USDCAD Top Down AnalysisWhatsup Fearless Traders! I hope you are all ready to have a great week. I will be hunting USDCAD opportunities this week. On the short term, I will look for sells if they present themselves, but overall I am looking for some medium term buying opportunities.
Have a great week and let's smash it!
Swingtrader
Price Action & Psychology - Pullback, Trend, SupportHello !
Key points :
Notable support zone
Pullback after breakout
Direction of trend
Volume spikes on uptrend
We've pulled back to an historical important zone, which acted as support. We're taking this trade after a breakout on high volume and wide range candles in the direction of the general trend.
Volume represents the number of shares traded on any given day (talking about a daily chart). So if on that spinning top (2) we've seen high volume, but prices didn't rise, this must mean that sellers were stronger.
I see a few clues here :
Those that bought on the previous resistance (1) and were stuck, sold
Profit-taking from the breakout (2)
The pullback made other traders sell
Considering the price action on the last 2 trading sessions, we see relative low volume and some indecision, we've reached a certain " balance ". This tells us that basically, most of the traders are waiting on the side lines.
What we're looking for here, before we take the trade, is volume . We wanna see buyers come into the market.
Thanks for reading and if you have suggestions or want to discuss the idea, just leave a comment, I'll be happy to answer.
***Disclaimer : This is not an advice to buy the stock. Please, be aware that trading is a matter of probabilities and that it only takes ONE trader to deny your trade.***
Breaking downtrendsSeems like price wants to fight back to a higher level, beware of possible Head&Shoulders. Good volume on the last bounce, buyers are getting control.
Possible Retracement Before ContinuationThis pair looks like it has a huge retracement due this week before continuing for the short. Retracement may end in the 1.79129 zone before the short continues. If not, we'll keep going up to the next zone above for a fresh to test the last lower high.
BULL TPs:
• 1.78192
• 1.79129
• 1.80512
BEAR TPS:
• 1.75881
• 1.75308
• 1.73815
• 1.72856
EURUSD Top Down AnalysisWhat's going on traders! Here is an update on how I'm seeing EURUSD now. I posted a top down analysis of this last week and price is starting to reach some key levels for us. Overall, on the lower timeframes 4H and under, the trend is really starting to look bearish. On the daily we are still consolidated so let's wait for the market to show us it's hand and then attack.
Good luck the rest of the week!
Price Action & Psychology - Pullback, TrendHello !
Halfway retracement
Key support zone
Direction of the trend + wide-range candles
Indecision + spike in volume
Charts are like books. They tell us a story. We're trading in the direction of the trend, marked by these spikes in volume combined with wide-range candles.
What do the shadows/wicks tell us ? Well there's much conviction here. Whenever buyers are in control, they get very aggressive. Anyway, sellers still manage to bring the price back down (buyers are still in control!).
Obviously, everytime the price gets over-extended it retraces, usually on low volume. This shows that sellers are : 1) not being aggressive, 2) not being numerous. In other words, whenever prices get down, it's not a shift in investors/traders minds, but rather the natural course of profit-takers.
The trade is pretty clear here. After getting rejected from the resistance (and breaking out from the range), the stock comes down, on low volume, showing low interest in selling the stock. The hint here, is the indecision candlestick coupled with a spike in volume. This means, the stock has arrived at an important historical zone and buyers are stepping in.
Thanks for reading and if you have suggestions or want to discuss the idea, just leave a comment, I'll be happy to answer.
***Disclaimer : This is not an advice to buy the stock. Please, be aware that trading is a matter of probabilities and that it only takes ONE trader to deny your trade.***
Price Action & Psychology - Pullback, MTFAHello !
Key points :
Pullback after over-extension
Fading volume, downtrend losing steam
Engulfing on higher volume
Wide-range candles defining a strong upward movement
I like pointing out the fact that stocks hold on to certain historical support zones. Traders and investors tend to remember them well, as you can see below :
The general trend is "bullish", meanwhile the temporary trend is "bearish" (correction/pullback). The fact that we saw the volume fade means that the downtrend is running out of steam.
