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SPX (S&P 500 Index)

SPX macro analysis ⏰ Hello 👋 it's me your RAJ 🙂 professional trader ✨ This idea 💡 is completely my own analysis to explain situation _&_ market conditions of CBOE:SPX How this chart valid for long term 📌 explained clearly based on technical #TA 📌 #DYOR Let's go with market conditions 1st 👉 PPL 📌 thinking 🤔 big crash in S&P500 , based on economy and some other theories I don't this things go , if this happens 😂 it will vanish not only stocks or companies even goverment also get vanish Money 💰 >> PPL work / save in -> gold , bank & stocks Money 💰 >> banks -> save in ->> gold , stocks & giving loan to company & PPL 📌 Money 💰 >> companies -> save in future growth 📈 give return to retailers and keep on increasing vlaue for future like NASDAQ:AAPL , NASDAQ:GOOG , NASDAQ:AMD etc .... if stocks lose 📌 PPL lose 📌 if ppl lose 📌 goverment also lose 📌 biggest revaluation 😂 This is the major index ☝️ for many stocks , did you think 🤔 it will crash 🩸 that much harder 🙂 Use 🧠 👀 Let's go with my technical analysis ⏰ #TA ->> how I am expecting macro growth 💹 👀 There tend line 🙄 at previous High 2022 > to < 2023 which actually promised trend 📉 line and even turned as resistance 📌 for 1.2yr + Finally it was broken and re-test also done 👍 turned as support 📌 💜💚 🚀 👀 According technical analysis 📌 my analysis get Invalid 📌 when month close below $3800.2 👀 There was oder block strong 🚀 support 📌 in 3 - month $4000-4200 👀 The previous order block at $4300 & $4600 easily broken 😂 These and some other theories making me push towards new high 💰 Expecting target's 🎯 🎯 :: $4880-$5018 ( easy target ) 🎯 :: $5324-$5469 ( 💯 target ) 🎯 :: $5885-$6484 ( high pressure resistance ) Support 📌 $3900-4200 This is my analysis on S&P500 on macro , i will post other patterns and chart of technical as per education under this post 📌 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 🪩 disclaimer : ▶️ TQ u for supporting 💚 follow idea 💡 get updates everytime ⏰ when I updated 📌 Note 👀 👉 keeping comments , reacting with emojis , pointing us is very easy to some people They think 💬 what they see 📌 that was knowledge 📌 We need to learn market in many ways and should get adopted with experience, TECHNICAL ANALYSIS won't help understanding market structure and understanding bull 🐂 and bear 🐻 is more important Economical conditions Fundamentals Technical News Sentiments Checking macro to micro having good plan and build it is very important ☺️ Some Times market easily turn suddenly bear // bull 🤣 even we need to catch 🫴 those movements is also very important ☺️ 💛 I hope i cleared my view 🙂 if any points if I miss I will add in update 📌 post Try to understand, try to learn - try to move with flexibility with market is important Have good day 😊
SP:SPXLong
by raj5_7_5
S&P 500 is climbing upwardsS&P 500 is climbing upwards The S&P 500 rebounded with a modest 0.36% gain today. The market’s move reflects ongoing digestion of mixed US economic data, supportive seasonality, and cautious optimism among investors. US Economic Data Highlights Data provided a mixed snapshot of the US economy, contributing to the market’s recent fluctuations: - **EIA Crude Oil Inventories:** Fell by -1.844M barrels, exceeding the forecast of -1M, signaling tighter supply conditions. - **US GDP Growth (Q3, Second Estimate):** Steady at 2.8%, unchanged from the previous estimate, highlighting consistent economic expansion. - **Personal Consumption and Spending:** October’s real personal consumption rose by just 0.1% (forecast: 0.2%), while consumer spending grew by 0.4%, meeting expectations but showing a slowdown from revised data of 0.6%. - **Durable Goods Orders:** Increased by 0.2%, falling short of the 0.5% forecast, reflecting weaker demand for long-term goods. - **PCE Price Index (YoY):** Increased to 2.3%, matching expectations but higher than the prior 2.1%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures. Market Sentiment and Seasonality Seasonality continues to work in favor of the S&P 500, as historical trends during this period often support equities. The **Fear & Greed Index**, currently at **64 points**, reflects moderate optimism and a "Greed" sentiment, which typically aligns with risk-on behavior in the markets. Rate Cut Expectations Markets remain focused on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting on **December 18th**, with a **66,3%% probability** currently priced in for a **25 basis-point rate cut**. Such a move could provide additional support for equities by easing financial conditions, though its long-term impact remains uncertain. Geopolitical Risks While market sentiment has improved slightly, risks remain in the background. The ongoing war in Ukraine continues to pose threats to global stability, with potential knock-on effects on energy prices, supply chains, and economic performance. Long-Term Trend Intact, but Volatility Likely The S&P 500’s long-term upward trend remains intact, bolstered by supportive seasonality, stable GDP growth, and investor optimism. However, the current environment of mixed economic data and rising policy uncertainty suggests that market volatility could persist in the short term. Broader Context Yesterday’s data underscored a steady but moderating US economy, while forward-looking risks remain: - **Global Economic Outlook:** The S&P Global forecast anticipates global GDP growth of approximately 3% by 2025, with US growth slowing to below 2% next year and China toward 4%. - **US Policy Risks:** Potential policy shifts under the new administration could elevate inflation pressures and tighten financial conditions, introducing further uncertainty for equity markets. Implications for S&P 500 Today’s modest gain shows resilience in the face of mixed signals from economic data and global risks. With supportive seasonality and a strong likelihood of a December rate cut, the S&P 500 may find short-term support. However, investors should remain vigilant, as volatility is likely to persist amid policy uncertainties and geopolitical risks. What’s your outlook for the S&P 500 after today’s rebound? Can the market sustain its gains, or will headwinds from mixed data and global risks take over? Share your thoughts in the comments!
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by InvestMate
2
100% upside The Best Level to BUY/HOLD TSLA🔸Hello traders, today let's review 4hour chart for TSLA. Strong push after the Trump elections victory recently, however expecting limited upside immediately going forward TSLA facing strong overhead resistance at 360/415 this will cap upside short-term. 🔸Almost 100% gains off the lows with this recent bullish rally, so expecting pullback/correction on profit taking intro key S/R zone at 360/415 usd. Having said that chart pattern looks strong and I expect more future gains in TSLA after the pullback. 🔸Recommended strategy bulls: wait for TSLA to pullback after we hit overhead resistance at/near 360/415 usd, best reload zone bulls is 265/275 usd this is also an area with liquidity gap so will get re-tested before the bull run resumes. Final TP bulls +100% gains 500/550 USD. 🎁Please hit the like button and 🎁Leave a comment to support our team! RISK DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss. Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by ProjectSyndicate
26
US Equity Secular Bull Cycle, $SPX 24' Price Target, 2025 BeyondUS EQUITY S&P 500 INDEX BOHAN The S&P 500 Index SP:SPX monthly chart: Over the past 30 years, the US stock market has weathered the personal computer cycle, the dot-com bubble, the social media cycle, and the subprime mortgage crisis. The most recent epic crash was the 2020 pandemic. Since then, the US stock market has continued its secular bull cycle, fueled by quantitative easing (QE) that began in 2008. We saw a bull market from 2020-2021 driven by QE, a bear market in 2022 due to interest rate hikes, and now, in 2023-2024, we are entering the Web 3.0 and AI era. So, where is the next epic crash? And will there be another bull cycle after that? 1.) No one can accurately predict the market. The first step to improving your COGNITION is to grasp the rules of the human system. The essence of society is that the rich exploit the poor, and the essence of the stock market is that institutions exploit retail investors. Only market makers, institutions, and family offices know what's going on because they set the game, and we're just playing it. As retail investors, the best we can do is improve our cognition, conduct in-depth research on the US stock market, and arrive at high-probability answers. 