COPPER Long Term Buying OpportunityThis trade technically constitutes as calling a bottom (which I don't particularly like to do), although I have a few good reasons why I'll be taking this long trade. First and foremost, Copper is currently tuning away from the bottom of it's long term curved downtrend channel. Secondly, last week's candle was a fairly large hammer. Thirdly, Squeeze momentum is as oversold as it's ever been. The final reason is that over time, Copper has consistently gone through fairly rigid periods of increase and decrease. These periods range from about 100-150 days. Copper is nearing the end of it's current period of decline. A combination of reasons I have listed above describe why I will be long in Copper until approximately January 2016. Leave your thoughts, comments and a like if this was helpful in any way to you. Happy Trading!
TIME
Natural Gas monthly - Aug 18Axis line became support. 2.55 - is a very strong support-since records began. It truly looks like the bottom.
Let the red line break 2.976 and then let it be tested to see if it became the support or not n then go long.
It could really be a long of lifetime. However, if we break 2.55 then it's just a lost cause n short with both hands.
Make sure a clean break is done though.
Stop loss could be around 2.50- I don't suggest stop loss cause everyone has different loss taking capacity but in this
case it will be a lost cause to might as well get out.
DATA VIEW (NOT A FORECAST): PART-TIME EMPLOYMENT STILL HIGHPart-time employment is also declining within its well defined trend since 2012, however it has still some progress to make before reaching pre-crisis levels.
In fact, it is the only systemic fallout left to be erased from the 2008-2009 crisis in the employment data.
Crude monthly going back to 1990- No bottom "yet"Support is actually around 37.88 not 39.60
How do we know that's the support? well-going back to 1990 until now it has acted as support and resistance line.
Also known as axis line has to be tested.
Wait to go long- if planning for short have a good SL around 43
For longs- if cannot wait to go long at least have enough funds to go via multiple entries instead of one big entry.
Bitcoin - BTCUSD - Bitstamp -Time@Mode Rally CompleteBitcoin rallied to the time@mode targets based on the methodology I have presented here at TradingView. You can do the analysis yourself by following the guidelines.
The analysis on the left hand side of the chart is untouched from the last chart I published (see link below for original chart).
The current rally completed an 11-day rally out of the 11-day mode that was created at the 243 level. The range around the mode was 258 to 234, which when you add the 24 point range to the 243 level provided an upside target of 267 which the market reached in 4 days. The action since then is also bullish and the mode is rising and there are many bullish signs within the price action that are long term bullish. The buyers are aggressive and they are clearing out the sellers.
I look forward to pointing out the next trade as it sets up.
Tim 11:53PM July 9, 2015
USDCAD - Daily Time@Mode Analysis - Top ReachedThanks to @IvanLabrie who is constantly following and trading FOREX who pointed out this chart to me this morning, but it was so clear I felt it was worth showing all of you. The pattern here is as clear as you want to find in a trade setup. @IvanLabrie caught it nicely in his analysis and here it is plain and simple.
#1 - Start the trend at the lowest price on the chart.
#2 - Find the most common price since the low (disregard all price action to the left, initially)
#3 - Find the range around the most frequent price (aka - mode).
#4 - Project up the range starting from the mode to get a target price.
- Enter long when you see range expansion from the mode and a low > mode.
#5 - Exit at the target.
You can exit and go short too at the target, but that is another style of trading that you may only want to do once you have piled up some profits first. The best way to sell at the extreme is to wait for the range of trading to contract, as it did in this example yesterday. And you you can sell with 1 average range as your stop loss and target the mid-point of the range initially. You can add to your position as the market falls under the highest low, as it has done today. You want to see "range expansion" to the downside to confirm your trade as soon as possible too, which is happening right now as I type. Range expansion is when the decline today is greater than the range of trading yesterday.
The KEY to this too is the Trend Indicator at the bottom which shows the path of least resistance of the market by looking for this indicator to be on a 2-month high to look for longs and a 2-month low to look for shorts. The key is that selling short up here is a contra-trade to the trend, so you don't get greedy when trading against the trend, rather, you look for fast profits and if they don't emerge, you walk away.
