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Spxshort

SPX market turning point and EW countThanks for viewing. Interesting times indeed. Apologies about the clutter, I was unwilling to remove my overlaid graph of Shiller PE - which has dropped 11% since January signalling a market turning point. So I though I would post again with a more detailed wave count - please note I have placed a fibonacci retracement overlay for the current wave only. However, if this is the final wave in the cycle then the retracement should be for the entire structure not just the 2009 to present wave. I am not a market mover or even a market participant - just an interested observer. The likelihood I am able to call the top of the S&P bull Supercycle - which started in the 1800s - is not high. My tentative expectations: After the ending ABC zig-zag correction investors will have taken a significant hit and may be quickly reconsidering investing in volatile high PE ratio equities while much safer fixed interest investments returns are rising (I expect 10 year treasury bonds to to top 4.1% in 2020). Pattern traders will see something like a "head an shoulders" topping pattern and may sell / short the market (personally I don't trade chart patterns). EW traders will see that a correction is inbound and potentially do the same. Other traders will see a lower high and a lower low. Volume will tail off as all traders / investors wait to see what develops. This will continue until PE ratios return to levels that provide a more attractive return on investment. In William Poundstone's "How to Predict the Unpredictable," he recommends selling equities when the PE is both above 30 and dips from its highs by 5%+ (these 2 requirements are now met for the S&P) and then rebuying when PE reaches 13. The likelihood that money will rush in to form support for a new push up is low in my opinion in light of the already over-extended PE ratios, high market volatility, global instability, high debt levels, increasingly attractive fixed income options, and tailing off of QE.
SP:SPXShort
by flyinkiwi10
SPX approaching support, potential bounce!SPX is approaching our first support at 2678 (horizontal swing low support, 61.8%, 100% Fibonacci extension , 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ) where a strong bounce might occur above this level pushing price up to our major resistance at 2791.8 (horizontal overlap resistance, 100% Fibonacci extension). Stochastic (55,5,3) is seeing a bullish divergence and also approaching support we might see a corresponding rise in price should it bounce off this level.
FOREXCOM:SPX500Long
by FlowState
SPX is approaching resistance, potential drop! SPX is approaching our first resistance at 2810.4 (horizontal overlap resistance, 50% Fibonacci retracement, breakout level, 61.8% Fibonacci extension) and a strong drop might occur below this level pushing price down to our major support at 2680.5 (horizontal swing low support, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8%, 100% Fibonacci extension). Ichimoku cloud is also showing signs of bearish bias in line with our bearish bias. RSI (34) is also seeing a bearish exit and we might see a corresponding drop in price.
FOREXCOM:SPX500Short
by FlowState
3
SPX approaching resistance, potential drop! SPX is approaching our first resistance at 2792.6 (horizontal overlap resistance, 38.2% fibonacci retracement, breakout level) and a strong drop might occur below this level pushing price down to our first support at 2699.0 (horizontal swing low support, 100% fibonacci extension, 61.8% fibonacci retracement). Ichimoku cloud is also showing signs of bearish pressure in line with our bearish bias. RSI (55) is also seeing a bearish exit and we might see a corresponding drop in price.
FOREXCOM:SPX500Short
by FlowState
1
SPX approaching resistance, potential drop! SPX is approaching our first resistance at 2792.6 (horizontal overlap resistance, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, breakout level) and price might potentially drop below this level to our major support at 2699.0 (horizontal swing low support, 100% Fibonacci extension, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement). Ichimoku cloud is also showing signs of bearish pressure in line with our bearish bias. RSI (34) is also seeing a bearish exit and we might see a corresponding drop in price.
FOREXCOM:SPX500Short
by FlowState
1
SPX approaching resistance, potential drop! SPX is approaching our first resistance at 2792 .2 (horizonal overlap resistance, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement) and a strong drop might occur below this level pushing price down to our major support at 2699.0 (horizontal swing low support, 100% Fibonacci extension, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement). Ichimoku cloud is also showing signs of bearish pressure in line with our bearish bias. RSI (89) is also seeing a bearish exit and we might see a corresponding drop in price.
