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Tdsequential

Bitcoin: We have a great short term opportunityDear all, this is a year-to-date chart (daily candlesticks) which relies on a simple combination of two factors to predict where we are headed short-term with Bitcoin. Though we are in a downtrend with the 20 day MA below the 50 and the 50 below the 200 I am fairly confident we are headed up short-term. By using a combo of bullish MACD crossovers and TD sequential analysis we see something is happening for the fourth time this year: a bullish MACD crossover (represented by green elliptical's in the MACD rectangle below the chart); and a green 2 (denoted by a orange downward facing arrow), following a red 9 that preceded it by several days. In two of the three previous times this has happened this year Bitcoin has seen relatively good gains in the days that followed but mid-March was an exception to that rule. Make sure to watch Bitcoin should you choose to go long at this point (remember the current MACD crossover is probably imminent but could fail), use your own technical analysis to determine your exit (you could also study the numerical TD sequences on my chart), and use a stop-loss to protect your investment. Good luck, questions and criticisms welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by TNasr
4
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 168)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to get my complete trading strategy and click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below! 1 day: < $5,750 | 1 week: bounce from $4,975 | 1 month predictions: < $5,000 by 9/5 Previous analysis /position: “If you were not expecting this sell off today then it is time to take a deep breath and make some decisions. I firmly believe that this is only the beginning, especially in regards to the alts.” / Short ETH:USD | ETH:BTC | BCH:BTC | ADA:BTC Patterns: Descending triangle | 1h bear flag Horizontal support and resistance: S = $5,864 | R = $6,182 BTCUSDSHORTS: Broke through major resistance Funding Rates: longs receive 0.1328% 12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 = -8.34% | 26 = -12.53% 50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = -12.96% | 128 = -20.26% Volume: Starting to pick up with sell off, still hasn’t made local high FIB’s: 0.382 = $5,278 | 0.5 = $5,940 Candlestick analysis: 4 hr inverted hammer Ichimoku Cloud: Finally got the bearish TK’ Cross that we’ve been waiting for. TD’ Sequential: $6,421 TDST held as resistance | R-2 < R-2 following a 4 day correction Visible Range: Just fell below point of control (POC) from the past 24 hours at $6,016. Low volume nodes below $6,000 BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = +/- 0 | 24h = -4.88% | 1w = -10.86% | 2w = -21.15% | 1m = -2.84% Bollinger Bands: Looks like bulge is starting on daily. Trendline: Connects 7/31 and 8/7 Daily Trend: Bearish Fractals: Down at $6,005 just broke. Will finally create a new up fractal at $6,551 after today’s candle closes. This will allow stops to be moved down. On Balance Volume: Broke down 2018 support ADX: ADX starting to angle upward after supporting 25 Chaikin Money Flow: Broke down -0.176 support RSI (30 setting): =40.55 and just broke down support Stoch: Making bearish re cross below 20. I learned from @CryptoCore that crypto usually moves the strongest/fastest when oscillators get stuck in overbought/oversold zones. Summary: The BTCUSDSHORT chart just entered extreme over bought zones and is going for a re test of the all time high. Combined with the funding rates being abnormally high (longs receive 0.1328%) is a strong indication that we should get a squeeze sooner rather than later. However, the bearish momentum is picking up and people are starting to panic as new lows are made. Watch for us to take out the low at $5,750 then spend < 6 hours at those price levels before a face melting short squeeze takes the price back to $7,000 - $7,200. The potential of a short squeeze is a great reason why I am not short Bitcoin. If BTC gets a strong squeeze it should cause the alts to sell off even harder vs their BTC ratio. You will know that this isn’t going to happen if the selling volume creates a new local high after we take out $5,750. If that happens then we should fall straight to $4,950 in < 6 hours. If I was not in a position I would be strongly considering sell the breakdown of $5,75 in combination with the red 2 below a red 1 on the daily - however due to the chances of a short squeeze I would pass and hope to sell the dead cat bounce.