of the TR and possibly below in the form of a Secondary Test and then potentially one more time as a Spring as this TR is likely re-accumulation but it's too early to know just yet. Zooming out to the 1D chart helps bring about a much better overall perspective. We can see that yesterday's volume surpassed that which was seen during the first leg up in December. So we have expanding volume on increasing candle spread. Contrary to what the bears want you to believe, this is the footprint of demand. RSI is at/near the ascending channel's resistance, suggesting that the price appreciation is at/near the top for now. A retracement toward the demand zone mentioned above would likely allow RSI to cool off enough before the final leg up. Additionally, we can see the 200 day MA is currently sitting at $4600, so it's not far-fetched at all to suggest a wick down into that demand zone with the MA ultimately supporting price, especially when we consider that such a move would provide a 38% retracement as we usually expect for a wave 4. We have to watch what happens up here around $5000-$5100 first though. The 15 min RSI falling through the ascending dotted support will likely give us the first clue that price is potentially headed back to the bottom of the TR at least. A failure of that RSI's resistance to contain upward movement should alert us to possible continued price advance. Twitter's @BitmexRekt is showing numerous liquidiations continually happening as a result of traders attempting to catch the top and bottom. On Twitter yesterday, I mentioned that many retail traders were now going to lose a lot of money doing exactly that so it doesn't come as any surprise. It is imperative that retail traders learn to stop being overly-anxious and wait for a trade to present itself rather than FOMOing in as they attempt to catch the highest and lowest prices. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Chris_Inks
4
BTCUSD 1D chart (4/2/2019)Good morning, traders. As you are likely aware by now, price took off last night and hit a high of $5080 (~$150 above the 1.618 extension off the first wave in December 2018) just above the daily R4 pivot as I have been attempting to prepare everyone for as an increasing likelihood of happening due to price action and volume, especially as of late. I hope we stop hearing all the "low volume" nonsense that has plagued this space for way too long now. As I wrote yesterday, "I continue to see an increasing number of really terrible analysis relating to volume. Yes, volume is low, but this is to be necessarily expected as price nears resistance and the apex of a triangle. So there is nothing overtly bearish about volume at this time. Stop listening to people who say 'volume is low' or 'volume is high.' Without context it means absolutely nothing because volume does not live alone on its own little island." In yesterday's morning update video I stated that we should see a move up toward $4200 followed by a retrace to reset 4H RSI and then a strong move up through that level but that we don't trade on what we think should happen, rather we trade on what the charts say and that the charts were saying we were likely to hit that area and then take off instead. Clearly that is what happened. We are now officially in a bullish trend as price has notched higher lows AND highs for the first time since the 2017 ATH and start of the corrective cycle. Ideally, we would look for a pullback toward the R2 daily pivot at around $4400/$4450 now for wave 4. In terms of Wyckoff, this would create the BUEC/LPS at the top of the TR which is right in the demand zone as noted on the chart. If we can get that, then I am looking for wave 5 to target the $6200/$6300 level which means we would see subwave 3 of wave 5 push through the supply at $5500. I closed out my long on that move up and am now short toward that R2 daily pivot. The plan at this time is to long at that level and look for a target in the low $6000s as mentioned above. We are going to see novice retail traders now lose money attempting to short this move down. They will likely over leverage their short position and get liquidated as price bounces on the way down. Don't be that person. That doesn't mean don't short, it does mean don't over leverage and make sure you are finding confirmation of some sort before entering your short while understanding that residual volatility from last night's move remains so we are likely to see price bouncing $50 or more multiple times within a few seconds at times as price moves. Overall target remains around $14,500/$15,000 based on the height of the large descending wedge that printed from the ATH now that price has decisively pushed through it. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Chris_Inks
8
