The Crypto Carousel: BTC, ALTS, and the Money Merry-Go-Round✅ Bitcoin Dominance, BTC, Altcoins ✅
Today we're diving into the fascinating world of money rotation within the cryptocurrency subclasses. We're talking about the rotation of cash between Bitcoin and altcoins, its younger, more diverse siblings.
Imagine a pie where each slice represents a different cryptocurrency. The pie here indicates the total cryptocurrency market cap of both Bitcoin and altcoins, which can increase or decrease at any given time. In other words the TOTAL chart.
- If BTC market cap increases but altcoin market cap shrinks (relative), the pie stays the same size.
- If BTC market cap increase and altcoin market cap increases, the pie size increase and so forth.
Total Market Cap ( CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL ) and BTC.D
Now, imagine a big shiny carousel. Bitcoin is the majestic stallion at the center, while altcoins are the colorful horses surrounding it. Riders (investors) hop on and off, injecting money into the ride (buying) and taking it out (selling). This constant movement is what keeps the crypto carousel spinning.
Let's break it down with visuals:
Chart 1: The Bitcoin Rollercoaster
This rollercoaster represents Bitcoin's price action, and also my view on where we are in the current cycle. (I believe we're in a multimonth correction, followed by the last impulse wave up). You'll need this to know where we are in the cycle right now / LOWER-STABLE:
Chart 2: Bitcoin & Bitcoin Dominance Dance
This chart shows Bitcoin's dominance, which is basically its share of the total crypto market capitalization (market cap = total value of all cryptocurrencies). When Bitcoin's dominance goes up (higher on the chart), it means investors are putting more money into Bitcoin, potentially at the expense of altcoins. Conversely, when dominance goes down, it suggests capital is flowing towards altcoins. The difference is clear:
Chart 3: BTC.D vs TOTAL3
In this chart, we overlay the Total 3 Priceline (turquoise) on top of the Bitcoin Dominance chart. TOTAL3 shows us all alts except ETH.
The Bitcoin Rollercoaster and the S&P 500:
Imagine Bitcoin's price as a rollercoaster. When Bitcoin surges (line goes up), it can sometimes lead to increased investor risk appetite. This might entice some investors to move funds from the S&P 500 into riskier assets like Bitcoin, potentially causing a slight dip in the S&P 500. Conversely, when Bitcoin experiences a price drop, investors might flock back to the perceived stability of the stock market, potentially causing a rise in the S&P 500.
So, is there a guaranteed correlation?
Not quite. The crypto market is a complex beast. But by understanding the relationship between Bitcoin, altcoin prices and dominance, you can get a better sense of where the money merry-go-round might be headed.
Remember, this isn't financial advice! Do your own research before making any crypto investments. But hey, with this knowledge under your belt, you're one step closer to navigating the world of crypto rotations!
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Totalmarketcap
#crytpo total market cap has reached a major resistance zoneqTOTAL1 , #cryptocurrencies total market cap (including #btc #eth #sol #bnb #xrp and all other #altcoins ) is now testing a major resistance zone. Hard declination with volume causes new dumps. Breaking out this zone with weekly closing will be bullish for #bitcoin and all #altcoin s.
Not financial advice.
#cryptomarket mid term weaknessTOTAL1 #cryptocurrencies total market cap chart. (Inc. #btc #bitcoin #eth #sol #bnb #xrp #doge and all #altcoins) Some dead cat bounces are necessary, but overall weakness is playing out with continuation. Former support zone is now turned into a strong resistance zone (Orange box).Declination will be sour.
Not financial advice.
Cryptocurrencies Making Deeper PullbackHey traders!
The US dollar is advancing, make cryptocurrencies weak as stocks market turns south ahead of key economic data from the US. As you know, the Fed will release its latest decision on interest rate policy today, and there is increasing speculation that they will maintain their current stance for a longer period. This anticipation is driving the US dollar higher while stocks are declining, and cryptocurrencies are also turning to the downside.