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC DAILY UPDATE (day 167)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to get my complete trading strategy and click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below! Previous analysis /position: “If bulls can breakthrough $6,500 resistance then I will be starting to sweat my positions a little bit. Now that I am fully positioned it is time for the hardest part: waiting and doing nothing.” Short ETH:USD | ETH:BTC | BCH:BTC & ADA:BTC Short term predictions: 1 day: <$5,975 | 1 week: Bounce off $5,000 > Reject $5,975 | 1 month predictions: Breakdown $5,000 on or before 9/5 Patterns: Descending triangle Horizontal support and resistance: S = $6,100 & $5,975 then $4,950 BTCUSDSHORTS: Forming bull flag under resistance, expecting new ATH' Funding Rates: longs receive 0.0268% (will need it) 12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 = -6.33% | 26 = -10.42% 50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = -9.84% | 128 = -17.12% FIB’s: If start from 7/24 sell then: 0.5 = $5,811 | 0.618 = 0.5 | 0.382 = $5,147 Candlestick analysis: Bearish engulfing following the daily reversal candles. Ichimoku Cloud: Still hasn’t made bearish TK’ Cross. TD’ Sequential: Price flip on daily. R-2 < R-1 on weekly. Visible Range: Point of control over last 24 hours = $6,316 | Time to fill the gap from $4,300 to $6,000! BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = +/- 0 | 24h = -1.76% | 1w = -10.15% | 2w = -19.57% | 1m = +/- 0 Bollinger Bands: Haven’t started to bulge just yet. Room to fall on daily & weekly. Trendline: Connect 7/31 to 8/7. Once 1 month low is taken out (currently testing) then expect a new trend to develop (sharper decline) Daily Trend: bearish Fractals: UP = $8,317 | DOWN = $6,084 On Balance Volume: pulling back sharply ADX: Daily ADX starting to angle upward after supporting 25. Indicates that the sell off has only just begun. Chaikin Money Flow: Seems to be falling at the sharpest angle we have ever seen (Bitfinex) RSI (30 setting): Daily bear flag at 40 Stoch: Getting stuck below 20 where the stongest sell offs can occur. Summary: If you were not expecting this sell off today then it is time to take a deep breath and make some decisions. I firmly believe that this is only the beginning, especially in regards to the alts. The alts are selling off, but the real fear hasn’t set in yet. That will happen when/if BTC' breaks down $5,975. If you are not in position then do not chase! Bitcoin' is still trading above $6,100 and the weekly red 2 trading under a red 1 is providing an entry. I would feel comfortable with a stop at $6,576. However if that is your plan then first ask yourself the following question: “what stopped you from doing it over the weekend?”
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
3
WTI Long Entry #3Previous analysis /position: Did not like divergences in buying volume/pressure. However volume profile showed too little resistance built up from here to $90 to make me change my plan. Maxed out my position when the green 2 traded above a green 1. Long from $68.09 Patterns: Pitchfork. Bull flag on the 1 hour chart. Horizontal support and resistance: Attempting to turn $70 resistance into support. 9 & 21 EMA’s (calculate % difference): Even with price and getting ready to make bullish crossover. 50 & 200 MA’s: 50: +1.21% 200: Equal with price and just started to angle back upward. FIB’s: 0.382 coming up at $71 - $73 depending on how you draw it. Do not expect it to be a problem because it was already violated on last pump. Candlestick analysis: Nice bullish engulfing on the 12h. Ichimoku Cloud: Daily: Recent bearish TK’ Cross. Bullish kumo twist. Price above cloud. Just re entered 12h cloud and it is showing good support at $69.50 TD’ Sequential: Green 4 on the daily. Green 2 below a green 1 on the monthly. Visible Range: Largest volume profile at $69.10 over last 24 hours. Largest volume at $69.20 over last 10 days. Very significant volume at $69.18 and $70.4 - $71.70. Very little volume above $72.60. Bollinger Bands: Wicked off weekly MA. Daily MA at $71.40. Trendline: Pitchfork starting in June of 2017 Daily Trend: Bullish Fractals: DOWN: $67.26 UP: $74.75 On Balance Volume: Coming up with price on daily. Large bear divergence on weekly. Bear div’ on monthly. Chaikin Money Flow: Higher low after supporting > 0.05 on weekly. Trending for a 0.0 - 0.05 retest on daily. If it goes below 0 it would be very significant. Conclusion: Still feel uncomfortable with the bearish divergences in the buying pressure/volume. However, everything is still going according to plan. I picked $67.50 as the lowest this pullback would go and got filled very close to the local low. I would have like to see a stronger rally after the green 2 traded above a green 1 but I am very glad to see us back above $70. There is currently a bull flag forming on the 1 hour chart as we attempt to turn prior resistance into support and that could provide a good opportunity for an entry in the next few hours. The 9 and 21 EMA’s are also posturing for a bullish crossover and that could provide a good entry in the next 24 - 48 hours. I am already fully positioned myself. Stop loss could be set at $62.18 or $66.53 depending on leverage and risk appetite.
