Razer: A Current 57% Discount to FVRazer is riding this long-term channel nicely. Hopefully, we can break through the current pennant and head back towards the top. The recent annual earnings report has reassured my confidence in Razer's long-term growth.
~ They reported 25-45% growth in each portion of Razer's gaming ecosystem in FY2021: software, hardware, and monetization/payments.
~ GPM expansion led by higher margins within the hardware business, showing that demand is steady even with price increases. Higher margins = more earnings left over for shareholders and business augmentation.
~ The PV of cash flow estimates for the next ten years and terminal value has increased since Razer released their FY 2021 earnings, raising the FV to $0.74/share and offering a ~57% discount when observing the current price. Only time will tell if this valuation calculation is justified.
Technology
Tencent .. my ten cents worth on it sharedQuick note... a good friend asked me about Tencent. Given the developments recently, as well as over the past year.
There was some regret in not buying during the dip, but it was about risk management in catching a falling knife IMHO.
Missing the boat is also another feeling, and it is perhaps something dangerous to feel when looking at charts.
So, this is called planning the trade... and in doing so, we might expect a dip in the week of April 25 at about 320-350. IF it does play out to that, we can expect a bottoming pattern to form, and then start looking to go shopping. Not before.
Here we are planning the shopping trip.
For now, it remains as a plan. Wait for it...
For you, my friend... just so we go live on what we spoke about.
NVIDIA NVDAHello, receive a cordial greeting, you have at your disposal the technical analysis of $NVDA, I hope it will help you.
Greetings from Spain L.E.D.
03/23/2022
NQ/MNQ Breakout or Breakdown?Bulls have had a nice and surprising push after fomc to the upside this week. Will be watching if price respects the DT line and will consider this an uptrend day in a bear market instead of an official uptrend reversal period until DT line is broken and value created above. I like longs above 500 as there is plenty of space for bulls to prop this up above there and short below 340, however, closed the day in key supply zone. Currently also sitting at 61% fib and will see if it can create value above 61% and push to 50% or reject below 61% going into next week. No bias, following the price/momentum and playing what the market gives us going into next week. With fomc, recent geo-political events and simply no news for this run-up, next week will should bring more volatility as well.
NASDAQ to break 13KJust an update that a few technical and correlation points suggest that the NSDAQ is likely to break down below 13K.
First up, the breakdown from the consolidation zone was very strong with a gap down and runaway to form a long down candle. No lightening of momentum observed yet.
Next, there appears to be a potential for crude oil price spike. In order for such a spike to occur, there must be a significant event expected to occur. Such an occurrence would also push the NASDAQ down below 13K.
Noted that the lower Bollinger Band is also near 13K, so that may mitigate the downside... hopefully.
Yesterday's close in the white rectangle box was indicative of downside momentum, and can expect some follow through. The yellow box is the projected extended downside expectation; which brings the possibility as low as 11,880.
This is IF support breaks and close below 13K.
12,780 next immediate support below 13K.
Microanalysis of the NASDAQ 4HIn a follow up analysis of the recent favourite, the NASDAQ futures NQ1!, it appears that a possible higher low above 13K has been registered and it is now consolidating below 13,360 (yellow line). Any effort above has been met with swift downdrafts (red ellipse marking the upper tails). If this continues, a breakdown below 13K is expected, and currently is expected to 12,800 target.
Alternatively, a 4H close above the yellow line would signal a breakout of the consolidation zone, and affirmation of a higher low near 13K support.
Technically, 60/40 skewed towards the bears.
Is this the calm before the storm?
Asian into European opening hours would be interesting...
3/13/22 SNOWSnowflake, Inc. ( NYSE:SNOW )
Sector: Technology Services (Packaged Software)
Market Capitalization: $55.263B
Current Price: $180.42
Breakdown price: $185.00
Sell Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $231.00-$193.25
Price Target: $51.20-$48.80 (3rd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 111-120d (3rd)
Contract of Interest: $SNOW 6/17/22 180p
Trade price as of publish date: $26.75/contract
APPLE can hit $185.00 in 3 months. 1D MA200 in focus.I haven't made an analysis publicly on Apple since my September 14 2021 idea:
It was when I first made public of the long-term Channel Up it was trading in and warned about a correction towards the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which has been the stocks major Support since the COVID crash of March 2020. Eventually the pattern proved to be a success, as the price corrected and then upon testing the 1D CCI Support Zone, it rebounded above the 2.0 Fibonacci extension target.