BTCUSD 1H/1D charts (3/29/2019)Good morning, traders. We saw price push through resistance over night as expected, when 4H RSI breached its own resistance, but supply continues to attempt to halt the momentum. This is the first time price has been able to breach the ATH diagonal resistance line which makes it a significant move. In doing so, price has also left the very large descending wedge which has been printing throughout the entire correction. Based on the height of the wedge, that would ultimately give us a target of around $14,600. My initial target, however, remains the top of the ascending channel/4H R3 pivot (right under the daily R1 pivot). In regards to Elliott Wave counts, that should complete this 5th wave up and signal a small retracement as price prints the wave 2 of the larger degree. I will be looking for that pullback to target the S1-S2 pivot area ($3850-$3900). The move up to complete this small wave 5 would also put price right around the February 24th swing high of $4190. Of course, right above that, looms the December 24th swing high of $4236.84. A move above that one gives us the first higher high since the ATH in December 2017 and signals a possible bullish trend in progress. CME Bitcoin futures expire today which could provide an increase in activity within an hour of it doing so. If the resistance that Bitcoin has been meeting in the $4000 range is due to futures short positions, as I have posited a few times before (and makes sense considering the February expiration saw price at $3950) then there would likely be an attempt to push price down right before the close in order to limit their losses or even make a tiny bit of profit. More importantly, if that's the case, then the overhead resistance that's kept price in check should no longer be an issue after today. CME futures expire at 11:00 a.m. CST (4 p.m. UTC). So, will price be able to hit our target? If it does, it seems more likely that we will see a sharp move up followed by a sharp move down as bulls are trapped for liquidity to get price below $3950 at expiry. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
2
BTCUSD 4H/D1 charts (3/28/2019)Good morning, traders. I hope you are being vigilant and monitoring market conditions. The lull most often results in retail traders losing money as they get bored and lazy because price isn't moving much. Daily volume yesterday was the most we've seen on Bitstamp in over a month and resulted in a nice, large daily candle. Price has halted appreciation at an area of confluence of resistance. We can see the shorter term descending resistance and ATH descending resistance coming together, as well as the ascending channel EQ. Additionally, the vertical red line marks the Bitmex March futures contracts expiry. Daily RSI hit resistance yesterday while Stoch RSI crossed bullishly. Price still hasn't retraced, rather it appears to be consolidating near yesterday's high while printing a bull flag on the 4H TF at the top of the local TR suggesting demand is continuing to build. Price remains above the 4H and daily pivots, as well as their respective HVNs. The target based on the height of the 4H bull flag would be the same target we have continued to watch which is the top of the ascending red channel. The 4H RSI broke through resistance yesterday and is currently testing it as support. A bounce from there should signal price breaking through it's own flag resistance and targeting $4120-$4155, depending on when it does so. Ideally, I would at least like to see that break and a close above the February swing high of $4190. This would give us monthly higher highs from January through March. It would also strengthen the case for bullishness. If we can see price head up from here, then I am initially looking for a target of the red channel resistance followed by a retest of the ATH descending resistance line as support/bounce off the red channel support, and then follow through toward $4538 at a minimum. This latter target is based off the height of the larger descending channel on the daily chart. While there are only three alternating touches (really need four to confirm the channel), it does give us a preliminary target. What we ultimately need to see is a close above the December 24th swing high of $4236.84. This would confirm a bullish trend as we would have a higher high off the corrective, December low. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Chris_Inks
2
BTCUSD 4H/1D charts (3/27/2019)Good morning, traders. Bitcoin made a strong move up over night and is back above the psychological $4000 level. So far, we are watching price do exactly what I said I wouldn't be surprised to see it do a few days back -- the initial drop and subsequent rise. I warned traders against shorting on that drop for anything more than a quick buck. That doesn't guarantee that we won't see price head toward $3600 before moving higher, but at this point it is on the bears to show up and do work, and if they don't then the liquidations/short covering as price surpasses this current level could catapult price through the ATH diagonal resistance and into the $4200/$4300 cluster of shorts. With Bitmex March futures contracts expiring in two days (vertical red line), will we see price get rejected at that resistance or pump through it? Bitmex order books are showing bids at about 10% over asks within $200 range around price and growing. As the spread increases to the $1000 range, bids growth outpaces asks at an exponentially greater rate. This suggests that traders are looking long overall, but until the break through the $4200/$4300 level there remains a chance of a retest of $3600. Daily volume has accelerated today and we still have just under half of the day left before the candle closes, so lots of time to see volume increase even more. Price has found resistance at the short term daily diagonal resistance from February 24th this morning but appears to be consolidating just under it rather than retracing at this time. A push through the cluster of resistance at this level within the next two days should give price a nice boost up. Daily Stoch RSI bounced out of oversold today and is showing a bullish cross if price can hold this level or higher through the daily close. Daily RSI is bullish at 60 and nearing a break of its own descending resistance. We need to see price break the March 21st swing high at $4055.35 to negate the possible hidden bearish divergence forming on the 4H MACD histogram. In doing so, price will need to move up substantially to overcome possible bearish divergence on the 4H MACD, but as mentioned above this is likely if price can make it through the nearby cluster of resistance. Shorter term, I am looking for a break above the local 4H TR with a target of the top of the ascending red channel. The two blue horizontal lines are the swing highs that, if closed above, signal significantly increased likelihood of a push toward $5000. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
