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Stimulus

The USD might go to zero one day, the Euro is going there nowCurrencies started really moving this month, in the first third of the month. And it's endless. Trends are simple: All not-zero/zero are going up, all zero/zero and not-zero/not-zero have no clear direction. The Yen and USD are also going to zero. They're all getting stimulated to go to zero they go there at different speed best to just avoid gambling on it, who knows which ones will take the race lead at T. No matter the strat better just buy not-zero and sell zero. Obviously. I'd sum up with Not going to zero: AUD & NZD, GBP, + (CNY, SEK) Going to zero: EUR, CHF, CAD Going to zero maybe more slowly for now? : USD, JPY It keeps going. Maybe too late to short EUR/not zero now, wait next PB or "day trade" it. AUDCAD & GBPCAD are not vertical yet, might happen soon, so maybe not too late.
by MrRenev
4
The Gold-Yield GapSince 2018, Gold has pretty closely tracked the inverted real yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds. Recently, however, a fairly large gap has opened between the two. Will gold close the gap with inverted bond yields, or vice versa? Generally speaking, it looks like gold has led bonds for most of this period. That suggests that gold investors are a little quicker to react to news that might affect inflation expectations. Honestly you might be able to do pretty well for yourself by going long or short bond funds based on signals from the gold market. Gold has weakened partly in reaction to US dollar strength in the first two months of 2021. The dollar index broke out of its downward wedge and looked like it might move higher: There are signs of deflationary pressures on the dollar, including a couple recent overnight repo shortages of the sort we haven't seen since the early stages of the pandemic. The Fed has been responding to this pressure by growing its balance sheet and increasing bank reserves. Janet Yellen currently has plans to pump an additional $1 trillion into bank reserves. All of that's bearish for gold and bullish for the US dollar and bond yields. However, there's some potentially game-changing news this morning: Congressional Democrats are talking about passing a $3 trillion jobs and infrastructure bill. A $3 trillion spending bill could significantly weaken the US dollar and could cause a nice bump in gold. With gold at a very significant support level, I think it's ripe for at least a short-term mean-reversion play, if not a swing all the way up to meet the inverted real yield line. Long gold, long dollars, and short bonds is a potential way to play this until we've closed the gap.
UShort
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
5
A lesson: What happens in the USA dictates everythingThe only thing that seems to not react to declarations and events from the USA seem to be their own stock market 😄 Everything else, other countries that have nothing to do with it, just you know, big moves. Money managers worldwide are all invested in everything (MPT diversification). Also crypto does not care and is correlated to the S&P (dumb money throwing cash at speculative assets?). I guess stimulus means Oil has to go up? Weird how the USD went down a bit before the announcement. Maybe the US has been selling? Or fund managers closing/hedging before the G7 meeting and the weekend? I don't really know. Japan gave up on bazooka-ing money didn't they? And they didn't suffer much from covid I think this was addressed to the other G7 members Canada, France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom. So CAD EUR GBP. She also said "The Biden administration was committed to multilateral engagement and fighting climate change". So many prices were consolidating and it was so boring then all moved so fast a few hours ago. www.reuters.com I don't really see how this is new but well that's the market, they just wait for a signal I guess. Like Bitcoin permabulls that buy in waves any time a random "this is good for bitcoin" (anything basically) news hits. And also like Bitcoin baghodlers during the bear market when anything no matter how dumb was a reason to panic sell and crash the price. Everyone is looking at the USA, also what the ECB and G7 says but mostly the US. More "stimulus" isn't it obvious? A pyramid scheme never reverses, it either continues stronger and stronger or it collapses. This saving lives and stimulus and socialism has resulted in an enormous increase in the wealth gap so of course people are asking for MOAR. Biden sent a $1400 check right (with a congress majority)? And Trump 600? Laughable. The big decline in education showing itself. Citizens can barely count now. And they clearly never heard of the Cantillon effect. Trump trade war moved the stock market, everyone was watching his tweets and buying or selling depending on whatever he said about the trade war with China. Also the covid thing last year. Now nothing seems too. That time is over. It's bubble time now. I'm just long and waiting. Maybe "stimulus" news will be the catalyst for moves in commodities and FX now like Trump trade war was for the stock market? 😄
NYMEX:CL1!
