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Time to test next theoryNOTE: All times are eastern time zone IF we are in the early stages of Intermediate wave 3, it is currently projected to last 154 to 174 hours with strongest model agreement at 168 hours. Historically, Minor wave 1s inside of Intermediate wave 3s move between 17.7%-34.14% of the larger wave’s movement. For example, if Intermediate wave 3 moves 168 hours, Minor wave 1 should last at least 17.7% of that duration which is 29.74 hours which rounds to 30 hours. 30 hours from the beginning of Intermediate wave 3 on August 24 places the estimated bottom for Minor wave 1 on or after 1130 on August 30. The higher end of the range would place the bottom before 34.14% of 168 hours (57.36 hours, rounded to 57) which is 1030 on September 6. Similar historical data is applied to attempt in finding the bottom of Minor wave 1. Intermediate wave 3 is projected to end between 4120-4200. Minor wave 1 tends to account for 34.1%-56.62% of the larger wave’s movement. If the bottom is closer to 4160, Intermediate wave 3 would drop a total of 298.30 points and Minor wave 1 would likely end between 4289.39-4356.59. THINGS TO WATCH NEXT: Main hypothesis: These estimates have created a possible target box to determine the end of Minor wave 1. If this box is accurate, the bottom early today could be the end of Minute wave 1 and the upward movement afterward could be Minute wave 2. This would obliviously indicate next week goes lower than today’s low. If Minute wave 1 ended today, historical data should put the end of Minute wave 2 in the following area. Most specific models have quartile retracements at 31.22%, 45.73% and 78.52%. with strongest duration at 3 hours and secondary duration at 4 hours. Next dataset places quartile movement retracements at 26.14%, 40.25%, and 60.26%. Duration forecasts point to 4 hours, with secondary agreement at 1 or 8 hours, and third at 2 hours. The broader dataset points to quartiles of 28.18%, 44.4%, and 69.26%. Duration is strongest at 8 hours with secondary at 2 hours, third at 4 hours, fourth at 1 hour, and fifth at 3 hours. Current stats for this possible Minute wave 2 have it at 4 hours long as of 1510 on August 25th. The high so far is above the 60.26% retracement level. If this is Minute wave 2, it is likely near the end. Hypothesis 2: It is also possible Minor wave 1 ended with the low today. Next week would still have red, but the end of Intermediate wave 3 is likely much sooner than the end of September. Hypothesis 3: It is also possible the historical data is wrong and the end points for Minor wave 1 are someone completely different. Additional possibilities place the market outside of Intermediate wave 3 altogether. Hypothesis 4: The market could still be working through Intermediate wave 2 which would mean a new high above 4458.30 occurs next week. Hypothesis 5: The market could also be in a completely different place than Intermediate waves 2 or 3 causing unknown future gyration. Watching the next 2-3 trading days should rule out some theories.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
12
August 29 forecast: down early, end upBLUF: Down early tomorrow, finish up for the day, next possible near-term market top on Thurday. NOTE: All times eastern. The leading theory that does not bust everything has the index possibly back in Intermediate wave 2 and near the end of it. The far-right side has the levels of interest previously identified for Intermediate wave 2’s possible movement. All median levels have been surpassed and the maximum level on the most specific dataset is the next target at 4521.44. Remaining duration targets for Intermediate wave 2 are 56 and 62 hours. Hour 56 is the first hour of trading on August 29 while hour 62 is the final hour of trading on that day. If the analysis below is correct, the top would likely occur closer to hour 62. The first projection to work on is the end to Minor wave C based on the location of Minor waves A and B in yellow letters. The levels to monitor are on the far-left side of the chart. The most specific historical durations yet to occur are at 24 and 40 hours. Hour 24 which is plausible and would occur on or before 1430 tomorrow afternoon. Hour 40 would be the final hour of trading on Friday September 1. The movement extensions point to a minimum of 87.26%, median of 111.365% and maximum of 224.28%. The next set of slightly broader wave data points to durations of 24 and 26 hours after the strongest agreement at 34 hours. The strongest model agreement resides with 34 hours, however, this was the length of wave A and not likely the duration here. Frequently, in shorter duration micro waves, the relationship between waves A and C can be 1:1. Minor wave A in this case was much longer than those observed in micro waves and not necessarily the sought after endpoint here. Hour 26 would be the first hour of trading on Thursday. The quartile