Looking for a day pullback and continue higherStill think we hit 3830-50SPX at min.
Next pullback will be a telling story if we can get to 39 handle or not.
Main support is at 3715 now and one more at 3735SPX
Spxsignals
SPX gapped above 3735The price gaped above the main resistance line, there is noting much but air above.
Main target is 3850 now, while first resistance is at 3788-90SPX
Any pullbacks should be bought imo, especially 3735-15
Level of importance is 3715 on closing level, must hold on any closing to continue higher
S&P500 Broke above the 4H MA50. 3900 next?The S&P500 (SPX) index broke above its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), which as we mentioned on our previous analysis, it was the bullish break-out signal. In fact the current post is an update to the post Rate Hike analysis made on September 22:
The pattern remains the same and so does the current price action that appears to be replicating the late August - early September leg. As you see, when SPX broke above the 4H MA50, it was on the same MACD pattern as today and the subsequent rally hit not only the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) but extended as high as the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from the previous High. If completed, the 0.618 would fall exactly on the Lower Highs trend-line that started after the August 16 High.
You can approach this in segments. First target the 4H MA200 or the 0.5 Fib and if you want to assume some more risk, pursue eventually the 0.618 Fib. This pattern may be invalidated if the price breaks below the 4H MA50, in which case we will be looking for the 1W MA200 as our target again (red trend-line).
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SPX must take 3675 for higher levels to be seenI really want to see 3675SPX tested and then a move above it after a retracement.
The down trend channel is important here, so all eyes on 3675SPX!
Im out from my Fri longs at 3645, will re-enter
Also closed my SPY 346 calls at BE, very happy with not loosing there:)
Please note, all the purple lines are the unfilled gaps!
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S&P500 Is this the last Support standing??------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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The S&P500 index (SPX) has been pulling back again considerably since the mid-August High, which still was a Lower High within the current Bear Phase. A very consistent pattern that throughout this prolonged, multi-year Bull Cycle has offered the best buy entries possible, can be seen on the 3W time-frame.
The signal is given by the 3W RSI which as you see defines almost all of the Bull Cycle since the bottom of the Housing Crisis in 2009. The pattern is a Lower Lows trend-line that started on the August 2011 Low and every time the index hit that Support, it rebounded aggressively into a new Bull Phase, thus providing the most optimal buy entry. The trend-line was almost hit on the May 31 candle, which was the first time the index hit the MA50 (blue trend-line) since May 2020 and the post COVID-crash recovery. Breaking marginally below the MA50 and then rebounding has been the norm throughout this pattern.
During the COVID crash, the RSI Lower Lows trend-line was hit on its exact level, however SPX briefly breached even below the MA100 (green trend-line) amidst this never-seen-before market panic. Can this mean that the RSI has its last Lower Lows touch in store for us with a Low closer to the MA100 again? It is possible, but what we should keep from this pattern is that if the post 2009 Bull Cycle era remains valid, then the next RSI Lower Lows trend-line touch will be as close to a perfect buy entry as it can get. And if broken, we could assume that "the last Support standing" of the Bull Cycle has finally fallen.
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S&P500 How to trade it following the 0.75% Rate HikeThe S&P500 index (SPX) dipped aggressively following yesterday's Fed Rate Decision, which was a natural reaction to the third straight 0.75% rate hike. The first one was made on Jun 15 2022 (rate gone from 1.00% up to 1.75%) and the second on July 27 2022 (rate gone from 1.75% to 2.50%).
In both cases the market reacted positively by the following day, despite rate hikes fundamentally being negative for stocks. Especially in the case of June 15, the market was surprised as it got an even higher than expected hike (the forecast was 0.50% instead of the actual 0.75%) but still digested the news in such a way that it made a bottom on June 16 and started a rally that rose by +19%. That is the fundamental outlook for the moment.
As far as the technical aspect is concerned, the index is below both the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) since September 13. The trend is bearish since the August 16 Top. Early in today's E.U. opening, the price is rebounding as it hit the top of the 3750 - 3720 Support Zone (1). As long as it holds, it can technically target the 4H MA50. Only a candle close above it can extend buying targeting the 4H MA200. Notice the similarities with the August 29 - September 07 Channel Down that eventually broke upwards and reached as high as the 0.5 - 0.618 Fibonacci Retracement Zone. That can make a perfect match with the 4H MA200. Note the similar patterns on the MACD as well.
A closing below Support Zone (1) however can deliver an rapid fall to Support Zone (2) 3660 - 3640 and eventually the 1W MA200 (red trend-line), which is the ultimate long-term Support.