Looking at the total market cap, we are observing a potential breakout from the wave B triangle, after only a three-wave rise from the April 13th lows, indicating a correction, ideally it represented subwave (C) within a triangle.
If our analysis is correct, then current thrust out of the triangle could still be representing the final leg of this whole correction from March. However, there is still room to drop even to 1.9 trillion before potential support is found. A reversal and a significant bounce back to 1.23 trillion would be necessary for bulls to wake up, which is crucial if you are a short-term trader.
Skate To Where The Puck is Going To Be. Not Where It Has BeenThere’s a Wayne Gretzky quote that’s been repeated in thousands, and thousand meetings, PowerPoint presentations, and I’ll repeat it here, on TradingView:
"Skate to where the puck is going, not where it has been".
It’s a wonderful thought: Instead of chasing what’s already happened, try to get a step ahead! And hey: Wayne Gretzky once scored 92 goals in an 80-game season, so he must know something about success.
Gretzky explains his style of play further:
People think that to be a good player you have just to pick the puck up, deke around ninety-three guys, and take this ungodly slap shot. No!
Let the puck do all the moving and you get yourself in the right place. I don't care if you're Carl Lewis, you can't out skate that little black thing. Just move the puck: give it up, get it back, give it up. It's like Larry Bird. The hardest work he does is getting open.
The jump shot is cake!
That's all hockey is open ice. That's my whole strategy: Find Open Ice.
Chicago coach Mike Keenan said it best: "There's a spot on the ice that's no-man's land, and all the good goal scorers find it." It's a piece of frozen real estate that's just in between the defense and the forward.
Here is just a small sample of some of the quote’s more prominent appearances in business:
👉 Steve Jobs: “There’s an old Wayne Gretzky quote that I love. I skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been. And we’ve always tried to do that at Apple.” (You can listen to him say it here, in the first 10 seconds of a tribute video Apple put together upon Jobs’s death, which is no doubt behind the spike in the Apple shares chart since 2011).
👉 Warren Buffett said on stock market pessimists in 2008: "In waiting for the comfort of good news, they are ignoring Wayne Gretzky’s advice: ‘I skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been."
👉 John Roth, former CEO of Nortel in 2001: "So we’re looking at this and saying, "When the customers have money again, when will that be and which products do we have to have?" - making sure we go to where the puck is going to be."
That last one is a particularly useful reminder of the hollowness of so much corporate speak. Nortel didn’t just miss where the puck was or was going to be, it found itself stuck at home, waiting for someone to give it a lift to the rink.
Inspiration is something between us. It something is in the Open Air.
As a dozen (or so) BTC funds have been launched already, and 4th BTC Halving is in the History already, lets see the main graph to find out where we can inspire further.
A few days ago I found on TradingView this publication published by @CME_Group Bitcoin Halving 2024 – This Time It’s Different.
Thanks to @KevinSvenson_ and his Bitcoin Halving Cycle Profit script, I have to say:
"Who knows, some things may be different this time, but some things may be not".
The main graph is for BTC Market Cap Dominance (log scale). In technical terms we are near upper side of its long term bearish channel, where (based on 40-weeks cycle following each BTC halving) Q4'2024 or even early 2025 indeed is expected for Bearish continuation and further huge draw in BTC Dominance.
Bottom Line
Business has a long history of sports metaphors. Of course, there can be nothing on the charts 100% similar with Gretzky’s uncanny abilities.
Anyway, lets watch ahead of the BTC Dominance, to figure out what the market will look further from now.
📉💡 TOTAL Market Retracement Analysis 💡📉📊 Market Overview:
Recent Movement: The TOTAL cryptocurrency market capitalization has experienced a retracement from approximately $2.6 trillion to $2.35 trillion before rebounding briefly and encountering resistance at the $2.5 trillion level.
Current Trend: Despite the bounce, there's a risk of further downside if the daily support line around $2.35 trillion is breached.
📉 Potential Scenarios:
Breakdown Scenario: If the support at $2.35 trillion is breached:
Downside Targets: Look for potential support zones at $2.10 trillion - $2.20 trillion and $1.80 trillion - $1.90 trillion.