In fact, the engulfing pattern we see, coupled with a higher volume on the green day, confirms the theory that buyers are taking control back, i.e. the primary trend might be about to resume.
Now, on the weekly chart, we spotted that old support zone. And this is what the hourly chart looks like :
Pullbacks can be seen on any timeframe. It seems like that support we defined previously, still matters.
Because stocks never move straight to the upside, we can expect a pullback on the hourly chart. This will be the signal we're waiting for.
Thanks for reading and if you have suggestions or want to discuss the idea, just leave a comment, I'll be happy to answer.
***Disclaimer : This is not an advice to buy the stock. Please, be aware that trading is a matter of probabilities and that it only takes ONE trader to deny your trade.***
MPC - 8.83% or 32.75% Profit Potential - Bearish PennantBearish Pennant formed out of a 2-month correction.
Target price set at new potential 2-month Support bounce. If we break through this new support line, rather than bouncing at $33.47, there is a possibility to hit a 2-year downtrend support line at $23.71.
- Historical Downtrend (1 year)
- RSI and STOCH below 50
- MACD below Signal
Suggested Entry $36.04
Suggested Stop Loss $37.15
Target price $33.47 (moderate) or $23.71 (aggressive)
Note that I tend to adjust stop losses in order to secure profits early and preserve capital. This means that the target price is going to be achieved as long as there are no strong pullbacks that trigger my new adjusted stop loss.
GOOGL - 7.17% Profit Potential - Ascending TriangleAscending Triangle and new support confirmed multiple times in the past 3 days.
Target price set at new historical resistance line bounce.
- Historical Uptrend
- RSI and STOCH above 50
- MACD above Signal
Suggested Entry $1592.45
Suggested Stop Loss $1560.3
Target price $1710.71
Note that I tend to adjust stop losses in order to secure profits early and preserve capital. This means that the target price is going to be achieved as long as there are no strong pullbacks that trigger my new adjusted stop loss.
US500 At All Time Highs! But For How Long?It's no secret that the US500 has made all-time highs within the past 24hrs, but for how long can this continue? Well, in my opinion, I think this is the start of a newly established trend. I've decided to take a long at the daily close on the breakout and will look at trailing the SL as we push higher. As there are no highs to set targets for, I've decided to let it run as long as possible and just trail the SL.
Price Action & Psychology - Pullback after breakout, TrendHello !
Key points :
Significant support
Pullback after breakout
Wide-range candles in the direction of the trend
Indecision + volume increasing
As I pretty much always do, I went back in time looking for major support and resistance zones. To do that, I switch to a line chart and I take a look at the 1-year timeframe, it's way easier to define the major zones.
This is what it looks like :
Getting back to our candlestick daily chart, we can see that we've had a breakout : very wide-range candle and spike in volume.
Stocks never go straight "to the moon" and after breaking out that much, they usually need to "rest" or "breath". It started by declining quite fast (see the wider red candles below resistance). Then it started slowing down, we can ultimately say that the counter-(down)trend is losing power.
In other words, sellers were in control, but buyers are coming back in, since the major trend is an uptrend, as the trendline shows. We saw some more "fights" between buyers and sellers during the last 3 trading session.
What tells us that the uptrend is pretty strong, are the wide-range candles we see going in the direction of the trend.
Finally, on the last trading session, we have a clear price rejection, with increasing volume.
My entry will be around the last close and I'm using the ATR (based on 9 days) indicator to get an idea of the average volatility of the stock. This helps me defining a stop loss.
I'm using the previous resistance as the first target for my trade. Considering the setup here, I can imagine the stock price breaking that resistance and making a higher high, but because I can't predict it, I'm going to take some profits at my first target, and then I'll work out what to do with what I've got left from there.
Thanks for reading and if you have suggestions or want to discuss the idea, just leave a comment, I'll be happy to answer.
***Disclaimer : This is not an advice to buy the stock. Please, be aware that trading is a matter of probabilities and that it only takes ONE trader to deny your trade.***