Will It Hold?Traders,
We are right on track with literally everything as discussed in previous chart updates and videos. No surprises this week, thus, the short weekend update video. The only new development is that Bitcoin is testing our ever-important multi-year trendline yet again. Will the bulls win this tug of war or will the bears finally find the strength to pull price across and to the downside?
Let’s talk about that.
Total3
WER we AR now, Toto? "Bark bark" - Toto answered and Elly pulled on the leash - "Look for blood, look for it!"
And Toto starts sniffin'
gutten Tag mein kline Freunde!
its time to look at the big picture and here iz my opinion:
we are the witnesses of the final (and most strong) wave before regulation and stuff. it shoud end BEFORE 2025, I mean that after 2025 correction of all previous growth will start.
think, analyze and buy the dip. when it comes ofcourse, not now:) THEN.
ps: the structure - I dunno, it seems like a ZigZag, will see - I will update this chart. Maybe ;)
BTC Leads, ETH follows, Altcoins right behind, true?We hear that CRYPTOCAP:BTC runs 1st.
Then CRYPTOCAP:ETH follows.
Then #altcoins lag showing the biggest gains.
Let's see how true that is
Early 2021 Chart:
1 Extended #BTC a little bit more on the left to show that there was a run already in progress.
2 #Bitcoin led the rally & it also TOPPED earlier.
Took #ETH a little longer to run. It topped later. It also sold off faster than its counterpart.
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CRYPTOCAP:BTC hit a mid April peak
CRYPTOCAP:ETH hit a mid May peak
ETH fell faster & coincided with BTC on all bottoms, shown in the yellow box.
#Ethereum resumed run was bigger, but was in conjunction with #Bitcoin.
#BTC made a higher high on this run.
However, while the #ETH run was bigger, peaking a month later both times, it made a lower high.
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CRYPTOCAP:ETH bottomed right above 1k in Mid June - July & tested this in Nov.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC bottomed at a lower price in November.
Both put higher lows in the middle of March.
Since then:
#ETH has done a 4x!
#BTC has done 4.5x & has new ATH!
The #Bitcoin performance is pretty much the same but the technical is better.
#Ethereum is still under the ATH & resistance is currently stopping.
***So far:
The early 2021 run shows CRYPTOCAP:BTC was a clear leader, topped before $ETH.
Later in the year, #BTC peaked first BUT did manage to make another high while #ETH did not.
During bear market, the clear performer was #ethereum. It managed to bottom first, before BTC.
#Bitcoin has similar performance in returns in similar time frames but has been more impressive technically.
***
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CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL 3 = NO CRYPTOCAP:BTC or CRYPTOCAP:ETH
#altcoins follow similar trajectory to #ETH in early 2021 but outperformed it by a very good amount.
The second half of #altcoinseason wasn't as strong as the first half but still outperformed #ethereum & coincided with patterns again.
Smaller caps weakened first showing a loss for risk appetite.
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#Altcoins perform more like CRYPTOCAP:BTC come August 2022.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL 3 bottomed a month AFTER #BTC. This is shown in the yellow box.
Since then, as a whole, smaller caps have severely underperformed #bitcoin
& #ethereum by 50%!
Granted, those in the right sectors have done well. Sectors like #AI #CryptoGaming & #memecoin.
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CRYPTOCAP:BTC is at an ATH
CRYPTOCAP:ETH is 20% away from its previous all time high.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL 3 = is a whopping 50% from its all time high!
*******Conclusion*******
Not sure of the narrative being pushed for the last 2 years is correct. At least in reference to #altcoins as a whole.
If you're in right sectors, yes, it is great! However, looking at the the data shows that most previous winners are severely lagging.
Examples are CRYPTOCAP:BNB CRYPTOCAP:SOL CRYPTOCAP:AVAX BIST:LINK
Hope you enjoyed this & get something out of it.
(Very hard to show all this data here, Please see our profile for more data)
A, B or C? #Crypto Total Market 3. W pattern or Continuation?As we near the end of this bear market in crypto
(in relation to #BTC 4 year cycles)
The lack of liquidity has been evident for many months now, with wild swings in both directions.
Which I have played to to make meaningful gains , if you have been following me on my ideas stream well done.
(YOUR trade = YOUR Risk management)
Lack of liquidity means lack of seller and buyers, yet buying interest in crypto still remains
As the #Doge pump highlights (another idea I shared last week)
I can't help but notice the similar pattern of the previous Bear market bottom... on a much more concentrated timeframe.
What took very nearly two years of price action to form and follow through on.
Is now occurring on a 6/7 month timeframe.
Very interesting indeed!
A, B or C?
