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A Bitcoin Fib-Time Based Cycle (Concept #3)In this chart, we explore a third Bitcoin Fib-Time Cycles concept (3/5). Refer to the original idea for concept #1 or concept #2 (linked below). In this concept, we position Bitcoin within an unconventional greater two-cycle phase, where the current cycle, Cycle 2, contributes to a Supercycle. It offers a twist that may appeal to the more contrarian, as its approach is taken from the emotional 'Herd' perspective. We use this to examine investor sentiment as it often conflicts with price action and can provide moments of opportunities or reasons to prepare and avert risk. Unlike other concepts, each signpost should be viewed as a rolling emotional peak within that period, until the next is triggered. This chart is not to be confused with other concepts, however, it can be confluent whilst still being conceptually distinct. In this third concept, the positioning of the trend-based Fib-Time Extensions has been drawn from Bitcoin's inception to the first impulse rally in 2020. From there it is then projected sequentially again up until 2030. The rationale behind this theory is based on the idea that originated from my first-ever TV-published chart (linked below) . The shift in Bitcoin's cyclical nature poses a possibility that most of Bitcoin's growth from the early stages (2009 to 2013) is now in a repetitive sequence. This could indicate signs at greater levels playing into larger growth, which then forecasts a longer-term bear market. Note: These vertical projections are not manually placed; they are based on Fibonacci sequence numbers derived from the denoted placements (0-1). Interestingly, where they end up closely correlates to the major pivots across Bitcoin's historical patterns. Importantly, this is not a price prediction or estimation, nor does it offer an overall bearish or bullish take. Although the outlook seems bullish (short-term), cycles can play out over the years, and we may not have seen Bitcoin's final cycle just yet. This is why this is an alternative concept to others I have been exploring. More alternatives in the coming weeks and months. This chart merely presents a conceptual analysis of Bitcoin's time and cycles to date, highlighting key pivotal points and how Bitcoin can often play on emotion and sentiment-driven participants. Overall it is worth observing even without this concept as understanding timing and environmental circumstances can be just as crucial as managing risk or setting price targets. Having a plan to correlate these factors allows you to spend less time watching charts and more time enjoying whatever you want. Key Takeaways: This chart is based on the 2-week timeframe as its projections are till mid-2030 With a 1-2 weeks variance, each fib-time level (signpost) approximately triggers the next shift in the emotional phase. It is within a phase to anticipate the preceding signpost and observe the sentiment with the correct mindset. Each fib range marks approximately 3808 days (10.43yrs) Note that 0.5 is not an actual fib level. Once a cycle of phases is completed, we will assess as I believe this concept could prove to be a new set of cycles. We are 2 weeks, and 3 days until we crossover the next signpost (The Fomo Sweats!) Crossing the next signpost does suggest that there is a 1-3 month period of rapid upside. This current second iteration cycle is projected to end in Jun 2030. This is purely a concept and not certain and not financial advice. I apologise for the resolution. A screenshot can be viewed here:
INDEX:BTCUSD
by LiquidMafia
FIL 17.01.24In an environment where the market is generally positive, the halving is approaching, and finally interest rate cuts are discussed, FIL coin will also get its share. The rising trend (green line) will be the best place to buy, but since I do not want to wait, it would be best to buy in pieces, including these levels. It will be ready to fly when the 4-hour candle closes above the falling trend (red line) and retests. TP1 : 7.4 TP2 : 7.99 (psychological resistance) TP3 : 8.61 What I write here serves as a note to myself. Does not include investment advice.
Long
by BarbarKalyon
GBPUSD - Extended into the 61.8% area. OANDA:GBPUSD Has extended higher into the 61.8% level @ 1.2720. Now with other USD pairs we look at the DXY to see if its going to hold these levels or break in which case we will see higher Indices, Gold & USD Pairs. Big couple of days ahead. If it breaks these levels then the 78% & 1.2900 would be the next target.. With other straight line moves its best to wait for a top to come in and break then Sell the first 382 PB. Will be keeping an eye on this one.