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
3
Descending Triangle + Inverted A & E could = Doom for ETH:BTCI believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to get my complete trading strategy and click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below! Previous analysis/position: Have been thinking/tweeting about shorting it Patterns: Descending triangle on weekly with target of 0.002. Can kind of see an inverted h&s on daily but do not give it credence Horizontal support and resistance: R = 0.058 | S = 0.05 12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 is currently acting as resistance | 26 = -5% 50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = -12.3% | 128 = -19.71% | Recent death cross FIB’s: Not very helpful, but could see 0.382 at 0.06 Candlestick analysis: Hanging men from two and three days ago should provide fractal/stop loss Ichimoku Cloud: Fully bearish with Tekan-Sen acting as resistance | Weekly cloud is at 0.019 TD’ Sequential: 9 on the buy setup and 13 on the buy countdown on the 3d. R-9 on the weekly with a R-2 > R-1 | Not very helpful on daily Visible Range: Point of control over last 24h = 0.0574 | POC over last 5 days = 0.0578 | POC over last month = 0.05688 | POC over last year = 0.0715 Bollinger Bands: MA acting as resistance on daily. Near bottom band on weekly. Trendline: On weekly connect 1/29 to 5/14. Daily Trend: Chop (up on the day) Fractals: UP = 0.0587 | DOWN = 0.054 On Balance Volume: Very flat in 2018. Putting OBV on top we can see that volatility is on the horizon. This is confirmed with the normal volume indicator, has been extremely low since spike in Dec of 2017. Expecting another spike in volume soon. ADX: Daily ADX = 52 which indicates the need to range while it returns to 20 | Weekly ADX created a higher low and had a recent bearish cross. Indicates plenty of room to trend (unlike daily) Chaikin Money Flow: On weekly it is > 0.2 and climbing fast | Bouncing sharply from -0.03 on daily. RSI (30 setting): Bouncing off 30 on daily. Recently fell below 50 on weekly. Stoch: Oversold on weekly, angling for a bullish cross. Recent buy signal on 3d (has been a very good signal in this bear market). If it resists 20 then it could be ready to dump hard. Approaching overbought zones on the daily. Summary: Originally I wanted to short right now due to risk:reward provided by most recent up fractals. However I am going to hang tight due to: Stochastic on the 3d Daily, 3d and Weekly TD' Sequential Stop order is set at 0.0524 to open a short as soon as the triangle breaks down. Watching for 1-4 candle correction on the daily to provide a very favorable entry. If we retest the top of the triangle then I will be opening the full position.
Short
by Sawcruhteez
Higher lows for the first time since December?????????????With stochastic being so low, and TDseq showing perfect candle #9 sitting at an important support, followed by a good green candle with acceptable Volume we can hope for a higher lows formation (based on closing daily price, for the first time since Dec that the downtrend started. If price can keep going up and breaking the $6800 are this will happen, and we might finally see higher highs, which will be a huge confirmation of the rally starting and fresh money coming in probably!!! If price cant pass ~$6800 it can go down to below $6000, not that it would happen for sure if price cant pass ~$6800 but there is chance of this happening. Educational: TDseq indicator gives candles numbers, and indicates the trend, red numbers for downtrend and green for uptrends. Look at the previous rally and downtrend we had! Yep, almost a perfect 1-9 counting in both uptrend and downtrend, indicating that happened so fast, and there was such a strong trend. To me having a strong uptrend, even minor, followed by a strong downtrend, doesn't seem to be normal. I believe there is a mix of manipulation and emotions (FOMO and Panic sell), this helps to get rid of emotional investors (referred to as weak hands) which helps to have a healthy rally in the future. So the most important thing right now is if the price can break ~$6800 area and stay above it or not. Remember that "The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient." Garyreza (@Analytca)
BITMEX:XBTLong
by garyreza
BTC DAILY UPDATE (day 163) I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to get my complete trading strategy and click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below! Previous analysis /position: Perfected 9 on the TD' buy setup. “If you are not in a position then I would strongly advise against opening a short right now. If we do get a bounce then it will provide a great selling opportunity.” Patterns: Channel Horizontal support and resistance: weak S: $6,250 | weak R: $6,500 | Strong R: $6,800 BTCUSDSHORTS: At 28,500 resistance. Will it create a new local high? 53% long: 47% short Funding Rates: Shorts pay long 0.1016% 12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 = -8.44% | 26 = -10.16% 50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = -6.67% | 128 = -14.73% FIB’s: 0.236 = $5,920 | 0.382 = $8,496 Candlestick analysis: Bullish harami on daily Ichimoku Cloud: Cloud is at $6,800 and still has a bullish TK’ Cross TD’ Sequential: Bouncing off 9, expecting a 1-4 candle correction | 4th candle correction after the weekly 9 is almost complete Visible Range: Point of control over last 24 hours is $6,367 | High volume node $6,480 | POC over last 5 days is $6,950 with high volume node