1
BTCUSD H4/D1 charts (3/26/2019)Good morning, traders. During yesterday's video I took a look at this pair in multiple different ways. I also mentioned that I wouldn't be surprised at all to see a short drop followed by continued appreciation. Well, we got the drop but so far price has not been able to follow through to the upside. That being said, this pair hit oversold on the H4 yesterday and is just now hitting oversold on the H6. With another 2+ hours left in the current H4 candle, we could see hidden bullish divergence print on RSI. We can already see hidden bullish divergence printing on the H4 MACD between March 11th and today and on the H6 MACD between March 14th and today. H1, H4, and H6 Stoch RSI have bottomed as well. None of this guarantees that we will see a bounce from here, but it sets the stage for one. Now we need to see demand come in and follow through. H4 shows a descending wedge printing, and I have readjusted the red ascending channel to fit the current price action. Order books are starting to show increasing demand, but the fight between supply and demand is still strong. The larger picture shows the daily Stoch RSI has nearly bottomed out but the weekly Stoch RSI recently topped out while weekly RSI hit resistance. However, Stoch RSI can remain topped or bottomed out for multiple periods. Although price remains above the daily pivot, it is currently below the 21 EMA, but there is still another 9+ hours left in the candle, so we could see price closing above it. As long as the C Fork (Chuvashov Fork) holds up on the daily, price should bounce and continue higher. If it falls through the Fork support then we will likely see RSI falling below support as well, indicating further depreciation. Currently, I am watching for H4 RSI to push through resistance as an indication that price has begun an uptrend on that TF. When it does, we should see price pushing through the descending wedge resistance and targeting $4100+. If price continues falling through the H4 demand, then demand around $3600 needs to hold or else we should expect a retest of the corrective low. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
BTCUSD H4/D1 charts (3/21/2019)Good morning, traders. Bitcoin continues to edge higher, but will it be enough to push it through the threshold of resistance? Price hit a high of $4055 this morning before retreating to $3919. The lack of strong follow through to the upside of $4100 and beyond, so far this year, has more and more traders thinking that price must go down rather than up. Could this just be disbelief as price grinds higher through supply? It makes no sense to enter long or short at this time (unless you're entering long for investment purposes which means a year+ TF or your intention is a small scalp with tight risk management). But here's what's likely going to happen -- traders are going to enter at this point anyway because they're bored or they're gambling that price will go their way and they will lack the requisite risk management. "After all," they tell themselves, "I have a 50/50 chance of being right and if I'm right I'll be rich!" As such, they tend to overestimate their ability to exit with profit and as a result overstay their welcome in a chop trade. The fact that price has not dumped to below $3600 yet, but instead continues to grind higher, gives the bullish some support in their thesis that price will head up to $5000 before potentially heading down below that $3600 level. In the near term, this appears to be supported by Stoch RSI bottoming out on the H12 and lower TFs at this time. Overall, we do see that H4 RSI and MACD have been weaker on the high since the previous swing high on March 15th, creating a bearish divergence, which has possibly already played out this morning, and this has led to a possible bullish divergence printing. As such, this could just be a temporary lull before a strong push through resistance -- a liquidation generation event as price took out some stops above the blue TR before taking out stops below it. Expanding the size of the local TR (blue) on the H4 TF shows that we could potentially see price trade sideways between $3900 and $4050 through the end of the month. We can also see the rising wedge in red, that I discussed previously, which suggests a breakdown could have price targeting the $3775/$3800 level if $3900 doesn't provide support. Current visible order books do not support that target on a breakdown at this time, so take that for what it's worth. The wedge is very poorly printed. What I mean is that wedges which have price reacting as expected on a breakdown usually have much cleaner candles which define the wedge better. They lack the significant number