2.) Understanding dollar dominance is key to understanding society. The US established a new world order, shifting societal control from religion to currency. Wars are fought to defend the dollar's status. After the gold standard was abolished, the US dollar became the world's reserve currency, effectively ruling the world. The long bull and short bear cycles in the US stock market rarely stem from fundamentals like earnings per share (EPS). They are mostly driven by the Federal Reserve's unlimited quantitative easing (QE) Cycles - printing money, issuing bonds, having debtor nations foot the bill, and injecting liquidity into the stock market. Therefore, the US equity market is essentially a liquidity platform. Unless there's a World War III, US assets are the only ones suitable for long-term investment due to currency dominance. Invest long-term, dollar-cost average, and if there's an epic crash, keep buying the dip. 3.) S&P 500 (SPX) target price for the end of 2024: 6200+ Macros: The Fed's broad money supply (M2) is still growing, and QE continues. Fundamentals: Strong corporate earnings growth, fueled by the AI era. Technical: A 4-year weekly uptrend channel since 2020, plus institutional positioning JPMorgan's JPM Collar Positions: STO SPX 6055 C DEC 21 @$50.00 + x 39600) indicates significant buying pressure. 4.) Expecting a pullback in 2025, but the secular bull market will persist. Macros: Short-term cyclical factors like tariffs might have an impact, but the long-term trend remains intact due to continued QE. Fundamentals: Big tech valuations might become more reasonable, especially Nvidia. However, long-term EPS for Nvidia could reach $4.00, and overall corporate earnings growth remains strong. Technical: The 4-year weekly uptrend channel might encounter resistance, and the JPM Collar positions could see a shift from buying to selling. However, significant open interest in SPX options with high gamma at 6300, 6500, and 7000 suggests institutional bullishness for mid-2025. Even with a 15% to 20% correction, we should continue to buy the dip, as the secular bull cycle is expected to persist. 5.) The secular bull cycle is projected to last from 2008 to 2030. An epic crash might occur at the end of this cycle, followed by another major bull market. The potential cause of the crash would be the end of QE and a resulting liquidity crisis. This is speculation, of course, but the principle of dollar dominance suggests that as long as US hegemony remains, any crash presents a buying opportunity. *The above analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.*
SP:SPXLong
by BOHAN94
2024-11-28 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. sp500 e-mini futures - Same as for dax. Retest of yesterday’s open price and bears could only correct sideways and biggest dip was 5 points. Big bull trend line was support and we are on our way up. I expect 6040 and probably higher. If not tomorrow then next month. We have a perfect channel upwards which leads 6100+. I don’t think bears can even get below 6015 again. If they do, 6000 has to hold or we could have seen the highs. comment: Not much difference to my dax outlook. Relentless buying today, ath in sight and a decent channel upwards. Bears need something below 6000 to make bulls cover. Big bullish bias for me. Possible that we stay around 6000-6050 for November, to then do the Santa rally somewhere in December. Closing 2024 above 6000 would be amazing for bulls. current market cycle: bull trend key levels: 6000 - 6050 (above 6050 comes 6100 in play) bull case : Higher lows and higher highs. Clear invalidation price given and big resistance above. I doubt bears can get this below 6010/6015 tomorrow. Only longs for me. If we stall around 6040, you should have a tight stop and from a r:r perspective, new longs above 6040 are bad. Invalidation is below 6010. bear case: Bears need something below 6000. That’s it. How likely is that? Look at the daily chart. Is there any bearishness in there? Invalidation is above 6050. short term : Bullish. medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-16: So the top definitely qualifies as a blow-off top but the question if we continue further up, is still valid. It is possible that we are already inside the correction and if we continue below 5860, I highly doubt bulls can get above 6000 again. Given the current market structure, I won’t turn bear because the risk of another retest of the highs or even higher ones are just too big. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Could have bought pretty much anywhere.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by priceactiontds
S&P 500: A +0.2% Gain Following a Day of DeclineS&P 500: A +0.2% Gain Following a Day of Decline The S&P 500 rebounded with a modest 0.2% gain today, recovering some ground after yesterday’s 0.5% decline. The market’s move reflects ongoing digestion of mixed US economic data, supportive seasonality, and cautious optimism among investors. US Economic Data Highlights Yesterday’s data provided a mixed snapshot of the US economy, contributing to the market’s recent fluctuations: - **EIA Crude Oil Inventories:** Fell by -1.844M barrels, exceeding the forecast of -1M, signaling tighter supply conditions. - **US GDP Growth (Q3, Second Estimate):** Steady at 2.8%, unchanged from the previous estimate, highlighting consistent economic expansion. - **Personal Consumption and Spending:** October’s real personal consumption rose by just 0.1% (forecast: 0.2%), while consumer spending grew by 0.4%, meeting expectations but showing a slowdown from revised data of 0.6%. - **Durable Goods Orders:** Increased by 0.2%, falling short of the 0.5% forecast, reflecting weaker demand for long-term goods. - **PCE Price Index (YoY):** Increased to 2.3%, matching expectations but higher than the prior 2.1%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures. Market Sentiment and Seasonality Seasonality continues to work in favor of the S&P 500, as historical trends during this period often support equities. The **Fear & Greed Index**, currently at **64 points**, reflects moderate optimism and a "Greed" sentiment, which typically aligns with risk-on behavior in the markets. Rate Cut Expectations Markets remain focused on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting on **December 18th**, with a **66,3%% probability** currently priced in for a **25 basis-point rate cut**. Such a move could provide additional support for equities by easing financial conditions, though its long-term impact remains uncertain. Geopolitical Risks While market sentiment has improved slightly, risks remain in the background. The ongoing war in Ukraine continues to pose threats to global stability, with potential knock-on effects on energy prices, supply chains, and economic performance. Long-Term Trend Intact, but Volatility Likely The S&P 500’s long-term upward trend remains intact, bolstered by supportive seasonality, stable GDP growth, and investor optimism. However, the current environment of mixed economic data and rising policy uncertainty suggests that market volatility could persist in the short term. Broader Context Yesterday’s data underscored a steady but moderating US economy, while forward-looking risks remain: - **Global Economic Outlook:** The S&P Global forecast anticipates global GDP growth of approximately 3% by 2025, with US growth slowing to below 2% next year and China toward 4%. - **US Policy Risks:** Potential policy shifts under the new administration could elevate inflation pressures and tighten financial conditions, introducing further uncertainty for equity markets. Implications for S&P 500 Today’s modest gain shows resilience in the face of mixed signals from economic data and global risks. With supportive seasonality and a strong likelihood of a December rate cut, the S&P 500 may find short-term support. However, investors should remain vigilant, as volatility is likely to persist amid policy uncertainties and geopolitical risks. What’s your outlook for the S&P 500 after today’s rebound? Can the market sustain its gains, or will headwinds from mixed data and global risks take over? Share your thoughts in the comments!
