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U.S. Stock indices higher on Bad economic data? 🤔Risk-On Sentiment has taken over the markets today despite bad manufacturing and services data.. and it began yesterday on Nasdaq with the Daily candle closing back above the Daily Level 17,164. Other confluences for the increase on Nasdaq include 1) Jerome Powell's hawkish comments on April 16th. 2) Dollar Index 5 minutes chart : Here we can observe the Risk on sentiment with the data this morning. The dollar Index represents the U.S. dollar of course and puts it againsgt a basket of currecies(4) . Since the USD is a safe haven.. and the dollar index is going down.. this represents money flowing into other asset classes as ivestors see better retruns elsewhere such as Nasdaq (Risk-On U.S. stock index). This is what we would expect to see with bad USD data 3)The Fakeout price action on Monday suggesting Buys today 4) Volatility Index (Vix) 5 minutes chart : We can observe that price decreased during london session and through the not so great USD data release. This means that more investors are buying call options in the S&P500 companies anticpating that the stock indexes will rebound to the upside. This could have been correlated with buying the stock indexes like Nasdaq after it jumped up with the data release this morning. Let me know what your thoughts are on the Nasdaq! These publications are for general and educational purposes only. Not trading or financial advice.
BLACKBULL:NAS100Long
by ShrewdCatfx
Forecasted to Reach New All-Time High with +14% Upside PotentialHi Realistic Traders, let's delve into the technical analysis of NASDAQ:GOOG Google has rebounded three times on the EMA200 Line with upward impulsive movement, indicating a continuation of the bullish trend. Additionally, it has formed a bullish chart pattern known as a falling wedge pattern. In March 2024, it broke out of the falling wedge pattern with a bullish full-body candlestick and higher-than-average 7-day trading volume . This higher-than-average trading volume is significant as it suggests increased market participation and conviction behind the price movement, reinforcing the validity of the breakout. Moreover, the MACD has made a bullish crossover, signifying a shift towards upward momentum. A bullish crossover in the MACD is a crucial signal in technical analysis, indicating a potential reversal from bearish to bullish sentiment. This occurrence is significant as it suggests strengthening buying pressure, often foreshadowing further upward movement in the price. Analyzing these technical factors, we forecast a potential upward movement to our designated target. It is essential to note that the analysis will no longer hold validity once the target/support area is reached. Disclaimer: "Please note that this analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered a recommendation to take a long or short position on GOOG." Please support the channel by engaging with the content, using the rocket button, and sharing your opinions in the comments below!
NASDAQ:GOOGLong
by financialfreedomgoals101
2
C3.ai: Channel Down bottom buy.C3.ai (AI) is bearish on the 1D technical outlook (RSI = 36.727, MACD = -1.800, ADX = 49.528) but has staged a solid recovery at the bottom of the 1 year Channel Down. This sequence is very much like the October 2023 bottom, which targeted the 0.786 Fib as a LH. Having completed a MACD Bullish Cross, we go long aiming at the top of the Channel Down (TP = 32.50). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
NYSE:AILong
by InvestingScope
Indices higher with the Vix as Support 🧐Hello traders.. kicking off the week here the stock indices are up alongside the USD strength. We have the vix which sold off dring the london session and this tells us that sentiment is leaning towards risk on as call options are being bought. The Nasdaq is moving up here and we could mirror some of the candles to the left handside that we observed during Friday of last week. We could move up to 17,303 or at least towards there since we have clean traffic on the 1hr chart and 4hr. Oil has continued to selloff as I anticpated and gold has sold off even more denoting some risk-off sentiment from commodities. Bond yields are up slightly denoting some risk on sentiment to begin the week here. The overall trend for yields has been up the last few weeks. It will be important to observe how candles close around 17,164 daily level as this will tell us of impending strength or weakness in Nasdaq. We may retreat towards 17,070 if price cannot sustain around 17,164 daily level.
BLACKBULL:NAS100Long
by ShrewdCatfx
ESM2024 (S&P500) neutral atm, no further shorts allowed for nowWe are neutral on S&P futures after the recent drop. It is too early in the week to determine a high probability bias. We have taken out fridays high today (5058), and we might see further retracment to the upside. We are not considering a short bias on the daily chart, unless ESM2024 daily candle body closes below 4984. Until we get more insight troughout the week, we will stick to intraday scalping only. There is potential buyside liquidity remaining at 5095 and sellside liquidity at 5006. We will see if tomorrow gives us a setup to engage either one. As of now, I think 5006 sellside is the more likely one. This is no financial advise! Do not risk real money on any idea published by us⁠.
