Get started

Stimulus

Do we continue the downtrend this week? AUS200Do we continue the bear market this week? Or do we rebound? I can see us dropping to new lows however in this current market anything is possible. My short is currently in a nice profit.. Using a trailing stop loss strategy with this one. We will have to see what the Australian Government can deliver on a stimulus front, money printing is only delaying the inevitable at this current moment.. The $2Trillion stimulus package will have a short-term affect as the cases of COVID-19 continue to go parabolic in the US.. Let me know your thoughts below! Remember to keep your analysis simple! I use a 14EMA and recent S/R zones to base my trading on, I then wait for confirmation candles in either direction to make my moves.. Building my patience has so far been my most challenging factor in trading.. Keep on the alert! -- MNLZ
OANDA:AU200AUDShort
by MinimalFiat
NCLH - Fibonacci retracement shows first level of resistanceNYSE:NCLH Norwegian Cruise Lines (NCLH) recently ran into resistance as sellers prevented the stock from going past the .236 fibonacci retracement level earlier this week. Furthermore, recent options activity shows bearish sentiment with NCLH put/call volume ratios of 2.07 This means for every 1 call that trades, there are 2 puts are being traded. The Put/call open interest ratio is a little more narrow at 1.20. (Ratios were taken at the time of when this article was written and are subject to change). With the prospects of receiving a bailout is not looking good for the cruise line industry, there are mixed signals from the White House that leave many investors wondering whether to buy the stock now, or wait for another drop in the stock. Many cruise lines have suspended all operations for 30 to 60 days. So we will be monitoring the impact that has on the stock. The White House is expected to pass the massive CARES act, which may provide many U.S. companies the eligibility to receive loans or loan guarantees from the Federal Government. The major cruise lines are not incorporated in the United States, which the President knows and mentioned last night that he would like to see them come to the United States... and that he wants to assist the cruise lines. <- You can see now why it's a toss up as to whether or not the cruise lines will receive financial aid from Federal Government. Based on all the public information available, where do you think NCLH is heading? Up or Down?
NYSE:NCLH
by UnknownUnicorn6775423
Boeing's wild ride!The aircraft manufacturer has really gone through ups and downs coming into 2020. Contributing to the recent declines have been the ongoing issues with the 737 Max crashes in 2019 which led to the FAA suspending the aircraft from flying hurting many airlines such as Southwest, United Airlines, and American Airlines. Also adding to the pain is the Coronavirus pandemic which has suspended all non-essential travel nationwide. Boeing traded at a low of $89 on March 18th, 2020 and today traded (March 25th) at a high of $174.77 due to optimism amid congress passing a stimulus package that would grant passenger and carrier airline $58B in loan or loan guarantees from the federal government. Buyers who took advantage of the recent lows have already made 100% returns on the stock and Boeing pays of $8.22, that’s a 9.23% yield for those who bought when BA was trading at $89/share! NYSE:BA
NYSE:BA
by UnknownUnicorn6775423
NIO- Long-term bargain price is within the grasp. Don't miss it!Please click like and follow me if enjoy my posts! :) Due to the whole market meltdown, NIO has retraced back to Fib 0.786 lvl early this week. However, it has since then rebounded strongly and is currently fighting the resistance lvl. Barring the continuing worsened market condition, I believe NIO's distribution cycle is nearly over. The current bargain price is hard to pass up despite the unfavorable external environment. The prudent approach would be to determine the total amount you want to put in, then use the pyramid method to scale in slowly as the price moves down lower. I would grab my cheap shares of NIO if the price falls inside the buy zone and set the tight stop loss if the price falls below the buy zone. *Dow, Nasdaq100, S&P500 and S&P400 are all still below SMA 200. SPX 50SMA/200SMA crossover seems imminent. *Futures market seems indecisive. Dow and S&P500 are up while Nasdaq is down. *GDP final and initial claim filing figures will come out tomorrow. Both reports may have the negative impact on the stock market tomorrow. *Manufacturing related economic indictors may have the impact on NIO so it is worth to pay attention to them as they come out. *COVID-19 growth factor slows down for the first time since Mar.11. Yesterday's growth factor was 0.86 (Below one means the exponential growth slows down) DYOR! Not an investment advice.
NYSE:NIOLong
by Libratus
1
Stimulus Pop. . . SPYGoing out on a limb, and this is admittedly a tricky play . . . j Tight Stop Losses and Quick Take Profits are going to be key. Im targeting a price spike as shown by the red box, resultant of a successful vote in senate at noon. Im setting Stop Losses towards the bottom of the trend channel . . I have a 'BulkHead' buy method in place, with more purchases setup as Buy Stop Orders if the price goes in my direction A quick trigger finger to exit will be key. Good Luck
AMEX:SPYLong
by WillNixTrading
3
Long EXIVNow that VIX is in backwardation, it is a good time to bet on it. VIX reached one of its all time peaks a week ago and has been on a cliff dive since. EXIV tracks EURO STOXX 50® Volatility (VSTOXX®) at a -1 multiple. (www.stoxx.com) Although it is not directly the VIX, VSTOXX closely mirrors the VIX. As it is turbulent times, I think EXIV can reach at least the $15 level before bad news comes up skyrocketing the VIX again, in which case switch over to TVIX. We see a crossover on the 2 hour chart, but not yet on the 4 hour. I believe Trump and the government will pair Thursday's terrible unemployment numbers with the passing of the stimulus bill to mitigate the negative effects of the unemployment figures. What do you think? Will the bad of the unemployment figures outweigh the good of the stimulus bill passing?
ELong
by choiinho10
3
With meaningful stimulus coming, I'm swing trading the dipsToday Trump and Pence seemed to finally get serious about preventing a coronavirus recession, offering a payroll tax cut, a bailout of the cruise line industry, and a promise that coronavirus patients won't have to pay for testing. Admittedly these things are small potatoes compared to the scale of business disruptions that may be coming, but it was meaningful enough to reduce the PredictIt odds of recession in Trump's first term from 61% to 53%. The cruise line bailout suggests that similar bailouts may be coming for airlines, energy companies, and banks if necessary. Especially as the S&P 500 approaches its ten-year trend line, I am going to be looking at buying any large dips on the theory that additional panic selling will trigger additional panic stimulus from an administration finally waking up to the political risk of an election-year recession. I will not be playing with all of my funds, obviously. This will be risk on the order of 10-20% of my portfolio. (I already made a profit from this strategy today by buying near the mid-day low.) I wouldn't be surprised to see today's rally continue tomorrow, although the after-market movement in oil isn't promising. But even if tomorrow does turn out to be a green day, the coronavirus fear is growing as the disease spreads in the US. More downside is coming soon. I wouldn't chase today's rally; the SPX is bound to dip back toward that 10-year trend line in coming months as US economic activity continues to grind to a halt.
SP:SPX
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
Might get stimulus tomorrow; high-risk short term playTrump is meeting with bank CEOs today to discuss how to support small-cap companies with large debt burdens. The high-yield junk bond market has been bleeding lately because many of these bonds are expected to go into default later this year. However, if Trump's meeting produces some kind of stimulus or bailout, we might see this market rally. Cheap March 13 or March 20 calls might be a winner if we get a positive headline in the next few days.
AMEX:HYGLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
AUDUSD Potential Short Term Retracement or Mid Term Swing Most of the wise traders knew that the 25bp rate cut probabilities were higher and then finally when the actual day came up it ended up being a cut actually. I don't wanna explain all those stuff which had already been past but for now, we can see good demand in Aussie just to know that fed might have some future rate stimulus probabilities (but that part on next time). Knowing how the fall on S&P/ASX 200 a couple of days last week due to covid-19 chaos then suddenly after today's RBA rate decision gave a sweet upward pump which creates some optimistic vibe over Australia equity market and I assume with lower Official cash rate might have something to do on it. I wonder if S&P/ASX 200 bounces back for a couple of days it will pinpoint the demand in Aussie as people need local currency to even purchase the equities babe! Already a cut from RBA means a delay in any further cuts even if there is anything left to do! Which let me think FED babe in turn to have some stimulus game!
Long
by Anatta0
ORBEX:CHF Firm Despite Haven Flows,Pound "Stimulated" by CarneyBOE's Gov Carney hinted to stimulus yesterday, indicating that the pound could come under severe pressure if incoming data show no improvement. Coincidently, the same day there were suggestions that the EU-UK talks could be dragged past the tight deadline BoJo has set. The passenger plane crash in Tehran didn’t reflect into the markets as uncertainty about the crash remains high without access to the plane's "black box". As a result, #safehaven outflows continued to weaken the #yen. However, #franc seems undeterred by the sentiment, making a strong case for more firmness. Timestamps USDCHF 4H 01:25 GBPUSD 2H 03:35 Trade safe Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
by Orbex
EUR,USD,JPY Go Nuts After ECB! Fed, BoJ Expectations More DovishIn today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse EURUSD and USDJPY! Euro, dragged lower by the reinstation of the QE programme, was able to reverse post-ECB losses on the back of: - Limited rate cut compared to markets expectations (only 10 basis points) - Draghi's call on governments for fiscal stimulus (supporting EA economies?) - Widening yield differential against the dollar (ECB can't move lower, Fed can) - Expectations that the Fed will cut next week (a weaker dollar) On the other hand, the yen was also negatively affected by ECB's decision to ease. But with an ultraloose policy in the books for quite a number of years now anyway, easing would be worst in Japan rather than in the US. Hence the bullishness in USDJPY! Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
by Orbex
Longterm view on S&P 500Kinda cluttered, these are areas I'm paying attention to, depending how the market enters those zones I might think about taking a long/short position. Some fun facts: - Fiat currencies get stronger in market corrections, since people are selling whatever they can for dollars/fiat. - Approximately HALF the volume on the US equity markets is generated from high-frequency trading. If I understand this correctly that means half the volume traded on markets is just a reflection of the other half. That's very precarious. - Approximately %60 of bank loans within the developed world are against real estate that already exists, ie mortgages, not for construction or business startups or whatever. Non productive assets. Kinda makes you second guess the whole mantra behind things like QE. - Despite unprecedented levels of monetary easing, money velocity has plummeted and yields are scarce. There is no happy ending here. I'm not too keen on the SPX being able to hold this upward 45 degree angle its been on, I expect a crisis/correction towards 1500 at some point. I'm not a permabear but a major change needs to occur within the design of our financial system for the world to continue running, and that won't come without some volatility. These endless loans/debts simply cannot be repaid. The central banks need inflation and they're gonna get it through permanent money creation/debt monetization. This'll probably play out between now and 2020.
FX:SPX500Short
by pjlbtv
Long USDJPY following Shinzo AbeFollowing the additional stimulus of over 20 trillion yen announced early today by Shinzo Abe, I think that investor sentiment in the Japanese economy will be largely boosted, causing increased long positions in this pair, pushing up the price. Why now and why 110 yen? There has been a lot of choppy behaviour based mostly on structural moves recently, and I think that this announcement will be enough to break it out of this state. Buy now because this is at a pullback point following the initial post-announcement rally. 110 is for me a bit of a psychological point on this pair, as it hung around that point for a while on its descent earlier in the year. This for me is a good target.
Long
by olly_price
USDJPY: LONG UPDATE - RENEWED JPY FISCAL STIMULUS SPECULATION?I posted earlier with my 107 USDJPY breakout trade (see attached post) - one of the reasons I said to long USDJPY on the 107 break-out was due to JPY Govt stimulus speculation. In the last few hours we have seen fresh speculation of the JPY stimulus, with JPY20trn now being discussed/ proposed to be on the table - this renewed rhetoric is nothing but positive for the 107 breakout long trade i posted a few hours ago and supports it as YEN20trn is approximately $200bn, which is certainly enough new liquidity to give confidence to markets and spur risk markets onto fresh highs - further this JPY Govt stimulus is speculated to be combined WITH BOJ easing, so markets get a compounded risk rally since there are two potential drivers (BOJ cut rates by 10-20bps + add to maturity/ purchases of JGB and EFT). Plus today after seeing the RBNZ's dovish economic assessment (where an Aug cut is almost 100%), this gives risk markets even more fuel thus encouraging $yen to trade to the 109-111 levels i expect - though BOE K. Forbes hawkish comments negate some of this. The new JPY Fiscal stimulus speculation: 1. JAPANESE GOVERNMENT CONSIDERING 20 TRILLION YEN STIMULUS PACKAGE SAYS KYODO - "The government initially envisaged compiling a stimulus package of somewhat more than 10 trillion yen . But the size is likely to double as the package will now include projects for fiscal 2017 and beyond and increase "zaito" low-interest government loans by 6 trillion yen," Kyodo reports. 2. "The government initially envisaged compiling a stimulus package of somewhat more than 10 trillion yen . But the size is likely to double as the package will now include projects for fiscal 2017 and beyond and increase "zaito" low-interest government loans by 6 trillion yen," Kyodo reports. 3. "The stimulus could be even larger, they report. And able will look for the rubber stamp from the Cabinet in early August. About half will be earmarked for infrastructure." Trading strategy going forward: 1. Trading strategy remains the same from the 107 breakout post that i made earlier e.g. 109TP1, 111TP2 - all that has changed from the post before is that the strategy has been reaffirmed/ strengthened upon this renewed JPY stimulus speculation , given this was one of the drivers i cited to move USDJPY to the 109 then 111 level once the 107 confirmation level was broken. - In early asia trading, as yesterday, net risk sentment remains stable with safe havens gold, yen and bonds down as well as risk, though risk down slightly less. For the day, I expect risk-on sentiment to win as Thursday historically is the best day for stocks (before going into the friday end of week sell-off) + post market Wednesday some large firms posted outperforming earnings which should continue helping the risk appetite move higher (Intel + Morgan stanley beating EPS and revenue forecasts) when the main LDN and NY sessions get underway down the line. *Check the "USDJPY: BUY THE BREAKOUT" post attached for more details on the trade discussed above posted 7 hours ago*
Long
by QuantumLogicTrading
7
DATA VIEW (NOT A FORECAST): REAL SIZE OF FED STIMULUS UPDATEDespite all the hype raised about fed printing 3.5 trillion USD during times of economic stimulus, the real amount of help to economy is much smaller - it is approximately 900 billion USD The rest of "printed" money (2.6 trillion USD) is held at the Fed or traded on federal funds market by the recipients of the stimulus (key US financial institutions, who received reserve balances for their MBS or Treasuries) Apparently, recipients are unwilling to lend out the full amount of stimulus to the economy; they prefer to receive fixed guaranteed rate on excess reserves at the Fed (0.25%) or to lend them out at federal funds market (at approximately 0.14%) on overnight basis. Is the whole fed stimulus some kind of plot to make a positive impression on financial markets, while keeping inflation at bay? Ask Yellen!=)
F
by Killy_Mel