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SPX one more big bear channel visualizationA slightly lower into my 3802-17 level will be a perfect hit of the lower trend channel.
NQ already broke its on to the downside! Important to note
A right shoulder fake rally will be perfect before it really drops into Oct/Nov lows
Also dont be surprised if it breaks, then look for the retest of the broken trend channel from below
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SPX to hit 3802-17I missed am short, now waiting for 3802-17 to go long.
Wont rule out a move down to 3750 tomorrow before FOMC
The way I see it is that we will bottom today tomorrow and rally back to 3880+ after the FOMC decision, then completely erase the move by Fri.
Should bottom on the 17th and rally up into EOM early Oct, then continue lower
Dont try to trade this, very choppy designed to take both sides. I got chopped with stops here, now entered with short and exit at my 3802-17SPX level
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SPX Weekend quick updateI was busy all weekend, this update will be quick.
Still seeing this as a bear market, well it is for the past 9 months wasnt it.
The main trend is still down!
Please note those purple lines are the unfilled gaps, will be gone each time the price will fill those, otherwise act as magnet to fill, depends on the trend
Looking at the price action, I can see 1-2, 1-2 development (Im not an EWT pro or do I want to be at this point) to the downside and much lower levels into Oct/Nov low.
Also think, that this bear market will merge into Q1 2023 and should bottom sometime in Apr/early May
As for this upcoming week of Sep 19th:
- Im looking for a day or 2 muted bounce and continue lower after the FOMC decision.
- If we see the opposite, a drift lower into the FOMC decision, then I would be looking for a long right before the announcement.
I think we will bottom this week on the 21st-22nd, or make a intraday low next week 27-29th.
Friday price action wasnt what I expected and limited to the downside by holding 3850 level.
I dont find that level important to hold and think its a low level of support at this point.
The most important thing on Friday was this - the price gaped down below my 3880-86 support level, which was much stronger then 3850 level.
So I think this can still get to 3802-17SPX early next week, ideally on Monday and then move up into a muted action to 3950-60SPX level and reverse lower from there.
Main weekly resistance is 4155-60 with 4015-25 in the middle.
Support levels:
- 3802-17
- 3750-55
- 3735-40
- 3720
- below last number nothing but air till 3636 and my ideal target of 3580, 3550-55 and 3500 even.
My main target for this move is at 3200-10SPX! And I think we will see lower into 2020 higher lows in 2023
Im looking to buy longs tomorrow in 3802-17 zone or just short 3950 zone.
No need in over trading this but the levels of importance!
Have a great weekend, do not over trade, this bear market will get both sides, wait for a good setup to take with higher R/R odds
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S&P500 New sell-off based on the May fractal. Can it be avoided?The S&P500 index (SPX) got sold off aggressively on Monday after a worse than expected CPI report. The price action since the August 16 High appears to be repeating the trading sequence of last May. As you see it seems to be a W structure that pivots off Symmetrical Support and Resistance levels, at least so far. If completed that means that the price should rebound on the lower Symmetrical Support Zone and hit the blue pivot before getting aggressively rejected to a new Low.
Can this new projected sell-off into October be avoided? Yes but if and only if the following set of parameters is met:
* Firstly the 1D RSI rebounds on its Higher Lows trend-line and NOT its 8-month Support Zone and
* Secondly if the US10Y, which on this chart is represented by its inverted shape of the 1-US10Y symbol (black trend-line) for better comparison purposes, pivots off its June 14 Low. As you see that rebound was what started the June 17 - August 16 two-month rally on the stock market.
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SP500- Doomed for a 500 points dropIn my yesterday analysis, I said that SP500 is facing a very strong sell zone above 4.1k and a drop is possible from now on.
CPI data triggered this drop and the index fell hard putting in an immense bearish engulfing on our daily chart.
I expect a resumption of the trend that started at the beginning of the year and is very possible for SP to visit the pre-pandemic high at 3.4k zone.
At this moment the price is 3950, just above confluence support given by the horizontal trend line and the rising trend line started in June and a corrective rally can follow.
This rally should be considered a good selling opportunity by traders and ONLY a break back above 4.2k would change this strongly bearish outlook
Best of luck!
Mihai Iacob
SPX quick updateI want quickly update the SPX chart.
2 scenarios:
1 - we gap down tomorrow
2 - we hold the lows and go up in am
First scenario:
Support is at 3885-86SPX
And nothing till 3800-20
I would be looking for 3775 and ideally 3680 as the main targets before or buy 20-21st.
Second scenario is we see 3970-85SPX tomorrow and sell off into above outlined numbers by 20-21st.