Short
by L_F
2
Unlocking Opportunities: Maximizing Dec. Gains Beyond TradingUnlocking Opportunities: Maximizing December Gains Beyond Trading Introduction: As December unfolds and the year draws to a close, it's not uncommon for traders to take a step back and assess their performance. The trading landscape experiences a shift, with many prominent investors winding down for the year, paving the way for unique opportunities for those who approach the market strategically. In this blog post, we'll explore how traders can benefit from the distinctive conditions of December, leveraging the year-end dynamics to refine their trading strategies and set the stage for success in the upcoming year. 1. Reflect on the Year: Before diving into the specific opportunities December presents, take a moment to reflect on your trading journey throughout the year. Consider the overall performance of your trades, taking note of both successes and setbacks. This reflection is a crucial first step in understanding your strengths and weaknesses as a trader. Take a comprehensive look at your trading performance throughout the year. Consider the following aspects: Trade Outcomes: Evaluate the overall success of your trades. Identify the ones that were profitable and those that resulted in losses. Market Conditions: Examine how your strategies performed under various market conditions. Note any patterns in your trading success or challenges during specific market trends. As an example; I examine my trading performance throughout the year. I did observe that my swing trading strategy worked well during trending markets but struggled during choppy, sideways conditions. This reflection prompts me to consider adjustments to my strategy to better navigate varying market conditions. 2. Evaluate Pros and Cons: Identify the pros and cons of your trading strategies over the past year. What worked well for you, and what didn't? Analyzing these aspects can help you fine-tune your approach, building on your strengths and addressing any weaknesses. Take note of the market conditions under which your strategies excelled or faltered. Dig deeper into the strengths and weaknesses of your trading strategies: Successful Strategies: Identify the aspects of your trading approach that worked well. This could include specific indicators, timeframes, or types of assets that consistently yielded positive results. Challenges Faced: Analyze the reasons behind unsuccessful trades. Pinpoint any recurring issues, whether they are related to strategy execution, risk management, or market analysis. Adaptability: Ask yourself, "Is your strategy working for you?" If there's discomfort or a sense that your current strategy is not aligning with your trading goals, consider your options: - Explore New Strategies: Are you considering a shift in strategy? Perhaps there's a new approach or methodology that better suits your risk tolerance and market outlook. - Give More Time: Alternatively, are you planning to invest more time in your existing strategy? Sometimes, patience and fine-tuning can enhance the effectiveness of a proven approach. As an Example; I identified that my strengths lie in thorough technical analysis but acknowledges a weakness in managing emotions during periods of heightened volatility. I realized that implementing stricter risk management protocols could help mitigate losses during turbulent market phases. 3. Journal Your Trades: If you haven't already, start journaling your trades. Documenting your trading activities provides valuable insights into your decision-making process. Review your trades and identify patterns, both in successful and unsuccessful scenarios. What emotions were at play during specific trades? This self-awareness can be a powerful tool for refining your trading psychology. Initiate or revisit your trading journal, documenting each trade along with additional details: Decision-Making Process: Record the factors influencing your decisions for each trade. This includes technical and fundamental analysis, as well as any emotional factors that may have played a role. Emotional Reflection: Explore the emotional aspect of your trading. Note instances of fear, greed, or overconfidence. Understanding your emotional responses can help you make more informed decisions in the future. As an Example; I started a detailed trading journal, recording the rationale behind each trade and the emotions I’d experienced. Upon review, I noticed that I tend to become overly cautious during winning streaks, leading me to exit profitable trades prematurely. This awareness prompts me to work on maintaining discipline during profitable runs. 4. Statistical Analysis: Dig deeper into the statistics of your trades. Examine metrics such as win-loss ratio, average gain/loss, and drawdowns. These quantitative measures can offer a more objective view of your performance, helping you identify areas for improvement. Look for patterns in your trading data and consider how adjustments to your strategy might enhance overall profitability. Delve into the quantitative aspects of your trading performance: Win-Loss Ratio: Calculate the ratio of your winning trades to losing trades. A higher ratio indicates more successful trades. Average Gain/Loss: Evaluate the average profit and loss per trade. This metric helps you gauge the effectiveness of your profit-taking and stop-loss strategies. Drawdowns: Identify periods of significant drawdown. Understanding these downturns is crucial for risk management and improving overall stability. As an Example; I analyze my trading statistics and discovered that while my win rate is respectable, I experience larger drawdowns than what is comfortable for me. I decided to adjust my position sizing to limit the impact of losing streaks on my overall portfolio. 5. Spend Time in Backtesting: Utilize the quieter period of December to engage in thorough backtesting: Strategy Validation: Test your strategies against historical data to validate their efficacy. Identify any potential adjustments needed to align with current market conditions. As an Example; Taking advantage of the quieter December market, I dedicate time to backtesting. I test variations of strategies against historical data, identifying adjustments that improve performance. This process gives me the confidence to implement refinements in the live market. 6. Set Goals for the New Year: As you assess your trading performance, set clear and realistic goals for the upcoming year. Define what you aim to achieve, whether it's improving your win rate, reducing drawdowns, or exploring new trading opportunities. Establishing these objectives provides a roadmap for your trading journey in the year ahead. Establish clear and actionable goals for the upcoming year: Specific Objectives: Define precise objectives such as achieving a target percentage return, improving risk-adjusted returns, or expanding your trading skill set. Realistic Targets: Ensure your goals are realistic and achievable within a given timeframe. Unrealistic expectations can lead to frustration and poor decision-making. As an Example; Reflecting on past years, I acknowledged that setting overly ambitious goals led to frustration. This year, I’d set realistic expectations, aiming for a modest increase in overall profitability. This approach allows me to focus on consistent improvement without the undue pressure of reaching unrealistic targets. Overall: December offers a unique window for traders to step back from active trading, assess their performance, and strategically plan for the future. By leveraging this period of reduced market activity, traders can gain valuable insights, refine their strategies, and set achievable goals for the upcoming year. Make the most of this opportune moment to position yourself for success in your trading endeavors.
