OIL: Three days breakout traders long in the market Hello traders and hope you are doing good! Today I would like to analyse deeply this market, trying to understand the logic behind my thesis. Do not forget to support and comment my idea, nothing change to you, but is really supportive to me.
Overall, OIL looks like potentially going to complete a two weeks dump and pump template, and especially today with CPI and OIL major red news on calendar, it can be pretty interesting, but let's go deeper.
The last week, since Wednesday the market drastically dumped down, breaking on Friday the low of week and closing the day/week in breakout, with short traders in the market. Now, typically, depending on the behaviour of price, the market can keep going breaking lower or reversing if volume is trapped down low, as it happened in this specific scenario.
I would say then, that the low of week can be locked and it may start the reversal process, going to stop short traders from Wednesday.
Monday, in the new week, the market placed a higher high (because it broke the Friday high of day), closing the day as first green day, which is a strong signal of market reversal.
Tuesday, volume was trapped almost all the day below Monday closing price, and a dump and pump session setup pushed the price even higher!
Wednesday, today, market kept breaking higher, potentially higher time frames long traders are driving this move.
Let's discuss about the thesis, as you may already know, I do not predict the market, but I just show what it can be (as per my criteria) the highest probability setup, setting for the day.
The long thesis, which is my current and main view, targeting the previous HOW, could be really interesting if the price will dump down into the low placed in London session, consolidating till 10:30am OIL news release for a buy low long trade setup, which I will be really willing to take.
However, the market can consolidate up high into the current HOD/HOW, for a short scalp back into any higher level long, for example low of London or yesterday closing price, but I will be updating this analysis every hour from the beginning of NY session 8am NYT.
Remember, I do not predict any movement but I only trade setup!
See you later every one and let me know if you need any clarification!
SPOTCRUDE
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With OPEC+ meeting on Sunday, where to next for crude?Despite the crosscurrents of tariffs, ceasefire agreements and an impending OPEC+ meeting, a certain calm descends over the crude markets and stability is the order of play. The Brent futures price looks quietly content in a $75 to $71 range, and I see these levels as defining the near-term directional risk - where a breakout of either level would offer some degree of confidence of price kicking on further from that point. For now, the crude market has found a fair value, and the aggregation of all flows and positioning seems happy with pricing with the collective waiting for new news to present itself which could lead to a new trend or higher volatility.
We’ve seen limited interest in moving either WTI or Brent futures positioning around the post-ceasefire agreement and tariff news, and both factors are now largely in the price. Subsequently, energy traders will be looking more intently towards the weekend OPEC+ meeting and starting to review scenarios and probabilities.
Of course, many of the big US-based oil traders will be taking an extended break for Thanksgiving. However, orders may need to be left with others on the desk as any pre-positioning ahead of the OPEC+ meeting will still need to be put in place before Friday's futures markets close, as the prospect of gapping risk in crude on the Monday open is still a risk that needs to be managed. That said, the calmness seen in the price action and lack of trending conditions suggests oil traders see the OPEC+ meeting as a lower volatility affair, with the group likely to swing to an almost unanimous call to hold off from unwinding its 2.2 mbd voluntary cuts until Q125 – with crude at $73 and the Trump/Bessent combo exploring another 3 mbpd of US output, this may be the prudent thing to do for now.
OIL: Day 3 breakout traders long in the marketHi everyone and welcome to my channel, please don’t forget to support all my work subscribing and liking my post, and for any question leave me a comment, I will be more than happy to help you!
“Trade setups, not movements”
1. DAY OF THE WEEK (Failed Breakout, False Break, Range Expansion)
Monday DAY 1 Opening Range
Tuesday DAY 2 Initial Balance
Wednesday DAY 3 (reset DAY 1) Mid Point Week
Thursday DAY 2
Friday DAY 3 Closing Range ✅
2. SIGNAL DAY
First Red Day
First Green Day
3 Days Long Breakout ✅
3 Days Short Breakout
Inside Day
3. WEEKLY TEMPLATE
Pump&Dump ✅
Dump&Pump
Frontside ✅
Backside
4. THESIS:
Long: secondary, I won't exclude the possibility for this market to setup for a long trade, the market performed a higher high on the HOW and started dropping, currently consolidating.