Or we make a higher low and stretch to 4152-55 and ideally above 4200+ to a potential 4295-4300 by same 20-21st.
4145-60 is a very strong resistance!
So all eyes are on the overnight or pre-market action.
Breaking today's lows will be bearish and we closed below my 3955 and especially 3935SPX today, so I favour a gap down in this case.
Holding 3885-86 level tomorrow am, will be a good sign for a potential reversal, below is air till 3800-20SPX
I have positions on both sides and I personally would love to see an extension up into 4155 and even 4295SPX zone before the real crash happens.
Looking for lower levels regardless of the price and ideally we wont get there in one straight line.
Im looking for a low in Oct and that low should be a good buying opportunity going into EOY
Have a good night
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SP500 entering sell zone. 1:3 R:R sell tradeLast week I said that SP500 is drawing a nasty picture and although we can have a rebound from the recent ascending trend line, this will not change the longer-term bearish perspective.
Indeed, we had this rebound and now the SP500 index is trading in a very strong sell zone that is set between 4100 and 4200.
In my opinion, a reversal to the downside will follow from this zone and traders should look for selling opportunities.
This outlook is intact as long as the price is under 4300 and bears can target the previous low for their sell short trades.
SPX gapped up, no Fri sell off repeate, main support is at 4025We didnt get a move down off am highs as I was hoping for, gap up above 4020-35 happen, so the move lower is off the table.
Now 4025 and 4015 are 2 main supports to hold for next week to continue advance. 4085 is next target.
This still can be a fakeout and if we close below am open, and especially below 4015SPX it will be bearish and I will be looking for 3925 to test early next week before push to higher levels.
I got stopped on half short from overnight and holding the other half for the fakeout scenario.
Will hedge at 4025 and 4015 level (will cut if we close below 4015)
So far the pathway up is in play, I dont expect much lower till 4125-35 test and ideally 4200
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S&P500 Rebound on the Golden Ratio +1st Bullish Cross since 2020The S&P500 index (SPX) is staging its first strong rebound since the pull-back started on the August 16 High, a correction that we projected with our analysis below:
The downtrend has stopped on a hugely important Support cluster:
* First and foremost, it hit and rebounded on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (orange one), which is technically known as the Golden Ratio.
* Secondly, it hit and rebounded exactly on the Higher Lows trend-line that started on the June 16 Low. That is the second contact made since.
* Thirdly, the 1D RSI hit and rebounded exactly on its 8-month Support Zone.
Among those Support levels, we should not overlook the highly critical emerging formation of the 1D MA50/100 Bullish Cross. That is when the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is crossing above the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which is considered a technical bullish pattern. If crossed, it will be the first such pattern since the June 17 2020 formation, which was on the market recovery trend-line following the March 2020 COVID crash.
So where do all the above leave us now? We cannot ignore the big Resistance Zone of the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and the January 04 Lower Highs trend-line, that rejected the price on the Aug 16 top. Those are now exactly on top of each other and should be the first important test of the current rebound. A break/ candle close above them should target 4515 level, which is the 3rd Lower High of the downtrend that SPX needs to fill. As you see on the chart, the last two got filled and formed strong Resistance levels in August. At that point onwards, a re-test of the 1D MA200 as a Support, would fuel the uptrend to the All Time High test.
Extra attention is needed though at this stage as if the price is rejected again on the 1D MA50, the rebound attempt may end and if the pull-back causes a 1D candle to close below the 0.618 Fib, then the June Low can be tested and with that the ultimate Support of the 1W MA200 (red trend-line). Set your SLs exactly on the break-out points.
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SP500 is drawing a very nasty pictureAs the title says, SP500 is drawing a very nasty bearish picture.
We can see from the posted chart, that after the low from mid-June, the index started to reverse, and once it has broken above 4100 horizontal resistance I was inclined to think that the correction that started at the beginning of the year is over.
However, after it reached 4.3k zone resistance given by the descending trend line, instead of a small correction and resumption to the up move, the index has broken back under, a break marked by an immense 200 points bearish engulfing (around 5%). This type of price action is a clear indication that bears are not done yet and more losses are around the corner.
At the time of writing, SP500 is trading at 3900, exactly in the confluence support zone and, in my opinion, this level will fall soon.
In an optimistic scenario, a rebound can follow now, but this should be used as an opportunity to sell in anticipation of a break.
The target can be the 3600 low, for now though... SP500 is very probable to drop under.
P.S: Only sustained buying power above 4100 would change my bearish outlook
S&P500 These market dynamics show we're not in a Bear Market yetThis is a cross asset technical analysis on the S&P500 Index (SPX) on the 1M (monthly) time-frame. The symbols included are the Personal Savings Rate (orange trend-line), the Yield Curve Inversion (teal trend-line) and the % of Domestic Banks tightening (black trend-line).