Impact on Altcoins: A market retracement could lead to bearish sentiment for altcoins, potentially resulting in further declines.
Recovery Scenario: If the support holds and the market rebounds:
Upside Potential: Anticipate a potential return to previous levels or higher.
Altcoin Resilience: A successful rebound could stabilize altcoin prices and restore confidence in the market.
💼 Risk Management:
Monitoring Support Levels: Keep a close eye on the $2.35 trillion support level and be prepared to adjust strategies accordingly based on price action.
Managing Positions: Consider implementing risk management strategies such as stop-loss orders to protect against adverse price movements.
Market Sentiment: Stay informed about market sentiment and monitor key indicators for signs of potential trend reversals.
📈💰 Trade Responsibly: Stay cautious and adapt to changing market conditions. Managing risk effectively is crucial in navigating volatile market environments. 📉💡 #TOTAL #MarketAnalysis 🚀📊
Altcoins Excluding BTC and ETH Surge: Navigating Key Levels Towa🚀🌟 Altcoins Excluding BTC and ETH Surge: Navigating Key Levels Towards $1.2 Trillion 💹🔝
Time to dive into the dynamic world of altcoins, focusing on the "Total 3" market cap which excludes Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). This segment of the crypto market has shown remarkable performance, especially after breaking free from a significant yellow descending channel. This breakout was a clear signal of a burgeoning bull run. From a market cap of $352 billion, we've witnessed a climb to $254 billion. But the journey doesn't stop here.
Two pivotal levels stand out in this upward trajectory. Firstly, the $697 billion mark serves as our trend line support. Ascending further, the $938 billion level emerges as the next crucial resistance point. The potential to breach the $1 trillion ceiling is within grasp, aiming for a blue-sky target of $1.2 trillion. This ambitious goal underscores the bullish sentiment permeating the altcoin market.
In the midst of these market movements, one sector deserves our special attention - AI utility within the crypto industry. The synergy between crypto and AI promises to ignite an explosive and intensely captivating sector, poised for significant growth in the forthcoming months and years. Our recent exploration into custom AI solutions and their transformative impact on the crypto universe is something you won't want to miss.
As we continue to chart the course of the Total 3 altcoins market, my analysis remains a steadfast guide on TradingView. The accuracy and foresight demonstrated thus far bolster confidence in the continued relevance and success of these insights.
Stay tuned for more updates and analyses that help navigate these exciting times in the crypto market. Remember, the journey towards understanding and capitalizing on these shifts is ongoing, and I'm here to guide you through each step.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
🌟🌟🌟Lastly allow me to say this could be a great time to look some Ethereum AI Alts:
Custom AI Solutions Reshape Crypto Universe - The Future is Now
🌟🌟🌟
TOTAL Crypto Market Cap update
In Feb, 2021, while enroute to the 1st ATH that year, The TOTAL chart saw a -29% pull back that had many questioning if that was it for the season.
This happened after a Sharp push up after PA had ranged for a while at the end of the previous Year. Some noted at the time, that the MACD was not oversold yet and so a potential for more existed.
That pull back lasted for 7 days and then took off again.
Could we be about to see the same now ?
The Scales are larger right now. For instance, the range at the beginning of this year lasted 8 weeks, compared to the 4 in 2020. We also have the added Value of ETF entering the market and they may not sell off as quickly. We are also in the 2nd week of pull back right now.
We are also finding support on that line of "Danger Zone" I placed on this chart months ago.
A few things to note here, that Kind of contradict each other.
Look at this MACD chart - The Vertical line on the left is where the -29% pull back took place
The Horizontal line is where that date intersected the MACD - See how much further it went up. To the ATH 10 weeks later.
We are currently slightly above that line, with the signal line a similar distance below.
This points towards MORE upside being possable.
BUT, Look at this RSI
The same vertical shows the retrace in 2021, Note how the RSI and the MA of that RSI are crossing at this point.
Now see where we are today. RSI is alreadi oversold and Falling back towards the MA.