Right now AAPL has been correcting since January 04 High. On February 24 it almost hit the 1D MA200 again as well as the CCI Buy level, but the rebound was rejected near the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and now is again near the MA200. We can see even in corrections, that the CCI Buy Zone can give short-term buy entries. The key here is for the price to break above the 1D MA50, as in previous corrections that was the start of the new uptrend. The 1D MA50/ MA100 (green trend-line) bearish cross, hasn't affected the uptrend's chances before, in fact when it happened the price was already in rise mode.
It appears that the next 1D MA200 contact would be the next long-term Buy Signal for Apple, unless of course the 1D MA50 breaks first. Either way, the CCI has already give a Buy Signal, and for more than 1.5 year, it has been 100% accurate. The 2.0 Fibonacci extension based on the last low is just over $185.00 and that is our long-term target on AAPL.
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NASDAQ indecisivenessAfter its rebound, the NASDAQ index is in a small range of 13800 to 143000. It appears to be trapped in a zone and break out or breakdown will follow a decisive move. When that move will happen?
Have to wait for it and watch it happen... then we will know.
Daily technical indicators suggest a skew to the downside, but the 4H technical indicators indicate a potential bounce up.
Let's wait and see what develops...
XLK Technology ETF - Trend Lines compared to Dot Com CrashA look at how the counter rallies in the dot com crash compare to the market since 2003. The dark red lines all have the same slope on the log scale. I just moved them to align to the peaks.
You can also see that last week caused the price to break down out of the trading channel started in 2019 and then a retest Friday. This morning we are hovering under it.
It is not looking too good for tech since it has both to recapture the channel and break back above the trend line anchored to Jan 2001 peak. Crossing fingers.
1W
1D
Rejected off both the 20 and 200 day moving averages.
NASDAQ down to retest Sept 2020 peak or rally to 15,000+NASDAQ is setting up to make big move up or down. This morning saw a retest of the main trading channel since 2016.
If it holds, then this will be a higher low and look for a rally to 15,000 to 15,300 levels. This would be the best bull case with a low but possible change to get back to ATHs.
If it breaks down, then we could retest 13,200 level and then rally, but more likely we could drop down to test Sept 2020 peak. Another stong support trend line meets up with the Sept 2020 peak in that range, which would be a great chance for a rally. However, that would put the NASADQ back in the 2016 channel and the likelyhood of seeing ATH again are very low.
3/6/22 BOXBox, Inc. ( NYSE:BOX )
Sector: Technology Services (Information technology Services)
Market Capitalization: 4.057B
Current Price: $27.36
Breakout price: $28.00
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $26.75-$24.40
Price Target: $30.00-$31.00
Estimated Duration to Target: 73-75d
Contract of Interest: $BOX 5/20/22 26c
Trade price as of publish date: $2.85/contract
texh giant deciding its own future (AMZN)people like amazon for a lot of reasons. i like it for its typical intraday technical strength. when markets and big tech take a hit this thing goes down hard, but it comes back juat as hard and uaually ends up higher. i like the idea of a bounce here.
a well liked stock that is certainly not finished (FB)facebook is making the rounds down to the 200 area, but whats this stock really worth? theres no reasont to think a turn around is happening per se but if we see conditio s that indicate its headed for the vwma i like this thing long.
$ORAI - ZK-ROLLUP GEMSome important lvls, trendlines and a fibb.
Dont miss out anon.
Gains to be made :D
NASDAQ technical rebound in playAs projected (in previous idea post), the NASDAQ futures spiked down to (almost) 13K and then bounced immediately. This happened on Thursday after the open initiation of the Russia-Ukraine global event. The following day continued the recovery rally.
The Weekly candlestick is now very bullish looking as there formed an intraweek ultra long tail of almost 1K index points. While technicals point to a bearish scenario overall, the NASDAQ was briefly in bear correction territory but recovered. This suggest bullishness.
The Daily candlestick pattern is also rather bullish, with a similar intraday long tail and a near marubozu body engulfing, followed through by another bullish candle that closed the day (and week) at the top. The MACD has a bullish divergence that is just turning upwards in support.
Fractal bullishness here.
The next couple of weeks in March are indicated to be bullish, through to 14.5K, and testing 15.5K. Whether the bullish effort is sustainable through past March remains to be seen.
I am optimistic for the NASDAQ into March, but weary as March wanes into April...
NVDV Important Levels To WatchLet's see how NVDA reacts to the support and resistance zones shown. It's currently struggling to move above the current resistance zone but if that breaks we can expect a move to the next resistance shown above in turquoise.
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NASDAQ under the microscopeWas just looking at the NASDAQ futures and the price actions over the market holiday yesterday amidst the hype and concerns over Russia-Ukraine issues.