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by InvestMate
1
Holiday Trading Plan Nov 28th & 29thNOTE: This trade plan is for the next two days. Both Thursday and Friday are half days for futures closing at 1pm EST. The NYSE is closed tomorrow, but open for a half day Friday. Volatility and volume will be very light and setups will be limited. The below levels are also for two sessions, which means they may be less precise than usual as I am basically averaging two days. I will post any real-time revisions and updates in private group as the day goes on. Plan for Thursday and Friday’s Sessions Supports: • Major: 6009, 5993-89, 5963, 5952, 5933, 5921, 5908, 5878-5880, 5850-55, 5837, 5818-22, 5802, 5773, 5757-59. • Minor: 6002, 5998, 5981, 5972, 5967, 5957, 5942, 5928, 5902, 5892, 5885, 5869, 5864, 5842, 5828, 5812, 5806, 5790, 5782, 5766. Resistances: • Major: 6025-28, 6045-50, 6069, 6089, 6112, 6121, 6134, 6152, 6185, 6195, 6214, 6232, 6245, 6263, 6271-76. • Minor: 6017, 6033, 6039, 6055, 6062, 6076, 6082, 6095, 6117, 6142, 6163, 6171, 6200, 6208, 6225, 6238, 6256. Context and Strategy: The market remains in a large consolidation base between 5993-89 and 6045-50, with numerous key levels within this congested range (6009, 6025). I am still holding my 10% long runner from the ~6002 add this afternoon. With the next two sessions being holiday trading days, do not over-trade. These sessions will likely have low volume, low liquidity, and a higher failure rate for setups due to the absence of substantial institutional participation. Most holiday sessions tend to drift higher, but this is not guaranteed. Friday morning could see some better moves, but my bias is to avoid entries until Monday and let my runner continue working. Key Levels to Watch: 1. 6009 (Major Support): This is the first downside test, but it has been heavily worked already. Unlikely to provide a strong setup without fresh demand. 2. 5993-89 (Critical Support): A retest here provides a safer long opportunity if bulls defend this level again. Look for a possible Failed Breakdown at this level to confirm demand remains intact. 3. 6025-28 (Major Resistance): This area remains a key upside test. Reaction here could determine whether bulls can push higher or if the range tightens further. Scenarios for Thursday and Friday: Bull Case: 1. Hold 5993-89: As long as bulls defend this zone, the range remains intact, and ES can build structure for another push higher. This could look like a test of 6025-28, a minor dip, and then a re-test of 6045-50. 2. Breakout Above 6045-50: If bulls clear this resistance, the next targets are 6069, then 6089. Further upside could extend toward 6112 and beyond. 3. Ultra Bullish Scenario: ES skips further downside tests entirely, flagging above 6009 and pushing directly to test 6025-28. A breakout here sets the stage for continuation toward the highs. ** I’d normally give a spot to add on strength but we have two holiday sessions ahead so this is impossible to do without seeing the action real-time. Bear Case: 1. Breakdown Below 5993-89: For a short setup, patience is critical. The ideal entry comes after: • A final bounce attempt at 5993-89, or • A failed breakdown of today’s low that fizzles out, ensuring the demand from this level has been exhausted. Enter short only after sellers flush below the structure’s lows (e.g., 5986 or higher), confirming that demand has been taken off the table. This reduces the risk of being trapped by a reversal. Refer to Edu Section for example. 2. Targets on Breakdown: If 5993-89 fails and momentum builds, watch for a test of 5963, 5952, or even a failed breakdown recovery around 5972. Be cautious as breakdown trades are low win-rate setups and prone to trapping shorts unless confirmed. Summary for Thursday and Friday: • Bullish Lean: As long as 5993-89 holds, the market remains in consolidation. This favors a move toward 6025-28, followed by an eventual breakout to 6069, 6089, and higher. • Bearish Risks: A loss of 5993-89 could trigger a deeper sell-off to 5963, 5952, or beyond. Short setups require patience and confirmation of seller strength. Holiday trading requires extra caution. Avoid chasing moves, focus on high-probability setups, and let price confirm structure before taking trades. Remember: Low liquidity can lead to erratic moves. Stay disciplined and prioritize capital preservation.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ESMorg
Thanksgiving Thoughts on SPXHoliday Idea: I spy a two bar pattern for the last two weeks; Piercing Candlestick Pattern. A slight pullback may be possible. Above this week's close, I will target the previous week's open/high. A caution is that I see this on the weekly chart near ATH. A flip would be a break and close below last week's candle (5850). If we gap down Monday due to the location of that close, I'll wait to see if we get back above 5850. So I'm resting and betting on my understanding. Google Homework: piercing line candlestick pattern
SP:SPXLong
by mommymiles
