Techstocks
Adobe: One last round of volatility before the new bull run.Adobe Inc is pulling back inside a 1D Channel Down (MACD = -0.030, RSI = 51.065, Highs/Lows = 0.0000) after the late April High. Having made a Golden Cross formation in mid March, is waves a long term buy signal. But on the shorter term a tough phase is expected where the 1D MA200 should be tested again, most likely providing the necessary support for the new long term bull cycle.
At least this is what happened on the last occurrence of the Golden Cross in in 2012. Golden Cross, then a market Top, same break below the MA50 inside a Channel Down and multiple tests of the MA200 which eventually held. Our long term TP for Adobe is 310.
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AT&T - Long2nd Resistance: $43
1st Resistance: $37
Resistances:
Monthly Chart
Supports:
1st Support: $28
2nd Support: $20
Tesla: Long term buy opportunity.TSLA has made contact with the long term 1M Higher Low supporting trend line, which has provided strong rebound points since Nov 2013. This is the most optimal long term buy opportunity as 1W is approaching the oversold zone (RSI = 32.837). We are long on Tesla targeting 265 before the end of the year and 360 - 380 on a two year horizon.
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Netflix: On the verge of a new aggressive bull run.NFLX has made a Triple Bottom this week on 1D (RSI = 45.541). This calls for an immediate test of the 385 Resistance which is our short term TP.
There is however an interesting development on 1W as well. This Triple Bottom may provide the base for Netflix's new Bull Cycle as in mid March a Golden Cross took place (1DMA50 crossing above 1DMA200) and the price has been on hold to break out higher ever since. The recent trade war news is the reason for this delay and 1W has managed to withstand the pressure by staying neutral (RSI = 53.528, STOCH = 52.597, Highs/Lows = 0.0000).
This creates ideal conditions for a long term bullish break out similar to the last two Golden Crosses since 2014. In 2014 Netflix gained roughly +93% after the Golden Cross and until the next Death Cross (opposite). In 2016 it gained a striking +250%. It is obvious that the upside potential is much larger than the 385 short term target and can extend to 600 in a year's time.
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S&P uptrend ending soonMomentum is slowing down as we approach ath and it looks price could reverse soon.
Tech stocks: The FAANG bubble popped. We are at a prime area for return to normal bull run to top.
Expect disapointing earnings fueling a selloff. Even if they are good we selloff anyway probably :p
And drive the whole market lower.
FAANG all in the same situation and big other ones too.
We seem to be at a time where retail dominated markets reverse in that area.
The chartguys whose videos I sometimes watch says that we could go up easilly if BioTech bounces.
FAANG alone are 11% of the snp and every one watches them, the whole planet knows about them.
Biotech is smaller and less people care and Theranos (eksdee).
Odds look good or ok.
APPLE: Still bullish, aiming for another Gap upwards.AAPL has been on a very strong rise since the early January bottom, trading within a steady 1W Channel Up (RSI = 61.638, MACD = 3.680, Highs/Lows = 11.9657) with clear Higher Lows (entries) and Higher Highs (exits).
Every Gap of the late 2018 correction appears to be a target for this Channel Up, which later is turned into a Support. In that sense the current Support Zone (buy entry) is 196.23 - 198.85 and Target Zone is 213.25 - 217.45.
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Amazon: Golden Cross spotted. How did this trade in the past?AMZN posted a Golden Cross formation on 1D (MA50 crosses over the MA200) yesterday following an impressive EPS. Technically this is a heavy bullish signal.
It is productive to look at how this pattern traded in the past. Since the 2008 Sub-prime mortgage crisis this pattern has been printed another 5 times:
* In 2016 it emerged shortly after a Death Cross (the opposite formation) and after an initial 4 day pull back it gaped up aggressively.
* In 2015 it emerged shortly after (around 20 days) a gap up and after an initial pull back and consolidation it gaped up again aggressively.