by MrRenev
5
USDCAD Conflicting CluesLast Friday we had unemployment figures from both Canada and the US. Below were the results. USA - Average Hourly Earnings (YoY): 5.4% USA - Nonfarm Payrolls: 49K USA - Unemployment Rate: 6.3% CAD - Employment Change: -212.8K CAD - Unemployment Rate: 9.4% Here you can see the US reported their unemployment rate at 6.3% signaling a nice improvement, following a not so nice NFP report with only 49k new jobs. On the other ide of this pair, Canada reported a much higher Unemployment figure at 9.4%. The initial reaction with USDCAD was bullish but then as the trading session progressed this pair continued getting weaker. Some key drivers heading into this week include: Earnings, Stimulus, Core CPI (Wednesday) US Federal Budget d (Wednesday) Fed Monetary Policy Report (Thursday) and perhaps some further CAD strength if Oil Continues it's bullish path towards $60. As we know, certainty surrounding additional stimulus supports a stronger equity market and thus drives the TVC:DXY lower. On a technical basis, the pair is indicating some strange behavioral patterns such as the convergence seen here on the daily chart. RSI did manage to close below 50 heading into Friday's close. A close below 50 does indicate that we could be heading lower but if you take a closer look how the 50 level behaved with this pair, you'll many instances when that may have been a misleading clue.. Needless to say, holding below 50 is taken into minor consideration, but we should also monitor the next 2 major fib levels such as the 50% and 61.8% illustrated on the chart. Key clues regarding the direction of this pair should include keeping a close tabs on the TVC:DXY TVC:SPX TVC:NDX TVC:VIX and of course overall market sentiment. Trading Recommendations == keep bullish trading activities light with this pair considering we may still see some further bearish downside == keep shorts limited as well considering there very well could be some upside towards 1.30 ------------------------- Please don't forget to FOLLOW, LIKE, and COMMENT ... If you like my analysis:) Trade Safe - Trade Well Regards, Michael Harding 😎 Chief Technical Strategist @ LEFTURN Inc. RISK DISCLAIMER Information and opinions contained with this post are for educational purposes and do not constitute trading recommendations. Trading Forex on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to invest in Forex you should consider your knowledge, investment objectives, and your risk appetite. Only trade/invest with funds you can afford to lose.
by Michael_Harding
1
1/26 WATCHLISTif there is any indication that we are definitely in the final leg of a bull market, today was it. Everything was pumping euphorically at open across the board until the market showed us what a mid-euphoric pullback could look like, with the rug being pulled right from under us. A lot of names like TSLA did bounce back after, but it reminds us that its SUPER IMPORTANT to stay cautious in this environment. I am still bullish in the short term. 1/26 WATCHLIST My trading style is intraday option trading - these are not swing levels. MRNA calls over 147.5 BYND calls over 164.15 BYND played out perfectly from the watchlist I posted yesterday. It has a bit more room to go to the next supply at 168.25 and then 171 - let's see if it can keep the momentum up tomorrow AI calls over 151/152 massive move today. 152 was a support level in December that has turned into resistance that AI has been trying to beat for a month. TSLA calls over 887 or 900 MSFT calls over 230.2 or 233 Would like to see more tight consolidation underneath these levels but something to keep an eye on for the near future. BTBT calls over 19
NASDAQ:MRNALong
by algrowithm