movement extensions are 110.40% (first quartile), 126.14% (median), 126.49% (third quartile). All of these have been surpassed at this time. The next historical target is 132.33% and max historical for this dataset is 212.58%. The broadest dataset points to 24 or 34 hours for duration, with 34 hours possibly being ruled out as mentioned above. The quartile extensions are 110.54%, 126.49%, and 172.42%. The next wave to attempt to place is Minute wave 3 (small green numerals) based on the probable completions of waves 1 & 2. Wave 3 could be complete, but it is better to see where it should complete instead of calling the most recent bar an endpoint. Strongest model agreement for duration is at 6, 11, or 12 trading hours. Currently Minute wave 3 is believed to be at 9 hours. Hour 11 is the second hour of trading on August 30. Wave 3s inside of wave Cs tend to be large and the historical quartiles for the most specific wave data has a minimum move of 128.71%, first quartile of 148.98%, median at 293.64%, and third quartile at 310.56%. It is unlikely the median would be hit in this case, but the first quartile has already been exceeded. The next set of slightly broader data points to a duration of 6 hours, with secondary agreement at 10-15 hours. The movement extension quartiles are 127.17%, 198.80%, and 273.68%. The final dataset has strongest model agreement for duration at 6 hours, then 12 hours, 24 hours, and then 8 and 10 hours. The quartile levels are similar to the ones from the last dataset. Based on this data, either wave 3 has topped and the market will move down for a few hours into Minute wave 4, or the market will move up to start and then down into wave 4. Once waves 3 and 4 complete tomorrow. If the market moves up toward 4510 and then down to 4485, Minute wave 5 could last around 4-6 hours based on historical data. Additionally, there is a possible prior support/resistance line around 4527/4528 that could be an interesting test. Minute wave 5 inside of Minor wave C tends to account for 31-55% of Minor wave C’s movement. If wave C tops at the potential 4527 resistance, this would mean Minor C could move 53.34 to 94.85 points. 53.34 points added to a hypothetical bottom at 4485 would place the top around 4538. This would mean a Minute wave 4 bottom around 4475 would be more likely to allow Minute wave 5, Minor wave C, and Intermediate wave 2 to top at 4527. Depending how long it takes Minute wave 4 to find a bottom, the end of Minute wave 5 would more likely occur on Thursday. The RSI is high and tomorrow's wave 4 will help it come down a bit before the next near-term market top.
SP:SPX
by StockSignaler
5
Turning Cautiously BullishS&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for TUE. 08/29 As we wrote in our trading plans published yesterday, Mon. 08/28: "If we get a daily close above 4415 today then our models will flip to a moderately bullish bias. If not, they will continue to sport their bearish bias". We got this confirmation with yesterday's close, and our models are turning cautiously bullish for today. There are mixed signals about the viability of this push up, hence the cautiousness. With the economic released coming in rest of the week, with the culmination into the NFP Friday, there is a risk of volatile spikes in either direction. If you are entering into a positional trade, make sure you have enough bandwidth to sustain wide swings. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4486, 4476, 4463, or 4454 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4483, 4473, 4460, 4450, or 4437 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit short exits on a break above 4443. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:46am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings, #usdebt, #bankdowngrades, #nvidia
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
1
"Livermore's Speculative Chart" Super Bubble Starting? Global M2 Livermore's Speculative Chart starting to look scary now doesn't it? "Central Banks 2008" Lets create 101.29T dollars weaved into the fabric of society that cannot be removed without collapsing everything. "Central Banks 2023" We've created too much money we need to raise rates to stop markets over heating and creating a super bubble. "FRED Removes 1 Trillion" Failed banks Date closed Heartland Tri-State Bank 07/28/2023 First Republic Bank 05/01/2023 Signature Bank, New York 03/12/2023 Silicon Valley Bank, Santa Clara, Calif. 03/10/2023 Lets also create BTFP + increase RRP. Not even 1 Trillion reduced without almost capsizing the entire financial system. This is why you don't artificially create 10s of trillions of dollars that should never have existed. "Jerome Powell Resigns 2024"
SP:SPXLong
by FederalXBT
2