CME_MINI:ESM2024
by MintMarkets_Fx
3
TESLA: Oversold. Can the price cuts stop the bleeding?Tesla announced aggressive price cuts globally on their main model lines as well as its FSD and is reported that a 20% headcount reduction is pushed. Further decline on today's opening has pushed the 1W technical outlook to the brink of oversold territory (RSI = 32.105, MACD = -19.430, ADX = 47.504) and bottom of Channel Down that started last July. So can these brave measures to a dismal Q1 delivery report counter the declining global demand and price competition from Chinese EV producers and restore the stock price to where it was earlier this year? Well one thing's for sure, TSLA has been in this situation before. The growth pattern from 2019 to today is very much like the one from 2012 to 2017. Both started with immense parabolic growth that peaked and declined towards the 0.382 Fibonacci and rallied again after forming a bottom. We are now at the stage where Tesla founf support in late 2016 near the 0.786 Fib of the corrective wave. The 1W RSI patterns are similar as well. As long as the 0.786 Fib holds we expect at least $500 by mid 2025. It is very likely that tomorrow's earnings report coupled with the price cuts will be the fundamental base that the company needs to restore investing appetite back. On the long term this appears to be a worthwhile low risk entry for the undisputable leader of the EV market. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by InvestingScope
Vix Gaps up 18% with Israel/Iran Conflict The Markets are moving money into buying Puts and this signals Fear. This is what war does I suppose and is the logical scenario that we would anticipate. Put Options are being bought as market participants anticpate lower prices on the Indices overall in the Short term at least here. We gapped up to a Daily level on the Vix where we consequently observed a decrease. The Size of the gap coupled with the Daily level and the not-too-far off Weekly level provided a strong place to reverse to fill the gap. The market is up 3% on the day after being up much more. Since the beginning of the Israel/Iran Conflict (Monday April 15th) the Vix is up 9% . As we move further into Q2, I'm anticpating a continued pullback in the broader stock market or even range. Vix may go sideways or range
TVC:VIXLong
by ShrewdCatfx
Nasdaq and Indices Lower on Middle East conflictNasdaq keeps pushing bearish as the stock indices struggle to deal with rising tensions and conflict in the middle east. The Monthly/Weekly timeframes .. everything is bearish. As we head into the close of the week I'm anticpating a further push bearish. The previous 4hr candle closed a shooting star candle.. this coincided with the 1hr timeframe rejecting a 1hr resistance zone,17,397. The market dropped and really disliked the Israel strikes from 12 hours ago. We have bearish momentum , anticpating a retest of daily support level 17,164. The weekly candle will likely keep pulling down to finish off the candle. Vix volatility index gapped way up overnight due to war conflicts and this signals more puts being bought and therefore more anticpated downside on the Indices.
BLACKBULL:NAS100Short
by ShrewdCatfx
Mid April: Market pullbacks, inflation concerns; critical levelsIn April, the markets navigated a sluggish terrain, witnessing pullbacks from the record highs achieved in March for both the S&P 500 and the Dow. Meanwhile, the NASDAQ experienced a marginal dip, bolstered by specific technology stocks. Persistent concerns surrounding inflation lingered, exacerbated by the latest Consumer Price Index data revealing a 3.5% annual increase in March, with core inflation climbing to 3.8%. These figures, coupled with inflation data surpassing expectations, tempered anticipations for immediate interest-rate adjustments. Our analysis pinpoints a notable development as the US stock market dipped below the critical 5141 level, meriting close observation. Signs suggest a potential further descent, potentially to close a gap, presenting a prospective opportunity for traders. We recommend traders monitor these levels vigilantly for insights into market trajectory and potential trading prospects, particularly surrounding the 4982 gap level. This juncture could serve as a pivotal support or resistance zone, contingent upon price action and market sentiment. Diligently tracking these benchmarks can furnish invaluable guidance for making well-informed trading decisions amidst the current market landscape.
SP:SPX
by Vestinda
U.S. Stock Indices, signs of Relief? 🏛️hello traders.. the U.S. stock indices have been getting pounded by bearish sentiment related to new war conflicts. Also, they were due for a pullback as things have been quite bullish the last few months. Price currently is testing a Daily support level on Nasdaq at 17,500. The NYSE 1hr candle just closed strong bearish below our Daily support level and we are currently retesting structure to continue bearish. A 4hr zone at 17,410 may be the last hope for bears before another selloff takes place to retrace another 2 percent to 17,164 Daily support level. We currently have bearish momentum in the Risk-On stock markets. We had retail sales come out much better than expected earlier this week but this didnt do much at all for price. Strong jobs data and increasing inflation in recent months have increased price a decent amount and this looks like a healthy pullback for profit taking and liquidations.