Comment below
Bitcoin dominance is Dooooomed down to 17% in the next 3 month wild things will happen, my wild guess either ethereum or XRP will over take bitcoin market cap for a short period of time which will bring down bitcoin dominance to 17%
keep in mind i still think bitcoin will be the top number one in the long term, but in the short term (1-3 months ) brace for surprises
not investment advise
CONSERVATIVE TOTAL3 ALTCOIN MARKET CAP PREDICTIONThis is my conservative Total3 (no BTC or ETH included) altcoin market cap prediction for a minimum all-time high.
Following the past trend, we can expect a high around ~$1.85 trillion . This is +178% from our current price and only a +70% increase from the prior all-time high in 2021. The expected date is an estimate taken from the number of days from the 2nd last ATH to the last ATH.
The data is only a single set and should not be taken as fact in the slightest. However, if we use it as an estimate, we will reach a new ATH on September 15, 2025 , which is 558 calendar days from today.
This is a strictly TA breakdown of the Total2 market cap. With full transparency, I think it is realistic that we will see a greater move than this. We may see this trend line only as resistance before breaking even further above $1.85. I have no time estimate for this.
Everyone knows we now have Bitcoin institutionally adopted. ETFs have exceeded inflow expectations and could lead to greater ATH's than predicted, which could be an indicator for the same moves for altcoins.
Alikze → TOTAL3 | Completing wave 3 upIn time D1 and H8, it is moving in an ascending channel, which has now entered an ascending rally after an ascending cycle and a correction in the form of three waves, which is now in the ascending wave 3, which has the ability to reach certain areas. will have the This moving wave has so far returned 100% of wave 1, which has the ability to reach 1.272 and 1.618, and then, if corrected, it will enter corrective wave 4, and finally wave 5 can extend to at least the specified supply area.
The current wave can have two behavioral scenarios according to the supply area of the previous ceiling.
First scenario: pull back internally and continue the route
The second scenario: the failure of the supply and pullback area and the continuation of the path, which if this scenario is realized, should extend to the indicated Fibo areas.
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Get Ready for ALTSEASON 2024🥳📈📉Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts📈
Bitcoin is undoubtedly on it's way to making a new ATH. But one question is on everyone's mind... wen altseason ?
Parabolic rallies often occur across the altcoin market after a steep increase on BTC and when BTC trades sideways and loses dominance (BTC.D). I'm not going to go into too much detail here, as I've already covered the rotation between BTC and Altcoins in another post here:
I also called the start of a new bullish cycle here:
And then went on to call a few alts early to watch for then coming bull cycle:
ARE YOU PREPARED FOR ALTSEASON 2024?
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CryptoCheck
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3 CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D COINBASE:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSDT
Alikze »» TOTAL 2 | Super cycle wave 3 scenarioGrowth index of the crypto market except for Bitcoin, the scenario of wave 3 of the super cycle
According to the growth index of Total 2, which is apart from Bitcoin. This index is moving in a long-term upward channel, after a complete cycle and its complex correction, first with a growth in the form of a cycle and its correction is currently in the 3rd wave of 3 super cycles, which is the growth ability of this wave. At least 0.78 of the previous wave will have up to 100% of it. Therefore, according to the current microwaves, which is also in the 3rd wave, we should see a good growth in the crypto market. Regardless of short-term corrections, the crypto market cannot be weighed down or deeply corrected at the moment.
Therefore, according to the support in the major ceiling, the limit of invalidity of the failure analysis of the major ceiling will be.
»»»«««»»»«««»»»«««
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Alts Excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum: A Key Analysis! 📈🚀 Alts Excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum: A Key Analysis! 🌟💡
Hi everyone! Today, we're diving deep into the world of altcoins, specifically excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum. This segment of the cryptocurrency market has shown remarkable movements, and I've got some insights that have been instrumental in navigating these waters.
Back in September last year, we identified a prime entry point for altcoins. This was when the market began to show signs of breaking out from a descending channel, signaling potential for substantial gains. By the end of October, this prediction bore fruit as altcoins moved beyond the confines of the channel, marking a critical entry level for savvy traders.
Currently, the market faces a significant challenge at the $600 billion mark. This massive resistance level presents a 58% chance of being breached by altcoins. Such a breakout would not only signify strength but also set the stage for the next major rally towards a $938 billion valuation.
Despite this optimistic outlook, it's crucial to approach the $600 billion resistance with caution. My trading strategy involves setting alerts around this level to potentially take a break from altcoin trades, unless we witness a decisive breakout above this threshold. The implications of surpassing $600 billion are enormous, indicating a bullish trajectory that could redefine the altcoin landscape.
Throughout this period, we've experienced exceptional trades across various altcoins, including STX among others, underscoring the vibrant opportunities within this sector. As we hover around $587 billion, the anticipation builds around the $600 billion resistance.