4400 Breakout Confirmation Today?S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for MON. 08/28 As we wrote in our trading plans published Thu. 08/24: "It remains to be seen if this morning's surge above 4400 will be convincing enough for our models to abandon the bearish bias by tomorrow". On Friday, 08/25, we wrote: "Based on the early session action, we are not abandoning our bearish bias yet. We will reevaluate this on Monday". If we get a daily close above 4415 today then our models will flip to a moderately bullish bias. If not, they will continue to sport their bearish bias. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4433, 4426, 4407, 4402, or 4387 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4424, 4413, 4405, 4398, or 4384  with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4430. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:16am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings, #usdebt, #bankdowngrades, #nvidia
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
Time for a pullback before we consider the next moveIt does not seem to be enough to just get everyone bullish, we also needed the bears to give up. If this was the final short squeese we might just have ended the complacency stage. Some reasons why we could see a pullback now: 1. We exactly touched the fibonacci retrace level at 78.6% 2. We are at the top of a potential downward trend channel 3. Overbought 4. Red dot, indicating sell pressure 5. Global liquidity being drained
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by arcone
9
Bounce Above 4400 Sustainable? Day 3S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for FRI. 08/25 Notwithstanding Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech, our models continue to not give credence to the bounce above 4400 in SPX. We need confirmatory signs before we negate our bearish bias. In our trading plans published Thu. 08/17, we wrote: "The index is approaching the 4400 level this morning. If it breaks down, then 4385 will be the next support". The index closed below that level on Thursday, and took down multiple support levels since then, and our models' bias has turned outright bearish on Friday, and will remain bearish while the daily close is below 4400. As we wrote in our trading plans published yesterday, Thu. 08/23: "It remains to be seen if this morning's surge above 4400 will be convincing enough for our models to abandon the bearish bias by tomorrow". Based on the early session action, we are not abandoning our bearish bias yet. We will reevaluate this on Monday. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4433, 4421, 4407, 4384, 4372, or 4356 with a 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4430, 4417, 4405, 4381, 4367, or 4353 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:31am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings, #usdebt, #bankdowngrades, #nvidia
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
SPX to new highs SPX loves cups and handles. All the highlighted Cup & Handles on daily have played out beautifully so far, they all have been to the upside so far, but now we are making one to the downside with targets towards 4150. Then how do we reach new highs? If we zoom out to monthly TF things become clearer. As long as we stay above 0.5 or close above it on monthly, we have a chance to make new highs in a year or so. I have highlighted several upside targets based on where we bounce from on monthly.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by zakoraio
SPX did everything as per the plan, Where to now?I posted this chart just last week as part of my Major short setup going back weeks. Link to previous post in the description, please go through that setup to get the context. This is going to be a short post, since everything is going as per the plan we just have to wait and watch, Price back to where I expect either a break below or bounce to continue higher. So as per the plan If it's going to bounce now, I have highlighted two 30 mins demand zones. where I expect a bounce. Those two zones are also confluent with 0.786 and 0.886 fibs of the retracements. Apart from this chart it pretty is self-explanatory. Boost this post and leave me comment for any questions on this I'd be happy to explain.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by zakoraio
Here is the latest wave 3 path downwardIt is time again to map Intermediate wave 3 IF Intermediate wave 2 finally finished (again). Specific models point to a possible extension (pink lines) between 135.64% and 165.83% of Intermediate wave 1. Model durations could be 138, 147, 155, or 172 hours. While still specific, but slightly different wave relationship data is considered (light blue lines) next, this can be considered the more accurate dataset. Extension quartiles are 141.46%, 189.69%, and 306.68%. Strongest model agreement for duration is at 112 or 150 hours. Secondaries scatter at 70, 96, 147, 155, and 174 hours. The broader dataset points to quartile extensions of 141.46%, 180.03%, and 314.88%. Strongest model agreement on duration is 150 hours with secondary at 112 and 224. These secondaries are likely inaccurate as they are 1:1 wave 1 and 1:2 wave 1 to wave 3. Smaller waves tend to have these relationships, however, longer waves (112 hours for wave 1) do not. Third agreement is 168 hours. Fourth is scattered 134-138, and 172-174. This means the bottom could occur late in September around 4120. The 5 wave structure down is a complete guess at not based on any data. The actual 5 wave structure will likely be crazier.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