Short: primary, Day 3 long breakout traders, HOW, is most of the time a reversal signal, but considering the overall level and behaviour of price, before NY session start I can see more a pump and dump. Price still on the frontside, so I won't be looking for a dump all the way down back to the LOW, unless news release at 10:30am NYT will be catalyst.
Please note that the purpose of my analysis is to help me and you hunting the best trade setup for the day, none of my technical aspects are a way to forecast any directional market movement.
Gianni
Spot Crude Oil 30-Minute Chart AnalysisStrategy Overview:
The chart shows Spot Crude Oil on a 30-minute timeframe, where price action is consolidating around the 70.00 USD level. The market is currently trading in a tight range, suggesting the possibility of an upcoming breakout.
Key Levels:
Support Levels:
The price is finding support at 69.871, which acts as a critical level for potential upward movements.
A break below this support could signal further downside momentum, possibly testing lower levels around 69.399.
Resistance Levels:
The nearest resistance sits at 70.431, where the price may face selling pressure if tested.
Further resistance is identified in the 72.00-72.50 zone, marked as a strong supply area. A successful breakout above this resistance could indicate a stronger bullish move in the medium term.
Trading Strategy:
Buying Strategy: A buy entry can be considered near the support level of 69.871, with a stop loss just below this level. The first target would be the 70.431 resistance zone, and the second target can be the 72.00-72.50 range.
Selling Strategy: If the price fails to break above 70.431, a short position can be initiated targeting a pullback towards 69.871. A break below this level would confirm the bearish momentum.
RSI Confirmation:
The RSI indicator is showing neutral momentum, hovering around the middle range. A breakout above 70.431 may be confirmed if the RSI moves into overbought territory, while a drop below 69.871 could push the RSI toward oversold conditions.
Conclusion:
With price consolidating between 69.871 and 70.431, this chart suggests both buying and selling opportunities based on how the market reacts to these key levels. The upcoming sessions could see either a breakout above resistance for bullish continuation or a failure that could result in a bearish correction.
OIL: inside day, first red day, 3 days pump and dumpHi everyone and welcome to my channel, please don’t forget to support all my work subscribing and liking my post, and for any question leave me a comment, I will be more than happy to help you!
“Trade setups, not movements”
1. DAY OF THE WEEK (Failed Breakout, False Break, Range Expansion)
Monday DAY 1 Opening Range
Tuesday DAY 2 Initial Balance
Wednesday DAY 3 (reset DAY 1) Mid Point Week ✅
Thursday DAY 2
Friday DAY 3 Closing Range
2. SIGNAL DAY
First Red Day ✅
First Green Day
3 Days Long Breakout
3 Days Short Breakout
Inside Day ✅
3. WEEKLY TEMPLATE
Pump&Dump ✅
Dump&Pump
Frontside
Backside ✅
4. THESIS:
Long: secondary, the inside day can give either a reversal or trend continuation setup, depending on how it sets up. It's just broken out, eventually it will consolidate till 10:30am MRN, I would be willing to take a reversal LOD back to the HOD of the inside day.
Short: primary, potential weekly pump and dump, price currently on the backside move. Not really the 3 session setup I like to trade, but space enough to take a good RR short trade.
Please note that the purpose of my analysis is to help me and you hunting the best trade setup for the day, none of my technical aspects are a way to forecast any directional market movement.
Gianni
OIL: First red day, as well pullback on previous weekly highHi everyone and welcome to my channel, please don’t forget to support all my work subscribing and liking my post, and for any question leave me a comment, I will be more than happy to help you!
“Trade setups, not movements”
1. DAY OF THE WEEK (Failed Breakout, False Break, Range Expansion)
Monday DAY 1 Opening Range
Tuesday DAY 2 Initial Balance
Wednesday DAY 3 (reset DAY 1) Mid Point Week ✅ day 2 cycle
Thursday DAY 2
Friday DAY 3 Closing Range
2. SIGNAL DAY
First Red Day ✅
First Green Day
3 Days Long Breakout
3 Days Short Breakout
Inside Day
3. WEEKLY TEMPLATE
Pump&Dump ✅
Dump&Pump
Frontside
Backside
4. THESIS:
Long: secondary, but still a potential possibility for oil to keep going higher, why? Because the market broke out the previous high of week, and now is pulling back on it, consolidating for a potential trend continuation. The 3 sessions setup could be getting ready for it, but I will prioritise the short view.
