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40 Bar Cycle Chart - S&P 500 SPY SPX - Updated 011423Leading up to the December Inflation CPI Report that was released this last week (Thursday), markets (at a macro level) have been rallying into this last Friday — which also was coincidently the start of earnings season as banks such as J.P. Morgan (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Citi (C), Wells Fargo (WFC), BlackRock (BLK), & others. Now that the Inflation (CPI) Report is out of the way & earnings season is full steam ahead, markets look to the next big event(s) which include the Federal Reserve February Interest Rate Decision coming our way on February 1st, 2023. That said, here's what is happening in the charts with the S&P 500 SPY SPX ES1! as it relates to our "40-Bar Cycle" 📊: 📉 *CHART NOTES* 📈 As I mentioned above, we did break out of the sloppy trading/consolidation range that the S&P 500 SPY SPX ES1! was kept in throughout the holidays, & into the new year. Now that we've broken out of that & reached back above the 50-Day Simple Moving Average (SMA50 = Red Line) on the daily chart, SPY is sitting just below the 200-Day Simple Moving Average (SMA200 = Green Line). Also note that we did close above the SMA200 ($397.21) to finish up the week at ($398.50) on SPY. Now that we are above this key level (on a daily close), question is will we re-test this level & drift higher into the February Federal Reserve Meeting? OR, are markets setting up for a further (or short-term) pull-back using the timing & levels included in the "40-Bar Cycle" 📊 ? Keep in mind too that we did get a positive MACD crossover (buy signal) on the daily chart, as featured below. However, looking at the charts (including 4-hour MACD) I would conclude that this is likely an invalid buy signal — based in-part on other factors including January Options Expiration (OpEx) next week, 'VIX Compression', & also Federal Reserve 'Net Liquidity', which is still "risk-off" on a macro level as the Federal Reserve looks to keep a lid on asset prices, & of course Inflation (CPI). Chart #1-2: SPY Consolidation Breakout (Daily, w/ & w/o Falling Wedge Pattern) Chart #3: SPY Consolidation Breakout (4-Hour) Chart #4: SPY Consolidation Breakout (1-Hour) Chart #5: SPY 40-Bar Cycle (Daily, note that we are now clearly above the 50SMA are converging on major resistance of the 2022 downtrend & the 200SMA ). Chart #6: SPY 40-Bar Cycle (4-Hour, note the 50SMA did not cross below the 200SMA) Chart #7: SPY 40-Bar Cycle (1-Hour, note the 50SMA vs. 200SMA buy-signal & upward regression channel) What are your predictions for the rest of January 23'? Camp A: We are short-term overbought & a pull-back is in order, before we re-test & break out of this $380-390-400 range on the back of better than expected earnings, less than hawkish Federal Reserve, & more "resilient" macro data. Camp B: We may continue to short-term rally, however market liquidity is still too strong & the Federal Reserve is likely to continue with .25% — in addition to maintaining their hawkish tone so that excess market liquidity does not run away from them with higher asset prices. Macro data will continue to be mixed, if not trend-downward, & earnings will start to come in softer than people expect as forward outlooks raise the red flags for investors. Let me know your prediction in the comments below! 👇🏼
AMEX:SPY
by kylemusserco
2
The Fake Out Break OutQuick post to those of you who've been following some of my ideas. I had previously drawn the similarity between now and 2008 in terms of chart patterns, but what's playing out seems to be much more like 1968 and 2001. Notice the double tops in green before the crash both had, which closely resembles what we're headed for now. These were also the starts of boom bust cycles happening in sets of 2. With this in mind, I'm adjusting to the 2001 timeline. My new PT is $265 which would hypothetically be at the end of August.
SP:SPXShort
by PlayerNonZero
1
SPX Primed For A Powerful Wave 3 Decline - UpdateWith an impulse up formed at close from yesterday's 3877 low, the 3970 high marks the completion of W2 to set up for the bearish W3 breakdown out of this consolidation period. W3 should begin by retracing the majority of the recent rally targeting 3843-3808, for w1 of W3. Ultimately, there is a high probability target range for the W3 decline, which includes the 78.6% retracement from the October 13 low and 90-100% extensions of W1. Those are 3667-3635-3622. A fourth wave rally will follow after W3 is complete to be followed by a fifth to complete (W1).
SP:SPXShort
by TheElliottWaveClub
SPX Primed For A Powerful Wave 3 Decline - UpdateSPX extended the double zigzag correction originating from the December 22 low terminating at today's 3950 high. That 3950 high marks the completion of W2 to set up for the bearish W3 breakdown out of this consolidation period. Below 3875 will confirm the W2 termination point, which should lead to retracing the majority of the recent rally targeting 3835-3805, for w1 of W3. Ultimately, there is a high probability target range for the W3 decline, which includes the 78.6% retracement from the October 13 low and 90-100% extensions of W1. Those are 3648-3622-3615. A fourth wave rally will follow after W3 is complete to be followed by a fifth to complete (W1).
