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Technical_analysis

Bulls and Bears zone for 11-30-2022Market has been trading in a range second half of November which could be that traders are very cautious about this rally. Today, any test of yesterday's RTH session Fibonacci 50% range could provide direction for the day. Level to watch 3968 --- 3966 Reports to watch: US:Chicago PMI 9:45 AM ET US:JOLTS 10:00 AM ET US:Pending Home Sales Index 10:00 AM ET US:EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET US:Jerome Powell Speaks 1:30 PM ET US:Beige Book 2:00 PM ET
SP:SPX
by traderdan59
S&P 500 Bullish Outlook for 2023SP:SPX Inflation has peaked. Leading indicators point downwards. US Economy is relatively Strong. Soft Landing? Positioning and Sentiment is very bearish. FED is signaling a slower Pace + they are closer to a neutral rate. EPS have been downgraded so that there are room for surprises. Valuations look fair in a historical context. Bear Market trough was at -27%. (Median Dradown in a Bear Market) Correction might be over. Institutional Investors are net short or in cash. China is easing its covid 19 restrictions.
SP:SPXLong
by UnknownUnicorn11189415
2
#USDSGD long#midterm trading idea as you can see price recently test a very important static support area which has been tested 3 times before from above. price took out liquidity from the lowest low of 3 bounces and failed to close below an arrow that we have on the chart. also if you check weekly timeframe you can see also price tested a 200 EMA as well and didn't close below EMA neither. for taking this position: 1- we need a bullish engulfing candle which shows that bulls are back. 2- a bearish corrective to test supporting area 3- taking a position in direction of the primary trend which base on DOW theory is still intact and we still dealing with bullish market. it is important also to have a look at DXY chart to make sure it holds above 104.620 trading idea is invalid if: 1- price close below 104.620 on DXY on Daily timeframe 2- price close below 1.3659 on USDSGD on Daily timeframe
Long
by mohemati
#EURCHFanother similar selling opportunity like what we have on #EURJPY. again we have bearish impulsive which is followed by a corrective bullish move, showing that price have an intention of more downside move, but in order to do that price needs to take out liquidity from somewhere. so in order to short this pair following things need to happen: 1- price comes up to reach the arrow which also is a static resistance area 2- price fails to close above the arrow 3- lower timeframe price structure shift to bearish. ( in lower timeframe price fail to create HH or HL and turn downside)
Short
by mohemati
2
How to select effective indicators for your strategyNot all indicators are useful: most are not, and some are downright misleading. Previous posts and studies, such as LuxAlgo's(1), determined that effective indicators need to: 1) produce data to support the trader's decision-making process, not substitute it with automated strategies, 2) produce non-redundant infos. But how do you select indicators in practice? Here, I share my own step-by-step process to select effective indicators for your strategy. My approach is to use a two-stages process: 1) Expansion, 2) Contraction. This is the same process that happens in our brains when they develop, first there is neuronal and synaptic expansion, creating lots of new connections that are not necessarily efficient, then there is contraction, which weeds out useless, redundant or ineffective connections. Here, the idea is similar. ## Expansion: try all the indicators you want ## In the first stage, you just try any indicator that sounds like an interesting idea. The way you select the indicators is up to you, either it can be because it sounds like a good idea, or because it's in line with your main strategy (eg, a volatility indicator when your strategy is contrarian). Whatever criteria you choose, you should: 1) Remain open to new types of indicators potentially outside your main field, as they can broaden your horizons, 2) Remain skeptic of any claims of effectiveness until you test the indicators and see tha they work for yourself (in the second stage: contraction), 3) Study the indicator to understand how it works and why it works. Don't just blindly use an indicator without knowing what it actually represents precisely, otherwise you will get bit by its limitations and false positives at some point in the future, likely when you will have a lot of money on the table to lose! Once you have selected a set of indicators, or if you have reached the maximum number of indicators you can add in your TradingView plan (as it happens to me!), then you can go to the next step to weed indicators out. ## Contraction: drop everything that isn't directly useful to you## In the second stage, we will extensively test the indicators for ourselves, on the assets we are interested in, and in others as well, to "field test" them and see if they work in our strategy. Indeed, trading and investment rely on a balance between collecting enough infos and keeping it simple enough (KISS principle(2)) to support our systematic decision-making process, without