* In 2012 it emerged again shortly after (around 20 days) a gap up and after an initial pull back and consolidation it rose aggressively. Note that the candle action is quite similar to the 2019 setting in duration and formation (Death Cross followed by Golden Cross).
* In 2010 it emerged after a strong bullish run, consolidated and continued higher on a steady Channel Up.
* In 2009 it emerged after the 2008 crisis bottom was formed (a little over 4 months), and continued higher on a steady Channel Up. Note that the candle action is quite similar to the 2019 and 2012 settings in duration and formation (Death Cross followed by Golden Cross).
As you see in all cases AMAZON rose significantly after the occurrence of the Golden cross. In 3 out of the 5 cases the price even pulled back on the very first few days, so if that happens again it shouldn't mislead investors. Also in all cases the formation occurred after a Death Cross, with 2015 being the longest, 2016 the shortest and 2012, 2009 very similar to the current (2019) candle sequence.
Taking into account all the above, we are remain bullish on AMZN targeting initially 2,040 and 2,300 in extension.
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$ENT $647,000,000 in Revenues for 2018 Highly UndervaluedTons of Insider Buys from May, 21st to June 11th last year $10,742,000 worth of shares bought, tells me something that was in the making that could potentially take a year to resolve or complete is possibly coming up. Only thing that has me puzzled is the immense PPS drop recently.
seekingalpha.com
2018 Full Year Revenues: $647,000,000
4.5% Increase Year over Year
Adjusted EBITA $73,100,000
7.5% Increase Year over Year
2018 4th Quarter Revenues: $160,600,000
Adjusted EBITA of $17,000,000
Equipment Sales grew 34.5% Year over Year
150 New Aircraft installations forecasted for 2019
Here's some other DD:
1. CEO's goal is to achieve positive free cash flow by 4th Quarter 2019
2. Installation pace doubled from 4th Quarter 2018 to 1st Quarter 2019
3. January launched commercial service
4. 15 Air France aircraft in live service
5. Free messaging alongside paid browsing packages which offer over 300 movies and TV episodes
6. Touch Free via Satellite
7. 100+ Connected devices each flight
8. Launched Q1 2019 Captive Portal on SouthWest flights that saw a 40% jump in devices accessing the portal
9. Lauching Wi-Fi and TV support for Southwest Hawaii routes
10. Launched paid services on Norwegian flights in 4th Quarter
11. Signed new contracts with Norwegian and Disney cruise-lines
Much more in Transcript please read it.
IBM: Completing a bottom with rising volume ahead of earrningsIBM is completing an intermediate-term bottom with a breakout from a consolidation, rising above the bottom resistance level and prior sideways action before the downtrend last summer. The stock has rising volume which is a positive sign for this run ahead of the earnings report in 2 weeks.
Biogen Inc: Rare Long-Term Buy Opportunity.Biogen has lost over 30% of its value this month. Looking at the monthly chart, we have concluded that this is a rare investment opportunity as the current price is just above its 1M Support Zone.
Historically we see that such an aggressive sell off recently took place in 2015 - 2016 and again the stock managed to recover almost reaching the 390 Resistance again. This pattern may be similar to the one the long term (~10 year) consolidation that took place after the 2000 peak. The price then traded sideways roughly within 17.00 - 71.00, providing a buy opportunity on every major pull back.
We believe such an opportunity is presented now. Every dip near the 180 - 205 Support Zone can be bought with 350 - 390 as the Target Zone.
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Amazon (AMZN) to 700 Within 15 Months? Or Blow Off Top?Since my first Amazon analysis, we rallied higher towards a potential double top target, but we met resistance pretty quickly and have begun to drop. There's no need to panic yet, because it seems like the uptrend from 2015 is still intact (in orange). However, if that fails, we may have to head all the way down to our long term log support (in purple), especially if the recent low at 1300 falls. If we follow this descending resistance (in red), this would give us a bottom target near 700 by June, 2020. Total speculation though.
A correction is needed in the tech space, as many of these stocks have risen too high for too long. This sort of growth is unsustainable, and we're already seeing some warning signs (jobs waning and earnings not as stellar as they expected). I've already talked at length about why I think the tech bubble needs to pop in my other analyses, so I won't write more about it here.