3
Bounce Above 4400 Sustainable? Day 2S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for THU. 08/24 In our trading plans published Thu. 08/17, we wrote: "The index is approaching the 4400 level this morning. If it breaks down, then 4385 will be the next support". The index closed below that level on Thursday, and took down multiple support levels since then, and our models' bias has turned outright bearish on Friday, and will remain bearish while the daily close is below 4400. As we wrote in our trading plans published yesterday, Thu. 08/23: "It remains to be seen if this morning's surge above 4400 will be convincing enough for our models to abandon the bearish bias by tomorrow". Based on the early session action, we are not abandoning our bearish bias yet. We will reevaluate this on Monday. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4477, 4463, 4452, 4433, 4421, or 4407 with a 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4460, 4448, 4430, 4417, or 4405 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4474. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 09:46am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings, #usdebt, #bankdowngrades, #nvidia
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
Corrections do not last long. This one might ass well be overJust by simply measuring the previous corrections in the stock market, it is clear that corrections in general do not take long. The average size corrections seems to be between 3 and 5 weeks. The botom of the current correction is found in week 4. As the price is also holding a critical support level, the probability of this being the bottom is incredibly high. With Bitcoin finding a bottomg as well (these two markets are correlated), I believe that this is the bottom of the current correction.
SP:SPXLong
by FetchTeam
Still early in Bear Market, a reviewNOTE: All times are eastern. New assumption is Intermediate wave 3 has not begun yet. Most of the forecasts have been accurate, at least through Minor wave 3. My wave 3 indicators have also flashed at appropriate wave 3 endpoints. Today clearly confirms the index is not where I had it so going backwards and re-testing is the next step. I am first returning to Minute wave 4 in Minor wave 3 in Intermediate wave 1. I had this top at 1230 on August 4. The three questions to answer are where was Minor 3 expected to end, where was Minute 5 expected to end and where do they overlap? The most specific data fails to specify a duration but suggests 12, 32, 52, and 56 hours. The minimum historical movement was 112.55% of wave 1, max is 408.88%, with a median at 247.84%. Slightly broader historical data points to a minimum of 121.16%, max at 285.18%, with median at 214.395%. The durations fail to strongly agree with lengths of 19, 32, and 48 hours. The broadest dataset referenced points to quartile extensions (1st, median, 3rd quartile instead of minimum, median, maximum) of 142.54%, 181.715%, and 242.61%. Model durations agree the most at a duration less than 10 hours with secondary and tertiary agreements at 32 and 48 hours respectively. My first questionable placement for the endpoint of Minor wave 3 based on the actual movement is between 1030 on August 8 or 1130 on August 9. The August 8th position was 43 hours into Minor wave 3 and the August 9 position would have been 51 hours. Now for application of Minute wave 5 inside of Minor wave 3 endpoints. The most specific data has a tight window with a minimum extension of 131.06% and maximum of 166.07%. The durations lack strong model agreement but note 9, 12, 16, 21, or 32 hours. The next set of slightly broader historical data has quartile extensions at 112.85%, 133.75%, and 166.07%. Models agree the most at 4 hour duration, second most at 5 hours, third at 9 hours, then 16, 19, and 12 hours. The broadest dataset used has quartile extensions at 117.88%, 134.35%, and 165.21%. Model agreement for durations beyond 8 hours agree the most at 16 hours. Additional model agreement in descending order is 11, 18, 19, 13, and 24 hours. Minute wave 5 likely lasted 12 or 20 hours. The 20 hour duration outlines 5 waves inside of wave 5, however wave 3 would be the shortest which is a potential red flag. I have placed the end of Minor wave 3 at 1030 on August 8. The levels and placement are viewable here: After computation of this point, Minor wave 4 would have then ended at the high during the first hour of trading on