Short: primary, first red day, Monday pumping day, typical for a 3 days pump and dump. However the 3 session setup is not ready for this move, news on calendar, is a move that can be completed with nfp on Friday.
Please note that the purpose of my analysis is to help me and you hunting the best trade setup for the day, none of my technical aspects are a way to forecast any directional market movement.
Gianni
A technical view on the Crude market - what happens next?Taking a short-term view, the oil market feels delicately poised and what happens over the next 24-48 hours could be very telling for the near-term passage of play.
After a near 14% rally from the 4 June lows, which took price through the May range highs of $80.91, and after a huge bullish position adjustment in both Brent and WTI futures, we’ve seen price pull back to test this former breakout point – if crude now kicks higher, confirming the bulls are happy to support, it would suggest the bulls have a platform to take this back above $82.16 (21 June high) for a possible trend higher, where pullbacks should be shallow and a move into $84.87, even $86.00/20 would be our targeted play.
Conversely, a failure to hold $80.91 would suggest a change in the market structure and alter the skew in the distribution to one where we see higher probabilities of a move back towards $78.50, even $76.00
OIL: Day 3 long breakout traders in the market, HOW reversalHi everyone and welcome to my channel, please don’t forget to support all my work subscribing and liking my post, and for any question leave me a comment, I will be more than happy to help you!
“Trade setups, not movements”
1. DAY OF THE WEEK (Failed Breakout, False Break, Range Expansion)
Monday DAY 1 Opening Range
Tuesday DAY 2 Initial Balance
Wednesday DAY 3 (reset DAY 1) Mid Point Week
Thursday DAY 2 ✅ day 2 cycle
Friday DAY 3 Closing Range
2. SIGNAL DAY
First Red Day
First Green Day
3 Days Long Breakout ✅
3 Days Short Breakout
Inside Day
3. WEEKLY TEMPLATE
Pump&Dump ✅
Dump&Pump
Frontside
Backside ✅
4. THESIS:
Long: secondary, no FRD signal, however the behaviour is pretty similar. In this kind of scenario, considering the market already dumping, if it start consolidating for a false break reversal in a daily overview, I would be happy to have a scalp long.
Short: primary, weekly failed breakout, 3 days long in the market, price now on the backside move also in bigger timeframes, I will be looking for a sell high targeting the LOW.
Please note that the purpose of my analysis is to help me and you hunting the best trade setup for the day, none of my technical aspects are a way to forecast any directional market movement.
Gianni
OIL: Day 3 breakout traders long in the market, DAY 3Hi everyone and welcome to my channel, please don’t forget to support all my work subscribing and liking my post, and for any question leave me a comment, I will be more than happy to help you!
“Trade setups, not movements”
1. DAY OF THE WEEK (Failed Breakout, False Break, Range Expansion)
Monday DAY 1 Opening Range
Tuesday DAY 2 Initial Balance
Wednesday DAY 3 (reset DAY 1) Mid Point Week ✅ no daily cycle
Thursday DAY 2
Friday DAY 3 Closing Range
2. SIGNAL DAY
First Red Day
First Green Day
3 Days Long Breakout ✅
3 Days Short Breakout
Inside Day
3. WEEKLY TEMPLATE
Pump&Dump ✅
Dump&Pump
Frontside ✅
Backside
4. THESIS:
Long: secondary, considering the market still on the frontside move, no other strong reversal signal, I wouldn't exclude a potential trend continuation if market dump into the yesterday HOD, consolidating till 10:30am OIL news.
Short: primary, although I don't expect a massime move till FOMC, the market pumped for 3 days, breakout as well the previous HOW. Currently the 3 session setup can setup for a scalp short, however, I will update the daily overview after the news release.
Please note that the purpose of my analysis is to help me and you hunting the best trade setup for the day, none of my technical aspects are a way to forecast any directional market movement.
Gianni
OIL: Day 3 breakout traders long in the market, frontside Hi everyone and welcome to my channel, please don’t forget to support all my work subscribing and liking my post, and for any question leave me a comment, I will be more than happy to help you!