Will More Stimulus Save the Economy?Futures traded sideways again in the overnight session, and have been stuck in a tight range since last week Friday, when we saw a nasty payrolls print. This morning's jobless claims came in ugly with 965K new claims, the highest level since August, and 5.271MM continuing claims, a rare rise from last weeks 5.072MM. Import and Export prices came in higher than expected at 0.9% vs 0.2% prior, and 1.1% vs. 0.7% prior, respectively. The Biden Administration will be releasing it's economic plan today, along with a new stimulus proposal, which is rumoured to be "in the Trillions." The "leaked" number is apparently $2 Trillion, which as far as I'm concerned may have a positive impact on sentiment, but is a drop in the GDP bucket. I have no doubt in my mind that unless inflation takes off like a rocket, we're going to see a massive disappointment in GDP. Perhaps the ultra-leveraged robinhood crowd will use this new money to take the S&P to 4000, where they'll have their hand out again for another round of stimulus. I've never seen institutionalized ponzi schemes like this before. But, hey, if the FED does it, why can't everyone, right? What a farce. SPY is sitting just above the 21EMA on the hourly, which has provided strong support over the past week or so, but it would appear that if the 378 level breaks, we may retest the lower band of the white channel, which is sitting around 368. That's my target for the end of the week, and I'll be watching Vix for signs of continued support at the lower ascending trendline, just as we saw yesterday after we fell to a 21 handle. Having said that, the all-time high is an arms length away, and with Biden about to drop a bombshell proposal with Trillions in free money, markets may very well make new high's before we see any notable correction. Risk protection has never been cheaper imo, so trade accordingly. Thanks for your time today guys! If you enjoyed the analysis, join us over at the Hedge of the World website (link in profile), for our live daily play-by-play of markets.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
33
Flag Pattern on Delta Airlines - Bullish breakout expectedToday we will make a Daily and a 1h analysis on Delta + the setup we will take on this asset. Daily Chart: On the daily chart, we can see a Clear support zone and a resistance zone. The price is above the support zone, and we can project a bullish movement towards the next zone (Resistance) On the 4hs chart, we will understand the setup: Here we can see a Flag Pattern above the support zone. Flag Patterns are considered continuation structures. That means that if we have a breakout of it, we can expect a continuation of the previous trend. Our entry-level is a stop order at 42.88 / Stop level is at 38.25 / Break-even level is at 47.01 / Take profit at 50.76 The risk-reward ratio on this setup is 1.7, and we expect a resolution of 30 days. If the price goes below the stop level without executing the setup, we will consider that the view is no longer valid. Thanks for reading!
NYSE:DALLong
by ThinkingAntsOk
2
1/4 WATCHLIST + MARKET OUTLOOK** THIS IS PURELY OUR OPINION AND WE ARE NOT LIABLE FOR YOUR TRADING DECISIONS ** Happy New Year! Looking forward to the first trading session of 2021. Let's get to it! If you've been following our analyses on TradingView, you'll know that we have been very bullish in the short-term, and that we believe we are about to experience (or in the midst of experiencing) the last phase of any bull cycle - a blow-off top . You can see in the image above that we've had this strong support line (red) since the coronavirus low. On Thursday, we closed above the major resistance (green trendline - which has actually now turned into support). This is a very bullish signal. As long as the red support line holds, we will maintain a bullish bias. However, the market doesn't care about our opinion and will do what it wants. So we will trade the price action we see! WATCHLIST Note that these levels are for intraday options/equity trades. These are not swing levels. MU calls over 75.70 TIGR calls over 8.5 SHOP puts under 1128 SQ puts under 214.25 COST calls over 377.45 PYPL calls over 235 ROKU puts under 330.75 TSLA calls over 720 WKHS puts under 19.7 ZM puts under 336 Lastly, we opened a position in GLD on Thursday - we will likely add to the position tomorrow with a break of 179. Have a great week of trading!