In the NQ1! 4H chart, recent multiple failures of the 55EMA (4H and Daily) technically projected downside for the NASDAQ (amongst other equity indexes). There appears to be a cyclical fear pattern over the last month, and in this current cycle, it should peak down today. Am expecting a spike down type of peak, that tests the support, breaks it somewhat and then a likely rebound ensues (as previously posted that NQ1! should be testing support).
That's what the technicals are hinting to me anyways. There is a near support, but I am looking at possible spike down to 13,000 in the coming days.
Longer term still looks volatile, and longer term target is still lower for now. Absolutely plausible for a major DCB and then a massive turn of events.
I do have a date in mind though... 10 MAY 2022. Watch that date!
Stay safe and well!!!
channel breakout and strong support I had already created a setup for First Solar on 29.11.2021. This was stopped out with a loss of approx. 7%.
Now a new buying opportunity arises through chart analysis.
On February 14, the price formed an Inverted hammer (not perfect), which often appears at the end of a downtrend.
Yesterday's price formed a Hammercandle which could indicate rising prices.
First Solar is just about to leave a downtrend channel. Breakouts from such long channels (over 100 days) or ranges can result in very strong price movements.
The share has formed strong support at $68.
Therefore, there is much to be said for a rise in the price, and good risk management is also given, as the stop loss (SL) can be set below the support zone at approx.63 $.
However, I usually only set the stop loss in my mind. For me, the closing price in daily is decisive. If this closing price is below this zone, I close the trading position manually. It often happens, that the price triggers the SL intraday, only to rise again afterward. This is avoided in this way.
The price has potential up to $91 (take profit 1) or even up to $109 (take profit 2). This corresponds to a ratio of 2 (TP 1) and 3.9 (TP 2). The loss would only amount to approx. 13%. The profit, however, would be 27% or 50%. Therefore, I see a good buying opportunity.
What do you think?
I am very grateful for feedback :)
Deutsch
Am 29.11.2021 hatte ich bereits ein Setup für First Solar erstellt. Dieser wurde ausgestoppt mit ca. 7 % Verlust.
Nun ergibt sich eine neue Kaufgelegenheit durch Chartanalyse.
Am 14. Februar bildete der Kurs einen Inverted Hammer (nicht perfekt), der oft am Ende eines Abwärtstrends auftaucht.
Der gestrige Kurs bildete eine Hammercandle, welcher steigende Kurse anzeigen könnte.
First Solar ist gerade dabei einen Abwärtstrendkanal zu verlassen. Ausbrüche aus solchen langen Kanälen (über 100 Tage) oder Ranges können sehr starke Kursbewegungen zur Folge haben.
Die Aktie hat bei 68 $ einen starken Support gebildet.
Daher spricht viel für einen Anstieg des Kurses und ein gutes Risikomanagement ist ebenfalls gegeben, da der Stopp Loss (SL) unter die Supportzone bei ca. 63 $ gesetzt werden kann. Den Stop Loss setze ich jedoch meistens nur im Gedächtnis. Für mich ist der Schlusskurs im Daily ausschlaggebend. Ist dieser Schlusskurs unter dieser Zone, schließe ich den Trade manuell. Es kommt oft vor, dass der Kurs innerhalb des Tages den SL triggert, um danach wieder zu steigen. Dies wird so vermieden.
Der Kurs hat Potenzial bis 91 $ (Gewinnmitnahme 1), bzw. sogar bis 109 $ (Gewinnmitnahme 2).
Dies entspricht einer Ratio von 2 (TP 1) bzw. 3.9 (TP 2). Der Verlust würde nur ca. 13 % betragen. Der Gewinn jedoch bei 27 % bzw. 50 %. Daher ergibt sich für mich eine gute Kaufgelegenheit.
Was denkst du?
Für Feedback bin ich sehr dankbar :)
QQQ Tech - Neutral, No Strong Read YetThe social inefficiency of capitalism is going to clash at some point with the technological innovations capitalism engenders
and it is out of that contradiction that a more efficient way of organizing production and distribution and culture will emerge.
Every non-Marxist economic theory that treats human and non-human productive inputs as interchangeable
assumes that the dehumanisation of human labour is complete.
But if it could ever be completed, the result would be the end of capitalism as a system capable of creating and distributing value.
NASDAQ - time to test support this weekAs previously mentioned, the NASDAQ is bearish.
Now below the Weekly 55EMA, on bearish weekly candlesticks, the NASDAQ is likely to push to the 13500 support/ This support must hold.
Daily chart technicals are bearish for more downside...
Stay safe and well!