S&P500 Don't expect the rally to stop now.Our last S&P500 (SPX) analysis (November 18, see chart below) gave us the ideal buy entry on the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, with the price immediately responding with a rebound: The rebound took place on the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and we are now even past the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). Despite the strong uptrend, this rally is far from over technically, as not only is the 4H RSI below the (70.00) overbought barrier where it has given the first bearish signs near the two previous Higher Highs, but also significantly lower than the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the September 06 Channel Up. As a result we expect a continuation of the current Bullish Leg. The previous one peaked on the 1.786 Fibonacci extension, so our Target is now just below it at 6150. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingShot
1
Custom Crash Index Indicates Global Markets Are PanickingI believe the global markets are panicking related to Trump's pending inauguration and the fact that the US Fed may have to keep interest rates elevated through a US austerity process. If you understand what this means, you'll clearly see why the US Dollar is trading above 106 and why Gold/Silver have moved downward recently. The process of the US moving into smaller government with potentially $1.?T in excess capital means the US would move into a dynamic BEAST of a global economy. Able to pay down debt, restructure government agencies to become more efficient and lean, while pushing global economies closer and closer to having to clean up their own mess. This is what I call the Predatory Fed.. and will likely prompt some very big price moves over the next 4-5+ years. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:XLFLong
by BradMatheny
S&P 500 Technical Analysis Ascending Triangle vs Rising Wedge I've identified two potential patterns on the S&P 500 SP:SPX chart: Ascending Triangle (blue trendlines): Higher lows and flat highs, with breakout potential above the flat top or a breakdown below the higher lows. Indicated by blue arrows. Rising Wedge Developing (red trend lines and arrows): Higher highs and higher lows, with a potential bearish breakout below the lower trend line or a less common bullish breakout above the upper trend line. Red arrows highlight the touch points on the rising wedge pattern. Pattern Rules: For a valid pattern, the following rules apply: Ascending Triangle: At least two higher lows Flat highs Decreasing volume Breakout above the flat top or breakdown below the higher lows Rising Wedge: At least three touch points on each trend line (I will use as few as 2) Higher highs and higher lows Decreasing volume Breakout below the lower trend line or above the upper trend line (less common) Quick Review for Beginners: New to chart patterns? Here's a quick rundown: Higher lows: A series of lows that are higher than the previous ones. Flat highs: A series of highs that are roughly the same level. Decreasing volume: The trading volume decreases as the pattern forms. Breakout: When the price moves above or below the pattern's boundary. Trend lines: Lines drawn to connect the highs or lows of a pattern. Keep in mind that chart patterns are not a guarantee of future price movements, but rather a tool to help identify potential trends and trading opportunities.
SP:SPXLong
by Paul_Hodls
S&P 500 Weekly Recap: A Struggle to RecoverLast week’s market action reflected the ongoing struggle for recovery after the previous week’s sell-off. The market opened cautiously, with buyers stepping in to regain ground lost during the prior downturn. Despite early hesitation, bulls managed to push prices higher, eventually filling the gap created by the earlier sell-off. However, this recovery faced significant resistance from sellers, resulting in minimal upward progression in daily closes. Strength in the recovery was primarily driven by Financials (XLF), which set a new all-time high. Other sectors, however, remained subdued, aligning with the broader market's hesitant tone. While this selectivity isn’t necessarily negative on its own, when combined with other signals, it may indicate growing risk aversion and a lack of conviction among market participants. It is also worth zooming into the lower timeframes. The 584 level provided key support but was retested multiple times during the week, which is not a good sign for buyers. Persistent tests of support typically indicate weakening demand, and bulls should be cautious of this development. Additionally, it was remarkable to observe how the rally went precisely to the Value Area Low ( 596 ) of the previous consolidation zone. Buyers should note that the market failed to push higher and close within the value area, signaling potential exhaustion of the current recovery attempt. The immediate objective for the bulls is to push above 596 , reclaiming the previous value area, which would provide stronger validation for the recovery. On the other hand, bears will be focused on taking down the 584 level, where there is likely big liquidity pool. Next week is rich in terms of key events. The FOMC minutes are scheduled for release on Tuesday, preceded by significant economic data on Wednesday. These releases will be closely scrutinized as investors remain deeply concerned about the possibility of a recession. Any signals pointing toward a slowing economy could spark fear and trigger increased volatility. While the long-term market trend remains intact, the warning signs outlined above suggest that investors should hold off on adding to their positions for the time being. P.S. ES futures are currently rising in the pre-market session. If this momentum doesn't transform into a sell-off after the bell, it will certainly be a positive sign for the buyers.