of wicks that is prevalent in this particular pattern. As a result, I wouldn't be surprised to see price move sideways, rather than down, if the wedge breaks down. And if that happens, then it is an indication that this local TR is likely re-accumulation, rather than distribution, which would ultimately see price heading higher. Currently, there's no way to know for sure which way price is ultimately heading. The inexperienced will argue that it's definitely going down. Again, this is a possibility, but until we see some sort of confirmation, that's all it is -- a possibility. The D1 TF shows a larger purple TR which would have this current local H4 blue TR possibly acting as the BUEC/LPS. It also shows the ascending red channel that is containing price, as well as a possible larger descending channel/flag. Most interesting at this time is that the H4 volume on that recent drop was almost 3/4 of the volume on the H4 drop of February 24th, but with significantly less volume. This shows us more effort but less result which appears to be indicating that demand is much stronger this time around than it was at that point, so traders should be careful if attempting to ride a large TF short from a recent entry. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
BTCUSD H1/D1 charts (3/20/2019)Good morning, traders. Bitcoin's consolidation intensifies as price nears the symmetrical triangle's apex (descending red solid line and ascending black dashed line). Played out as a pennant, the target should be around $4280. That being said, as I always tell my students, whenever drawing a pennant make sure you also draw the flag because the latter occurs much more often. In this case, we can see that price may be printing an ascending broadening wedge with the wedge's support playing double duty as the triangle's support. A breakdown of this pattern should print the flag support as price targets $3900/10. If this flag were to play out instead of the pennant, then the target on a bullish break would be slightly lower depending on how long it took price to break out. H1 RSI is printing a symmetrical triangle as well and a bullish break of it should see price breaking through pennant resistance whereas a bearish break should see price breaking through pennant support and possibly printing that flag support. Price remains above the ascending blue channel's median which is bullish. There is the chance that price could stall and ultimately even reverse near the blue channel's resistance, so traders need to keep this in mind. This is especially important as it would also be near the descending ATH resistance. However, if price happens to reach the target near $4250/$4300, that should open up a strong, impulsive move up toward $5000 (likely short squeeze). There are never any guarantees, but that is the way things appear at this time. Daily shows us that price remains above the support/resistance level noted by the heavy horizontal blue line. It also remains above the pivot and 21 EMA on the H1 and D1 TFs. Make sure you're not trading out of boredom. Waiting for the proposed setup to complete and subsequent confirmation lessens risk dramatically. Retail traders often overtrade due to boredom, fear of missing out, and/or their dreams of being overnight millionaires, all of which most often results in them losing their capital. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
BTCUSD H4/D1 charts (3/19/219)Good morning, traders. Bitcoin has continued to consolidate as expected and, in doing so, has printed a pennant/symmetrical triangle. Based on the height of the flagpole, price should be targeting the $4250 level once price closes above the triangle's resistance. But traders should also be aware of the $4110 target based on the height of the triangle which puts it within $25 of the target based on the height of the recent local TR, as shown on the daily chart, right at the EQ of the the supply zone. That TR appears to be re-accumulation without a Spring and suggests upward movement. Sitting between the two targets is the descending diagonal ATH resistance which makes it the wild card with a close above being bullish and a close below being potentially bearish. I say potentially because in terms of the larger TR that has been printing since December, we may only see price dip toward $3600 to print an LPS before resuming the uptrend, and of course this wouldn't be bearish at all. H4 RSI has broken through the descending wedge's resistance and is now challenging the descending channel's resistance. Daily RSI is still finding resistance at the ascending channel's EQ. Price remains above the pivots and 21 EMAs of the H1 through D3 TFs. The D3 RSI is now bullish at 52.4 as well. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