SP:SPXShort
by TheElliottWaveClub
1
QQQ MACRO ANALYSIS / SUPPLY & DEMAND / SHORT / PREDICTIONDESCRIPTION: In the chart above I have provided a macro analysis of QQQ. *IMPORTANT: Aside from SUPPLY & DEMAND POCKETS the main thing to consider is the distinct pattern we seem to have been following for the past 3 falls after rallies. Where PRICE ACTION seems to create this hook like formation before CAPITULATION takes place. POINTS: 1. QQQ exhibits a DOWNWARD TREND on the 16Hour Timeframe. 2. Deviation of 35 POINTS TOTAL JUSTIFIES SUPPLY & DEMAND POCKET PLACEMENT. 3. Estimation of Days for upcoming drop was taken by using a mean from last three rallies and falls of 76, 79 & 58 DAYS = 71 DAYS. 4. Depth of DROP was also estimated with a mean average that came out to roughly 25%. 5. MACD IS ALSO IN CONGRUENCE WITH CURRENT CHART PATTERNS & MACD LEVELS ARE CORRECTLY POSITIONED FOR MORE DOWNSIDE. BULLISH SCENARIO #1: We come to see a continuation of current channel & commit to sideways momentum above 260 eventually breaking past 295. BEARISH SCENARIO #2: If hook pattern is to expire reliable we can surely bet on enough downside that will send us below 260 and onto 225 as a final destination that can serve as a more probable MARKET BOTTOM. NASDAQ:QQQ NASDAQ:TQQQ NASDAQ:SQQQ
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by DGSTBROKERACC
SPX Primed For A Powerful Wave 3 Decline Next WeekSPX completed a double zigzag correction originating from the December 22 low terminating at Friday's 3906 high. That 3906 high marks the completion of W2 to set up the bearish W3 breakdown out of this consolidation period. Below 3852 will greatly increase confidence that the W2 high will hold to immediately target 3819-3795, initially. Ultimately, there is a high probability target range for the W3 decline, which includes the 78.6% retracement from the October 13 low and 90-100% extensions of W1. Those are 3622-3604-3570, respectively. A fourth wave rally will follow after W3 is complete to be followed by a fifth to complete (W1).
SP:SPXShort
by TheElliottWaveClub
1
MARKET BOTTOM PREDICTION!!! DXY & ES1! (MACRO ANALYSIS)DESCRIPTION: In the chart above I have provided a MACRO ANALYSIS of DXY. And what should only be taken as SPECULATION & as a POSSIBILITY since patterns tend to repeat themselves. The chart above includes an overlap of DXY & ES1! in an effort to observe their inverse & parallel relationship. POINTS: 1. DXY shows a COMMON DEVIATION of 10 POINTS justifying the placement for SUPPLY & DEMAND POCKETS. 2. A VERTICAL YELLOW LINE is indicative of a MARKET PEAK. 3. A VERTICAL GREEN LINE was placed after a VERTICAL YELLOW LINE to signify when MARKET BOTTOMED. *IMPORTANT:Between every MARKET TOP & every MARKET BOTTOM DXY FLUCTUATES a total of 20 POINTS BEFORE THE MARKET 5. PAY CLOSE ATTENTION to the recession of 2007 - 2009. After DXY saw its first 20 POINT FLUCTUATION DXY hit 80 and bounced back to 90 POINTS. 6. Moving onto RSI we can see that DXY COMMITS to its RSI TREND throughout a RECESSION which does in fact lead me to believe that current RSI levels for DXY will follow a Down Trend similar to what was seen from 2000 to 2003. SCENARIO: - With all this in mind we can speculate that DXY will CAPITULATE to 95 POINTS before seeing a bounce allowing current UPTREND CHANNEL for DXY to find some CONSOLIDATION. This will also allow RSI too COMPLETE a DOWNTREND SIMULTANEOUSLY. *PREDICTION: If DXY is to fall to 95 POINTS that would be the equivalent of ES1! falling too 3,600 OR SPY to 360* TVC:DXY CME_MINI:ES1! AMEX:SPY
TVC:DXYShort
by DGSTBROKERACC
Dec Jobs Report Preview - SPY SPX ES1! C Wave Short - 010523 Wanted to quick share a SPY chart ahead of the December Jobs Data, which is scheduled to be released tomorrow morning Friday, January 6th: UNEMPLOY USNFP Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) Unemployment Level (UNEMPLOY) Non Farm Payrolls (USNFP) Average Hourly Earnings YoY (USAHE) Participation Rate (USLFPR) Manufacturing Payrolls (USMP) Average Weekly Hours (USAWH) Looking at the 4-Hour Chart, looks like we have a C wave playing out. Also looks like the 4-Hour MACD is getting ready to roll over: MACRO NOTE: Good news (hot jobs) = Bad news (tighter Federal Reserve) aka "Higher for longer" SPY Daily Chart 📊 (C wave short) SPY 4-Hour Chart 📊 (C wave short) SPY 1-Hour Chart 📊 SPY 15-Minute Chart 📊 What do you think about this setup into the December Jobs Data tomorrow? Let me know in the comments below! 👇🏼