at $6,500 | POC over last month = $7,440 with low volume node at $6,800 BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = +2.55% | 24h = +/- 0 | 1w = -14.17% | 2w = -21.17% | 1m = -3.49% Bollinger Bands: Bouncing off bottom daily band. 3d and weekly still have plenty of room to fall. Trendline: Channel starting on 7/31 Daily Trend: Bullish Fractals: DOWN = $6,079 | UP = $8,289 On Balance Volume: Falling much harder and faster than price ADX: Weekly: ADX is bouncing off an all time low with -DI and +DI diverging in a bearish manner. Indicates that some serious volatility is on the horizon. Daily: Watching for ADX to make a higher low. Chaikin Money Flow: Bull div’ in weekly is very surprising. Bouncing off -0.1 on daily. RSI (30 setting): Daily = 43 | Weekly = 48.78 Stoch: Lower lows and lower highs on weekly with recent bearish cross. 3d still has plenty of room to fall. Daily buy signal. Summary: Same sentiment as yesterday. Still wouldn’t recommend opening a short at the current price. I would at least wait until it tests the down trend and horizontal resistance at $6,700. Even that could be premature based on the short term EMA’s. We will re test the 12 EMA before falling further. That may come after days of consolidation or a quick bounce. Either way that is what I would be waiting for personally. Expecting a 1-4 day correction following the daily red 9 and that is also right in line with the weekly finishing it’s 4 candle correction. This weekend will likely be the time to start selling. Until then we wait. “Don’t fire until you see the white of their eyes” - Col. William Prescott
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
1
BTC DAILY UPDATE (day 162)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to get my complete trading strategy and click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below! Previous analysis /position: “Expecting sharp reversal to the downside if we cannot break $7,150 in the next 12 - 24 hours” | Short ETH:USD from $450 Patterns: 1 hour bear flag. Believe that the Wyckoff accumulation that was discussed yesterday is now invalid due to how far we have pull back from $8,500. Horizontal support and resistance: weak S: $6,400 | strong S: $5,900 - $6,100 | Weak R: $6,500 | Expecting strong R at $6,800 BTCUSDSHORTS: Continue to build and starting to approach overbought zones. 54% long: 46% short. Surprised this is still favoring longs after yesterday’s sell off. Funding Rates: shorts pays longs 0.0561% 12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 = -11.32% | 26 = -12.59% | Just made bearish cross on the daily. 50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = -9.28% | 128 = -16.95% FIB’s: 0.236 = $5,920 | 0.382 = $8,496 Candlestick analysis: Bearish marubozu forming on the daily Ichimoku Cloud: Fell below the daily cloud. Tenkan-Sen is angling down sharply for a bearish crossover. TD’ Sequential: Perfected 9 on the buy setup Visible Range: Point of control over last 24 hours = $6,424 | POC over last 5 days = $7,000 | High volume nodes at $6,500 when looking back 3 months. BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = -4.71% | 24h = -11.66% | 1w = -17.59% | 2w = -23.09% | -7.14% Bollinger Bands: Below bottom band on daily. $5,396 is bottom band on weekly which I expect the price to test at some point. Trendline: Can fit the 1 hour chart into a nice trend Daily Trend: Bearish af' Fractals: Next down fractal is $6,078 | Up remains at $8,280 On Balance Volume: Coming down harder and faster on daily. ADX: ADX is testing 25 for support and still angling down. Would have expected it to move up with this most recent sell off. -DI and + DI are starting to diverge in a bearish manner on daily and weekly. Chaikin Money Flow: Div' in weekly as it continues to climb upward. < -0.05 on daily RSI (30 setting): Expect it to continue falling to 37 - 40 on daily. Weekly at 48.36 (hasn’t been below 48 since 2015) Stoch: Bearish cross on weekly, daily failed to make a bullish cross and just hit the lowest reading since 2011. Summary: Perfected buy setup on the TD' Sequential is the most important indicator to me right now. Expected a 1-4 candle correction to the upside to follow the daily close. If you are not in a position then I would strongly advise against opening a short right now. If we do get a bounce then it will provide a great selling opportunity. I am expecting strong resistance at $6,800 and do not think the bounce will exceed that price. If you opened a short when I recommended at $8,160 then today could be a good time to cover 25% - 50% of the position.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
BTC DAILY UPDATE (day 161)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to get my complete trading strategy and click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below! Previous analysis /position: Seeing indications that $6,800 would breakdown (Wyckoff Distribution and bear flag) but having a hard time believing that we would break down a major area of support after being oversold. Short ETH:USD from $450. Patterns: Potential 6 month Wyckoff Accumulation on the daily (as pointed out by @CarpeNoctom). Horizontal support and resistance: R = $7,250 and $7,500 | S = $6,800 BTCUSDSHORTS: Broke out of downtrend and building fast. Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01% 12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 = -3.8% | 26 = -3.41% | Will they make a bearish crossover? 