BTCUSD H4/D1 charts (3/18/2019)Good morning, traders. Bitcoin surprised a lot of people with its moves over the weekend, but not you, right? You've been paying attention and not allowing emotion to get in the way. As I have been mentioning was likely, Bitcoin finally pushed through $3950 and found initial resistance at $4040. Remember, I warned you to remain mindful of that $4050 level. What remains interesting is the $4250/$4300 level. I have stated many times before that a break through this level could very well likely propel price toward $5000. I would expect high volume if that happens. The question is, will price get there or will it be rejected by that ATH diagonal resistance? For now, I am expecting a bit of consolidation at the current level with the previous resistance at $3900/50 being tested as support. The $4140 level would be the next target. That would put price at the supply's EQ as well as the diagonal resistance. A push through that level would set up a possible run through $4300 and resultant pump (short squeeze) to the $5000 level targets. H4 MACD histogram is showing possible hidden bullish divergence printing between March 14th and today so far which is denoted with the blue line. Additionally, H4 RSI has been printing a descending channel and is headed toward that channel's resistance. A break through that resistance should indicate that price is headed higher once more. This weekend's high found resistance at the ascending channel's EQ, so a close above that EQ should have price targeting the channel's resistance at least. We also saw a bullish MACD cross on the daily this weekend. Price remains above the 21 day EMA and HVN, as well as the H4 21 EMA. I would like to see $3850 hold if price breaks down, but it is ultimately a failure of the swing low at $3658 to provide support that would indicate a likely test of the $3300/$3400 level. Previous D3 candle closed well and price sits above the 21 EMA on that TF. We have had four weekly green candles in a row for a total of about 10% gain. This is the second longest streak of green weeks that we have seen during the corrective market (the longest being the 5 weeks that began April 2, 2018). Although overall still low, weekly volume has remained steady for the past three weeks during these gains as well as 2x higher than it was prior to the drop from $6000. The weekly 21 EMA sits at $4270 currently and MACD's histogram is printing hidden bearish divergence suggesting a bit of a move down if we don't see a squeeze toward $5000 this week. Even a move toward that level will not extinguish the divergence, but it does provide a nice opportunity to safely short toward $4200 afterward and set up continued price appreciation. BTCUSDShorts/Longs ratio is back up to .9824 and oversold suggesting that shorts should be closing and/or longs should be opening sooner rather than later. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
1
BCHUSD - Caught in a Crowd Gathered Pit FightBring your Shiff Fork, this ones Fight Club Style. Looking in on BCHUSD reveals some Mid-to-Short Term Shiff Pitchfork (minus the pitch) action with an array of confirmations. Price action seems to be caught in a crowd gathered pit fight, and the range is ' the low 120's ' (low) and ' the high 130's ' (high). A move down from the .25 Line would likely shove price back up from a supporting .382 zone from the Lower Parallel ( looking like more support in this zone than upper than upper parallel's action resistance ). A move up from the .25 Line might see a kick back to the other side from the .382 upper parallel The back and forth has been going on a modest 18 days, and the trend is mostly sideways, with a less than ideal pitch. What can you do? There it is. Trade the range? Good luck, Traders. May you find yourself on the profitable side of it. ~Harbachan
COINBASE:BCHUSD
by MrJEB
BTCUSD H4/D1 charts (3/15/2019)Good morning, traders. As mentioned yesterday, price finally started moving upward overnight, but a small H4 gap at $3854.77 now remains. We have a recent clean break of the H4 RSI ascending triangle and have met resistance, once more, at the top of the local TR at around $3900. H1 RSI is just now hitting overbought, but I am still looking for an initial move up to the $3940/50 level with a secondary move up to the $4150/60 level. Traders need to remain mindful of the $4050 level along the way, however. H4 RSI may print hidden bearish divergence if price does not breach $3903.98 within the next couple of hours. The time frame across that divergence is less than a day, though, so we shouldn't expect a large movement down in response if it does print. RSI is bullish at 60.3 and MACD has finally crossed bullishly back over centerline. Price remains above the H4 21 EMA and is now cleanly above the HVN as well. Daily RSI is targeting the nearby resistance level at 58 and a close above 61 should have the MACD crossing bullishly. The upper blue horizontal price line is the major resistance level needed to be overcome by price. As mentioned in a previous analysis, price has surpassed that level three times since December but then fallen back below it within a week. The consolidation at/above the HVN suggests preparation for a pop upward which would be inline with our expectations of those higher targets. If further movement to the downside occurs, then I would want to see the February 27th swing low hold at $3658.19. What this means is that I don't want to see a daily close below that. A wick below and close above would print a bullish SFP and signal likely upward price progression once again. If this were to play out, it would be a strong liquidity grab to fuel that price appreciation. Prior to that point, I would want to see the H4 March 8th swing low at $3760.10 hold. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Chris_Inks
2