** Personal Savings **
A little background info on what each symbol means. The Personal Savings Rate is the income left over after people spend money and pay taxes. In other words, it is the percentage of the disposable income that people save.
** Yield Curve Inversion **
The Bond Yield Curve Inversion is when the US02Y turns at a higher rate than the US10Y and the curve inversion occurs. The shorter term US02Y is associated with short-term Fed policy while the US10Y takes into account the longer-term growth aspects of the economy. When the curve is inverted it essentially tells us that the bond market expects the Fed to tighten too much relative to the growth. Practically when it bottoms and starts rising, it is an indication that the economy might be headed towards a recession.
** Domestic Banks tightening **
That shows the net percentage of domestic banks tightening standards for commercial and industrial loans to large and medium sized firms. This is also an economic growth indicator.
** Today's picture **
So basically what this chart shows is that since 1990, there have only been another 6 occasions of the above indicators forming the pattern we see today. That is a low Personal Savings Rate, Yield Rate Low and Bank tightening rising aggressively.
- The first was during January 1995 and that was half-way through the 1990s rally that led to the 2000 DotCom Crash.
- Second was in August 1998 , two years before the market top.
- Third was in May 2000 at the peak of the DotCom Bubble.
- Fourth was in September 2005 , half-way through the rally that led to the 2007/08 Housing Crash.
- Fifth was in April 2016 , half-way through the incredible Bull Cycle we are at since the 2009 bottom and after the volatile months of the 2015 Grexit, China slowdown and 2016 Oil crisis.
- Sixth was in August 2019 , right after the market had recovered from the U.S.-China trade war.
The common characteristic on all the above phases besides the the (third) 2000 peak, was that SPX was under heavy volatility, having sizeable pull-backs. Given that we already had a correction since Jan 2022 of almost 25%, this historical dataset shows that it is currently more likely that this pull-back is either in the middle or 2 years before a major recession.
Of course recessions can't be predicted with 100% accuracy and as long as central banks are accommodative, Bull Cycles can be maintained, but this dataset is a fair guideline to where the stock market might be at relative to its Cycle stages.
Do you think this was a much needed correction and the market will resume its multi-year Bull Cycle or we are at the first stages of a Recession?
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S&P500 Outlook on 1H and 1D. The 0.618 Fib is the key.It is 2 weeks ago that we posted the potential correction on the S&P500 (SPX) index after the price got rejection on the 1D MA200:
** 1D time-frame **
Today's analysis looks into the price action both from a 1H (left chart) and a 1D (right chart) time-frame perspective. As you see on 1D, the price hit yesterday the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level and assisted by today's NFP news, it rebounded back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). This caused high volatility in the market and unless the 1D MA50 breaks, we can't expect any further buying pressure.
** 1H time-frame **
The 1D MA50 is practically on the 4020 Resistance set by the August 31 Highs. That takes us to the 1H time-frame (left) where we've set some short-term break-out levels. A break above the Resistance, should be taken as a buy signal targeting the 2.0 Fibonacci extension (4140), while a break below the 3902 Support, should be considered as a bearish break-out signal targeting the Lower Lows trend-line of August.
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S&P500 got rejected as expected. Now testing the first Support.The S&P500 index (SPX) had a strong rejection on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which we caught on the exact spot with our trading idea below 10 days ago:
The timing on this projection couldn't have been better, with early signs of a possible pull-back obvious as the Overbought 1D RSI has always been a trigger for technical pull-backs ever since 2019! This is something we analyzed extensively on that analysis above, so if you want to get more insight on it, click on the idea chart.
Friday saw the strongest 1-day pull-back of this selling sequence and broke below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) as well as the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level and today the index hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) just above the 0.5 Fib level. As mentioned on the previous analysis, since 2019 such rejections on overbought 1D RSI levels have resulted into 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) tests 5 times.
If it holds, a re-test of the 1D MA200 and the January 04 Lower Highs trend-line, which is the top of the 2022 Bearish Megaphone, is possible but unless it breaks, a new Low on the 0.618 Fib is likely.