50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = acting as support | 128 = -6.17% FIB’s: 0.236 = $5,920 | 0.382 = $8,496 Candlestick analysis: Hammer and spinning top at support. Ichimoku Cloud: Finding support at the bottom of the cloud. Kijun-sen acting as resistance at $7,100 TD’ Sequential: Red 8 at support. Visible Range: Point of control over last 24 hours = $6,940 | Low volume nodes at $7,000 have been filled. Still significant resistance above at $7,140. POC over last 5 days = $7,257 with resistance built up to $7,500. POC over last month = $7,438. When looking back 1 year there is resistance stacked from $7,100 - $8,200 BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = +2.46% | 24h = +1.69% | 1w = -8.15% | 2w = -15.51% | 1m = +7.63% Bollinger Bands: Finding support from bottom daily band. Below MA on weekly. Trendline: N/A Daily Trend: Chop Fractals: UP = $8,300 | DOWN = $6,083 On Balance Volume: Bear div' on daily. OBV created a lower low while BTC’ has climbed 1.32% ADX: -DI > +DI, ADX getting ready to cross below 25 which would indicate no trend. Over the past year it has not stay below 20 for long. Chaikin Money Flow: Found support at 0, will it be able to cross back above 0.05? RSI (30 setting): Expect it to resist 50 on daily and weekly. Stoch: Thought %K was going to cross below %D by now on weekly. Buy signal on daily. Summary: When looking at the 1 hour chart we can see some resistance at $7,150. If BTC’ cannot break through that price in the next 12-24 hours then I am expecting a sharp reversal to the downside. If it can get through $7,150 resistance then there will be more waiting at $7,250 and $7,500. The Wyckoff Accumulation that @CarpeNoctom pointed out does give me some concern. That is the only bullish pattern/indicator/chart that I am giving credence to. If that is real then this would be the last throwback before the markup phase starts. For a number of reasons I am still holding onto my $4,200 - $4,500 target and will continue to be a confident bear for the foreseeable future. I am viewing $8,500 as the largest area of resistance, due to the VRPR. If we can break through that area on high volume then I will reconsider my stance.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
2
Intermediate Trading Strategy - Part 4In the previous posts we discussed profit taking in different markets, profit targets, trailing stop losses, risk:reward, time horizons and how to identify a trend. Starting with part 1 is highly recommended. Best Indicators I have noticed that some indicators work really well when the asset is at or near all time highs and other indicators work best when the market is recovering or in a bearish trend. If ATH', or ATH' territory Tyler Jenks’ Hyperwaves: Help to identify areas of support in parabolic markets. Also indicates when the parabolic move is exhausted (phase 4 or phase 3 breakdown). Hyperbolic burst: Use 30 period RSI. If >/= 70 then parabolic status. Prefer week and daily to be > 70 with W > D. If both weekly and daily are > 70 then in a Parabolic High Risk (PHR) state. If Weekly and Daily > 80 then Extreme Parabolic High Risk (ePHR). Fractals/Parabolic SAR’s: Very useful for setting trailing stops and identifying a reversal in trend. Up fractals should not get broken in a down trend and down fractals should remain in tact while trending up. Ichimoku Cloud: Tenken-Sen serves as a high probability entry. Kumo twists can help identify the end of a trend. The cloud can act as support. I find it to be most useful as a way to identify no trade zones. This occurs when the price is inside the daily cloud. MA’s: Like 10MA - 50MA - 128 MA on the daily chart and the 7/30/50 on the weekly. If the 10 MA crosses the 50 then it is a good indication of upcoming consolidation and/or reversal. For Bitcoin' NVT: Most objective measurement we have to value the Bitcoin' blockchain. However, with the introduction of the Lightning Network and batching transactions I do not know if this will continue to work. For example: The blockchain could be getting used more but NVT could be showing the network as overvalued because there are less total transactions. If Bear Market or Recovery Horizontal support/resistance and/or FIB’s: Prior resistance turns into support. FIB’s can help identify major levels of support/resistance. Look for gaps that need to be filled. VRPR: Large volume profile on top = large resistance | Large volume profile below = large support | If gap in volume below price then high probability that the asset will retest that zone, a/k/a ‘fill the gap’. Patterns: Patterns can be very useful in identifying high probability entries and estimating profit targets. Candlesticks: Capitulation and Euphoria wicks are a very strong indication of a reversal. I like to look for reversal candlesticks to be in confluence with an area of support, such as a horizontal, trend or Ichimoku Cloud. Trendline: Can be very useful in identifying bottoms and catching trend reversals. If trend is violated and holds as resistance/support on a retest then it is a likely reversal. When the price is in a freefall using trendlines and/or hyperwaves can be useful in identifying key areas of support. Do not look for a reason to enter a trade, look for reasons to stay out! Anyone can find a reason to enter a trade, and anyone can come up with an eloquent explanation to make the trade sound profitable. When you are actively looking for reasons to take the other side of your position and are coming up empty then it is probably time to bet big and use a generous stop loss! Thanks for reading!