“Trade setups, not movements”
1. DAY OF THE WEEK (Failed Breakout, False Break, Range Expansion)
Monday DAY 1 Opening Range ✅ no daily cycle
Tuesday DAY 2 Initial Balance
Wednesday DAY 3 (reset DAY 1) Mid Point Week
Thursday DAY 2
Friday DAY 3 Closing Range
2. SIGNAL DAY
First Red Day
First Green Day
3 Days Long Breakout ✅
3 Days Short Breakout
Inside Day
3. WEEKLY TEMPLATE
Pump&Dump
Dump&Pump ✅
Frontside ✅
Backside
4. THESIS:
Long: primary, breakout traders short still in profit from monday NY session, the breakout as well left a gap which usually is the most common place to be filled. Potential weekly dump and pump template can be completed (not necessary by today). The market closed in balance on Friday, and no other time frames are triggered yet. I will be waiting for a daily level to be triggered, and if a buy low setup will present, I will take it without any hesitation!
Short: secondary, Wed to Fri I can see a potential "escalator up", which during the week it can lead to a short move going back into the low of week. However, the market opened inside the previous week, so let it to setup!
Please note that the purpose of my analysis is to help me and you hunting the best trade setup for the day, none of my technical aspects are a way to forecast any directional market movement.
Gianni
OIL: First green day, three days cycleHi everyone and welcome to my channel, please don’t forget to support all my work subscribing and liking my post, and for any question leave me a comment, I will be more than happy to help you!
“Trade setups, not movements”
1. DAY OF THE WEEK (Failed Breakout, False Break, Range Expansion)
Monday DAY 1 Opening Range
Tuesday DAY 2 Initial Balance
Wednesday DAY 3 (reset DAY 1) Mid Point Week
Thursday DAY 2 ✅ day 3 cycle
Friday DAY 3 Closing Range
2. SIGNAL DAY
First Red Day
First Green Day ✅
3 Days Long Breakout
3 Days Short Breakout
Inside Day
3. WEEKLY TEMPLATE
Pump&Dump
Dump&Pump ✅
Frontside
Backside ✅
4. THESIS:
Long: primary, by tomorrow with the NFP, we can definitely see this great weekly dump and pump scenario completed, second hour NY session I will be looking for a buy low setup, back at least to NY session Monday morning.
Short: I do not exclude price going back lower, retesting the LOW, however I wouldn't be interested today in this scenario.
Please note that the purpose of my analysis is to help me and you hunting the best trade setup for the day, none of my technical aspects are a way to forecast any directional market movement.
Gianni
OIL: Day 3 shorts traders in the market, still backsideHi everyone and welcome to my channel, please don’t forget to support all my work subscribing and liking my post, and for any question leave me a comment, I will be more than happy to help you!
“Trade setups, not movements”
1. DAY OF THE WEEK (Failed Breakout, False Break, Range Expansion)
Monday DAY 1 Opening Range
Tuesday DAY 2 Initial Balance ✅ No cycle
Wednesday DAY 3 (reset DAY 1) Mid Point Week
Thursday DAY 2
Friday DAY 3 Closing Range
2. SIGNAL DAY
First Red Day
First Green Day
3 Days Long Breakout
3 Days Short Breakout ✅
Inside Day
3. WEEKLY TEMPLATE
Pump&Dump ✅
Dump&Pump
Frontside
Backside ✅
4. THESIS:
Long: primary, today is Tuesday, day 2 of the week, low of the week as well, opening range in place and market kept breaking down. However, I would be interested in taking a reversal trade as a scalp, back into the breakout of yesterday low, scalp LOD(LOW) to Yesterday LOD)
Short: N/A I would not have any level to enter a potential down move, unless, and I repeat, unless before 10am the market will reach the previous LOD
Please note that the purpose of my analysis is to help me and you hunting the best trade setup for the day, none of my technical aspects are a way to forecast any directional market movement.
Gianni
OIL: Day 3 breakout shorts in the marketHi everyone and welcome to my channel, please don’t forget to support all my work subscribing and liking my post, and for any question leave me a comment, I will be more than happy to help you!
