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EURUSD 11 - 15 Dec 2023 Weekly Analysis - FOMC Week!This is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 11 - 15 Dec 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: Weekly Daily 4H Economic Events Weekly Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish Internal Bearish Reached Swing EQ 2. After the iBOS we expected pullback, price tapped into Liq on the lift and a Weekly demand zone which provided a pullback and formed a bullish CHoCH confirming INT Low. 3. Price had fully mitigated the weekly supply (FLIP Zone and swept the Liq above the zone by not fully closing the candle above. Expectations are set now that we are targeting the Weak INT Low following the Bearish INT Structure. Price is approaching a weekly demand area which can provide a reaction. 4. Extreme supply within the bearish INT structure with Liq below it. A potential zone located in the Swing premium for continuation down Daily Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish INT Bullish OF Bearish Reached EQ 2. After BOS we expect a pullback OF turned bullish to facilitate the Swing pullback and we formed bullish iBOS to confirm the Swing Low and the pullback. With that pullback we formed Weekly and Daily demand zones which are potential for longs after confirmation on LTFs. 3. After the Bullish iBOS we are expecting a pullback. First sign of the pullback maybe starting is a CHoCH which price did and confirmed INT High. With that pullback we had formed a Supply zone that can act as a potential zone to play the pullback phase. Price reached a daily demand zone where we have seen a reaction from on Friday after NFP news. The mitigation of this daily demand zone could be the start of the Bullish continuation of the Daily INT Structure. But be mindful that the Daily Swing is Bearish, Reached the EQ and mitigated Daily/Weekly Supply zones, So we may have finished the Swing pullback and we are in the Swing bearish continuation to target the Weak Swing Low. Let's watch LTF to guide us. 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bearish Reached EQ 2. INT structure turned bearish to liquidate the INT Low (Liquidity above the Daily Demand) and mitigated the daily demand zone. INT Structure is currently bearish, so we are still bearish and there is a high probability that we may break the Swing Low as per the Daily/Weekly Bearish Continuation. On the other side, 4H/Daily Swings are bullish and we are at the extremes. If we are going to continue these bullish structure then at least we need to see Bullish iBOS on the 4H. We also could benefit from LTFs to show us early if that daily mitigation could develop to be a Swing Continuation on the 4H/Daily. Waiting for LTF to show me more developments. 3. Swing low and last demand for potential buys. Economic Events for the Week
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 8 Dec 2023 Intraday Analysis - NFP Day!This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 8 Dec 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bullish Reached EQ 2. INT structure turned bullish which is a sign that the Swing pullback my had finished and we could continue up following the Bullish Swing. We didn't mitigate any HTF POI till now for this INT structure to hold. May be the daily range on the left could be the reason of the INT to turn bullish! We will see after. Currently we are mitigating the 4H demand that caused the Bullish iBOS and as long we respect the INT Low the possibility of moving up from his is high. Waiting for LTF to show me more developments. 3. Swing low and last demand for potential buys. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish Internal Bullish Reached EQ 2. Swing turned bullish after a series of bearish structures which indicates that the 4H Swing pullback may ended and we may continue the Bullish 4H Swing move. Current bullish Swing structure is a sign of bullishness but looking on the left, we still in a range which is not convincing much and could be a a pause in the market before heading down again. Away from that, as long i trust the structure and accept the outcome from it, i'll be looking for longs to continue that bullish Swing as long we don't break the Swing low and form again a bearish Structure. 3. 15m Demand within the 4H Demand which could provide opportunity for longs as long we respect the Swing Low.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 7 Dec 2023 Intraday Analysis -EUR GDP / US Jobless ClaimsThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 7 Dec 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bearish Reached EQ 2. Price had created a Bearish INT Structure and it could be targeting the 4H Demand within the Swing extreme. Currently price is in Swing pullback phase and the Bullish continuation could start at anytime from the Swing Discount. It's preferred to mitigate a Demand zone to give more confidence. Will be waiting for LTF (15m) to support the decision with bullish structure formation. 3. Swing low and last demand for potential buys. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish Internal Bearish 2. Price still in a series of bearish structures (Swing/Internal) as we didn't mitigate yet any HTF POI. We formed Swing Low yesterday after a Bullish iBOS but it didn't hold for a pullback phase. My expectations is price may continue down to a HTF POI and we can see after a change to a bullish structure to confirm that the 4H Swing pullback is over and we may continue the Bullish Swing. Currently Shorts is the play with the current Bearish Swing from Supply zones that are well positioned in Premium. For Longs, i'll wait for the mitigation of a HTF Demand zone or the 15m Swing/Internal turn bullish.