Education
by Sawcruhteez
4
WTF is happening - Part 3I talked almost about everything in long term in 1D and 3D ideas I just published. In terms of short term targets: As you see BB20 has been acting as a resistance for a while, pushing the price down, making it breaking MA50 and EMA200. We can see the DMI and Stochastic divergence, though its not a big one. I expect the price to try to break BB20, they will probably meet at ~$7000-$7100, if the price breaks it, we can hope for breaking the next targets (Red Dotted lines on the chart and MA50 and EMA200), but if BB20 act as a strong resistance again, there is a chance that it will push the price down, breaking the upper bond of the major support area that we have. As I said in previous idea, going into the major support area wont be good for short term at least, even may be for long term. In a nutshell: Wait for price to break BB20 (don't forget that every breakout needs confirmation) Remember that "The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient." Garyreza (@Analytca)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by garyreza
WTF is Happening - Part2I don't see any valuable information on 1D chart that I didn't talk about on my other post using 3D chart There is only this one: Stochastic is way below 20 and we have MA50 as support right now. These two should cause the price to hold and go up, not to mention we also have the upper bond of the major support area. Breaking this support area that we have and going further down is not probable, especially considering we should have get out of the downtrend soon. If we break this area and go down, depending on the next targets, it might take like years to see new ATH (All Time High). Also might be good to mention that TDSeq is predicting a turning point now, means this indicator is waiting for one to happen soo. In a nutshell, overall the price should not go below ~$6800, though we need a green candle with good volume and body to make sure this area is holding as support. Remember that "The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient." Garyreza (@Analytca)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by garyreza
BTC DAILY UPDATE (day 160)Previous analysis /position: Strong support at $6,800 and falling $1,250/15.21% over the last week led me to believe we should get a bounce to retest $7,250 - $7,500. Remain short ETH:USD from $450. Patterns: Wyckoff distribution with spring indicates that $6,800 is about to breakdown. 1h - 2h bear flags indicate that as well. Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,784 - $6,884 | weak R: $7,016 | strong R: $7,250 | $7,500 | $7,750 BTCUSDSHORTS: Back above 21,500. Currently testing 50 and 128 day MA’s. | 60% long: 40% short Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01% 12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12= -6.41% | 26 = -5.68% 50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = Currently acting as support | 128 = -8.13% FIB’s: 0.236 = $5,920 | 0.382 = $8,496 Candlestick analysis: If current daily candle trades below $6,880 it would be a bearish engulfing. 12h dragonfly and hammer (on top of 128 MA). Ichimoku Cloud: Wicks continue to piece the bottom of the daily cloud, but we still have not closed outside of it. Tenkan-Sen still diverging above the Kijun-Sen when I would expect them to be posturing for a bearish crossover. 12h cloud is bullish and currently acting as support. TD’ Sequential: R-2 < R1 on 3d | Daily R-7 | 12h R-7 Visible Range: Point of control over last 24h is $7,015 | POC over last 5 days is $7,551 with a low volume node between $7,000 and $7,325 | POC over last month is $7,451 | POC over last year is $8,258 BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = -2.02% | 24h = -0.57% | 1w = -14.89% | 2w = -16.54% | 1m + +6.65% Bollinger Bands: Testing bottom band on daily while the band starts to angle downward. Below MA on weekly. Testing MA on 3d for support. Trendline: N/A Daily Trend: Chop Fractals: UP = $8,284 | DOWN = $6,068 On Balance Volume: Moving down faster than the price, indicates smart money getting out. ADX: 1d - 1w are bearish w/o any trend present. Chaikin Money Flow: Dumped from 0.2 to < 0.05 in the last week. In agreeance with OBV. RSI (30 setting): 1d and 1w are < 50 Stoch: %K is finally crossing below %D on weekly. This is establishing a lower high. Daily is cooled off and back in oversold zone. Summary: 1h Wyckoff distribution (w spring) and/or the bear flag are indicating that $6,800 should breakdown before we get a bounce to $7,250 - $7,500. Personally I am having a hard time believing that we will breakdown the major level of support after being oversold and still think we will get a bounce. The 12h reversal candles above the 128 MA would agree with me. The 3d TD’ Sequential and the daily cloud are potentially disagreeing with me. The TD’ is providing an entry with a Red 2 below a Red 1. If we close a daily candle below the cloud then it would also be suggestive of an entry. I would pass on the TD’ entry due to being on a daily Red 7. I would pass on the kumo breakdown due to the bullish TK' Cross. If not in a position then I would wait patiently for a bounce and would be prepared to sell the shit out of it. Thanks for reading!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
1