“Trade setups, not movements”
1. DAY OF THE WEEK (Failed Breakout, False Break, Range Expansion)
Monday DAY 1 Opening Range ✅ No cycle started yet
Tuesday DAY 2 Initial Balance
Wednesday DAY 3 (reset DAY 1) Mid Point Week
Thursday DAY 2
Friday DAY 3 Closing Range
2. SIGNAL DAY
First Red Day
First Green Day
3 Days Long Breakout
3 Days Short Breakout ✅
Inside Day
3. WEEKLY TEMPLATE
Pump&Dump ✅
Dump&Pump
Frontside
Backside ✅
4. THESIS:
Long: secondary, many times, day 3 shorts in the market are a strong reversal signal, especially during Wednesday or Friday (which closes the week). From Friday NY session the market dumped down and currently it looks consolidating on the low, with a chance to push higher stopping the previous and most recent level short (I would define it a long scalp)
Short: primary, market still on the backside, a lower low into the LOW can be a great clue of daily pump and dump back into the LOW or previous LOW.
Please note that the purpose of my analysis is to help me and you hunting the best trade setup for the day, none of my technical aspects are a way to forecast any directional market movement.
Gianni
OIL: First green dayHi everyone and welcome to my channel, please don’t forget to support all my work subscribing and liking my post, and for any question leave me a comment, I will be more than happy to help you!
“Trade setups, not movements”
1. DAY OF THE WEEK (Failed Breakout, False Break, Range Expansion)
Monday DAY 1 Opening Range ✅ day 2 cycle
Tuesday DAY 2 Initial Balance
Wednesday DAY 3 (reset DAY 1) Mid Point Week
Thursday DAY 2
Friday DAY 3 Closing Range
2. SIGNAL DAY
First Red Day
First Green Day ✅
3 Days Long Breakout
3 Days Short Breakout
Inside Day
3. WEEKLY TEMPLATE
Pump&Dump
Dump&Pump ✅
Frontside ✅
Backside
4. THESIS:
Long: This market could coiling for an explosive move back to the previous HOW, where short traders are still in profit
Short: I do not exclude the secondary scenario of pump and dump starting from Friday, eventually evolving during the further days
Please note that the purpose of my analysis is to help me and you hunting the best trade setup for the day, none of my technical aspects are a way to forecast any directional market movement.
Gianni
OIL: Monday closed as First Red Day Hi everyone and welcome to my channel, please don’t forget to support all my work subscribing and liking my post, and for any question leave me a comment, I will be more than happy to help you!
“Trade setups, not movements”
Let’s jump into the Technical Analysis:
WEEKLY TEMPLATE (1hr chart):
Yesterday, Monday, the market broke through the previous HOW and failed, closing the day as a first red day. Since the last Wednesday the market pumped up and now look like starting the backside move of a big template of pump and dump
DAILY TEMPLATE (15min chart):
Asia and London session mostly dumped all the day, breaking the current low of the week
THESIS :
In the short scenario this market can go fo a range expansion, targeting the previous LOW, it would be my main trading opportunity.
In the long scenario, considering money on top at the HOW, I would be targeting the yesterday CP(HOD) or current HOW if strong momentum is presented.
SETUP :
Short: pump at least into previous LOD(LOW)
Long: Low in place, consolidation for 30/45 min and second/third hour NY session reversal
Please note that the purpose of my analysis is to help me and you hunting the best trade setup for the day, none of my technical aspects are a way to forecast any directional market movement.
Gianni
Crude trader - trying to price certainty in conflict The high on our Brent crude price has been $89.68 – hit at midday – but while our clients are long of crude (65% of open interest is held long), we’re seeing better sellers in the broader market, as we roll towards EU trade. The early rally felt reasonably orderly, but a lot of questions were being asked and without many immediate answers to obtain the certainty we crave as market participants - so naturally in this backdrop we get outsized moves, as a lack of clarity causes dispersions in price. When it comes to knowledge most market participants are now military experts and have quite poor knowledge of Middle East relations – again this makes it harder to price risk.
Our US crude price sits up 3.8%, off the earlier highs of $87.45 and holds the 50-day MA – should EU/UK traders come in and buy the slight intraday dips then $89.03 is the level to watch topside for supply. It could go either way, but on balance I favour selling into intraday rallies.
Today been some reversal after the recent drawdown in crude into $82 – positioning played a big part in that run, but we had seen signs that the Saudis may look at increasing production at year-end. We had even seen positive steps at a geopolitical level; brokered by the US, an agreement that Saudi would recognize Israel and as MBS said, forge “the biggest historical deal since the end of the Cold War”. Instead of this positive backdrop, we have seen a 180-degree turn with Hamas's attack on Israel, with the market now questioning if we could see engagement with Hezbollah and Lebanon. With President Biden standing firm with Israel, the view is Iran’s oil exports which have been growing will be cut.
