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Supply_and_demand

XAUUSD BUY & SELLHi Guys, In today analysis we have multiple levels of demand and supply. Some new and some already tested. Couple hours ago market touched 2036 supply level and it was followed by huge move down, currently being at 2022. So price could test same 2036 level for second time should go up and if move up continues above 2040, 2048 would be a level which I look to short. Below We have 2016-2012 demand level which can hold the move down and give us some good profits, and if that is broken also other levels exist below. Later today we have a major news for USD which impacts gold to great extent make sure you watch for it. Be honorable
OANDA:XAUUSD
by AliHassanzadeh
XAUUSD OAK Gold's New All-Time-High and Intraday ForecastGold's price rose back to it's all time high value last Friday December 1st, then broke the ceiling on December 4th, at the Asia markets and week's opening. In a flashing escalade that lasted less than one hour, rocketing 77 dollars up from 2070, the price claimed a new ATH price at 2147 US dollars per pound . The correction followed since. We are looking now at the continuation of this berish move, and here I offer some morning doodles for today. Gold is going to continue up in the larger trend, and not just for this years closing. It's just a matter now of finding our how deep a retracement could reach. It might be still soon for doing that accurately.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by eyeofkronos
SPX into 2024G'day, Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Pink = Consolidative box example (Daily) Orange = Daily Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence as criteria varies to suit the individual. Below are some of the take aways from the video - please listen again incase any detail is missed. Daily Chart Weekly chart Monthly Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 7+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Focus on investing for long term positional moves Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXIII
OANDA:SPX500USD
by LupaCapital
Gujarat Raffia Industries _a breakout on cards and 90% upside!It was noticed that the stock has been in an bottoming and accumulation phase for more than 2 years starting Aug 2021 till date. During this 2 year phase the stock attempted to go beyond the INR 40 mark but the same proved to be a strong supply/resistance zone for the stock preventing it from going higher(though few spikes/tails managed to pierce it a few times). On the downside however, INR 27-30 kept providing a very strong demand zone/support for the stock(though a few tails pierced it on one of the occasions) and was probably used to accumulate this stock by interested parties during this phase. The stock gave a falling trend line breakout last week with growing volumes and has greater chances this time around of breaking-through the INR 40 wall that it could not break-down in past 2 years. There is little to no resistance for the stock once it closes(weekly) above INR 40.INR70-80 seem to be the only resistance on the chart which from current price are almost 90% upside. INR 33 can be used a 'SL' for this stock to enter around INR37-40 zone for a potential target of INR70-75. NOTE*-The views expressed are based on personal opinions/observations. Please do your own analysis of any company in which you wish to invest/trade.
NSE:GUJRAFFIALong
by neeraj_2_sharma
The Concept of Supply / Demand TradingThe principle of supply and demand trading involves identifying a counter-trend candle that precedes a sequence of three consecutive candles exhibiting strong bullish or bearish momentum. This specific candle is designated as the supply or demand level. The underlying theory posits that when the price retraces to the region where demand previously triggered a robust price movement, it is likely to encounter renewed demand, consequently attracting a larger number of buyers, thereby sustaining the prevailing trend. Rule 1: The aggressive price movement must consist of 2-3 (3 preferred) candles that demonstrate remarkable strength in their respective directions. Rule 2: The candle retracing to the demand zone should close outside of the zone, accompanied by a wick that reflects considerable strength.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Education
by AmpedTrading
Has ITC refueled its tank for the next move up?The ITC stock now has been consolidating for more than 2 weeks at a very strong support/demand zone of INR430-435. This particular S/R zone is an active zone for the stock since May 2023, acting as support and resistance on several occasions since May. There was a slight breach of the zone in Oct.end which was successfully reversed by the excess demand hence providing more relevance to this zone. It is very interesting to witness the stock making a 2-week range right at the demand zone of 430-435 as if it is only waiting for an explosion upwards towards the supply zone of 450-455. Surely the sellers/bears have tested the buyers/bulls enough and the buyers have bravely stood their ground even bringing the stock back above 430 after the breach, but now its time for the buyers to test the sellers. We shall see if they hold their ground of 450-455 or flee from the battleground. CMP 437 SL 432 TARGET 457
NSE:ITCLong