AMEX:SPYLong
by algrowithm
$MA - 5-count Breakout with Pending CatalystHas recently broken out of a wedge with internal 5-count started in early November on news of stimulus passing. A larger stimulus payment would be very bullish for $MA - likely enough to take it to & through ATH of ~$367. Below are my targets & extended targets. Entry: Either re-test of Wedge ($342) or Break above $348.21. TG1: $355 TG2: $363 Extended TG3: $370 Extended TG4: $380 Invalidated: <$330 Like & follow if you enjoy my work :)
NYSE:MALong
by willoptions
1
BARRICK GOLDBarrick Gold -$22.88 (+0.22%) Fundamental: More stimulus is coming. especially with the 2k checks trumps demanding, that means more real inflation (fed reserves are not inflationary, stimmys are! - last stimmy cost the gov 300 Bil . This time is a higher amount, for a lower income bracket, so its reasonable to assume about the same amount ~ 300 bill more). Regardless of the macro, boomers will pile into gold as a safe haven as a result of stimulus in the news. Regardless of the economy gold companies are doing fantastic! most companies factor a price of gold < $1600. spot has been well north of this, reasonable to expect amazing returns for this company's earnings . Very underbought now ( RSI sub 30 in november, currently sub 40 ). right now, its even cheaper making this a smart money play. Consider that Buffet had bought in august, and trimmed his position in november. what did he see? Now is the time for smart money to position. Technical: back at a stable support level of $22.75. price has been hugging the yellow trend line since Aug 2018. trust the trend, not the fud. note: gold miners follow the gold price. make sure to follow the gold price like a hawk. currently very sold since august, counter seasonal trends. if gold can break $1900, the bull trend will continue. end of a bull run or a bull flag? you decide, heres my chart:
NYSE:GOLDLong
by Jorji
SP500 & A White Christmas!Wow! We are in spectacular times! So... some personal insight. I am a bit of a narcissistic sociopath. I'm also a huge hearted hippy with a big perspective on the world. After the election, i proposed that it was likely that Trump would work to let the us economy crash and burn with malicious intent. His ego is the only thing he has left, after a lifetime of selling his soul to the devil in pursuit of greed, lust, pride, sloth, envy, wrath... you know... the 7 deadly sins. That ego cannot handle a loss. Keep in mind there are also sealed indictments against him and likely his family members that will be enacted the day he is no longer protected by presidential immunity. Would you leave peacefully to go from the most known name in the world to a prison cell? - or - Would you burn it all down on your way out, and hand the next administration a "shit pie to awful the choke on it" and attempt to overthrow the government with a coup fueled by his patriotic, well armed, and incredibly loyal base? ---- I digress... back to the analysis. There is a harmonic convergence at the purple star. I found a series of harmonic patterns that fit the model well (purple fractals). These fit the overall situation of the market very well, and interestingly both converge on a point that matches with the white crash pattern from March. I believe that we will find that point today or Monday. That should precipitate a pull back due to the overall market conditions. There is also a huge nenstar pattern that is completing right now... which would normally result in a pull back to the 0.618 Fib level... Now... this post covid rally is only the result of trillions in liquidity / stimulus and inflationary financial policies by the fed and central banks. There was no chance of a V shaped recovery without that. So... i believe that this next correction, without intervention of additional stimulus, will trigger a massive crash... Possibly to the bottom of the entire market cycle since inception. "I was president during the greatest economy... EVER!" -Donald Trump, the most biggly sociopathic narcissist... ever! Good Luck Everyone!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by DHLawrence
32
Breaking: Money's Growing on TreesSocialist US President, Donald Trump, is begging congress to hand out $2,000 to every man, woman, and child in the country. This is an extraordinary thing to witness from a so-called Republican President, who, by core party value, should be both socially, and fiscally conservative. The question I keep asking myself is this: If $2,000 is going to be better than $600, then why not make it $1 Million? Why not pass a $25 Trillion stimulus proposal, then there's no need to worry about GDP next year, right? Why tax anyone ever again? Why should anyone look for a job? Why should any money flow back to the government if it grows on trees? *Pulls out a chunk of hair* This morning's data was mixed with personal spending, and personal income coming in weaker than expected, while jobless claims beat expectations, but remains elevated at over 800k. We still have over 20 Million