information overload which can produce decision paralysis. The contraction/filtering process is more involved than the first stage, because you have to do the manual, dirty work of testing, it takes time, but this is the only way you can see whether the indicator work as intended and that they work for you. No two people will use the same indicator the same way as I explain in another post (3), so bear in mind that some indicators that may not work for someone else may work for you, and inversely an indicator that works for someone else's strategy may not for you, so the popularity of an indicator is no indication of effectiveness. Here is a step-by-step outline of my process, feel free to add more steps depending on your needs: 1) Signal-to-Noise test: test on weekly and daily. If the indicator can't be reliable, can't produce good signals with low false positives and high true positives on these long timeframes that are much less noisy than shorter timeframes, then they are useless. Some people claim that there are indicators that work exclusively on lower timeframes, I am not trading such smaller timeframes although I can trade down to 15min, so your mileage may vary, but I remain yet to be convinced that this is true. 2) Redundancy test. If you already found a good indicator that works reasonably well for you, then compare any new indicator to this "best" indicator as a benchmark reference point. This will allow to weed out indicators that cannot provide new, non-redundant data. For example, in the chart of this post, I study correlations, which I compare against the signals generated by my RSI+ (alt) indicator which I consider one of my most reliable. Of course, the signal is of a different kind, but it still provides me a reference point as to whether the correlations can provide me with an additional edge or whether I should just stick to using only the RSI+ indicator. In practice, if the new indicator(s) can provide new, non redundant data, as shown by slightly different predictions in different scenarios or maybe a bit earlier, then great, I keep them. If not, for example the indicator does provide reliable info but it would lead me to take the same decisions at the same time, or worse, later than my best indicator, then I remove it. 3) Generalizabiliy test. Test on multiple markets, on mutiple timeframes, to check generalizability: if it doesn't generalize, the model is overfit on one target market's history, and this likely won't even work for the future if this same market, ie, this is an issue often encountered for models made specifically for bitcoin or ethereum. 4) Misleading test. Use bar replay, to check how the indicator behaves in realtime: does it sprout a lot of false positive in realtime, or is it as useful and predictive, or better, in real-time than when used for historical bars? Or worst being repainting indicators rewriting the past, such as pivots or zigzag, they look super accurate aposteriori but it's only because they cheat (see tradingview pinescript fage about that), using bar replay will help you detect them 100% of the time. Bar replay is one of the best tools you have to test indicators, don't underestimate it. Yes, it's time consuming, but it's well worth it, and you'll become quicker and quicker to use it over time with experience. For more information about the different types of repainting indicators, there is an excellent article in the PineScript documentation, it's worth reading even for non-coders(4). 5) Grouping and intra-class comparison. Finally, group indicators on the same study, so you can quickly answer a question eg about volume and volatility, or about market cycles, etc by checking the adequate chart. Otherwise, if you mix indicators between different charts, it will take you longer to analyze and compare the various signals. Also this allows to compare similar indicators between them to see if they really are useful, non-redundant. For example, in the chart above, it's a Correlations grouped study, so I added almost exclusively correlations indicators; while the delta-agnostic and (pearson) correlation coefficient both provide non-redundant infos, Spearman correlation and Kendall correlation indicators are redundant, although they shouldn't (they should capture non-linear relationships, whereas Pearson can only capture linear ones), their results aren't any different in practice with the pearson correlation coefficient in terms of significant signals they generate that would change my decision process, so we could drop two out of these three correlation coefficients, which would unclutter our chart without losing any data. ## Wrapping-up: continually refine your indicators ## At the end of the day, it's important to continually try to adapt to the markets. Indicators can continue working, while others may fail, or in the end you find them too difficult to use in practice with your strategy. Your strategy may also evolve over time, and so your indicators should too. Don't ever feel attached to your indicators, you can revisit and question their utility at anytime, and you can go through the steps above again, and drop any indicator at anytime, even if they were useful before, what matters is whether they are still useful now. There is also a next step for those who are open to learn programming: creating your own indicators. Not so much to create unique opportunities, although they might, but to better understand the market. You should view indicators as a way to better understand some facet of the market, indicators answer the specific questions their authors wanted to find an answer for. So by using indicators of other authors, you are reading the solutions to others questions. But you can also form your own questions, and then the next logical step is to develop your own indicators to find your own answers. And hopefully share them under open-source, so that we can all learn together (and this likely won't impact your profitability, to the contrary, as I explain elsewhere!