This is BEARISH. Look back and see what happened in 2021 when the RSI crossed the MA while dropping.
So we have a story of 2 halves here. Signals pointing in both directions.
Should TOTAL drop that -29%, it does take us to a strong line of support, there is little doubt about that and if we are to reach the expect highs in Early 2025, and maybe more later that year, then we do need to reset to this level to cool off MACD, RSI etc.
As mentioned in other posts, the DMI is also showing change coming but we do not yet know in which direction.
So, Trade with sense, be cautious untill we seea set direction.
Bitcoin and Crypto Market Selloff Analysis (Buy Now or Wait?)On the one hand, this was a needed mini selloff, likely liquidating more leverage out of the system and resetting funding rates.
BTC trying to hold $68k and ETF money still goes brrr...
Will money flow slow, or we get another big push up Monday?
Lots of buy order blocks around $60k up to GETTEX:64K and the crypto day traders are shorting now with that target in mind.
I do expect resistance at the former Market Cycle (Total Market Cap) at $3T.
At least many altcoins are holding here at their 21 day EMA's.
Also a few standouts looking good here for DCA buying.
What do you think?
Crypto Market: Is the Bubble Bursting or the Bull Run Ongoing?The total market capitalization of the crypto market increasingly seems like we might soon see a reversal for Wave 3, as there isn't much room left for upward movement. We would reach the all-time high in market capitalization just above the 361% extension for Wave 3. Thus, we don't believe there can be much further upward movement. Afterward, we should see a significant decline, potentially into the target area of Wave (B). We're not trading this directly; it's included purely as support for our analysis. Then, we'll look to develop Wave (1) further and see one final push. We're essentially anticipating that after this downturn in market capitalization for Wave 4, we might see a surge in altcoins before a more significant and prolonged correction downward for the overarching Wave (2). It's important to remember that we are in an overarching Wave III, indicating significantly rising prices in the future.
⚠️ Market Overview - TOTAL Cryptocurrency Market Cap ⚠️📊 Analysis:
Current Level: TOTAL (Cryptocurrency Market Cap) is at a level last seen towards the end of the last bull run.
Resistance Zone: Currently in the $2.50T - $2.67T area of resistance, and it's extremely overbought.
BTC in Price Discovery: BTC is in price discovery, and uncertainty exists regarding how high it might go.
Risk Management: Traders need to be cautious and manage their risk tightly over the next couple of days.
Next Resistance: If $2.67T is breached, the next resistance is the November 2021 all-time high of $3T.
Potential Support: A rejection could lead to a test of the next area of support at $2.05T - $2.17T.
🌐 Note: Market dynamics can change rapidly. Stay informed about the overall market sentiment and be ready to adapt your strategy accordingly.
Total market cap
This analysis is grounded solely in the data, timeframes, percentages, and ratios observed during the previous bull run. While acknowledging that an 11 trillion valuation may not seem realistic, the possibility becomes more conceivable with the entry of BlackRock and numerous other significant companies into the market. This could potentially reshape the landscape and lead to unprecedented growth.
Total Crypto Marketcap --- PLan Your Exit#TOTAL Crypto has already doubled from it's bear bottom, to it's most recent high.
We are almost in 2024, well into crypto summer now
time is really running out to prepare your portfolio for the inevitable Bull market euphoria phase.
I bring this chart up just to remind everyone, that this cycle has potential to be one of the worst in terms of multiple expansions we have seen so far.
We have gone from exploding 340X in one cycle.. to 33X the last cycle.
I expect this time round it will be a single digit multiplier.
We have to hope and pray we do indeed break the previous ATH , and we don't double top at 3 trillion.. of which there is no guarantee!
My realistic target is around 5 Trillion Dollars, which may sound pessimistic at only 3.5X from here ... but that means your Altcoins adding at least a Trillion dollars of value from here!
Optimistically i'm looking at around 7 trillion dollars, no mean feat!
BTC.d at 30% would equal BTC 2.1 Trillion or $110k per coin.