BTC DAILY UPDATE (day 158)Previous analysis /position: Trading below the volume profile point of control with a 1 month look back period gave me very little confidence in a bounce, gave it a 15% chance. Thought the most likely was to range between $7,250 - $7,500 and form a h&s pattern. Short ETH from $450. Patterns: Nice Wycoff distribution on the 1 hour. Pointed out that we were in the re distribution phase yesterday after re testing the broken down support. 2nd markdown came this morning. Horizontal support and resistance: Found support at $7,000 but it should be weak. Strong support = $6,800 and strong resistance should be waiting at $7,400 - $7,500 BTCUSDSHORTS: Starting to build after finding a double bottom at 17,500. Currently testing trend resistance Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.0483% 12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 = -7,89% | 26 = -5.74% | Both are angling down sharply 50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = Current support | 128 = -7.52% FIB’s: 0.236 = $5,920 | 0.382 = $8,496 Candlestick analysis: Dragon fly, hammers and inverted hammers on 1h show support holding strong at $7,000 Ichimoku Cloud: Just pierced bottom of the cloud, and now it appears to be providing support. C clamp on 5 day cloud. TD’ Sequential: Price flip on 3d. R-5 on daily. Visible Range: Point of control over last 24h = $7,375 | POC over last 5 days = $7,528 | POC over last month = $7,444 | POC over last year = $8,190 BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = -5.94% | 24h = -4.94% | 1w = -14.72% | 2w = -5.08% | 1m = +6.9% Bollinger Bands: Bottom band on daily = $6,791 | MA on 3d = $6,931 | Back below MA on weekly. Bottom band hanging around $5,500. Trendline: N/A Daily Trend: Bearish Fractals: Just took out another daily down fractal. Up remains at $8,367. Next down = $6,085 On Balance Volume: If price fell as hard as daily OBV then we would be back at $6,300. ADX: -DI just crossed above +DI on weekly. Recent cross on daily with ADX > 25 (trending down) Chaikin Money Flow: Finally created a lower low on daily. RSI (30 setting): Just crossed below 50 on daily and weekly. Stoch: Recent sell signal on 3D. Daily re approaching oversold territory. Weekly still looks healthy Conclusion: Yesterday I expected a fall straight to $6,800 if we broke down $7,250 support and was surprised to see the reversal candles on the 1 hour chart. The 50 day MA and psychological support coming from the round number is the only reason why I can see the price finding support here. Conversely the daily cloud could provide a short sale entry in the very near future. We briefly pierced the bottom a bearish cloud, and now it appears to be providing support. However be careful here because we do not have a bearish TK' cross (yet) and we are near significant support. The daily TD' Sequential indicates 4 days left to the downside. If we get a red 9 at $6,800 then a bounce would be highly probable. If not in a position then I would pass on selling a kumo breakdown and wait to sell the bounce from $6,800 - which should take us back to $7,250 - $7,500.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
1
BTC DAILY UPDATE (day 157)Full Disclosure: I have been drinking and am well above the legal limit. Previous analysis /position: Expecting long squeeze to push us down to $7,250 due to long:short ratio with a 30% chance of a rally due to C Clamps on the 1h and 2h Ichimoku Clouds. Patterns: 1h fits into a Wyckoff Distribution with a throwback, could be getting ready for Re-Distribution. Possible h&s forming if we continue to range between $7,300 - $7,500 Horizontal support and resistance: R: $7,528 S: $7,324 BTCUSDSHORTS: Continues to form lower highs and lower lows. Surprised that shorts still are not starting to pick up. 62%:38% long:short ratio. Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01% 12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 = -3.39% and angling down sharply | 26 = -0.77% 50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = + 7.04% and angling upward sharply | 128 = -2.29% FIB’s: 0.236 = $5,920 | 0.382 = $8,496 | 0.5 = $10,677 Candlestick analysis: 12h inverted hammer on top of the 50 MA after a golden cross. Ichimoku Cloud: Still inside the daily cloud. Support from Kijun-Sen (Tenken-Sen angling downward sharply) TD’ Sequential: R-5 < R-4 after topping on an R-9. 2nd candle correction after an R-9 on the 12h. Visible Range: 24 hour point of control = $7,385 | 5d POC = $7,537 | 1m POC = $7,433 *** | 1y POC = $8,161 BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = -0.81% | 24h = -1.57% | 1w = -9.09% | 2w = +1.29% | 1m = +14.01% Bollinger Bands: Below MA on daily and weekly, still above on 3d. Trendline: Retesting trendline that connects March 5th and May 5th. Daily Trend: Bearish Fractals: DOWN = $7,202 | UP = $8,281 On Balance Volume: Trending down with price ADX: +DI just crossed under -DI with the ADX > 25, indicating a reversal in trend Chaikin Money Flow: Failed to turn 0.15 into support, now trending down w price RSI (30 setting): Still > 50 on daily and weekly Stoch: Re entering oversold zones on daily. Summary: We are now trading below the point of control when looking back 1 month. That means the majority of the volume, or resistance, is above us. If we do get a bounce above that level then I expect it to be brief. A head and shoulders forming on the daily would make a lot of sense. That would give us the chance to cool off from being oversold and it would also allow the bears to eat away at support. I don’t like being a bear (long term hodler) but I will continue to be as long as we are in a bear market. Would say there is a 15% chance we get a bounce to $7,800 - $8,000 and if we do it would provide a great selling opportunity. Thanks for reading!
