USD/CHF price action: bullish momentum after SNB decisionThe Swiss National Bank's unexpected decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points to 0.5%, the largest reduction since January 2015, has sent the Swiss franc to its lowest value against the US dollar since November 2022. These aggressive cuts aim to bolster Switzerland's economy amidst rising unemployment and global uncertainties by making borrowing more affordable. Meanwhile, the USD/CHF pair has surged above 0.89019, driven by the franc's depreciation and the broader positive sentiment towards the US dollar, which remains strong despite a slight dip. The Federal Reserve's cautious optimism concerning US inflation and a robust labor market suggests a gradual pace of future rate cuts, supporting the dollar's strength relative to the franc. In the short term, if the SNB maintains its accommodative strategy while the Fed takes a measured approach, the USD/CHF's bullish momentum could persist. Traders should stay attuned to upcoming economic data and central bank communications, which will provide crucial insights into monetary policy shifts affecting the USD/CHF exchange rate.
Swissie
USD/CHF: Jordan’s Final Moves as SNB Chief Switzerland's Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August is forecast to show a year-over-year increase of 1.2%, down from 1.3% in July. On a month-over-month basis, CPI is expected to rise by 0.1%, rebounding from the prior month’s 0.2% decline.
The figures, due on Tuesday, come as Swiss National Bank (SNB) President Thomas Jordan recently acknowledged the challenges posed by the strong Swiss franc on the nation’s industry.
Speculation is mounting over whether the central bank will respond with a 50-basis-point rate cut in September or intervene in the currency markets to ease pressures.
Bear in mind, Jordan, who has steered the SNB for over a decade, will step down at the end of September 2024, marking the end of an era for Swiss monetary policy.
On the daily chart, we can see that USDCHF broke the August low last week. The near-term resistance is possibly around 0.8590,
AUDCHF: Will the SNB signal cuts?Of all the National Banks, analysts are expecting the SNB to be one of the first to cut, the CPI this week on Tuesday could indicate a cut is coming.
Looking at price action on this pair, we've broken out of the downward channel, albeit we've struggled ton break resistance, but equally we've retested the channel boundary multiple times and so far failed to break it, so this looks like we're in the region of a medium term reversal.
I'm looking for Buy entries on this pair, we need to break 0.58 to confirm the reversal, but I think there's longs to be had with LTF confirmations.
NZDCHF: Descending resistance linesSeeing this pair reject from either the current local resistance boundary or if not the longer term descending trendline.
I'm expecting NZD weakness in the coming week so monitoring LTF's carefully.
I believe we'll be dropping down from either 0.538 or 0.543, a break above this latter number could signify reversal.
USDCHF: Continuation to the downsideThe DXY had a bad week last week and I believe this could be the start of a more sustained downward trajectory.
Conversely Swissie has been on retracement for several weeks against most crosses, but we are seeing a broad recovery.
My view is we're continuing to the downside, so I'm getting in short with a LTF confirmation next week.
GBPCHF: Looking like a fake out and drop to meI see GBP as continuing to be weak, poor GDP data last week, hikes expected to be over, and expecting to see some CHF strength.
BoE interest rates this week, but with the market expecting hiking to be over, I don't think it matters what happens, sterling will fall.
We saw a move above my descending trendline, seeing this as possibly a fake out - we've broken back through my support, now resistance line which would suggest a fall back down to recent lows here.
CADCHF: Ready to go?Been watching this pair for a while, I'm noticing the Swissie generally weaken against it's crosses, many look ready for a reversal to me.
CADCHF has been trading in a range, we can see daily failures at the current level which suggests to me we're about to bounce up so I'm looking for a buy on LTF's.
I first posted this idea on the 18th October, it now looks like we're about ready to go!
GBPCHF: Retest incoming, then downWe've broken out of a long-standing sideways channel to the lower side, now bouncing off support to retest the broken channel.
I'm expecting a big dump in this paid once the retest is complete, UK economy vs Swiss economy, interest yields etc, no comparison.
The Swiss has been a stand-out performer against most crosses this year, GBP has been clinging on but I think we'll drop again soon.
✨ NEW: CADCHF ✨ UT (3D) ✨Shout out to @Oktane for this pair 😂
SLO @ 0.7750 ⏳
TP1 @ 0.7415 (shaving 25%)
TP2 @ 0.7100 (shaving 25%)
TP3 @ 0.6850 (shaving 25%)
TP4 @ 0.6633 (closing ALL Sell Orders)
ADDITIONAL INFO:
00:00 The Easiest Trend Ever
00:32 Curve Analysis
00:55 Only Short Opportunities
04:47 Extreme SLO
05:27 Shaving 25%, then closing @ TP3
06:00 A Possible Buy Opportunity?
07:30 Boost, Follow, Comment, Join
Short Term Swissie TradeWe have a 123 pattern on the smaller timeframes of the pair. The third move of the pattern displayed some unanticipated strength which throws a bit of doubt on the conviction of this idea. For this purpose, I've set the entry a few pips below the price it closed on Friday to actually get the price to compromise on the move down by going through one of the previous wave-up supports.
Manage your risk, the scenario offers a minimum 2 to 1 payout to the next low. Happy Trading :)
AUD/CHF could be headed for the April 2020 lowAUD/CHF is within an established downtrend on the daily chart, and the current dynamics present a divergent theme which could send it lower from here.
Yesterday closed with a bearish engulfing candle at its lowest level since April 2020. The moving average remain 'within order' and fanning out, and the 10-day EMA is now capping as resistance as prices try to accelerate away from the averages. The monthly S1 pivot sits around 0.5975 and the RSI is oversold, so we may see a period of consolidation or minor rebound from S1. But the bias remains bearish below 0.6100 and for an eventual move towards the April 2020 low.
CADCHF looking upCADCHF was in a big downtrend but major support zone around 0.67800 made price redirect up
The young Uptrend channel is evolving
Price has bounced today from the lower channel line at 0.68604 and is coinciding with the 50 EMA
So we are most likely waiting for the price to bounce higher up to the 0.692x area. Maybe further to 0.71
To add to this analysis, last week's Thursday and Friday Day candles rejected closes below the 0.69 or 0.688 high levels contributing to the Weekly TF close as a bullish engulfing candle with a positive growth twice the size of the previous week.
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I Like The BuyI like the buy setup for USDCHF. Just enjoyed the 3day swap long payment and boy is it paying well!
Positive swap long, classic break & retest setup, and NFP on the horizons, expecting a boost from consumer spending & christmas jobs created.
Lets go you good thing yeeeeehaw