(3)). In summary, we can quote Bruce Lee, who described a very similar process for his mastery of martial arts as he taught his own named Jeet Kune Do: "Absorb what is useful, reject what is useless, add what is essentially your own." I hope this post was useful to you, and if you have an idea of a criterion or a step you use to select indicators that I didn't list above, please share it in the comments! Enjoy, Trade Safely! Tartigradia (1): Technical indicators: what is useful and what isn't , by LuxAlgo (2): en.wikipedia.org (3): Why my indicators are open-source, and why yours should be too , by Tartigradia (4): Repainting — Pine Script™ v5 User Manual v5 documentation
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by tartigradia
4Triangles,Resistance,HedgePoint,Supports & Target with 4$ ruleGuy's In this (D) Chart my targets are shown with 4Triangles, Resistances, Hedge point & Supports I see my targets will hit because (D) Chart have touched the support 3 times without touching the upper band of BB, and at the same time RSI & MACD is also favouring it. if you see RSI after it got overbought at 81.46 on 8thMarch2022 from their it came back to 23.50 & bounce back, and after that 3 times it stayed above without testing any of these 26.41, 35.70 & 40 Macd took conversion on 20th July2022 which started from 34.85 and till today it didn't tested any of its drops. So, these builds up hope that, we are in slow bullish trend which can touch R1 - 1st Tp 1729 R2 - 2nd Tp 1765 R3 - 3rd Tp 1808 And to be at safe side, i set Hedge Point of 1677 as my entry point for Bullish side, which is 2020 support. if the price plays below 1677, I will hedge my trade and keep it as it is, until it come back to my entry point. or i will release my Hedge on any of the below given supports based on upcoming trend analysis S1 1608 S2 1587 S3 1564 My Target is R1,R2,R3, which will be above the hedge point of 1677. Regarding 4$ rule, pls scroll down to my previous published charts, you will find it in Idea Titles.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by zararshahid
6
$DOGE - Sitting at very Crucial SupportHello my Fellow TraderZ, On last two occassions I have made my statements about $DOGE #DOGECOIN on both the Shorter & the Higher TFs which eventually played out as well. So, I'm up here again with the another analysis of $DOGE. Currently, $DOGE is sitting at the important level of Support on DTF. Bounce here is expected, if happens so we are going to test the upper Resistance once again. If the current Support breaks, look the gap towards the next Support Area which is ~ 26%, which is more likely if #BTC decides to test the mark of $19200. In short we have the opportunities to LONG & SHORT as well just by playing the Levels. Happy Trading Fam. CHEERS!!!
by TRADER-GOKU
2
$ETH - Following the similar PATTERN to Dig Down !Hello my Fellow TraderZ, If you see $ETH #ETHEREUM - it is similarly like the last time when the price got rejected by the Downward TL. If the Rising TL (RED ARROW) breaks, expecting the price to test atleast the support level of $1420-1370. This move likely be supported by the Bearish Divergence formed on RSI on 4 HTF. This is looking obvious also because after breaking the level recently price never came back to retest the level. So this pullback could be Positive also. Invalidation level - breaking of $1650. CHEERS!!!
by TRADER-GOKU
1
$CHZ - Ready for the Kick SHOTHello my Fellow TraderZ, As FIFA World Cup is approaching closer, keep all the Football or the Fan Tokens in your radar. They will go insaneously popping up out of nowhere. $CHZ #CHILIZ is one of them. Look, $CHZ is forming class Inverse H&S on DTF. Though it is currently at the confluence of Resistance Zone of Horizontal R + Neckline of Inv. H&S, I'm bidding this one to break and go high after a slight pullback. Either wait for the Break and retest or coming to the Support. CHEERS!!!
Long
by TRADER-GOKU
5
$CRV - Bull Flag BreakoutHello my Fellow TraderZ, I must say mini- #DEFI season is going on at the moment. Just look at $CRV #CURVEFINANCE - beautifully created the Bull Flag and consolidated inside the range for nearly a month or two and finally breaking out that too with the VOLUME . Currently, the breakout is being followed by the retest. I'm anticipating the price to complete another UP to give ~ 20-25% . If #BITCOIN breaks out 22.7k then the freeway to $CRV to test the July High. CHEERS FAM .
Long
by TRADER-GOKU