BTCUSD H4/D1 charts (3/12/2019)Good morning, traders. It looks like we had just a tad bit of a drop overnight which price has been rectifying this morning after having dipped below the H4 pivot. Price is now above the 21 EMA on that TF and RSI has continued to print a descending channel. H$ MACD is curled up and looking for a bullish cross. The small descending wedge that printed gives price a target of $3900, bringing it back to the top of the local TR/EQ of the ascending channel. I have readjusted the ascending channel to fit the recent movement. We can also see a HVN in that same area, but once through that then price should be targeting the top of the ascending channel and R1 pivot. It should be a relatively easy move to the R2 pivot/EQ of the overhead supply/EQ of the ascending purple channel once price moves through $4048. However, it is there that we can't be sure what will happen. It seems most likely that price should retrace back down toward $3900 from that point and then push through the descending ATH resistance. However, we can't ignore the possibility that price just takes off all of the sudden without the retracement. There is enough room on the daily RSI for this latter possibility to occur. As far as the purple ascending channel goes, it is preliminary and may not hold, but it aligns pretty well with price movement which is why I'm watching it. The daily candle is currently printing a possible hammer reversal, but traders are cautioned about acting solely on it until the daily close and confirmation. D3 chart continues to look like a pause before continued upward movement. Weekly is not an easy read due to the larger upper wick a few weeks back but it isn't looking awful at this time which is a positive since the lower TFs are looking more bullish for now. If further movement to the downside occurs, then I would want to see the February 27th swing low hold at $3658.19. What this means is that I don't want to see a daily close below that. A wick below and close above would print a bullish SFP and signal likely upward price progression once again. Prior to that point, I would want to see the H4 March 8th swing low at $3760.10 hold. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Chris_Inks
BTCUSD H4/D1 charts (3/11/2019)Good morning, traders. Bitcoin attempted to push above $3950 this weekend but could not make it happen. As I have been mentioning, there is strong resistance up toward $4000 and overcoming it won't be a walk in the park. Last night's downward move bounced off the daily 21 EMA, finding support on the HVN. An H1 gap was created around $3888 and RSI just bounced off oversold. H4 price is printing higher lows between March 8th and today while RSI is printing lower lows. This all suggests some temporary bottoming and a move up toward $3900 at the least. If we take a look at the H4 channels we can see price attempting to push through the horizontal TR's resistance. Price moved up with four touches on the ascending channel's support. Since the Friday high, it has moved within the descending channel inside it, with some sideways actions happening between the resistance levels of the two horizontal channels. If we see price close above $3900 then we should see it target the ascending channel's resistance. With the H4 RSI touching its descending channel support, and price finding support on the HVN/D1 21 EMA as well as bouncing off the D3 support level, it makes more sense for price to move up from here rather than down. We can also see a bullish hammer printing on the H4 TF signifying a likely reversal. Traders should be cautious around the Friday $3950.25 swing high as price needs to close above it before it can target the mid-$4100s/H4 R2 pivot and nearby swing high of $4190. March 10th saw the daily MACD rejected at the bullish cross. The ascending channel on the D1 chart shows price's possible path toward a double top at the ATH descending resistance. The truth is, there are many paths, down and up, that price can take at this time and many retail traders will lose a lot of money attempting to trade the noise in this area. Lack of patience permeates the retail trading sphere spurred on by emotional get-rich-quick overnight millionaire thoughts. Traders that insist on day trading this level should be much more intent on locking in profits earlier and completing shorter term trades. Those looking to buy in for a longer term run toward $5000 or more are best served by closing the chart once they buy and not looking at it again for a few weeks at least. Finally, as some of you may be aware by now, Binance has scheduled maintenance planned for tomorrow. I have seen "analysis" suggesting that since price dropped through the $6000 level soon after the November 12th Binance maintenance, that price will drop this time as well. While it's always possible, the glaring difference that immediately occurs to me is that price was sitting on support at that time while it is now sitting at resistance. If the same manipulation storyline is followed, then logically it would suggest a push through resistance not a drop in price. If further movement to the downside occurs, then I would want to see the February 27th swing low hold at $3658.19. What this means is that I don't want to see a daily close below that. A wick below and close above would print a bullish SFP and signal likely upward price progression once again. Prior to that point, I would want to see the H4 March 8th swing low at $3760.10 hold. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Chris_Inks