In any case, if we happen to move up from here, we might have a blow off to the top of the channel. As you can see, that would take us above 2000.
In sum, trading setups would be -
SHORT breakdown of 1300 - target 700
LONG the breakout towards 2200 (a little more risky, but a possible scenario nonetheless).
Zoomed Out:
This is not financial advice. This is for future reference and speculative purposes only. I don't hold any positions in the stock market at this time. Previous AMZN chart linked at bottom.
-Victor Cobra
What is coming next?Upon Friday close, there is now a standoff between bulls and bears.
Pro:
- Revert to dovish monetary policy
- Lack of alternative assets to be invested in
- Share buybacks are still propping up the market
- Trend is very strong
- Stock market manipulation is supported by banks and governments by any means.
Neutral:
- Institutional investors have shied away from this rally so far.
- Completion of trade deal is priced into the market.
Contra
- Abysmal economic news
- Debt bubble (car and student loans) is close to burst
- Central banks are unable to fight the increasing risk of stagflation or to stimulate economic growth.
- Stocks in general are highly priced.
- Trump's governance is facing more and more controversies (e.g. bragging about China trade deal weakens USA position in negotiations).
NASDAQ 100 - losing steamIf this loss of steam continues there could be trouble. Have a look. Recorded from laptop, so turn up volume to max.
FB: Buybacks Buoy Stock but Privacy Issues Remain a ProblemFacebook, having been pressured by the European authorities for numerous privacy violations and illegal use of its customers’ personal information, is trying to mitigate the risk of criminal charges as well as monopoly charges. Mark Zuckerberg has announced that FB is concerned with the privacy of its customers. He claims, without any details or explanations, that the platform will be more focused on privacy. He is also making some features specific to certain modes of communication.
All of this will impact FB’s stock price. Currently FB has some buybacks in play this year. The intermediate term bottom formation is not completed, and volume is very low. The Institutional Holdings Percentage has declined and even with the recent gap up, the stock has plenty of work to do to create strong momentum energy to move it up further. The changes FB is making may or may not make its customer base happy. That remains to be seen. It also is likely to impact revenues growth.
MSFT Reaches My Double Top Target...Now What? Just a brief analysis. There is a possibility that the market will rally higher and that we will see a blow off top, but the DJI has found pretty substantial resistance again above 26000 so we may be about to see the true initial drop of an incoming recession. The December drop was merely the start, and subsequent rally was constructed so that people have another chance to protect their capital.
In my last MSFT chart, I suggested there was a possibility for a double top if the recent low couldn't be taken out by the bears. I provided the target for this second top (somewhere in the 110-112 area). If we are to follow this setup, we should see a big drop soon. However, if we build support here and move higher, this idea will be invalidated. Looking at the log chart, once the purple uptrend is broken, we will probably see a much deeper selloff. As you can see, there are some fairly low targets.
Things don't necessarily have to play out this way, but I think we need to see some growth slow down, so we can deal with bigger issues as a society (like the environment, for instance).
Not financial advice. This is my opinion based on what I'm seeing in the market.
Link to previous MSFT analysis at bottom.
-Victor Cobra
RIOT - Waiting to test support.RIOT made a big move up with good volume and then started to retrace. I'm looking for a 50% retrace to 3.06 or 61.8% to 2.82, both of which line up with previous support/resistance levels. 2.50 is also in the cards with possible support from the 26 and 50 EMAs. A bounce from any of these levels should send us back toward the 4.00 range. Breaking that level means its a long way down.
BUY CHIP STOCKS (NVIDIA) + (MICRON) LOW RISK, HIGH REWARD.
Although there many be many negative articles surrounding these main stream micro chip stocks, we can see huge upside comparable to risk in these names.
See chart for trade configuration
Sept 2019 forward buy and hold... *********
Forecast for NQ this weekThe trend looks very bullish clearing and holding above the 6845 level that I covered in my YouTube Video here: youtu.be . The 18 day sma is above the 50 day sma, signaling the trend is up.
