Get started

Spyshort

A Silent Build Using the SPY Weekly Chart, I.D Your Pivots-WicksWassup people, I have another "Silent Build" here. A quick 3 min video on the movement of the market & to keep in mind always use your wicks or pivots as a price action guide. Always use your higher timeframes just as much as you use your lower timeframes. Taking a look at SPY's weekly chart, we see the COVID recovery from Mar-Aug. In Aug price stalled & went rangebound for over 2 months. Then in Oct, a week before the U.S election the market printed a Double Bottom Pattern & one week after the election the market broke out into new ATH's & never looked back. That run lasted a year from Nov 2020 until Dec 2021. This crazy Bull market has been on fire, but let's be honest, with all the money the government was dumping into the economy we knew some pain was ahead & here it is. If you were keeping tabs on your higher timeframes, you could have begin to get in front of it from Nov 2021 up to Jan 2022. Some of the key pivot levels on the way down have already been broken. 426 & 405 to be exact. We had a strong bear leg from April of last month until May. Here's a fun fact, historically when the market sells off for 6-7 weeks straight, it usually was the pre-cursor to a bear market & recession. Go pull up your chart & pinpoint the years: 2000, 2001, 2002, 2008, 2011 & 2022 to grasp my POV. The market usually bounces after 4 week selloffs. This time around it kept rolling over for another 3 weeks! Investors/Traders should start to pay attention if they haven't been before. Everything isn't a "Dip Buy" some investors & traders have & may continue to find that out the hard way. Overall, my downside levels are 383-320. With 320 being a pre-election level. Granted these levels are long-term levels. You have to account for bounces and minor recoveries as well. The market could just as well reverse back into the range of 404-470 over the course of 2022. In the case of any continued downside movement, I will keep 383, 378, 367, 360 & 320 has my targets. Hope everyone collects a bag rather we bounce or roll!! Peaaacceeeeeeee!!!!!
AMEX:SPYShort
by DayTraderEarl
Are we at a S&P market top? Big picture view suggests yes.This 2W candle looks like it marks a turning point in the stock market. I often use Heikin Ashi candles to see when trend reversals are happening on larger timeframes and we seem to be getting our first red candle since 2020. What's notable about this candle compared to the two that we had previously is that the body of it suggests a trend change and not a pause in momentum. If I had to take a guess on what happens here, it's that we find support at the blue line and move sideways for the next month until the next two week pivot at the end of October 2021. Then I think the market is likely to correct from November onwards. The trigger will be us losing support at the top blue line which will signal a further downfall. I'm exercising caution here and will likely be moving into cash over the next month or so. Of course, we'll have to see how the chart plays out with time and this is really just to provide a macro view. I've provided dates of key dates to watch on the charts and levels of support on the way down if we were to lose that top blue trend line as support.
AMEX:SPYShort
by benjihyam
1
$SPX: Meltup to $6k in 2022?? No, Meltdown: $2.7k-$3.5k There's been a lot of people that have been conditioned to buy the dip over the last two years, because every time that's happened, it's led to higher prices. There's people making bold calls that after this "small dip" we're going to turn around and meltup to $6k. I don't buy it. Looking at the structure of the chart, price action already looks bearish on lower timeframes but is starting to show bearish signs on higher timeframes (both the 2W and 1M timeframes). We just broke down out of this large upward channel, Heikin Ashi candles are showing a bearish trend forming on high timeframes and ichimoku is showing a wide separation of the tenkan and kijun on the monthly timeframe indicating that price needs to snap back to find a balance. 3 indications to me that price is going to move much further down. If you were to look at historical price action on this chart, you'd see that anytime there's been a wide separation of the tenkan and kijun, price as retraced. The widest separation came before the March 2020 crash. The spread between the two lines now is far greater than during that period indicating to me that the snap back down could be a violent one. My base case is that we fall somewhere between 20%-40% from these levels before continuing a move to the upside. I think this downside move is likely to take place this year 2022, and that we will bottom either later this year or in Q1 in next year. I've marked out key months for pivots in price action on the chart. Will update my views if I see things change.
SP:SPXShort
by benjihyam
7
$SPY to fall to $392-$348? Here's why I think it could happen.Over the last couple of weeks, I've tried to play the long side of some stocks expecting a bounce after a fall since November. However, since the bounces that I was expecting never materialized, I decided to reexamine the chart and I saw something that I hadn't seen before when I zoomed out. If we look at the chart of $SPY, you can see that the candle from March 2nd, retested that key support at $441 as resistance. Since I have Heikin Ashi candles on, you can also see that we got our first flat topped red candle on it. 2 in a row, will usually mean the trend will continue in the direction that it's going. On top of that, the Chikou (the lagging span of Ichimoku) just broke through the price action also indicating that price wants to move further down. All these signs lead me to believe that there's further downside to come. The first logical support level would be at $392. If we can't hold that level, then I think we'd see a retest of the $348 level (which is the 50% retracement from the March lows). I personally lean towards the second support getting tested at which point I'd become a buyer of equities. Let's see how price action develops over the coming weeks. The dates on the chart are key dates to look for pivots in price action.
AMEX:SPYShort
by benjihyam
9
SPYToday we saw a massive sell-off from all the sectors because of what Powell said yesterday. Powell mentioned in the interview yesterday that they "will continue raising rates until we see Inflation coming down." which is why investors showed a sell-off today. Now looking at the charts. There can be two possibilities tomorrow. The first one is that there can be a continuation of straight downward to 385 level. The second possibility is that there can be a bounce to the 395-397 area and then down again to the 385 level.
AMEX:SPYShort
by UnknownUnicorn11669057
SPY DIE PART 3Looks like we might get another leg lower before a big relief rally starting in June (most likely during OPEX). 20sma continued decline. HUGE sell off today after JPOW's remarks yesterday. Why were they not reflected in price yesterday? "I thought we were gonna have a relief rally after yesterday's bullish run!" Vanna, Charm, dealer positioning, hedges unwinding. It's the same story over and over and over. Bulls needed to get a huge run over the 20sma and recapture it to the upside. They failed to do that. The "rally" that took place over the last week was weak. And it's ominously telling of the further decline that is to come. Seasonality is usually bullish to end the month, but without recapture of that 20d sma, further decline is coming. The lows will be revisited and will likely grind down lower. This is a grinding bear market with occasional rallies here and there. I have a feeling the next face ripper rally will be around June OPEX, where people are going to be overly hedged and all that unwinding into OPEX will lead to explosive movement upwards (coupled with tech earnings imo). Supports listed as always. Unless bulls can explosively move markets higher into tomorrow OPEX and beyond into next week, this market will continue downward as listed above. Best of luck traders. If you're a long term investor, just be in cash. You remain in cash until FED reverses course. There are NO exceptions to this rule. DO NOT FIGHT THE FED! I will reiterate: The FED HAS BEEN CLEAR! They are removing support/liquidity from the markets - the same support/liquidity that propped up the markets to bubble like levels especially the past two years. Now is not the time to yolo on calls. And now is not the time to yolo on puts either. It is a grinding bear. Only experienced traders should trade this. The rest of you should be in cash again as listed above. You're welcome.
AMEX:SPY
by SenesTrades
1
SPY, ESBattle of the 20d SMA (blue line) is inevitable going into OPEX and even beyond. The old adage of "Sell in May, Go away" has been in full effect since the week after April OPEX. Failure of the bulls to recapture the 20sma with two consecutive closes has contributed to the decline (one of many factors). Again, price will be a combination of many things: technicals (what we're pointing out) liquidity sentiment fundamentals macro Fundamentals are starting to matter in an age where the FED is not providing endless liquidity anymore (QE). They are actually decreasing liquidity (QT) and reducing balance sheet of assets. So we know the big picture here. The 20d sma is declining, but that does not mean price cannot quickly move upwards from here. If anything, we can expect a game of chicken at the 20d sma (as jam croissant would say) - where bulls and bears alike are battling for control. We are reaching a critical window here for bulls heading into OPEX. Supportive flows will help bulls IF they can get some kind of rally above the 20d sma on two consecutive closes. That will kick start bear rally #2. If bulls cannot regain control and there are continued closes below the 20d sma by 05/27/22, then we may be in for more decline. Even with the big picture in mind, counter-trend rallies will be brutal, taking out stops on both sides. Be careful here in the short term friends. Long term, as said - until FED pivots, nothing has changed macro wise. Trend is down until proven otherwise. The 20d sma and price is just one piece of the puzzle. Ultimately, price is truth and has to be respected though. Levels are posted for supports. For ES: 4040 --> 3980 --> 3850 --> 3720 --> 3640 --> 3500 per Wifey on Twitter. Give him a Follow @ WifeyAlpha. Rough spy levels 404 --> 398 --> 385-383 --> 375-372 --> 365-363 --> 352-350. Upside will be 4040 --> 4125 --> 4270 --> 4360 -->4410 --> 4500 on ES 404 --> 410 --> 425 --> 435 --> 440 --> 448-450 on SPY relatively TLDR: Bulls need to regain control of 20sma at levels posted above in the next couple weeks (ESPECIALLY week after OPEX). If not, big trouble and more decline incoming til June OPEX. Best of luck traders.
AMEX:SPY
by SenesTrades
SPY 2008 dailys vs current daily with Burry tweet bout Nadir 180Two questions I had: how low will this go? I have no idea, so I used Burry's tweet suggestion. how many years will it take to recover SPY to the current level? I have no idea, so stretched out the pattern based on Burry's tweet suggestion. I still suck at charting, so don't use this. I actually thought we had one more last bounce, but looks like it's already dropping already. For this chart: I took a bigger picture view (curious how long it took for 2008 crash to recover to the same level as current pattern. Biggest assumption here is using Burry's recent tweet, which said something about Nadir being 10% below the most recent market crash.' The most recent crash was March 23 2020 (wonderful Covid lockdown times) when Spy was about 220 to 230 So 10-15% below (based on Burry's hypothesis) puts the bottom around 180. So, I used the same bars pattern to make the very bottom at 180, and then it gave the timeframe. Don't trade on this, it's just a hypothesis/theory, and I still am new to charting.
AMEX:SPYShort
by morekalbicom
1
SPY 2008 dailys vs current daily with Burry tweet bout Nadir 180I still suck at charting, so don't use this. I actually thought we had one more last bounce, but looks like it's already dropping already. For this chart: I took a bigger picture view (curious how long it took for 2008 crash to recover to the same level as current pattern. Biggest assumption here is using Burry's recent tweet, which said something about Nadir being 10% below the most recent market crash.' The most recent crash was March 23 2020 (wonderful Covid times) when Spy was about 220 to 230 So 10-15% below (based on his hypothesis) puts the bottom around 180. So, I used the same bars pattern to make the very bottom at 180, and then it gave the timeframe. Don't trade on this, it's just a hypothesis/theory, and I still am new to charting.
AMEX:SPY
by morekalbicom
2
SPY MAY 12 GAMEPLANToday Apple broke the support level of 150 level which was the main reason spy went from 403 to 392. Bounce back to the 398 area, which is spy resistance. Make sure to observe pre-market we can hit 398 there and then back to 390 level. Significant support at 392. I am going to short from resistance tomorrow. If we see a sell-off in pre-market, then I will observe the market. Then scalp a little on support or resistance depending on where the market is going.
AMEX:SPYShort
by UnknownUnicorn11669057
1
The Market Is Crashing and We Are All Doomed - Or Are We? TLDR: A market crash of 50% is not as unlikely as you may think, probably probable actually. Buy gold, buy land, buy commodities. Gather your cash, so you can deploy it on cheap stonks after and become a gazillionaire. I'm about to break down why the largest crash in history may happen very soon. A lot of very interesting events culminating right now, and if you plan on investing throughout your life, moments and times like this are important for your future self, as it wont be the last time a correction or crash happens. Paying attention now means more mula later. First and foremost, its clear there's a correction happening. There's no argument there. I'm not typically a bear, nor am I typically a bull. I try my best to stay neutral and go with whatever flow the market takes me. BUT... Many of the same aspects from previous crashes are showing here such as: Frenzied investor spending - Multi Million Dollar NFTs, Exploding New "wacky" Cryptos (Doge, Shib etc), The takeoff of "meme" stocks Extremely high growth in emerging markets - (SPY grows 90% in 3 years, has one of its best performance years ever (2021), (look at AAPL, MSFT, FB charts) The same happened in the previous three crashes of the last century (1929 crash, previous year saw 80%+ in growth) High deviation from the mean (price always reverts back to mean!!) Looking at the S&P, the past 3-4 years has seen quite the deviation compared to price average in the past 100 years. Why might this one be the worst so far in history? Just as price goes exponentially higher as time goes on, so do the price dumps. Also, the FED has always been there in the past to buy assets and keep companies afloat. However, this time, inflation may keep that dragged down, limiting the FEDs buying power. Not to mention the economy is currently "fake" in a way, as the FED for the past 20 years has been bailing and supporting the economy after every (even small) correction. (edited) Also, the ongoing supply problem China is about to bring, with it shutting down factories and continuing lockdowns. The Ukraine debacle, Russia being one of the largest exporters of Oil, this could put a huge damper on the U.S (that doesn't even include Russia being mean to the U.S because of the U.S sanctions to be placed by these actions.) In super high speculation, if this begins to escalate, China would take the side of the Russia, and China is the largest exporter for U.S goods - period. This would not be like WW2. ( I don't just mean fighting, I also mean sanction wars - taxing etc) We also have a super old president. This isn't a jab at Biden. He's the oldest in history, and assuming he has no health scares from now till election, I doubt he will run again. If he does, we have even more reason to be concerned about his health. God only knows what would happen if something happened to a U.S president in this hyper-informational world, and with events like this going on. If Biden doesn't re-run, we will be dealing with another election in the U.S. High disinformation and political polarization, all while this is going on and our historic enemies are doing no no's that NATO does not like. Now, with all of this being said. I, am, not, a, bear. I love things going up. Just seeing things for what they are right now. Take the information above as you will, and form your own hypotheses. Hopefully all will be well in the short and long run, and we can all make some money from this - lets not forget history's richest men appeared in the most turbulent times.
AMEX:SPYShort
by SJ_CAP
249
SPY S&P 500 Compared To 2008 - Will We Follow The Same Pattern?The daily chart for the S&P 500 looks eerily similar to the chart from the 2008 crash. We have already crossed below the VWMA 100 and VWMA 500 now which are both historically very supportive moving averages. I think it's very possible we chop around in this area for the next couple weeks while we wait for the VWMA 100 to cross below the VWMA 500, but if we can't stay supportive back above the VWMA 500, it will likely fall pretty hard. If it's anything like the 2008 crash, it should be a steep drop from here, but there are a lot of other factors at play so we will just have to wait and see. The 2008 drop fell 56% from its high over about 510 days. If we perform the same this time, that would mean a drop to around $210 that would happen around the middle of 2023. Again this is just if we repeat the exact same thing statistically. $210 is also the low from the 2020 pandemic crash and a likely area for it to hold if it does make it down that far. Something to note though is that when matching the two timeframe's chart patterns, the 2008 chart pattern took twice as long to play out. So with the bottom reaching a 56% drop over 510 days, it looks very extended and not very similar to the timeline from 2008. This makes me consider that if we do follow the pattern from 2008, it may happen in a shorter timeframe such as a year or so. This is purely speculative and obviously there are a lot of other things that factor into this, but I'm just comparing chart patterns here as possible outcomes. We should see some good support in that purple cloud though on the way down. Those are the EMA 1000 and EMA 2000 which I are typically very strong support/resistance. If we do follow the same pattern as 2008, I'm waiting for price to reclaim and stay supportive above the VWMA 100 before entering LEAP Calls when it rebounds. Then wait for price and the VWMA 100 to get back above the VWMA 500 for confirmation of another actual bull run to begin (but that could take 2+ years to happen again if this scenario plays out). Drop your thoughts in the comments, I'm curious to hear what others have to say on this comparison.
AMEX:SPYShort
by FriendOfTheTrend
3
Beautiful Bear trapHere's the deal for those perma bulls. this isn't an in-depth review but rather an summary and estimate. 1. We are in a market shift whether you like it or not. 2. We might have one test of 450 remaining. however, We may see sub 400, first due to the tape and the multiple short trend defining shorts being loaded. 3. I expect to see one shot test of around 420's or high 419's in the attempt of making a semi-major higher lower below 430's made on fomc Day. So in general: i expect another test of around could be from monday to tuesday in span testing the 420's area which could be supported by a GAP-UP in PM flowing a sharp rejection of that area leading to a test again of 410's which will be broken to 405's and prolly retest 410's with a combination of AH and IB period sessions before a push to pass 405's (this could be pushed into next week but could be friday of this coming week of the 9th of may, 2022.. Message: DON'T get trapped and tricked by RSI oversold/overbought reading going into the next two - three weeks will get burnt may want to stay out if you can't handle the VOLATILITY, expect some head spinning action.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Frugal-One