FOREXCOM:SPX500Short
by FlowState
Part 10 - Risk-off August - SPXUSD 4HSNP500 – Resistance & Support: Resistance: 2835.00 / 2875.00 / 2920.00 Support: 2785.00 / 2700.00 / 2600.00 / / 2500.00 / 2475.00 SNP500 – Summary: Expected to complete Intermediate B (red) correction at or around the 2835.00 Levels. Impulsive Bearish Wave expected to start at or around the 2835.00 Levels. If an overshoot and a Bullish Swing would occur, then a strong resistance could reflect the 2875.00 Levels. In case of an imminent spike in volatility and a massive sell-off to occur, then SNP500 could pose sharp losses even until the 2500.00 levels.
FOREXCOM:SPX500Short
by Lionheart-EWA
1
SPX Market Top? The Immediate Future Looks BadLet's look at a few things here - First: Based on the last down swing we have reached the 1.272 extension which, based off the patterns taught by Larry Pesavento, is a key extension for trend reversal (the other, 1.618 I have on the chart as well, as that'd be the next target if this one fails). Second: Volume is telling us a similar story, I added my relative volume oscillator to show how volume has been below average on upswings, then above average on sell offs. These moves haven't had any confirmation volume on the way up which looks bearish for the future (looks worse on weekly and monthly charts). Third: Major RSI divergence - which is my go to for catching trend reversals. This too gets worse on the weekly and monthly charts. Fourth: the immediate pattern is an ascending broadening wedge - more bearish immediate implications. I don't think there's a question regarding IF we go down here - just how far? I am extremely bearish long term so I think you know my answer. I'd also like you to take a look at this post from @Ajion showing that the current pattern has major resemblances to the market top in 2000 during the dot com bubble, a link to his post is beneath this.
SP:SPXShort
by J-Streak
Future Target Extensions on SPX using Wicks and ClosesJust posting this so I can refer back to it later. These are the extension targets for SPX based on the future price target projections pulled from the January 26th peak. The index broke out the descending triangle so at the point of the breakout I have the High to Low measurement in yellow, and the High Close to Low Close measurement in bright blue (with the extensions in matching colors). *Note - Failed pattern breakouts tend to deflect at these extension levels, so just because the measured target is high, doesn't necessarily mean that the price will reach this level.
SP:SPX
by J-Streak
S&P 500 near to max drawdown?Since the last ATH in january (2848) the S&P 500 has fallen in steps (see trend lines). The trend line at about 2.800 is a strong resistance. At this level the bears take over and the bulls flee out of the stocks. And at about 2.700 or at least at 2.600 the game changes its direction. Actually the index has just turned and is heading towards the 2.800 level. On the way up we see different possibilities, coming from the TA and chart patterns. 1) S&P reaches the peak of the little triangle, gains momentum and rockets to the old ATH If there is not enough momentum the bears take over and the index drops to the lower limit of the triangle 2) S&P takes a longer run and reaches the 2.800 - swing trend line; bears take over and the course falls into the bigger triangle 3) If 2 has taken part and S&P rebounds on the lower limit of the triangle (or on the lower limit of the trend channel), then it´ll reach the peak of the bigger triangle. Compared with the correction in february (the opening of the triangle) the correction could lead to the fib retracement 78,6% (2.400)
SP:SPXShort
by Luettis
SPX - Half Way ThereThis is a re-post of a chart from one month ago after the dow dropped 700 points in one day. My extrapolation from that post compared this to 1987, in which there was a 2 year run up, and then a quick crash which erased 1 years worth of gains. While this 2018 crash appears to be slower in time than 1987's two month crash period, the charts nonetheless look the same to me. If we extrapolate, then SPX's current price has only reached half way to where it will eventually bottom out, which should be around 2380.
SP:SPXShort
by Trader9898