I'm expecting a push towards the 7000 level (2/3 back from the ATH and reversal from the sell off) this week as long as we hold the 6775-6800 area. Might overshoot to the 200 day sma which is ~7050.
Of course always let price discovery be your guide :-).
What history tells us ...Looking back in history bad things happened whenever 100 EMA crosses down through the 200 EMA. Major correction is likely gonna be ahead. During the century such a situation was observed 21 times, and in 20 cases it triggered a big sell-off.
The reversal may likely happen below the 200 EMA, but compared to the situation in 2015 price could also continue to rally above 200 EMA, will then consolidate and eventually plunge heavily.
I stay focused to enter my bearish position. Just for the time being, I am cautious and trade a small long position here.
Big resistance ahead (trend line, 200 EMA + 63.8% Fibonacci retracement)
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.**
The Tech Bubble May Be Over - GOOGLE Short!This will be a quick analysis. I did a much larger analysis of where I think the economy is going in my Dow Jones post (link at bottom). This is just an idea to illustrate the tech bubble and why we could have some pretty severe downside if this materializes. This is NOT the log chart, but Google hasn't been around that long, so it's not really necessary to use. Major supports are in green. As you can see, we're forming a pretty large head and shoulders amidst a double-top, which is a pretty strong sell signal. The weekly RSI looks pretty oversold, so we could rally up to the high 1100 area first to form a larger right shoulder before dropping. I guess we'll see. We could easily see a 50% decline from current prices though. If we do get down to the $500 zone, I will re-evaluate to gauge the market at the time.
Setup:
Short Below 1000 - Stop loss above 1100
Close around 920
Reopen Short below 920 to target the low 500 zone.
This is not investment advice, and I am not a qualified financial advisor. This is just a potential setup I'm looking at for fun, and to see how it plays out.
-Victor Cobra
Apple (AAPL) Has Probably Plateaued I'm doing this main chart using the log scale because it makes it so obvious that growth is slowing down. We just got rejected hard off the resistance that has held us since the 80's! We're also in a giant rising wedge, and are JUST touching the bottom of it right at this very moment (actually, I'm being generous with my line. In truth, we've broken down already). Now, I don't think Apple will disappear. That's not what this analysis is about. As I've mentioned recently, I think many tech stocks have plateaued. Some may continue higher eventually, but Apple most likely will not grow much. Why? I think the world's population has peaked, and people's interest in technology has also peaked. People who speculated on Apple have also walked out with massive profits. Just look at that graph! In my opinion, and I know it's controversial, there is no reason for Apple to continue to grow at an astronomical rate. As you can see, growth has clearly reached a point that it cannot sustain and it will likely flatline, or experience a long period of slow growth. Their tech has simply become a part of our daily lives. It's almost part of our biology at this point. Why speculate on it anymore? I argue that by becoming so valuable, it has actually set the stage for its own demise. I don't know if this makes any sense to you. By demise I mean stagnation, basically.
Anyway, where Apple flatlines is anyone's guess. We have some possibilities on this chart (green zones). It could be fairly near current prices (in the $80-100 area). Or it could be in the $50 zone. That seems more likely to me, given the size of the tech bubble.
I think people will continue to use Apple products every day, so I don't see it really falling off a cliff permanently. It's also dropped pretty substantially from it's all-time-high already. As I mentioned in my DJI analysis, I was pretty sure it would not be able to sustain above the $1 Trillion market cap. I was surprised that it held up there as long as it did, to be honest. A lot of people out there will keep on harping about investing and how everyone should still hold Apple stock in their portfolio. I do not think there is much upside anymore. It might EVENTUALLY gain back a good amount of what it's lost since the ATH, but I doubt it'll reach beyond $1 Trillion again. This is just my view, though. I could be totally wrong. I just have a feeling about it though.
I am not a professional financial advisor, and this is not financial advice.
-Victor Cobra