AMEX:SPY
by hermes_trisme
S&P 500: Gains Driven by Data, Eyes on Key Events Next WeekS&P 500: Gains Driven by Data, Eyes on Key Events Next Week The S&P 500 ended the week on a positive note, buoyed by strong economic data, robust corporate earnings, and supportive seasonality. However, investors are shifting their focus to critical upcoming events: the FOMC meeting on Tuesday and the PCE inflation report on Wednesday. These events have the potential to set the tone for the markets for the remainder of the year. Mixed Economic Data The past week brought a blend of economic data, with some encouraging signals and a few disappointments: Initial Jobless Claims (Nov. 16): At 213K, the result came in better than the 220K consensus, underscoring the resilience of the labor market and reducing recession fears. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov.): Disappointed at -5.5 against expectations of 8, reflecting continued weakness in the manufacturing sector. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (Nov.): Came in at 71.8, below the 73.7 forecast, indicating a slight dip in consumer confidence. S&P Global Services PMI Flash (Nov.): Surprised to the upside with a reading of 57.0, exceeding the expected 55.2, highlighting the strength of the services sector. Nvidia Shines Bright Corporate earnings added to the bullish sentiment, led by Nvidia's impressive Q3 results. The company reported revenue of 35.08 billion dollars, significantly above the consensus estimate of 33.17 billion dollars. As a leader in AI-related technology and semiconductors, Nvidia's results lifted the broader tech sector and contributed to the S&P 500’s gains. Market Sentiment and Seasonality The Fear & Greed Index currently stands at 61, in the "Greed" zone, indicating a risk-on environment as investors show confidence in equities. Seasonality also plays a crucial role. Historically, the S&P 500 benefits from end-of-year trends, especially in an election year, when policymakers often aim to maintain market stability. Challenges Ahead While the current momentum is positive, the market faces significant tests next week with two major events: FOMC Meeting (Tuesday): The Federal Reserve’s policy decisions and commentary will be in the spotlight. Investors will look for signals on whether the Fed plans to pause or keep the door open for further rate hikes in 2024. PCE Inflation Report (Wednesday): The core PCE inflation data, the Fed's preferred measure of price pressures, could shape expectations for monetary policy. A higher-than-expected reading might increase concerns about further tightening, while a lower figure would reinforce the soft landing narrative. Lingering Risks In addition to the upcoming macroeconomic events, investors remain wary of: Trade Policy: Former President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on imported goods could stoke inflation and weigh on economic growth. Geopolitics: The ongoing risk of escalation in the Ukraine conflict continues to loom over global markets. Soft Landing: The Baseline Scenario Looking at the current data, the S&P 500 appears to be on the path to a soft landing, supported by a strong labor market and robust technology sector performance. Favorable seasonality—both year-end trends and election-year dynamics—further bolsters the case for continued gains, which remains the baseline scenario for now. Conclusion The S&P 500 has shown strength, but next week’s FOMC meeting and PCE inflation report could reshape market dynamics. The key question is whether the data will support the soft landing narrative or signal a need for further monetary tightening. What are your thoughts on the S&P 500’s outlook given the upcoming Fed meeting and inflation data? Will the index sustain its rally, or are we in for increased volatility? Share your insights in the comments.