August 10. Next step is forecast where Minor wave 5 should end. Did it end before the open at the low on August 18, earlier, or not yet? An endpoint of August 18 would make Minor wave 5 42 hours long. The most specific set of forecasting data points to Minor wave 5 extending a minimum of 101% of Minor wave 3, a maximum of 165.28%, and a median of 108.58%. Duration agreements are difficult again, most is at 18 hours long, secondaries are spread at 33, 39, 52, and 64 hours. The next, slightly broader dataset has the minimum movement at 128.39%, maximum at 220.5%, and median at 147.93%. Forecasted durations are at 38, 45, 46, 48, 52 hours long. The final dataset from broader historical data has quartile extensions at 114.04%, 131.845, and 159.44%. Forecasted durations point to 43 hours long, with secondary at 52 hours. Next is 39 hours and then 32 hours.. A wave 3 indicator was triggered up to the bottom on August 18th which can be confusing. This indicator does fire at wave 3 endpoints, however, it also signals the end of waves 2, 4, and B. Sometimes it does indicate the end of wave 1 when quick movement occurs. August 18 triggers a wave 3 indicator on the daily and hourly charts which doesn’t provide great clarity, but does indicate a sudden drop on a daily level too. All highlighted levels in this analysis point to much shallower levels than the achieved low on August 18, however, a majority of the duration models suggest the actual length of 42 hours could be accurate. Here is application of these levels and placement of Intermediate 1 at the low on August 18: If August 18 was the de facto end of Intermediate wave 1, what would Intermediate wave 2 look like? The most specific historical data points to movement retracement quartiles of 28.26%, 41.09%, and 68.49%. Length forecasts agree the most at 27 hours while the secondaries are a broad tie at 26, 29, 31, and 42, hours. The next dataset has quartile levels of 32.13%, 51.87%, and 55.28%. Strongest model agreement for duration is 112 hours (which was the length of Intermediate 1, an unlikely). Secondaries are scattered at 26, 32, and 62 hours. The final broader dataset has quartile retracements 39.70%, 55.28%, and 71.83%. Model duration agrees the most at 112, with secondary at 37, 56, or 75 hours. Third agreement is heavy in the 22-37 hour range. Lastly, I have redrawn trendlines for the top and bottom of the overall downward trend. At the time of writing, the index has a current top from the 1330-1430 trading hour on August 23 which also coincides with the top trendline. Furthermore, the duration is 25 hours and the top matches the 39.70% quartile retracement mentioned above. A few more hours are required to see if all this analysis is correct and IF Intermediate wave 2 has just ended. My models are only as good as the information entered into the system. The cause for the misjudgment last night is likely related to in the moment wave assignment. Hindsight and broader review of data makes the future reads stronger. I have zero doubt the market is in the early innings of a second bear market correction. If Intermediate wave 1 indeed lasted 112 hours, the original endpoints from this forecast: point to the market bottom being later in 2024 and deeper than 2700 instead of September 2024 around 2800.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
Morning Bounce Above 4400 Sustainable?S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for WED. 08/23 In our trading plans published Thu. 08/17, we wrote: "The index is approaching the 4400 level this morning. If it breaks down, then 4385 will be the next support". The index closed below that level on Thursday, and took down multiple support levels since then, and our models' bias has turned outright bearish on Friday, and will remain bearish while the daily close is below 4400. While the index is between 4400 and 4350, expect sideways consolidation and a choppy market. It remains to be seen if this morning's surge above 4400 will be convincing enough for our models to abandon the bearish bias by tomorrow. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4430, 4419, 4401, or 4392 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4425, 4416, 4405, 4399, or 4388 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit short exits on a break above 4407. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 12:01pm EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings, #usdebt, #bankdowngrades
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