BLACKBULL:NAS100Short
by ShrewdCatfx
PALANTIR: Best buy opportunity since January.PLTR is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 33.299, MACD = -0.640, ADX = 35.931) as it trades under its 1D MA50 and today reached the 1D MA100 for the first time since February 5th. Even though the 1 year Channel Up still has some downside to bottom on its 1D MA200, this is technically the best buy opportunity since the January 31st low as the 1D RSI entered the 1 year Support Zone. This is the 3rd correction inside this Channel and each leg is -4% shorter, so the current -25% correction from the top is a fair Low to buy. The accumulation at the bottom of those corrective waves has been between 4-6 weeks so the market may take its time to accumulate towards the end of May and then rally aggressively. Fair target, the 1.236 Fibonacci extension (TP = 29.00). See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
PLong
by InvestingScope
1
CAPE Fear: Is the Stock Market Headed for a Cliff Dive? A dark cloud hangs over the seemingly sunny skies of the stock market. The culprit? A valuation metric known as the CAPE ratio, which is currently hovering near its third-highest level in history. This has some investors spooked, whispering fears of a potential market plunge. But is this cause for panic, or simply a cautionary sign? The CAPE ratio, or cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, takes a company's average earnings over the past 10 years into account, rather than just the most recent year. This provides a smoother picture of a company's value and avoids distortions caused by short-term fluctuations. When applied to the entire S&P 500 index, it offers a snapshot of the overall market valuation. Historically, a high CAPE ratio has often preceded significant market downturns. For instance, the dot-com bubble burst of the early 2000s and the 2008 financial crisis were both preceded by elevated CAPE ratios. This correlation has led some to believe that the current high CAPE ratio is a ticking time bomb waiting to explode. However, the story isn't quite so black and white. Here are some factors to consider: • Earnings Growth: A key caveat is that high CAPE ratios can be justified by strong corporate earnings growth. If companies are consistently generating more profits, a higher valuation might be warranted. While future earnings are never guaranteed, a healthy corporate sector with robust profit margins can support a higher CAPE ratio. • Interest Rates: Interest rates play a crucial role in stock valuations. When interest rates are low, as they have been for the past decade, stocks become more attractive compared to bonds and other fixed-income investments. This can drive up valuations, even if underlying fundamentals haven't necessarily strengthened. • Investor Psychology: Investor sentiment can also influence the market. If investors are feeling optimistic and bullish, they may be willing to pay a premium for stocks, pushing valuations higher. Conversely, fear and uncertainty can lead to a sell-off, causing a rapid decline in the CAPE ratio. So, what does this mean for the future of the stock market? • Caution is warranted: A high CAPE ratio is a signal that the market may be overvalued. Investors should be cautious and avoid blindly chasing momentum stocks. Diversification and a focus on long-term fundamentals remain crucial investment strategies. • Not a guaranteed crash: A high CAPE ratio doesn't necessarily predict an imminent market crash. It simply suggests that future returns might be lower than those experienced in recent years. • Focus on quality: Instead of chasing high-flying stocks with inflated valuations, investors should focus on companies with strong fundamentals, a history of consistent earnings growth, and sustainable business models. The current market situation calls for a balanced approach. While a high CAPE ratio is a reason for caution, it shouldn't trigger panic selling. Investors should be mindful of valuation metrics, but also consider factors like earnings growth, interest rates, and overall economic health. By adopting a prudent investment strategy and focusing on quality companies, investors can navigate this period of uncertainty and potentially weather any potential storms.
SP:SPXShort
by bryandowningqln
APPLE: Is this 1D MA50 rejection something to worry about?AAPL is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 51.445, MACD = -1.220, ADX = 19.718) as it is getting sold emphatically today following Friday's rejection on the 1D MA50. That was the first time to hit the 1D MA50 in 2 months, so this rejection may be just short term profit taking. We can basically see two Channel Down patterns, very similar with each other. On November 2nd 2023, when the 1D MA50 also broke following a price rebound inside the S1 Zone, it also gave a pullback on the following session. If tomorrow we see a recovery, then we might be on a similar recovery path towards the R1 level. Our target is just under it (TP = 199.00). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by InvestingScope
6