Education
by Amr-Sadek
How to Time Manage your Trading – 6 WaysWhen it comes to the world of trading, time isn’t just money – it’s everything. A minute delay, can miss a profit opportunity. A minute delay, can make you question the trade. A minute delay, can affect your emotions. This is something I am constantly working on (even 20 years later). I truly want to wake up earlier, spot trades quicker (as they come) and have a better time management system. I might not be an expert in time management yet, but I will share some crucial tips I have learnt over the years. This will help you to not miss the trade. #1: Why you need to be punctual Being punctual isn’t just a good trait – it’s a survival skill. The markets move so quickly. They move with or without you. And they present opportunities on the daily. You need to be on time and when you see an opportunity that is about to present itself. Write it down. Stick note it. Set a reminder or something. But for Flying Spaghetti monster sake, don’t miss it! #2: Easy to miss a profit – when you don’t time analyses Every trader has stories about the “one that got away”. So what can we do to avoid this? You need to have your watchlists spread out according to what you trade. With TradingView, I have all my watchlists in different categories. Stocks, Forex, Commodities, Indices, International stocks. Etc… Then you’ll need to go over each watchlist every day. Write down the potential trades lining up. Then revisit the markets the next day. You need to be more punctual and disciplined to monitor, analyse and prepare for execution. Those golden opportunities missed due to hesitation or distractions. By maintaining punctuality in monitoring and execution, you can minimize these missed chances and keep your trading performance on the upbeat. #3: Set Reminders: The Power of Alerts Luckily, we have the technology to harness. You can set reminders for price levels to hit, on your own trading and charting platforms. Use these alerts to remind you when to act, or at least prepare for execution. #4: Sticky Note It Old school? Maybe. Effective? Absolutely! It doesn’t hurt to pick up a pen and a sticky note once in a while. Keep these visual reminders, to prioritise what you may be trading today. You’ll be surprised how useful this little pieces of paper are. #5: Develop a Routine Trading is a lifestyle. So you need to establish your routine with it. If you’re an early Hadeda you need to do a full pre-market review and write down the trades lining up for the day. If you prefer to look at the markets in the afternoon, choose a time where you will not be distracted by work, social media, kids or the Rugby! If you are an after the markets kind of trader, then do your research, analyses and even set your trading levels for the next day. I like to plot and draw all the levels and setups in the charts, and then write down which ones are almost ripe for the picking. #6: Prioritize Your Trades Not all trades are ready to action. Some might take a few days or months. What you can do is, flag them or colour them. GREEN – Act soon. ORANGE – Check over the next few days YELLOW – Trade could line up in the next few weeks RED – Potential setup but not likely in a few weeks. This approach will help you allocate your time better. So let’s sum up the time-management methods you can apply. #1: Why you need to be punctual #2: Easy to miss a profit – when you don’t time analyses #3: Set Reminders: The Power of Alerts #4: Sticky Note It #5: Develop a Routine #6: Prioritize Your Trades
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
Total (Crypto Market Cap) 1W until end of 2023Price is expected to move sideways until mid October between 1T and 1.115T Starting mid October scenario is splitting into two: Optimistic and Realistic. End of October will show which scenario takes place. Optimistic scenario includes prolonged sideways movement until start of November and consequent steady growth until the end of 2023. Realistic scenario implies breakdown below 1T bottoming no lower than 922B and ranging there until February with possible false breakout on the edge of 2023 and 2024. Steady growth is expected no earlier than mid February 2024. In my humble opinion, I tend to err to Realistic scenario and it is more aligned with my view of Others.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by discarding
Crypto Analysis - Bitcoin Monthly Price Action FVGWith so much indecision in the market the sentiment has been forked with Bulls and Bears ... the highest since 2003 according to bloomberg's analysis on the S&P targets for analysts High vs Low targets - This general sentiment goes thru out markets that just follow an ebb and flow till something happens in that particular sector. A good example of this is Nasdaq bullish movement due to mostly AI boosting tech into new highs. Or the banking industry affecting the Dow. With that said , Crypto looms with much uncertainty as nations adopt digital currency formed by legislations in their respective localities. My personal standpoint is from a thesis that price action moves to liquidity and inefficiency. Crypto bull runs left much inefficiency and liquidity sits at key areas on the Monthly Timeframe: The Annual Range midpoint for 2022 is noted at 31850 Orderblocks from June 2021 Mean threshold for Open to Close - 36168 Range midpoint 35061 A Fair Value Gap is formed for the month of May 2022 Quad levels for this area: High - 37590 upper quad - June 2021 OB mean Threshold Consequent Encroachement - Near June Close 2021 Lower Quad - 33370 Low, IOFED = ’22 Annual Range Midpoint COINBASE:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSDT BINANCE:BTCUSD
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by ThisIsJA