by neeraj_2_sharma
Have you had your coffee yet?We already know that coffee beans have always been one of the most traded commodities in the world, specifically second, so why the sudden interest again? Figure 1: Summary of World Coffee In recent years, global consumption has increased at a higher rate than production due to pent-up demand. This rather large deficit in balance in the past two years puts the coffee market in an interesting spotlight. Nonetheless, arabica beans continue to be the more favored selection, with South America as the central production region, driven mainly by Brazil. Gaining Access to This Market Amongst various coffee derivatives, a coffee futures contract is the most common way to trade coffee. The 4/5 Arabica Coffee Futures (ICF) listed by Brasil, Bolsa, Balcão (B3) Exchange is an example of such contracts. For those unfamiliar with futures contracts, it is a legal agreement to buy or sell a specified asset at a predetermined price for delivery at a specified time in the future. For the ICF contract, the asset is 100 bags of 60 kilograms filled with grade 4-25 or better Arabica coffee bean produced in Brazil that is meant to be delivered in the city of São Paulo, Brazil, or a B3 accredited warehouse. The ICO’s Grading and Classification of Green Coffee states that “coffees of the highest altitudes are denser and larger in size than those produced at lower altitudes.” Loosely speaking, larger beans with higher density are better. The grade indicators refer to the number of defects found in a 300g sample. To achieve a 4-25 grade, the coffee must be classified by B3 in accordance with its rules and regulations. This grading system is more specific to Brazil-produced beans. Other coffee-producing countries have other specifications and classifications. The Trampoline Effect Figure 2: Supply & Demand Factors Historically, the ICF future prices resemble that of a trampoline, with major support lines at the 124.55 and 103.60 levels. Let us explore some of the factors that caused these jumps previously; bear in mind that consumption of Arabica beans has been steadily increasing since the 1990s. S1: Poor weather conditions in South America in 2010 Brazil suffered from poor weather conditions and faced significant problems in meeting the expected crop yield. Large producers were also considering hoarding their stocks. The problem was further exacerbated by the backdrop of record low arabica stock levels since the 1960s. S2: Drought in Brazil in 2014 Similarly, poor weather conditions caused uncertainty in crop production for the harvest year and pushed prices up. S3: Drought and frost in Brazil 2021 The effects of drought followed by a severe wave of frost in Brazil wiped out its coffee production. This was accompanied by increased freight costs and shipment issues caused by Covid-19. S4: Harvest Conditions Evidently, weather conditions pose significant downside risks to the coffee supply. Moreover, occasional coffee leaf rust coupled with increasing demand has caused spikes in coffee prices. USD and Coffee Figure 3: ICF and DXY (Inverted) As with many commodities, coffee tends to move inversely with USD. This is especially so since most coffee contracts, like the ICF, are priced in USD. When the dollar rises, coffee becomes more expensive in non-USD terms and can cause international demand to fall, and vice versa. Figure 4: ICF and BRLUSD This relationship becomes more apparent when compared to BRLUSD. Our thought process: Local Brazilian producers and manufacturers traded these ICF contracts as a hedging tool. During the physical delivery of the beans, these market participants would then have to do a currency exchange. Consequently, the impact of BRLUSD rates would have a larger impact on them. Similar Coffee Futures Contract Figure 5: ICF and KC The two contacts’ underlying assets - arabica beans - have similar grading standards. Consequently, macroeconomic factors are likely to have similar impacts on the two contract prices. The prices between the two contracts exhibit a very strong positive correlation. We can then create a spread with ICF – Coffee C (KC) Futures Contract. Figure 6: ICF - KC ICF is quoted USD per bag for a contract size of 100 60kg bags, while KC is quoted USD cents per pound for a contract size of 37,500 lbs. We can then create a spread with ICF1!/60-KC1!/0.4536/100, by converting both contracts to the same base units. The spread setup indicates that KC generally trades at a premium compared to ICF. This could be attributed to several factors, a notable one being the higher liquidity preference investors tend to have for the KC contract, which might reflect a broader international preference. It is also worth noting that ICF requires Brazil-produced arabica beans, while KC comprises beans from other countries. This could explain the uncanny coincidence between the upside bias in spread movements (Figure 6) occurring in periods identified in Figure 2 – supply-side factors driven mainly from the Brazil side. Putting into Practice Enough has been said about coffee; you must be wondering how we then use this information to set up trades. Here are some ways for consideration. Case Study 1: Directional Driven By considering current macroeconomic factors on coffee, to express a “quieter” outlook on coffee, an investor could sell the ICF future contract (ICFH4). At the present level of 206.00, with a stop-loss above 219.00 – a conservative resistant line – it brings us a hypothetical maximum loss of 219.00-206.00 = 13.00 points. As shown in Figure 2, if ICF1! Reverts to major support line 124.55, a hypothetical gain of 206.00-124.55=81.45 points. Each ICF futures contract represents 100 bags; the value of each point move is USD100. However, as we approach the main harvest period for Brazil, May to Sep, it is of paramount importance for the investor to keep a watch for any potential hiccups that could negatively affect the harvest yield. Furthermore, this is likely to be a medium-term macro-driven strategy. Case Study 2: Spread Driven Regarding the ICF-KC spread currently trading at the upper bound, an investor with a bearish short-term view that the spread will trend downwards could sell ICF futures contract (ICFH4) and buy KC futures contracts (KCH4). At the present level of 206.00 and 169.95 for ICFH4 and KCH4, respectively. Following the formula above, the spread will be at –0.31336 points. Setting the resistance at the Fibonacci 50% ratio, we have a stop loss at -0.25, which brings us a hypothetical maximum loss of -0.25-(-0.31336) = 0.06336 points. Setting the support at the Fibonacci 38.2% ratio, we set our take profit at -0.40, which brings us a hypothetical gain of -0.31336-(-0.40) = 0.08664 points. The value of each point move in ICFH4 is USD100, while KCH4 is USD375. Conclusion There are various methods to create opportunities for investors, depending on how the investor would like to view the market or what other financial assets to pair up with coffee futures contracts. What we have covered in this article merely scrapes the tip of the iceberg, and we hope investors keep a creative mindset and explore other potential options. Disclaimer: The contents of this article are intended for information purposes only and do not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description.
BMFBOVESPA:ICF1!Short
by inspirante
10
XAUUSD BUY AND SHORT Hi Guys, let's see another gold analysis. So as it is obvious price tapped into supply zone and began selling off, in case market keeps dropping there is an imbalance area and below it a demand level which I believe there would be some reaction there. So Monitoring area around 87 is recommended. Should price breached through that level next demand level would be at 1979 which there has not been any reaction. *Later today we're going to have two important news for dollar so make sure you consider them and your own logic into it before taking any trades. Be honorable
OANDA:XAUUSD
by AliHassanzadeh
4
EURUSD: Potential to turn BEARISH!Thd D1 swing structure is bearish, having made a bearish BOS externally. Internally, price is bullish, having successive iBOSs to achieve the pullback to an internal LQ target. Price has reached a premium supply zone, a high probability location to look for a shift in the market from bullish to bearish, starting the next bear leg to make the HTF LL. If you like the analysis, tap the LIKE or BOOST button. If you want to see more free analysis, consider subscribing to my channel. Thank you. May profits be upon you.
Short
by RT_Money
2
EURUSD did indeed turn bearish....Price has dropped over 100 pips from the poi. I believe it is heading to the sell side LQ for the raid @1.0825 low, and potentially further into the FVG and discount prices. Again, the pullback may have started, but it is not confirmed until price has a substantial BOS (break of structure). For me, that would be a daily candle close below the SSl level. If you benefited from the original analysis, drop me a comment. I respond to all of them. If you are pickin' up what I'm puttin' down, tap the BOOST button, if you would. It helps my channel to grow, and let's me know I'm doing something right! Want to see more free analysis? Consider subscribing to my channel. Thank you. May profits be upon you.
by RT_Money
1
Analise XAUSDThe analysis conducted on the XAU/USD pair is based on support and resistance levels. By plotting S/R, I identified these zones, and considering the current uptrend after a correction last week, I observed the following: H4 (4-hour chart): The trend and RS zones are evident. M30 (30-minute chart): We can observe the price action, which is present twice, indicating a retest. Following these points, I placed a buy order at this level, and I believe the analysis will hold true.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Lourenco05
NEAR/USDT Short Sell Trading ⬇️Hello Everyone 🙋🏽‍♂️ Overbought + Supply zone 🟠 EP 1.980 🔴 SL 2.081 🟢 TP1 1.860 ⚠️( Close 33% of the trade and Set the SL on EP )⚠️ 🟢 TP2 1.740 ⚠️ ( Close 33% of the trade )⚠️ 🟢 TP3 1.618 🔥 ( Final result)🔥 We are not responsible of any losses for anyone, our trades are profitable more for long terms and we take losses as everyone, manage your lot size as well and your SL and TP and my opinion is 0.01 lot for each 500 $. Don't forget to hit the like bottom and write a comment to support us. Follow us for more 🙋🏻‍♂️ Best Regard / EMA Trading . Disclaimer: ---------------- It's not a financial advise, As everyone we take losses sometime but for long term trading we are profitable traders, so manage your account well with SL and TP and your lot size to keep your account safe and stay in the market
Short
by UnknownUnicorn60802882
5