BTCUSD H1/D1 charts (3/8/2019)Good morning, traders. Price continues to press upward in spite of the overhead supply. Because this is happening within sideways movement there isn't much to say today other than the weekend is upon us and we usually see a strong move during that time, so traders should be keeping that in mind regardless of the direction of their trade. The H1 chart shows an Adam and Eve double bottom pattern that forms the local TR. Price is printing a slightly ascending channel as it consolidates toward the $3900/$3940 resistance level. RSI continues to print a descending broadening wedge and MACD completed a bullish crossover earlier this morning and is pulling away from the signal line. The targets remain the same with the expectation of a move up to $4134, at least, based on the height of the double bottom pattern and local TR. Traders should be keeping an eye on volume and price action as price pushes through $3950 and $4000 to get a better idea of how price will react as it nears the target. As mentioned previously, the target has the potential to print a cup, followed by a handle, which would then have price targeting $4700+. D1 chart shows two previous days of doji candles printing slightly higher followed by today's candle which is much more significantly bullish at this time. However, there is still more than 1/3 of the day left in the candle and we need to see the expected follow through. MACD is about to cross bullishly. Be sure to refer to my previous analysis for other possible targets. Yesterday's D3 candle completed strongly bullish and engulfing the previous D3 candle while closing above the 21 EMA and pivot. The weekly candle is looking good at this time as well. Price continues to hold above the 50% level of the December move up, which is bullish. As we discussed a month ago, weekly price is finding itself consolidating between the 200 MA on the bottom and 200 EMA on the top. A close above $4100 would put price above that 200 EMA resistance level. A close below $3885, however, would put price below the 200 MA support level. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Chris_Inks
BTCUSD H1/D1 charts (3/7/2019)Good morning, traders. Not a lot has happened over the past couple of days. We appear to be watching price move sideways. However, if we take a closer look, we can see price making higher lows toward resistance at $3900. This is creating a possible ascending triangle which should have price targeting $3988-$4005 upon a successful breach and follow-through. I had a preliminary descending channel on the H1 RSI yesterday but it now appears that it is printing a descending broadening wedge suggesting that demand is building for another push up as well. Additionally, the H1 MACD is nearing a bullish crossover. A successful continuation through the $4000 level should see price targeting $4130 with a possible wick toward the R1 pivot at $4210. At that point, I don't think price will push through the ATH diagonal red resistance without retracing toward $3900/$3950 first. This would then possibly print a cup and handle pattern with a minimum target of $4700/$4750 based on the pattern, depending on how it forms. The H4 RSI hasn't hit overbought yet either, currently sitting just below it suggesting that price has further appreciation before a good corrective retracement occurs. D1 MACD histogram printed bullish divergence between February 7th and March 4th which resulted in the move up since then. While daily volume has declined since the drop from $6000, it has also evened out since the end of December and appears to be building in strength, overall. This suggests that a base is being formed between $3000 and $4000. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Chris_Inks
BTCUSD H1/D1 charts (3/6/2019)Good morning, traders. I have been looking for something new to point out since yesterday but haven't really found much. Price has been consolidating at the upper end of the move up from yesterday. The dark black horizontal channel gives you the local TR. A close above the top of that TR should provide the target shown which is the EQ of the upper supply zone at around $4130-$4150. My current thought is that if we get a pop up to that level, then we may see a retracement toward the EQ of the green zone on the D1 chart (around $3900) before potentially pushing through the dashed red descending resistance from the ATH. We may even have a smaller move up followed by one smaller move down. If the pop up and retracement described happens, then it is likely that we could see a pennant print which would provide a target of the 1.618 extension at around $4900-$4950 based on the height of the flagpole. Prior to that, we may see price targeting the 1.272 extension/R2 pivot on the way up ($4550-$4630) based on the height of the pennant. H1 RSI is printing a flag, and a break through the flag's resistance should send price upward toward the initial target. Buyers continue to show their interest as RSI isn't getting much of a chance to cool down. This continued pressure as price nears the ATH diagonal resistance suggests that a move through that resistance would create strong bullish momentum overall. As always, we need to see it happen, as well as follow-through. Lower targets remain the same as yesterday but I am expecting the current TR to support price at this time. Beware of a possible bullish SFP printing if there is a sudden drop and price falls below the February 27th swing low. Based on the TR, that would likely print a Spring to create liquidity and move up through the resistance at the top of the TR. If you are looking to short, then you want to see a close below that swing low, at a minimum. Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life. Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Chris_Inks