Only a candle close above the Lower Highs trend-line should be capable of extending this strong rally since June. As mentioned on the previous analysis, we would ideally like to see a break above the 0.618 Fib (from the January 04 ATH), as this is the Golden Ratio. Two factors that strengthen the chances of a bullish break-out is that this time (as opposed to the previous Megaphone Lower High rejection), 1) the MACD on the 1W chart is on a Bullish Cross, the first since November 05 2021 and 2) the 1D MA50 is close to crossing above the 1D MA100, which would be the first such Bullish Cross since June 16 2020 that was at the start of a 1 year and a half rally (see charts below):
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Gapping up into reversal in the short term?it appears to be a now mildly bullish sentiment in the short term, but a period of uncertainty with low volatility.
what technical indicators does anyone think were present for today's short term reversal?
S&P500 seeking two Support levels for the next leg upwards.The S&P500 Index (SPX) had a perfect rejection on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), exactly after our analysis last week:
As you see, the rejection was not just on the 1D MA200 but also on the January 04 Lower Highs trend-line, essentially the Lower Highs trend-line starting from the All Time High (ATH). As we mentioned on that previous analysis, the rejection took place once the 1D RSI broke into the Overbought Territory. We made a good case that in the recent past however, such RSI overbought breaks, have proved to be only short-term index price rejections and technical pull-backs mostly attributed to profit taking.
To be more precise, since 2019 such rejections on overbought 1D RSI levels have resulted into 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) tests 5 times, 1D MA100 (green trend-line) tests 1 time and 1D MA200 tests 2 times (but when price action was much more flat and of course we were not into such a high inflation correction). Scroll the chart to the left to see those. Currently the 1D MA100 is trading towards the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level from the Aug 16 High, while the 1D MA50 on the 0.5 Fib. If this is indeed the first rally of a new long-term Bull Phase, those are the Support levels to consider.
But if the pattern since the ATH is a Bearish Megaphone, what gives the impression that it may be the first rally into a new Bull Phase? Well as you see on the snapshot below, the MACD on the 1W time-frame rose after a huge Bullish Cross, the first since November 05 2021. Also the 1W RSI broke above its Nov 19 2021 Lower Highs trend-line and made a high above the previous Lower High of April 01.
In the event of a 1D MA200 break-out, we would ideally like to see a break above the 0.618 Fib (from the January 04 ATH), as this is the Golden Ratio.
Also keep an eye on the RSI symmetrical Support Zone after Overbought rejections, for clues on where the price may rebound. We already broke inside it.
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S&P500 All time High trend-line is rejecting the uptrend!The S&P500 index (SPX) hit 3 days ago the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and got rejected. But perhaps an even more important development than that is the fact that this rejection also took place on the January 04 Lower Highs trend-line, practically the Resistance trend-line that started from the All Time High (ATH). We've been talking about the important of this trend-line since the March 29 Lower High but more recently warned you about on our July 27 analysis, where we gave the 2nd major break-out buy signal of the June rally:
As you see, the 1D MA200 happens to be almost exactly where the 1W MA50 is, making it a major Resistance. The bearish sentiment gets even stronger, if we take a look at the 1D RSI, which is being rejected after breaking into the +70.00 Overbought Territory last Friday. In the recent past however, such RSI overbought breaks, have proved to be only short-term index price rejections and technical pull-backs mostly attributed to profit taking. After all, since the June 16 Low, the S&P500 has rallied almost +19%, the biggest non-pullback rally since September 02 2020!
Just a reminder, we accurately captured the exact start of this mega rally with our analysis on June 20:
To be more precise, since 2019 such rejections on overbought 1D RSI levels have resulted into 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) tests 5 times, 1D MA100 (green trend-line) tests 1 time and 1D MA200 tests 2 times (but when price action was much more flat and of course we were not into such a high inflation correction). Scroll the chart to the left to see those. Currently the 1D MA100 is trading towards the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level from the Aug 16 High, while the 1D MA50 on the 0.5 Fib. If this is indeed the first rally of a new long-term Bull Phase, those are the Support levels to consider.
In the event of a 1D MA200 break-out, we would ideally like to see a break above the 0.618 Fib (from the January 04 ATH), as this is the Golden Ratio. In both cases, the risk is very low being so close to the 1D MA200 and the Jan Lower Highs trend-line, so if you are a short-term trader, manage your trades accordingly.
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SPX flagging, there is a good setup for a good size gap down SPX flagging, there is a good setup for a good size gap down tomorrow.
Again has to gap down below 4255-57SPX to mark the top being in place (reference to March topping pattern)
If we gap down to 4189-4207SPX (the bottom of the channel) and hold it early from the open, then I will go long for a move up into the close.
If this is what will play out, then we should re-test 4308.50-23 on Monday with a gap up and crap.
So must watch number for tomorrow is 4189-4207. Must gap down below 4255 to have this setup more probable!
Some good setups are coming, just need to be patient.
Maj resistance is at 4308.5SPX on closing level.