Feel free to send charts to me or to publish charts that set-up with this methodology so we can all find great trades together.
Time@Mode
Tim 8:52AM July 9, 2015
Money-Maker Breakout Stock, MNGAMagneGas (MNGA) has recently had a large order placed to place acetylene in plants for an unnamed cement company (Argos Cement is being named as the number one suspect for the company who placed the order). This caused the stock to gain 10.1% up to .95 a share from its previous .84 a share. There was also a volume spike due to the breaking news the company issued which increased the volume up to 11,325,224 trades, while it's average volume is only 608,502 trades. A similar occurrence happened in late March of last year when the volume spiked up to almost 30,000,000 trades and in turn increased the price to 2.40 a share. The overall trend of the stock from its last price spike is bearish but with news of a new gas order and the profit margin rising almost 850% I believe we are looking at an extremely high probability of a breakout where we could see prices reach upwards of 1.05-1.15 short-term and up to 1.50-1.70 long-term. Definitely a stock that could make some serious money if trend continues.
Trading Plan for next 2 weeksTrade ideas are based on my anticipation of an inverse head and shoulders.
This should atleast help gaining some orientation for price action and time windows.
Make sure to check out my other charts for more information.
Feel free to leave comments or questions bellow and upvote this chart if this is usefull to you.
Cheers : ]
How to properly scale your chartsMany charting tools require a proper scaling of price / time.
This is the method I'm using to scale my charts if needed.
1) Draw a rectangle somewhere on your chart
2) Set it's coordinates to 1:1
So if the price coordinates are 300/350 , set the bar (time)
coordinates to have the same difference of 50 in this case
3) Draw a "Fib Speed Resistance Arc". You can find it in the
second tool bar menu where you also find the Fib Retracement
4) Set it's PRICE coordinates to the same you have set for the rectangle.
For both BAR coordinates you use the smaller number from the rectangle bar coordinates.
Now after you have done that drag one axis (price or time) and move it around.
Watch the upper right corner of the rectangle cross with the fib arcs.
If it crosses with the 1 fib arc, you have a 1:1 scaling.
On the chart example you can see it cross the 3 fib arc so the scaling is 3:1
If you found a nice scaling, right-click the price axis and select "Lock Scale"
so you can zoom in and out of the chart without changing the scaling.
You can try the following scaling ratios:
0.5 / 1 / 1.272 / 1.414 / 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / ...
also all the X.618 ratios could be usefull. (0.618 / 1.618 / 2.618 / 3.618 / ... )
Let me know how this works out for you and feel
free to leave a comment if something is unclear.
Cheerz : ]
SN Sanchez Energy Accum/Dist Breakout to All Time HighsSanchez Energy's chart may look down-and-out with recent profit taking, but actually it is the Accumulation/Distribution Line (ADL) that tells the real story. The ADL has broken out to all time highs, and now the chart has to play catch-up and rally, the Heikin-Ashi TrendBars are signalling that the new bullish trend has already started.
Reference ADL Divergence
www.tradingview.com
Anticipatory layout with important trend lines, levels, timefibsWe might be cought in sideways within the red channel for another 20 days.
I look at the Willy or MAGNUS™ indicator and compare it to a similar situation we had a couple months ago.
The yellow box had some rangebound action in it with a little breakdown in the middle ( just like we had it now ).
The question is what will happen after the yellow box? The red box like last time?
Then we will definitelly see 280 again.
Or if 320 holds (looks like some strong demand is sitting there),
we'll see another pump like seen in the last green box !
Also check out the time fib analysis :
0.382 & 0.618 were important points in time, so 1 will probably be important too! Likely a major low/high in price.
The target for a bullish move is the thick blue dashed line, which is this years top resistance trend line. You can expect sellers there.
Gold Price and Time Squaring Using Fibonacci NumbersAs an update to the previous post, 1201$ did act as a short term resistance, pushing the price back down to 1142 in a few days.
Now, I have marked the low at 1131$ as a Major Low for various reasons:
1st, because it has shown impulsive price action which we have not already seen since the Major Top at 10th of July.