Remaining on course if Wednesday is redHere is the best estimate of where we could be now. Minor 4 lasted a little longer than forecasted but managed the moves up and down in line with historical models. It is possible Minute waves 1 and 2 inside of Minor wave 5 have already completed. If that is the case this is the plan for Minute wave 3. I have kept the Intermediate wave 5 levels to the far right, and the Minor wave 5 levels to the far left. The levels to watch for Minute wave 3 are in the middle as this is the short-term target. Minute wave 4 is a pure estimate with zero supporting data for its location at the moment. The hour markers at the top of the chart is the target zone for Minor wave 5 to finish between (which also ends Intermediate wave 5). Minute wave 3 could last 5-12 hours based on all models. The tighter models have it around 6-8 hours. The movement targets based on most specific historical data sets are in pink. The median and maximum are around 4330 for the bottom. Minimum move is below 4356. The light blue models are slightly less specific historical data with quartile estimates at 4372.61, 4654.45, and 3rd quartile at 4326.75. The broadest dataset has quartile bottoms at 4370.16, median at 4352.58, and the third quartile was near 4328. THIS WEEK If this all plays out, it looks like tomorrow is a down day with the Minute wave 4 reprieve to occur briefly on Thursday before more red ink through the end of Thursday and possibly into Friday. The initial target low around 4240 seems further out of reach if the end of wave 3 is only at 4330. A drop to 4330 tomorrow would only be a 1.3% loss. Depending on the cause, if it happens, the market could go further. For now I will raise the final Intermediate wave 3 bottom up toward 4395 but still likely to occur midday Friday. THEORY BUSTERS A rise above 4400 tomorrow would alter the path and analysis. A rise above 4418.59 would place use back in Minor wave 4 upward or somewhere completely different.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
Is SPY ETF set for down day tomorrow?My SPY analysis is pretty much aligned with the CBOE:SPX index Here is the best estimate of where we could be now. Minor 4 lasted a little longer than forecasted but managed the moves up and down in line with historical models. It is possible Minute waves 1 and 2 inside of Minor wave 5 have already completed. If that is the case this is the plan for Minute wave 3. I have kept the Intermediate wave 5 levels to the far right, and the Minor wave 5 levels to the far left. The levels to watch for Minute wave 3 are in the middle as this is the short-term target. Minute wave 4 is a pure estimate with zero supporting data for its location at the moment. The hour markers at the top of the chart are the target zone for Minor wave 5 to finish between (which also ends Intermediate wave 5). Minute wave 3 could last 5-12 hours based on all models. The tighter models have it around 6-8 hours. The movement targets based on most specific historical data sets are in pink. The median and maximum are around 433 for the bottom. Minimum move is below 435.20. The light blue models are slightly less specific historical data with quartile estimates at 436.71, 435, and 3rd quartile at 432.5. The broadest dataset has quartile bottoms at 436.48, median at 434.83, and the third quartile was near 432.60. THIS WEEK If this all plays out, it looks like tomorrow is a down day with the Minute wave 4 reprieve to occur briefly on Thursday before more red ink through the end of Thursday and possibly into Friday. The initial target low around 424.19 seems further out of reach if the end of wave 3 is only at 433. A drop to 433 tomorrow would only be a 1.16% loss. A steeper loss in the main index could see the AMEX:SPY low in the 432.80 region. Depending on the cause, if it happens, the market could go lower tomorrow. For now, I will raise the final Intermediate wave 3 bottom up toward 429 but still likely to occur midday Friday. THEORY BUSTERS A rise above 439.48 tomorrow would alter the path and analysis. A rise above 441.18 would place us back in Minor wave 4 upward or somewhere completely different.
AMEX:SPYShort
by StockSignaler
3
$ES_F Long, possible dead cat bounce?The market has transitioned back into a more mean-rev phase so I dont expect bull rallies to survive for long. Also shorts are likely to be more profitable since trend following indi's have printed bearish. But use this long to capitalize on a dead cat bounce that could happen. Im not sure that it'll go up to close the gap at 4590. Trades: Trade 1 Long 4400, sl 4370, tp 4460, 4470 (close). moderate conviction. im more confident of getting initial negative returns upon entry given the lack of bull divs and exhaustion from indis. but i do have a higher conviction of hitting the tp targets. ~4420 is another bull entry but expect wicks to 4400. Trade 2 Short 4465, sl 4500, tp 4370, 4300, 4200 low conviction, has a high likelihood of getting stopped out. wouldn't recommend it unless there's a severe bear reaction with some volume, which you'd should market in. but place a tight sl. Trade 3 short 4545, sl 4620, tp 4470, 4370. moderate/high conviction, assuming the short term bear trend is intact. this trade expects negative returns once entered but covers the case of the gap being covered.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by linebands