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 5 Dec 2023 Intraday AnalysisThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 5 Dec 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bearish Reached EQ 2. Swing low and last demand for potential buys. 3. Price created a bearish iBOS which confirmed the Swing High and the Pullback started. Price tapped into the Discount and we may start the Pullback for the bearish INT Structure. Price could sweep the Liq. above the CHoCH and continue down. But be mindful that the Swing is Bullish and we could see the Swing bullish continuation at anytime. There is no high probability demand that price can start the pullback from and the only one available currently at the Swing extreme. Due to that, better to see structure change on LTF before looking for Longs. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish Internal Bearish 2. Swing structure turned bearish creating a BOS. After a BOS we expect a pullback. INT structure is bearish which means we still in the bearish continuation until we have a Bullish iBOS. I'll be waiting for Bullish iBOS to play the 15m Swing pullback or wait for the 4H Bearish iBOS to confirm the 4H Swing Pullback started to play Shorts.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 4 Dec 2023 Intraday AnalysisThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 4 Dec 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bullish Reached EQ 2. Swing low and last demand for potential buys. 3. After the Bullish iBOS we expected a pullback. We created a CHOCH and price continued the pullback for the INT Bullish Structure. The pullback pushed down and swept the Liq. below the Stron INT Low and reached the Swing EQ. It's a tough call now! We have the 2 options valid (Buy / Sell) but we need to see more price development and confirmation to trigger. Option 1 Buy: I'll be waiting to see if price will confirm the failure to close below the INT Low and it was a sweep of Liq. below strong low from the LTF Structure changing to bullish. Option 2 Sell: I'll be waiting for the INT Structure to shift bearish which will confirm the Swing High and we can look now for shorts after the INT pullback. But be cautious that we already reached the Swing EQ and buyers will step in now. Let's see what the LTFs will tell us and we can adopt accordingly while keeping our HTF analysis always in play. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish Internal Bearish 2. Swing structure turned bearish creating a BOS. After a BOS we expect a pullback. INT structure is bearish which means we still in the bearish continuation until we have a Bullish iBOS. Price taped into the 15m and 4H Supply that caused the bearish BOS and till now holding. I'll be waiting for Bullish iBOS to play the 15m Swing pullback or wait for the 4H Bearish iBOS to confirm the 4H Swing Pullback started to play Shorts.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 4 - 8 Dec 2023 Weekly Analysis - NFP WeekThis is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 4 - 8 Dec 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: Weekly Daily 4H Economic Events Weekly Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish Internal Bearish Reached Swing EQ 2. After the iBOS we expected pullback, price tapped into Liq on the lift and a Weekly demand zone which provided a pullback and formed a bullish CHoCH confirming INT Low. 3. Price had fully mitigated the weekly supply (FLIP Zone and swept the Liq above the zone by not fully closing the candle above. Still it could be a sweep of liq if we started to see pushes to the down side and structure changes on TF lower than the Weekly TF. Price could be targeting the Supply zone at the INT Structure High to continue bearish as long TFs lower supports that. 4. Extreme supply within the bearish INT structure with Liq below it. A potential zone located in the Swing premium for continuation down Daily Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish INT Bullish OF Bullish Reached EQ 2. After BOS we expect a pullback OF turned bullish to facilitate the Swing pullback and we formed bullish iBOS to confirm the Swing Low and the pullback. With that pullback we formed Weekly and Daily demand zones which are potential for longs after confirmation on LTFs. 3. After the Bullish iBOS we are expecting a pullback. First sign of the pullback maybe starting is a CHoCH which price did and confirmed INT High. With that pullback we had formed a Supply zone that can act as a potential zone to play the pullback phase. The bearish CHoCH on the Daily appearing to be a Liq. Sweep as we didn't close below it. So, be mindful that OF is in Strong bullish move and playing against it without confirmation will be rough. Let's watch LTF to guide us. 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bullish Reached EQ 2. Swing low and last demand for potential buys. 3. After the Bullish iBOS we expected a pullback. We created a CHOCH and price continued the pullback for the INT Bullish Structure. The pullback pushed down and swept the Liq. below the Stron INT Low and reached the Swing EQ. It's a tough call now! We have the 2 options valid (Buy / Sell) but we need to see more price development and confirmation to trigger. Option 1 Buy: I'll be waiting to see if price will confirm the failure to close below the INT Low and it was a sweep of Liq. below strong low from the LTF Structure changing to bullish. Option 2 Sell: I'll be waiting for the INT Structure to shift bearish which will confirm the Swing High and we can look now for shorts after the INT pullback. But be cautious that we already reached the Swing EQ and buyers will step in now. Let's see what the LTFs will tell us and we can adopt accordingly while keeping our HTF analysis always in play. Economic Events for the Week