If we look at Crude ‘time spreads’ – that is, front-month crude futures – June 2024 futures - we see this +$0.97, so modestly higher – if we really felt like Saudi production was going to get impacted by the unfolding situation then this would higher still.
If in doubt, switch gears and head to Nat Gas which is building on the recent breakout and looks like it may start to bull trend.
SpotCrude – higher levels starting to impact risk Further highs in crude have been seen in this momentum move. This time courtesy of some punchy OPEC forecasts for a 3.3m barrel p/d deficit in Q4. The IEA (International Energy Agency) are due to provide their update in the session ahead, and one can also expect a change in the forecast, given they previously pencilled in a 230k bpd deficit. $90 is the obvious round-number target for longs, ahead of the Oct 2022 highs of $93.52.
Clients are biased to fade the move here though (61% of open positions are now held short), but while crude is certainly overbought one considers the trigger for a pronounced mean reverting move. Higher levels from here are likely going to increase market anxiety, where we see inflation expectations rising once again.
Crude trader - closer to a mean reversion rally Having reached the double top target, we see that Crude is now 15% below from its 50 day MA - in the past 2 years we've been as stretched as 17% below this average before we saw solid mean reversion kick in - we are in oversold territory and that offers an elevated risk of short covering
By way of flow, we now see 67% of open positions in crude are now held long by clients, so they see upside - the selling pressure seems to be supported and the buyers are having more of a say.
Is price putting in a ST low? It seems to be the case - while we're yet to see momentum truly shift, it feels like the prospect of a squeeze higher has risen
$70 crude coming? A major (bearish) development in oilThe technicals in crude continue to break down as the buyers stand aside – the 26 Sept swing low looks close to being taken out at $76.61 and a break here sees $65 come into play – it does feel like these lows will be tested, so a short bias is preferred. The fact we see crude down 4% when copper is up 1% speaks to the EU price caps as the driver, over just a China Covid and an economic/demand story.
I think it's important to look at the crude futures curve – On TradingView I have shown the difference between the continuous front month contract and August 2023 contracts (code CL1! -NYMEX: CLQ2023) – this is now eyeing inversion, having been as high as $11. 90 in October. This is a big development in the crude complex as it removes a key reason for funds/producers to hold longs for the roll down into the next contract on expiry.
What else has caused the moves on the day?
• Poor liquidity – everyone watching Ger vs JAP - obviously many market ballers are off now for US Thanksgiving
• EU price caps on Russian exports came in a $65 to $70, perhaps higher than consensus – not that Russia will comply and work with countries that apply such caps – but I guess the view is given the caps are higher, and Russia is selling crude at discounts of c.$20 p/b, that these caps won't affect Russia supply
• The DoE Weekly Inventory data showed a 3.7m drawer in crude inventories, however, the market caught onto a 3.06m build in gasoline inventories (most since July), while distillates rose by 1.72m. I always find with the inventory report the market will see what it wants to see, but on today’s report it’s the gasoline numbers that have won out
• China Covid restrictions – obviously still highly fluid but it is influential on the demand side of crude’s driver – traders seeing new mobility controls in the city of Zhengzhou and PCR testing – we watch Beijing and Shanghai as always given the record case count sweeping the country.
We gear up to the next OPEC meeting on 4 Dec, which could even more focus if price breaks $70 – we have our eyes on US payrolls then but the OPEC meeting could drive some solid cross-asset vol.
Spot Crude Long 7-14-2022As I had mentioned earlier, this market is trading within a descending triangle and I was waiting for the daily close to decide if I was going to enter or not. Well, today's candle close was a long-tailed doji rejecting support. I am now long and looking for a potential move up to triangle resistance (about 120.000). Other important levels are 105.000 and 115.000.
Spot Crude Analysis 7-14-2022In spite of the majority of the markets getting smashed, Crude seems to be holding up pretty well. Here on the daily time frame we see a descending triangle and price is testing support for the third time. I'll be watching the candle close today to confirm a potential entry long. Potential targets to the upside would be 105, 115 and 120 (which corresponds to triangle resistance).