AMEX:SPYShort
by kylemusserco
6
S&P 500 (SPX)/Producer Price Index (PPIACO) Leading Market LowerToday, I wanted to share a chart setup that was inspired by @Badcharts that highlights the ratio of S&P 500 (SPX) / Producer Price Index (PPIACO) correlatio n — which, as @Badcharts recently highlighted on a Twitter space led (or very closely correlated) with the downturn in the S&P 500 (SPX SPY ES1!) starting in late 21’. In addition to this, I wanted to layer on the S&P 500 (SPX), Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), & U.S. Recessions as these (3) inputs seem to have a very intersting correlation to the relative predictive timing of previous recessionary periods — both in 01’ & 08’. I’ve also added the “MACD Indicator” (bottom indicator) & the “Distance from Moving Average” (first indicator), using the SMA 144 & 200 Bar Lookback as these help highlight overbought/oversold conditions in the ratio of S&P 500 (SPX) / Producer Price Index (PPIACO) — which could help you identify tactical market positioning opportunities (long or short). Here is the chart key for this setup: 📊🔑 Black/White Bars = S&P 500 (SPX) / Producer Price Index (PPIACO) Blue Line = SPX (SPY ES1!) Orange Line = Unemployment (UNRATE) Vertical Black Dotted Line = Pre-Recession Ratio Peak (SPX/PPIACO) Vertical Orange Dotted Line = Pre-Recession Unemployment Trough (UNRATE) Vertical Blue Dotted Line = Pre-Recession S&P 500 Peak (SPX) 1990 - 2023 Overview (Monthly) 📊 *2001 Recession* (Monthly & Weekly) 📊 *NOTE: First indicator peak/trough to last indicator peak/trough = 5 bars (months)* Peak (SPX/PPIACO) = Mar. 00’ Trough (UNRATE) = Apr. 00’ Peak (SPX) = Aug. 00’ *2008 Recession* (Weekly & Daily) 📊 *NOTE: First indicator peak/trough to last indicator peak/trough = 5 bars (months)* Trough (UNRATE) = May 07’ Peak (SPX/PPIACO) = June 07’ Peak (SPX) = Oct. 07’ 2023 Recession? (Weekly & Daily) 📊 *NOTE: First indicator peak/trough to last indicator peak/trough = 7 bars (months), but no “technical recession”…* Peak (SPX) = Dec. 21’ Peak (SPX/PPIACO) = Jan. 00’ Trough (UNRATE) = July 22’ What are your initial thoughts & observations from this chart setup? Let me know in the comments below! 👇🏼
SP:SPXShort
by kylemusserco
1
40 Bar Cycle Chart - S&P 500 SPY SPX Q - Updated 010323After a sloppy last few weeks of trading to wrap up the year-end 22', SPY closed right around the (Q4/22') SPX JPM J.P. Morgan Quarterly Collar sitting right at $3,830. Looking ahead to the month of January, we have lots of upcoming data including December Inflation CPI, Jobs Report(s)/Unemployment Data (UNRATE), Producer Price Index (PPIACO), Leading Economic Data such as the OECD Composite Indicators (USALOLITONOSTSAM), Upcoming Q4/22' Earnings Releases, etc., of which is seems markets are staying relatively "pinned" for the time being until this data starts hitting the markets & investors come back from the extended holiday season. Per our "40-Bar Cycle" chart, while I expect that this next down-leg in SPY SPX will likely play out as shown in the in the charts. However, do keep in mind that there are some seasonal tailwinds & also some tailwinds for markets regarding mid-term election cycles. Here is what history tells us about pre-presidential election mid-term seasonality: 🇺🇸🗳🗓 “Third year pre-presidential election is the strongest.” (Up Double Digits, Historically) Dow = 19.3% (Since 1949) Dow Jones Industrial Average S&P 500 = 20% (Since 1949) SPY SPX ES1! Nasdaq = 29.3% (Since 1971) QQQ NQ1! Election Cycle Data 📊: twitter.com Election Cycle Data 📊: twitter.com Election Cycle Data 📊: twitter.com Election Cycles Data Explained via Twitter Space 🔊: twitter.com SPY Daily Chart Template www.tradingview.com Which camp are you in on the short-term (Q1/23') direction of markets? Camp A: We are likely we headed for new lows in Q1/23 (Lowering, But High Inflation aka Stagflation + Persistent Price/Wage Pressures + Hawkish FED + Downward Earnings Revisions/Misses). Camp B: We are likely to break the downtrend into Q1/23', as mid-term election/pre-presidential cycle seasonality kicks in & also as the economy proves more "strong" than many are discounting (Peak Inflation + Light Deflationary Forces + Dovish FED via Pending 'Pause' + Nominal Earnings "Resiliency"). Let me know your prediction in the comments below! 👇🏼
AMEX:SPY
by kylemusserco
3