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by InvestMate
1
Gold Spot intraday setup. The Pushmi - Pullyu animalRemember Dr. Dolittle? He was a vet who could talk to animals. One of the rarest was the “pushmi-pullyu,” a llama with two heads (one head was where the ass ought to be). The pushmi-pullyu was a gentle creature that did not like to be stared at. And yet the other animals in Africa convinced him to go with the good Dr., and be put on display in Europe, because Dr. Dolittle was a kind soul who needed money to look after all the animals in his “care”. It's gone a bit since Gold explosion last week, due to Biden's gaffe to authorize the yellow/blues regime use US-made missiles inside Russia's legal area, while the rods of Russia's retribution hanged like the sword of Damocles over all of Europe, on the basis of reciprocity. Last week Gold spot added +153 US Dollars just in 5 Days. That was the best in history ever 1-week return, since January, 1980. Additionally, in percentage points Gold spot added +5.97 percent in a week. It was the 3rd best 1-week return over past decade. Gold spot in Euro OANDA:XAUEUR at the same time continues its gain 11th straight month in a row. The main intraday graph is for Gold spot OANDA:XAUUSD , and it indicates that Gold has retraced a bit to its key $2670 level (that was discussed in earlier published ideas), and ready to take Adv. again, since Trump-a-rally rolled out into the all-the-world fart.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Pandorra
#202447 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500 e-mini futures: Bullish. 5 consecutive days where bears tried and bulls closed at the highs. Buy signals do not get better than this. Above 6000 we see 6050 and most likely an acceleration up to new highs. 6100 and 6150 the obvious next targets. Bears need a daily close below 5850 and would still have a bigger bull trend line to break there so the downside is likely limited. Quote from last week: comment: 50% retracement hit and market closed above it on Friday. My preferred path for next week is a huge bull reversal higher. Is this likely after 2 strong bear days? No it’s not, so I have to wait for either side to show a clear new direction or continuation. If this goes to 5800 without me, so be it. I think after such a big rally with follow through buying above 6000, a retracement to 50% is a buy and not a sell. comment : Bullish bias I had, bullish it was. Market looks like it wants up bad. Every dip is bought heavily on increasing volume. Time is now to get above 6100 or we won’t get it at all. Market is beyond overvalued, overbought and the poor late bulls are just arriving. Guess who will be left holding the bags again. current market cycle: Bull trend key levels : 5850 - 6150 (maybe even 6200) bull case: Last hurrah. 6100 is my first target but can absolutely go beyond 6200. Anything below 5800 would be the end of this. I don’t feel the need to explain this further. The chart is crystal clear. I have written about this blow-off top for many weeks. Just don’t forget to take profits before this turns badly. I do think the odds of this closing 2024 below 6000 are low but can absolutely happen. These bullish profits since August are outrageous and once the run for the exits begins, it will be ruthless. Invalidation is below 5800. bear case: Bears gave up on Friday. If they can’t get below 5900 on Monday, we will see a meltup. No bear will come around big time before 6050 and even then I think they will let the bulls show signs of exhaustion before they be aggressive. Invalidation is above 5800. outlook last week: short term: I want to join the bulls again. Need strong confirmation first though. Still no interest in selling as of now. → Last Sunday we traded 5896 and now we are at 5987. Perfect outlook. Hope you made some. short term: Bullish all the way. If market closes below 5900 I would turn neutral and daily close below 5800 would probably be the end of my bullish thesis and I turn bear. medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-24: 6100+ are my last targets for the bulls before this bubble begins to pop or at least deflate. current swing trade: None chart update: Added potential bullish 5-wave series.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by priceactiontds
SPX: back on a trackTwo weeks ago markets passed through sort of a short term stress, related mostly to new names in the US administration, but it did not take too much time until the initial fear passed away. Markets were back on a track during the previous week. The S&P 500 made a move from 5.865 up to 5.969, where the index is ending the week. Interestingly, tech companies were not the one to shine this week, however, the market switched attention toward the industrial and consumer sectors. In this sense, market favorite Nvidia lost 3,2%, while Alphabet dropped by 1,7%. Analysts are commenting that such a trend might continue till the year-end, as investors are turning their attention toward the more cyclical sectors. On the other hand, analysts from Swiss UBS bank commented that they continued to stay bullish on tech companies, especially those related to AI. Analysts specifically mentioned NVDA. Still, they are pointing toward the potential risk in the year 2025, which are related to “the product transition and tariff-related uncertainties”.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX