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Timing

Costco ( COST ) Timing & level very close. Another leg down?I like it when price recognises my predictive trend lines, drawn when the high was put in on August 15th. Even better when it has been acting as a resistance angle. The black dashed vertical line here represents time. It's not telling me direction but suggests that's when another bout of momentum should kick in when price reaches it. The blue box is where I would expect price to reach before COST can take a breather and then think about a move up from there. As price has not dipped to the blue box yet, I'd prefer a short stock or long PUT from this level with targets at the red horizontal lines.
NASDAQ:COSTShort
by crando
Simple RSI-MA Algo Beats DOW By Huge Margin Over Past 100 Years!This simple RSI-MA long/short algorithm beats the Dow by a FREAKING HUGE margin over the past century (excluding dividends and trading costs). The algorithm uses a fast SMA of the RSI as a buy/cover signal and a slow SMA of the RSI as a sell/short signal. Backtest period = 09/17/1916 - 11/02/2015 DJIA = 98 --> 17,830 = +18,094% = 5.38% CAGR Algorithm = net profit + open P/L = +43,349% = 6.31% CAGR Notice how the algorithm dodged both the 30s' Great Depression and the 2008 Crisis. Pretty cool huh? :) ALGORITHM'S FORMULA (use weekly chart): Buy/Cover = MA10(RSI10) cross> 50 Sell/Short = MA50(RSI10) cross< 50 STRATEGY TESTER'S SETTINGS: - Initial cash = $10,000 - Pyramiding disabled - Re-investment enabled (order size = 100% of equity) - Trade re-calculations disabled DISCLAIMER: None of my ideas and posts are investment advice. Past performance is not an indication of future results. This strategy was constructed with the benefit of hindsight and its future performance cannot be guaranteed.
DJ:DJI
by Stable_Camel
4
SPX Long/Short Momentum Algorithm Beats S&P500 By A Huge Margin!This simple algorithm uses Exponential Moving Averages of the S&P 500's Relative Strength Index to trigger buy/sell and short/cover signals on a daily chart. I've backtested the algorithm for SPY (1994-present), SPX (1981-present), SPX500 (1971-present), and it beats the S&P 500 in every occasion. The algorithm cannot correctly time every single crash or correction but for the most part, it can avoid and even profit from most major market downturns. Backtest results show that it would have timed both the 2000 and 2008 crashes beautifully. By the way, a new sell/short signal was generated just a few days ago. The last time this happened was in 2008. Hmm... :) Algorithm Rules: Long Entry/Short Exit = EMA100(RSI50) cross> 50 Long Exit/Short Entry = EMA200(RSI50) cross< 50 Enjoy! ~Kory
AMEX:SPY
by Stable_Camel
2
complex consolidation, timing & targetsDepending on what side of the triangle (bottom / top) the price is closer to while approaching the 0.764 fib-time, you can start scaling into the respective trade. Make sure not to buy into a potentially premature breakout at point (E). Targets are based on projections of the widest distance within the triangle, down / up from the apex. For the up-target the absolute value is used, for the down-target the % value. If you have any questions feel free to leave a comment bellow.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MagnusTradingGroup
9
Technical Indicators for Long-term Market TimingIn this post I'd like to share some of the best ways I know of to stay on the right side of the long-term trend. I will stick to technical indicators on price action and the S&P 500, or this discussion could go on way too long. I employ the monthly chart for long-term timing; its perspective is broad enough to show the big picture yet nimble enough to capture the major trends. Before I continue, it is well to remember that past performance is no guarantee of the future. I have tweaked the settings on these indicators to fit certain past market behaviour, which is otherwise known as curve-fitting. The sample size (or at least the one I am working with) for market crashes is low, so it is unwise to make definitive statements about the best indicator or best setting. Even with the data for SPX, starting in 1980, there is no one perfect indicator or setting. Moving Average Crossover One of the most popular approaches for market timing - with good reason - is the moving average crossover. I've found that the exponential moving averages (EMA's) tend to work better than simple averages for this application, and my favoured combination is the 6 and 12-month exponential. At present the blue 6-month EMA of closing price is well above the red 12-month EMA, indicating an uptrend. The crossings seen in the above chart are in early 2008 (bearish) and mid to late 2009 (bullish). During the bumpy market of 2010 & '11, the lines came very close to crossing over but did not cross. So the signal ever since 2009 has been to 'buy' or 'hold' stocks (at least those in the S&P 500 index). The volatility surge in October (see the long tail highlighted in yellow) brought out quite a few "Chicken Littles"; predictions of 50% markdowns and the next bear market abounded. In truth the swoon was a little harrowing but just by focusing on these moving averages - and ignoring the noise - you would have sailed through relatively unscathed. MACD Taking the moving average concept one step further, we know that the MACD oscillator is the difference between two EMA's, so we should be able to replicate the crossover system with this indicator. Indeed a bearish crossover would correspond to the MACD (light blue line) going negative, and as seen above its zero crossings coincide with the moving average crossovers on the main chart. Now the advantage of the MACD is that a signal line is provided, which is just a moving average of MACD. As the bullish moving average crossover can be a bit slow to happen after a bear market bottom, we can instead look for a signal line crossover. The signal crossover in mid 2009 provides an excellent example; it occurs a full 4 months before the EMA crossover. In this application I ignore the signal line when the MACD is above zero; I don't take bearish signal crossovers as sell signals and only consider the bullish crossovers. I use the 6 and 12 month EMA's with a 14 month signal line; you could use a shorter period signal line for faster response but this generates some false signals. RSI I use RSI(14) with a cross downward through 50 as the sell signal and a cross upward through 30 for the buy. The background colour on the indicator above covers only the 30 to 50 region. The RSI reacts quickly to market movement which is both its strength and its weakness; it provides timely signals but they can be spurious (see orange circles). After the bottom in 2009 the RSI performed the best out of all these indicators for getting back into the market; it crossed above 30 after the second month of the uptrend. However during 2010 and '11 it oscillated around the 50 level, giving some unnecessary sell signals. In these cases I would take the recovery above 50 as a new buy signal. The question might also be raised, what if the RSI doesn't reach as low as 30 during a bear market sell-off ? The safest answer would be to wait until it crosses 50 again, but judgement is called for; a low of 35 or less would probably suffice.
SP:SPXLong
by blindfreddy
3
Why Timing is Everything in the MarketFor a detailed commentary and analysis, please refer to our blog post published 7/27/14: www.syncubate.com Zillow made headlines last week on a possible merger with Trulia, and the stock has since surged in value to nearly $160 a share. The buyout of Trulia was confirmed earlier today. On the weekly chart, the stock's price fluctuations show a bull trend picking up steam in the beginning of 2014. From that point forward, +DMI has remained above -DMI, conveying the persistent strength of the bulls over the bears. Timing is everything in the market - in our latest blog post, we discuss why traders must respect time in their trade planning, highlighting our analysis of Zillow's daily chart versus weekly chart.
NASDAQ:Z
by Syncubate
A simple trend based market timing system - revisedRevised: now using the "MA Cross" indicator which has the actual cross drawn on the chart. Previously I was using my eyes to spot and missed 4 crossovers. Use 3 month EMA and 5 month EMA cross over as signal to enter or exit market. Monitoring - once every month at last trading day of the month. Buy - when 3M EMA crosses above 5M EMA Sell - when 3M EMA crosses below 5M EMA Since 2000, this system needs only 14 trades, avoids most of losses and captures most of the gains. According to this system, if you are a long term investor, you should keep investing now until 3M EMA crosses below 5M EMA.
SP:SPX
by CosmicDust
7
A simple trend based market timing systemUse 3 month EMA and 5 month EMA cross over as signal to enter or exit market. Monitoring - once every month at last trading day of the month. Buy - when 3M EMA crosses above 5M EMA Sell - when 3M EMA crosses below 5M EMA Since 2000, this system needs only 10 trades, avoids most of losses and captures most of the gains. According to this system, if you are a long term investor, you should keep investing now until 3M EMA crosses below 5M EMA.
SP:SPX
by CosmicDust
2