Americans on some form of unemployment. Continuing claims stand at 5.34MM, and later on this morning, we'll see new home sales, consumer sentiment, and crude and NG inventory prints. As we discussed yesterday, there was a strong possibility (you know with all the fraud and ponzi behavior by centrals banks and governments alike), that we might gap up this morning. So said, so done. They gapped us up to the key 368 level, where the 50MA on the hourly is sitting, possibly to induce a last minute 'Santa Rally.' At the moment, it appears the bulls are getting yet another rejection at this resistance level. We'll see how the day progresses - I assume investors are feeling great about how much Trump loves them. Mean while, his properties all over the globe are doubling in value, along with all the rest of his assets, and all he has to do is perpetually dilute your hard earned cash. I appreciate your time today guys. If you enjoyed the analysis, please hit the Like button and subscribe to our profile. The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research. Cheers, Michael.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
63
#WMT - 4H - CHRISMAS GIFT - STIMULUS DEAL. Perfectly tidy midterm uptrend since the beginning of July. One-touch on October 30th, and here we go again to test that uptrend strength. But this time, we've got a 0.236 Fibonacci support acting as a safety net. Also, we can observe a rebound on that RSI's oversold lower band (30). This Sunday, Republican and Democratic party leaders announced that a deal had been reached for a new stimulus check. There are enough votes for a majority approval this Monday on congress. This policy will impact positively on all retail companies such as Walmart. Monday's pre-market will discount this political victory and from the beginning of the session, we'll have a nice bullish day. Opening position: USD 145.95. Stop loss: USD 144 (-1.30%) First price Target: USD 153 (+5%) Risk-Reward ratio: +3.91 (GOLD futures are already reacting positively on Sunday's night)
NYSE:WMTLong
by aoberninger
12/23 PRE-MARKET WATCHLIST** THIS IS PURELY MY OPINION AND I AM NOT LIABLE FOR YOUR TRADING DECISIONS ** Futures and pre-market showed a little bit a strength as we're opening a bit higher, but we're still underneath the major support (now resistance) red trendline. Volume will be low today due to shortened trading day and holidays, but let's see if we can at least close above the red trendline today. Again, careful trading today due to decreased volume!! WATCHLIST 12/23 Recall that my trading style is short scalps and intraday options. ZM calls over 409.65 BABA puts under 252.4 BLNK calls over 49 PENN calls over 96.65 PYPL calls over 246.1 SQ calls over 247.1 MRNA puts under 117.5 NVDA calls over 531.8 WKHS calls over 23.75 TWLO calls over 374.7 NFLX calls over 527.6 Happy holidays all!
AMEX:SPYLong
by algrowithm
12/23 WATCHLIST + MARKET OUTLOOK (Warning!)** THIS IS PURELY MY OPINION AND I AM NOT LIABLE FOR YOUR TRADING DECISIONS ** Very interesting day today where even though we GOT the stimulus bill, the market did not seem satisfied. We remained under the major support (now resistance) trendline in red, which has served as support since the coronavirus low. There are 2 reasons this may have happened: (1)There is a big possibility that the market had fully priced in a large stimulus package, and is now asking "ok, what else can you feed me?" OR (2) Investors are scared of the covid mutation making its way through Europe. Regardless of the reason, it is a particularly dangerous time for this to be happening because if you look at the put-to-call-equity ratio, it dropped to pretty much all time lows as soon as the stimulus bill was announced. This means that market participants are overleveraged on calls and expecting the market to continue going up (being greedy). While this is not a sell signal by itself, if the market starts to correct, we could see a big long squeeze as investors panic and offload their long positions. I would save the PCCE graph to your watchlist and check it frequently. It is essentially the chart that tells you when to be greedy vs. fearful according to the old adage: "When others are fearful, be greedy. When others are greedy, be fearful." A normal PCCE level is roughly indicated by the 2 white lines I've drawn on the graph. My bias going into tomorrow is neutral. However, the market doesn't care about my opinion and will do what it wants, and I will trade what it gives me! The watchlist from yesterday went absolutely nuts. Highly suggest finding your favorite setups and focusing on those. Don't worry about missing a play! There are opportunities every single day. WATCHLIST 12/23 Recall that my trading style is short scalps and intraday options. These are not swing levels. ZM calls over 409.1 BABA puts under 255.4 BLNK calls over 49 PENN calls over 96.65 PYPL calls over 244 SQ calls over 243.4 MRNA puts under 123 NVDA calls over 531.8 WKHS calls over 23.45 TWLO calls over 374.7 NFLX calls over 527.6
USI:PCCE
by algrowithm