2nd, because We've counted the Elliott Waves and this low was the end of the 5th wave and the top at 1220$ retraced 38.2%
of the whole bearish wave.
So if this is our new Major price extreme, we are going to change our anchor price from 1345$ to 1131$.
I have found the daily bar in 1st December 2014 a really crazy bar.
Here's why:
From the low at 1131$ to this bar's top, it is 89$ difference.
Also from the start of the downfall for Gold, which happened in 10th of July, to this candle's date is exactly 144 Calendar Days.
It seems to be an example of squaring in price and time.
I have opened a test trade just to meet the lows.
If this analysis turns out to be true, we will be seeing new lows for gold in the following weeks.
As always, I'll be happy to hear your comments.
And until next time,
Take care.
Fun With (Time) Fibs, Follow Up.This is just a follow up chart for an earlier idea I had albeit given up on ( ). I've had to update it for the obvious reason that the April 10th bottom didn't hold, thus the time fibs fell out of whack. So this is just the same basic, mirrored time fib study as last time, just built on the latest data available.
DAX German Stock Index -Daily -"If the log rolls over". SELLDAX potential "smack down" from a 5-day time at mode signal ending on Thursday's close and note that the new 5-breakout-failure where a 5-day consolidation failed to lead to a new buy signal could be a sign of exhaustion up here ... A little drop and a sell signal is triggered (and CCI has crossed under +100 for a 4th time in this rally = typical of a bull market move. A main cause for concern is the "internal strength" of the rally as measured by my proprietary "range movement" indicator is saying this is a "weak rally" with a sub-par 50% retracement... So, I am looking to SELL under The previous 3-day lows and target 9080 minimum. 9291 last...
If we get a range completely above the purple "6" rectangle area, then a new buy signal will register. Cover any shorts and go long.
SP500 below 1.000 within April 2016....Looking at the tops of 2000, and 2007, it is interesting to see where we are 06. Nov 2014 in price and time related to these two former tops.
Calculating the time from the Sept. 2000 to the October 2007 top, and then extend the 85 bars from 2007 to November 2014. Markets can be due for longer correction. Adding the pitchfork shows the index streched on price.
The downmove in 2000 took the SP500 - 48% in 668 days. The downmove in 2007 took the SP500 - 56% in 518 days. If we calculated the shortest move in price and time, markets can end up below 1.000 within March of 2016. Comments?
Brent Crude Oil is heading towards a sweet area for a shortHello guys,
After the recent break of crude oil out of a really lengthy consolidation phase (Triangle), as anticipated we're seeing lower lows ever since.
This trending environment makes every Elliott Wave trader happier than any other time.
In the previous 14 days we've been sitting in the retracement of the recent down-move.
We're heading towards a sweet confluence area which I've marked with a tiny yellow rectangle.
As noted in the chart it has incredible confluences of all kind. From 1.272 expansion to 38.2% retracement.
This kind of setup is ranked among highest probability trade setups.
Now, as every smart trader wants to get out of a wrong setup, we're put our stops on 94.2, just above 61.8% retracement, in order to get out of this trade with minimum loss.
I've never done time predictions, but let me test my luck on this one:
I think UKOIL is going to hit 89.2 at the end of September or early in November.
My projected days are: 31st of September or 2nd, 3rd of November.
I got this time from the time cycles Brent has been going through.
The retracements have been 6 days long. Now this one is expected to be 18 days long = 3 x 6 days
I hope this setup sets as expected,
Until next time, have a profitable week.
Davood Wadi.
Future of BitcoinFibonacci numbers (blue vertical lines) and ratios (purple) applied on time.
In case of failure, we break 450, and should expect 260 (last bubbles top)
If we keep climbing up and break top resistance expect rally up to 3000 - 4000.
Infact targets like 10k for the next bubble are unreasonable.
The next bubble will be more like a last breath of the bulls,
before a major correction to around 440 (current bottom level).
A major correction is needed to balance out the
bearish divergence of the last bubble (see weekly RSI etc.)
Only then we will find ourself in a more modest uptrend with
next bubble peaking around 18k at fib number 8 at beginning of 2017.