by Amr-Sadek
1
EURUSD 1 Dec 2023 Intraday Analysis - US PMI / Powell SpeaksThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 1 Dec 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m Before the analysis, i want to share update on my current short trade on EURUSD. The trade is currently active and secured by moving SL to BE. My current target is the 15m Swing Low/4H INT Low/Daily CHoCH. My current understanding that we are bullish in structures (15m Swing/ 4H INT / Daily INT) and i should either close my current short or look to long. But as i planned the trade from the start targeting the Liquidity on the Daily i wouldn't change my plan within the trade unless something significant occur (15m INT Structure turns Bullish). By sticking to the plan, i can evaluate my trading analysis and planning to find out where i can improve my trades. In other words what you planed is what you'll get. Currently there is a chance that price can reverse from here as we are at 15m / 4H Bullish structures extreme. Trade 15m Chart: 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bullish 2. Swing low and last demand for potential buys. 3. After the Bullish iBOS we expected a pullback. We created a CHOCH and price continued the pullback for the INT Bullish Structure. Currently we are at the INT Discount/Extreme but there is high probability demand area to contain price from my point of view. Yes, Price could continue the bullish momentum and 4H INT Bullish continuation move. But i prefer to have a well defined Demand Zone to look for trades from. There is also a pullback required from the 4H Swing which we didn't have it till now and the Daily Liquidity (INT Low on the 4H) could be the target for the daily to get Liquidity for more up side. That's why i don't prefer to trade from an area without seeing Liquidity taken. Let's see what the LTFs will tell us and we can adopt accordingly while keeping our HTF analysis always in play. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish Internal Bearish In Discount / Extreme 2. As internal Structure turned bearish yesterday. Price continuing bearish and reached the 15m Swing Extreme. Our expectations that after this deep pullback and if we are going to stay bullish on the 15m Swing, Price could start the bullish 15m Swing continuation. But the INT structure still bearish so no confirmation yet. there is a risky option that i can see is that the INT to INT Structure turned bullish which could be the first sign for bullish momentum coming after this deep swing pullback. It's Friday and December starting which is not a preferred trading month. So i'll be cautious with the current price structure and wait for solid options. 3. INT Structure is in bearish momentum after starting the pullback. Yesterday EU CPI news was a catalyst for that deep pullback.
by Amr-Sadek
2
BTC - Market Structure 101 📚 Keeping It SimpleHello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders, 📊 I find the BTC H1 chart interesting as it has been respecting the market structure cleanly inside the rising channel recently. 📈 As the price approaches the lower bound of the channel, the bulls are taking control for an impulse after breaking above the last high in blue and the 21 EMA. 📉 Conversely , as the price nears the upper bound of the channel, the bears take charge for a correction after breaking below the last low in green and the 21 EMA. Today, BTC rejected the upper bound and broke below the green low and 21 EMA, signaling that the bears are currently in control. 📉 The bears are expected to maintain control, and we anticipate a movement towards the lower bound of the channel. 📈 However , a shift in momentum could occur if the bulls regain control by breaking above the red channel and reaching 38,100. In such a scenario, we would anticipate a bullish continuation towards the upper bound of the rising channel. What are your thoughts? Do you believe BTC will continue to adhere to this simple market structure? 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr
by TheSignalyst
1
EURUSD 30 Nov 2023 Intraday Analysis - EU CPI / End of Month!This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 30 Nov 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m Before the analysis, i want to share my trade taken yesterday based on the analysis shared with the idea of looking for Shorts to play the pullback for the 15m Swing and the 4H INT Structure. As per the plan yesterday, i was waiting for Bearish INT Structure to signal that the pullback had started and i can look for Shorts after. We did that yesterday and formed a Bearish CHoCH on the 4H where i took my shorts in anticipation that the INT Bearish Structure will hold bearish to facilitate the pullback. I know it will not be a smooth trade because we are trading against the trend, but as per the plan i can trade these options with cautious. This is the current trade for reference on 15m Chart: 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bullish 2. Swing low and last demand for potential buys. 3. After the Bullish iBOS we expect a pullback. We created a CHOCH yesterday which confirmed the INT High and the pullback of the INT Structure started. Most probably we will be targeting the Demand zone in the 4H Swing Discount before looking for longs. Be mindful that the Bullish momentum is so strong and shorts wouldn't be a smooth ride, So patience is always the key of success! plan and wait for confirmation. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish Internal Bearish 2. INT Structure turned Bearish to signal the 15m Swing Pullback and we are in short term bearish momentum. Most probably price will be targeting the unmitigated 4H / 15m Demand zones and the Swing EQ for this pullback. Could extend to the Swing Extreme but our expectations is to look for longs from the extreme after confirmation. Be Mindful that the Bullish momentum is strong and shorts will not be a smooth ride. 3. Price had mitigated the 4H Supply and created a CHoCH on the 4H which created a new Supply that was mitigated within the current Bearish INT Structure.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 29 Nov 2023 Intraday Analysis - EU CPI/US GDP, BaileyThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 29 Nov 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bullish 2. Swing low and last demand for potential buys. 3. After the Swing BOS, we expected a pullback but price still in Bullish momentum and still creating Bullish INT Structures. We didn't have Swing pullback till now which will be identified by a Bearish iBOS. Price did another Bullish iBOS and reached a 4H Supply and mitigating a Daily Supply. We are expecting a pullback for the INT Structure and the first sign will be a bearish fractal CHoCH which will be the 15m Bearish iBOS. Be mindful that the Bullish momentum is so strong and shorts wouldn't be a smooth ride, So patience is always the key of success! plan and wait for confirmation. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish Internal Bullish 2. As expected, price created another Bullish BOS following the Bullish momentum. After a BOS we expect a Swing Pullback. The first sign that the pullback maybe starting is a Bearish Fractal CHoCH. But as we formed INT Structures after the BOS, then we will wait for INT Structure to turn bearish first to: 1- Confirm a Swing High 2- Confirm that the pullback is starting Be Mindful that the Bullish momentum is strong and shorts will not be a smooth ride. 3. Price is currently mitigating a 4H and Daily Supply Zones. Pullback could start from here, but as we identified in the previous point that we need a confirmation with a Bearish iBOS. Longs are currently the only play from the INT Demand areas after confirmation till INT Lows fails and we get the bearish iBOS.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 28 Nov 2023 Intraday AnalysisThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 28 Nov 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bullish 2. Swing low and last demand for potential buys. 3. After the Swing BOS, we expected a pullback but price still in Bullish momentum and still creating Bullish INT Structures. We didn't have Swing pullback till now which will be identified by a Bearish iBOS. Price reached the extreme of the Bullish INT Structure and we may react only from there as our expectations is to reach (And maybe extend above) the Weak INT HIgh. So the current supply there may provide some bearish reaction, but our expectations on the 4H TF is to continue up. But keep in mind that the bearish scenario we have from the Weekly and Daily could be starting from this area or a bit higher. In all ways, bearish scenario will be confirmed with bearish structure formation which we don't have till now. So patience is always the key of success! plan and wait for confirmation. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish Internal Bullish 2. INT Structure continuing bullish following the 15m Swing bullish structure and our expectations is to reach the Swing high and most probably we will take it out. 3. Price still moving to the upside but i can see there is no momentum. So my expectations that we can see a break of the INT/Swing High, mitigate the 4H/Daily Supply and then we can start a pullback. There is no confirmation yet for the shorts, So most probably will wait for at least a bearish iBOS.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 24 Nov 2023 Intraday Analysis This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 24 Nov 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bullish 2. Swing low and last demand for potential buys. 3. Following the bullish INT Structure, after the iBOS we pulled back to the structure extreme and mitigated the 4H demand. Currently price is mitigating the formed demand from the bullish CHoCH. Current expectation is to target the INT High. But be mindful that the Swing Pullback could happen at anytime and the current INT Bullish structure can fail to start the pullback. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish Internal Bullish 2. INT Structure turned Bullish to Signal that the 15m Swing is over and we are currently targeting the Weak Swing High. If price going to respect the current INT Low there is a high probability that we are going to continue up. So this demand zone is the last opportunity for longs to continue up. 3. Price didn't mitigate any 15m/4H supply up. So we may have another push to the up side specially after the Bullish iBOS.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 23 Nov 2023 Intraday Analysis - EUR PMI / US HolidayThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 23 Nov 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m Before i start my analysis, i want to share the current trade that i planned it in my analysis yesterday in regards to the buy opportunity from the 4H Demand. Current trade is based on the idea of following the Bullish structure on 15m and 4H and as long the 15m Swing is bullish, i'll be looking for longs from 4H demand. This is the current long trade with SL now at BE as we reached the INT Bearish Structure Extreme Supply. 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bullish 2. Swing low and last demand for potential buys. 3. Following the bullish INT Structure, after the iBOS we pulled back to the structure extreme and mitigated the 4H demand. Current expectation is to target the INT High. But be mindful that the Swing Pullback could happen at anytime and the current INT Bullish structure can fail to start the pullback. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish Internal Bearish 2. Price in bearish INT Structure to facilitate the 15m Bullish Swing pullback. We reached the discount and almost the extreme and mitigated a fresh 4h demand zone. Most probably if this Swing is going to hold bullish, we are expecting the INT structure to turn bullish and target the Swing High. 3. Current INT Bearish structure extreme supply zone which could provide short opportunities to continue bearish. But be mindful that we reached the discount and mitigated the 4H Demand.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 17 Nov 2023 Intraday Analysis - EUR CPI DayThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 17 Nov 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bullish 2. Bullish Swing continuation happened as expected and we created a Bullish BOS. After a BOS we are expecting a pullback and first sign will be a CHoCH. We just formed IMO 1 demand zone within the Swing that it's also a FLIP to the supply formed. So most probably if we reached that level we will have potential longs. 3. After reaching the Daily/4H Supply, price started to show some reaction. Yesterday the CHoCH was below the 4H Demand (FLIP) down, which is far away for price to reach to indicate that the 4H is starting a pullback. Put price yesterday with US news created a new high and for that the CHoCh is moved to the upside. If price did the CHoCH today and hold the supply formed that then there will be a better probability that that pullback is starting. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish Internal Bullish 2. Price did another Bullish BOS yesterday with US news. This means that in order for price to start the Swing pullback on the 4H, we want to see a break of the Swing Low in order to have a Bearish Structure on the 15m and the 4H will have the CHoCH which is an indication for the pullback. Buys makes sense because the 15m Swing in still bullish but the HTF are looking for a pullback so there is more probability we will have this pullback soon. 3. There are no unmitigated POIs in this Bullish Swing for longs. So the ChoCH on the 4H idea and the current 15m Swing low being near is adding for me a probability that we will take out the 15m Swing Low / 4H CHoCH to initiate the pullback. Most probably Monday will be interesting to see the setup. Have all a nice weekend.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 16 Nov 2023 Intraday AnalysisThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 15 Nov 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bullish 2. Bullish Swing continuation happened as expected and we created a Bullish BOS. After a BOS we are expecting a pullback and first sign will be a CHoCH. Currently the CHoCH is far away and i'm expecting price to create a higher CHoCH to initiate a sign that the pullback maybe starting. We just formed IMO 1 demand zone within the Swing that it's also a FLIP to the supply formed. So most probably if we reached that level we will have potential longs. 3. After reaching the Daily/4H Supply, price started to show some reaction. Still there is no Fractal CHoCH to indicate that may be the Pullback is starting. So we may have another push to the upside to mitigate the 4H Supply up before we start the Swing Pullback. If price didn't create a new high, then we can look on the LTF to guide us for potential Pullback from the current Daily Zone. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish Internal Bearish 2. After a BOS we expect a pullback, with the Bearish iBOS, we confirmed 15m Swing High and the start of the Pullback. Currently price in a series of bearish structures to facilitate the 15m Swing Pullback. Following that bearish structure till we reach the Swing EQ or the INT Structure turns bullish to confirm that the pullback is over and we are in the Bullish Swing Continuation. 3. Potential Supply zone for Shorts if we are continuing the Swing Pullback.
by Amr-Sadek