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
1
A "SAFU" Bounce from the $7400 area?We have just made a lower low of $7657 since this move upwards with high selling volume and broken our February trend line (GREEN LINE) confirmed broken on lower TF which was working as support now turned resistance. We have horizontal support at $7400 plus the 30 EMA on the D TF which has been significant throughout this last bullish uptrend. Our TD buy setup on the 6H is on a red 8, so a 9 would be something to look out for as a reversal signal to this trade closer to $7400. Our monthly closes today so the bears could possibly put on more selling pressure as the time gets closer a $7400 or so would abolish a bullish engulfing candlestick on the monthly. A bounce from the $7400 area would probably take us back to test the $7750 resistance line before putting in yet another lower low "possibly". THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE I AM SHARING TO LEARN MORE. Please comment if you have any thoughts on how i can improve this. SAFU TRADING!!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by CannonMohamed
DASH testing critical long-term levelBITTREX:DASHBTC testing a critical level on the weekly chart this week. As you can see from the arrows, this level (black line) was tested multiple times before DASH had its massive breakout in 2017. Zooming in on the 12H time frame below...you can see how the 12H came down to this line on a Perfected Buy Set Up and then flipped before completing the Set Up (Bullish). Now trending back towards this level. Should it hold, will consider substantial long position.
Long
by Duffy08
1
BTC DAILY UPDATE (day 155) Previous analysis /position: Expecting a bounce from $7,650 to retest $8,000 and then strongly expected the drawdown to continue from there. Short ETH:USD from $450. Patterns: Lower high appears to be established at $8,500. Horizontal support and resistance: $7,500 support becoming resistance? BTCUSDSHORTS: Pulled back sharply from 21,377 resistance. Will they refuel at 18,000 support? 61% long indicates long liquidations haven’t really started yet. Expect many stop losses to be at $6,800 - $7,250. Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.1% 12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 = -3.54% | 26 = being tested for support | Both are starting to angle down. 50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = +9.26% | 128 = being tested for support FIB’s: 0.236 = $5,920 | 0.382 = $8,496 | 0.5 = $10,677 Candlestick analysis: Long wick on top of monthly closed it inside the trendline. Daily hanging man preceded sell off. Ichimoku Cloud: Bottom of cloud = $7,078 which is roughly in line with the top of the 12 hour cloud. Bearish TK cross on 4h. TD’ Sequential: Daily R-2 < R-1 is providing short sale entry | Visible Range: Point of control over last 24 hours = $7,536 | POC over last 5d = $8,170 | POC over last year = $8,050 BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = -0.58% | 24h = -3.35% | 1w = -8.21% | 2w = +/- 0 | 1m = +17.35% Bollinger Bands: Testing daily MA for support. Trendline: Retesting trendline that was broken on July 23rd. Daily Trend: Bearish Fractals: UP = $8,288 | DOWN = $7,207 On Balance Volume: Coming down w price ADX: +DI and - DI are getting ready to make bearish cross with ADX > 25 indicates upcoming bear trend. Chaikin Money Flow: Below 0.05 | Will it establish another higher low? RSI: Threatening to cross below 50 and daily and just fell below 50 on weekly. Stoch: Dumping on the daily. Still healthy on weekly. Conclusion: It appears like the price has fallen through another level of support without getting a bounce. That means bears are getting confident and bulls are becoming skittish. Red 2 below a red 1 is providing a short entry but we are still at what I’m viewing as an area of support. Anywhere from $7,250 - $7,500 could provide a bounce to $7,800 - $8,000. If you do enter a position right now then I would still put the stop above that area. I still believe that ETH is offering a better opportunity to short, click here for my analysis on it.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
1
Bitcoin | Proceed with CautionBitcoin has been on a beautiful Bull-run from $6200 since the 15th of July. As of today, we are topping around $8200. That's a beautiful profit if you were/ are in the trade. THE 9-DAY CHART: I'm showing you the '9-Day' chart to present my case for Bitcoin traders and hodlers to proceed with caution. I'm not a financial advisor, but looking at the technical analysis of the '9-Day' chart for a moment- You'll see the last bull-run in April reversed its trend on the closing of the '3' candle. And the bull-run back in February reversed its trend earlier on the closing of the '2' candle. THE DAILY CHART: I would consider this past bull run, as seen in the following picture, as an ideal trade. This 'daily' chart of this past bull-run is a good example of how a trend usually contains 9 candle's, according to TD-Sequential system, then pulls back to reconsolidate- before reversing or continuing its trend. THE WEEKLY CHART: The weekly chart, as seen in this following picture, is giving us a Green '2' ABOVE a Green '1'. And this is exactly what a "Bull", like myself, wants to see! OVERALL: I'm going to be very cautious over the next few days with Bitcoin. I could see a potential reversal coming soon if we can't break out of the resistance zone of $8175. If the '2' candle that we are currently on can close above the resistance point (in blue) around $8200-- The "bull-run" trend could continue. Happy Trading fellow Hodlers!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by the13thalien