In conclusion, the altcoin market, excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, remains a hotbed of potential, with pivotal moments just around the corner. Keep a close eye on the $600 billion resistance; a successful breakout could herald the next phase of explosive growth for altcoins.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
TOTAL3 Elliott Waves AnalysisHello friends.
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Everything on the chart.
~510B key level, there will be fork.
If we'll get consolidation above ~520 - target 560 - 580B.
If we dont break 510-520B level, then i will waiting for decreasing.
Good luck everyone!
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It's not financial advice.
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Open to any questions and suggestions
TOTAL3 free to runI never had the time or I forgot to post something about this over the last month, however TOTAL3 turned pretty bullish after breaking out two different resistances. As you can see the second one was retested and since then we're in up only mode. I expect some reaction once we get to next resistance.
I personally don't see any real resistance until that daily one I indicated on the chart. This bull season is going to be fun unless you messed up every single coin/token in your bag! In that case it will be very sad!
TOTAL 3 ~ Potential Breakout in April 2024TOTAL 3
Altcoins minus BTC & ETH
✅Price has broken above the 200 DSMA
✅Price has broken out of the pennant
⏳126th week is 1st April 2024
Earlier today I shared TOTAL 2 which includes CRYPTOCAP:ETH and suggested that including ETH altseason could initiate from Feb/Mar 2024.
TOTAL 2 breaking out ahead of TOTAL 3 makes a lot of sense as this is what has happened in prior cycles
FIRSTLY, bitcoin leads the whole market like it has been.
Secondly, liquidity moves into Layer 1 altcoins like CRYPTOCAP:ETH , CRYPTOCAP:ADA & EURONEXT:ALGO = TOTAL 2 in Feb/Mar
Thirdly, liquidity moves into Layer 2 altcoins like CRYPTOCAP:IMX , CRYPTOCAP:MATIC & NASDAQ:OP (TOTAL 3 in Mar/Apr)
After that the Memecoins and shxtcoins have their wild runs, which usually coincides with peak euphoria and the end of the bull market or a sizable correction. This is why you leave the gambling with small small positions until later in the cycle for those memecoin plays.
I hope this helps you frame the timeline of the market in you mind. It may not happen exactly as outlined with the dates but the sequence will likely be the same so we can watch out for Layer 1's and Layer 2's moment next.
PUKA
crypto $TOTAL 10T Mcap or more?recession bla bla bla
pullback bla bla bla
black swan bla bla bla
...ignore all that, the real question is what marks the top of this next cycle?
With the crypto total mcap holding above the VAH and all pivot avwaps it looks like heights are on the cards.
Of course blackrock and saylor got in at the right time, and it seems they will be propping and propelling the market to new ATHs.
When the mcap breaks 3T it will look to tag the 0.5 fib channel at around 10T, the question is if it can break up the mid channel where does it go?
in terms of distribution around 10T, im imagine 4-5T to be in bitcoin, and the rest distributed to the top 500-1000 alts projects (imagine an average 100B per coin - that will be wild).
whatever your targets are, aim higher!
Altcoins- New strong leg up?Since mid-October, Alts have shown significant upward momentum, experiencing an impressive average gain of approximately 70%.
However, as their combined market cap soared above 500 billion dollars, a predictable correction ensued, with alts retracing around 20% of their gains.
This correction stabilized around the 440 billion mark before initiating a bullish reversal.
As of now, the current price hovers precisely at a short-term resistance level.
A breakthrough above this critical horizontal and psychological threshold at 500 billion could catalyze a fresh upward surge in altcoin prices.
The projected target stands at 620 billion, representing an average increase of 25%.
Notably, certain alts are expected to outperform this average, with some potentially experiencing gains exceeding 100%.
#LTC Suppressed PA#LTC
On the weekly we can notice LTC hasnt moved very much similar to the last cycle.
The indicator below is BBW (Bollinger Band Width). When it is low, this means that the bollinger band is tight = volatility is suppressed.
I will go ahead and buy some LTC here for a swing spot, will update in due time.
TOTAL 3 Cycles SynchronizationHere is the Cycles Synchronization of Crypto Total Market Cap Excluding BTC and ETH (TOTAL 3). At some point, between mid november and mid december 2025, I do expect around 2T Market Cap to be the top for the cycle. 1 year later, the Market Cap could be at around 1T or a bit less, I think.
Will follow with interes...
🔥 Altcoin's In A Huge Bull-Flag: Break Or NotEver since the ETF I've been dominantly bearish on the market. My expectation was that the ETF would be a longer-term top.
However, the short-term looks quite bullish. If TOTAL3 (total altcoin marketcap) can break out of this bull-flag pattern, this could signal a continuation of the bullish trend.
I'm still wary. However, if the market can prove that a reversal is playing out and that the trend will continue, I will naturally switch my bias.
In case of a break out, my target is placed at 585B, which is the first big resistance from back in 2022.